Talking about Revolutions...By Erwin Busselot

Dobro jutro!!! • Introduction

• Revolutions … classic, accident & digital

• I used to be ... Now I am!

• Examples

• Advice from a revolutionary...

The French Revolution ... A CLASSIC

The Belgian Revolution ... An accident!

The DIGITAL Revolution ... Revolutionary Times again!

Nicholas Negroponte:

‘Everything that can be digital, will be digital’

From ‘Being Digital’ 1995

Benny Landa:

‘... And PRINTING is no exception!’

IPEX 1998

Recent projections for industry change

Source: Frank Romano

Source: Frank Romano

Recent projections for industry change

Consumer

Print Service Provider

Content OwnersMarketing Agencies

ICT Services

Advertising OfficesDesign Bureau

Logistic PartnersPUSH (Collateral)

Consumer is exposed to (printed) material, paid for or

subsidized by 3rd parties

PULL (Product)Consumer request for (printed)

matter by means of a subscription, book shops, internet, …

Corporation Publisher

Packaging, Brochures, Catalogues, Direct Mail, Flyers, Posters, Manuals, Newsletters,

…

Newspapers, Encyclopedia, Newsletters, School Books,

Comics, Magazines, …

The Print Communication Ecosystem

I used to be ...

... a commercial

printer

Now I am ...

... a graphic

communications specialist who helps his customers solve marketing problems

Digital Era: PUSH

The Rise of Permission Marketing

Digital Era: PULL

Multi Channel Campaigns Drive Results

• Marketers report an average improvement of 35% for multi channel campaigns (using print, e-mail, and web landing pages) over single channel print-only campaigns.

• Personalization brings even more improvement to campaign performance. Marketers reported an average improvement of close to 50% for personalized multi channel campaigns over static print-only campaigns.

Source:  Print in the Mix, InfoTrends Study Provides Insight into Multi-Channel Communications Opportunity, January 9, 2009. 

The role of WF to couple DP and W2P

Consumer

Print Service Provider

Content OwnersMarketing Agencies

ICT Services

Advertising OfficesDesign Bureau

Logistic PartnersPUSH (Collateral)

Consumer is exposed to (printed) material, paid for or

subsidized by 3rd parties

PULL (Product)Consumer request for (printed)

matter by means of a subscription, book shops, internet, …

Corporation Publisher

Packaging, Brochures, Catalogues, Direct Mail, Flyers, Posters, Manuals, Newsletters,

…

Newspapers, Encyclopedia, Newsletters, School Books,

Comics, Magazines, …

The Print Communication Ecosystem

I used to be ...

... a book printer

Now I am ...

... a publishing supply chain

expert, demand forecaster, high speed service provider, channel captain, cash flow

and inventory turnover evangelist

20022003

20042005

20062007

20082009

0

100,000

200,000

300,000

400,000

500,000

600,000

700,000

800,000

764,448

Source: http://www.bowker.com/index.php/press-releases/616-bowker-reports-traditional-us-book-production-flat-in-2009

Explosion of new titles

Print production shifting to digital

Non-TraditionalTraditional

288,355

100,000

10,000

1,000

100

No.

Boo

k U

nits

Prin

ted

Neverin Print

Nth Editions

Minimum Offset

Economic Production

Quantity

Rare books,Books backinto print

Review copies,comps,

(galleys),catalogs

Firstedition

Secondedition

Self Publishing

Areas in Blue are appropriate for OffsetAreas in Yellow are opportunities to incorporate Digital

Digital Inkjet Raises the Bar

Short

Runs

Typical book life cycle

Digital printing can improve supply chain efficiency

Pre-Production Active Editions Backlist / Reprints Out of Print

2015

Growth in digital print

TODAY

Most books print offset

OFFSETUnit volume CAGR

2010-2015-4.6%

DIGITALUnit volume CAGR

2010-2015+28.9%

e-BOOKS30% of

total bookssold

Source: InterQuest, 2010

Co-existence of printed books and e-books

e-Books: the 3 B’s: bathroom-bedroom-beach

e-Books have … conquered the beach!!!

SalesThe opportunity

RETAIL—50%

RETURN & CARRYING—15%

PRODUCTION—15%

ROYALTIES—10%

SHIPPING—5%

SalesThe opportunity

RETAIL—50%

RETURN & CARRYING—15%

PRODUCTION—15%

ROYALTIES—10%

SHIPPING—5%

Reduce costs through greater efficiencies

The 80/20 rule

80%of publisher revenues

[ 20% of titles ] [ 80% of titles ]

Manage inventory with digitally printed short runs

Ask any weatherman—forecasting isn’t easy

DemandPotential returns

E-BooksAdvance sales

Digital short-run printing minimizes riskin all 3 inventory scenarios

The book worked The book bombed Harry Potter

A B C

Forecast: 100,000 unitsPrinting: 100,000 unitsUnit Cost: € 0.50Initial Sale: 80,000 unitsReprint: 25,000 unitsTotal Sale: 110,000 unitsReturns: 27,000 unitsYear-end Inventory: 42,000 unitsExcess Inventory: 25,000 units

Forecast: 100,000 unitsPrinting: 100,000 unitsUnit Cost: € 0.50Initial Sale: 40,000 unitsReprint: noneTotal Sale: 40,000 unitsReturns: 10,000 unitsYear-end Inventory: 70,000 unitsExcess Inventory: 70,000 units

Forecast: 14.0m unitsPrinting: 12.0m unitsUnit Cost: € 2.20Initial Sale: 12.0 millionReprint: 100k to 400kTotal Sale: 13.5m unitsReturns: 1.6m unitsYear-end Inventory: 1.9m unitsExcess Inventory: 1.0m units

Significant inventory savings

Move from PRINT then SELL to SELL and the PRINT!!!

O RISK!!!

Being Direct … also with books

Some Advice• #1 Business Challenge in the 21st Century …

• … Innovation and Growth!!!

Ansoff Matrix

1

2

3

4

Existing

Existing

New

New

Customers

Applications

Some Advice• #1 Business Challenge in the 21st Century …

• … Innovation and Growth!!!

• People always OVERestimate in the short run …• … But UNDERestimate in the long run !!! (hype cycle)

The Hype Cycle & DPInterest

In New technology

TimeTechnology

TriggerPeak ofInflated

Expectations

Through OfDisillusionement

Slope OfEnlightenment

Plateau OfProductivity

IPEX 1993

Drupa 1995

Drupa 2000

IPEX 2002

Drupa 2004

IPEX 2006

Drupa 2008

Some Advice• #1 Business Challenge in the 21st Century …

• … Innovation and Growth!!!

• People always OVERestimate in the short run …• … But UNDERestimate in the long run !!! (hype cycle)

• In order to succeed …• … Your desire for success should be greater than ….

Your fear of failure !!! (Bill Cosby)

-U-4-Ur-A10-tion

I hope I was able to …