Talented Young Workers and the Prospects for Prosperity Joe Cortright.

Talented Young Workers and the Prospects for ProsperityJoe Cortright

RoadmapWhy the young & restless matterComing shift in US labor marketsLocation trendsThe college-educatedNeighborhood effectsBuilding a distinctive strategy

Research AgendaDetailed Quantitative AnalysisDemographics, migration, and location of 25-34 year-olds in 1990 and 2000Focus on Metro AreasIn-Depth Qualitative AnalysisFocus groups with young workers in participating citiesRecent movers, college plus education

A Critical DemographicAs a group, 25 to 34 year-olds are:Well-EducatedHighly MobileHard-WorkingAdaptableCheap (Relative to Older Workers)= H.R.s Dream Demographic

Highest Labor Force Participation

#f1

3.3

2.7

2.4

5.6

5.2

3.8

2.5

2

1.8

1.1

0.4

&L&"Copperplate Gothic Light,Regular"&16Young and Restless

&L[&F:&A]&CPrepared by J. Cortright, Impresa&R&D

AgeSource: Bureau of Labor Statistics

Young Adults Most Likely to Move Across State LinesProbability of an Interstate Move, 2002 to 2003, by Age (Percent)

#f2

0.05255000370.0888603884

0.03505214370.0565299092

0.02641349660.0376845377

0.01827109970.0217824671

0.01060584560.0102040816



Less than a 4 Year Degree

Four-Year Degree or More

Age GroupSource: Current Population Survey, 2004

College Educated 25-34s Most Likely to Move Percent of Persons Moving Across State Lines 2003-2004

#f3

39

63

76

86.7

93.1

94.3

93.8

93

91.5

88.2

79.4

68.5

51.2

32.7

18

7.8




Labor Force Participation Peaks in Early 30sLabor Force Participation Rate (Percent) for White, Non-Hispanic Men, 2002

#f5

0.105

0.173

0.132

0.101

0.065



Age GroupSource: Global Entrepreneurship Monitor

Entrepreneurship Highest Among 25-34 Year OldsTotal Entrepreneurial Activity (TEA) Measure

#f6

9634

97.536

96.445

95.265.5

94.273.6

93.276.3

93.180.5

9380



Source: Impresa calculations from Census data

Women's Labor Force Participation Close To Men'sLabor Force Participation Rate (Percent) 25 to 34 Year Olds

lfpr

Labor Force Participation Rates

Source: Monthly Labor Review, February 2004

16-1716.539

18-1918.563

20-2120.576

22-242386.7

25-292793.1

30-343294.3

35-393793.8

40-444293

45-494791.5

50-545288.2

55-595779.4

60-6160.568.5

62-646351.2

65-696732.7

70-747218

75+797.8

MaleFemale

19509634

196097.536

197096.445

198095.265.5

199094.273.6

199893.276.3

201593.180.5

20259380

data

Labor Force Participation Rates, Non-Hispanic White Men, 2002

Table 4 from toosi, 2004 Monthly Labor Review

HispanicNWH

16 and 17 .....29.8399.34.73.61.1

18 and 19 .....66.2633.25.13.41.7

20 and 21 .....79.8763.85.73.32.4

22 to 24 ......90.286.73.58.64.73.9

25 to 29 ......92.893.10.213.37.65.8

30 to 34 ......94.194.30.314.98.46.4

35 to 39 ......92.593.81.310.59.7.8

40 to 44 ......91.7931.311.310.4.8

45 to 49 ......87.691.53.96.910.43.5

50 to 54 ......84.488.23.76.19.23.1

55 to 59 ......75.979.43.53.97.63.8

60 and 61 .....65.568.531.32.51.2

62 to 64 ......48.951.22.21.73.31.6

65 to 69 ......29.832.72.81.94.82.9

70 to 74 ......16.4181.61.64.22.6

75 and older ..7.17.80.72.76.94.2

16 and 1739

18 and 1963

20 and 2176

22 to 2486.7

25 to 2993.1

30 to 3494.3

35 to 3993.8

40 to 4493

45 to 4991.5

50 to 5488.2

55 to 5979.4

60 and 6168.5

62 to 6451.2

65 to 6932.7

70 to 7418

75 and older ..7.8

Probability of an Interstate Move, by Age 2002-2003

1 to 42.53.3

5 to 972.7

10 to 1914.52.4

20 to 24225.6

25 to 29275.2

30 to 34323.8

35 to 44402.5

45 to 54502

55 to 64601.8

65 to 84751.1

85 or older900.4

http://www.bls.gov/opub/mlr/2004/02/art3full.pdf

Percent Change in Labor Force by Age

1982-19921992-20022002-2012

All Ages16.2%11.3%12.0%

16 to 24-12.2%3.7%9.0%

22 to 5429.7%9.2%5.1%

55 and older-0.2%34.4%14.3%

entre

Entrepreneurship by Age, From GEM

Page

18 to 2425 to 3435 to 4445 to 5455 to 64Total

TotalEntrepreneurialActivity10.50%17.30%13.20%10.10%6.50%12.00%

Opportunity-basedEntrepreneurialActivity7.70%12.70%10.90%7.60%4.10%9.00%

Necessity-basedEntrepreneurialActivity1.90%2.60%1.20%1.50%1.20%1.70%

nces

Source: Gerald & Hussar, 2003

NCES:http://nces.ed.gov/programs/projections/tables/table_27.asp

Table 27. Bachelor's degrees, by sex of recipient, with projections: 198788 to 201213

TotalMenWomen

00

1988.994,829477,203517,62652.03%

1989.1,018,755483,346535,40952.56%

1990.1,051,344491,696559,64853.23%

1991.1,094,538504,045590,49353.95%

1992.1,136,553520,811615,74254.18%

1993.1,165,178532,881632,29754.27%

1994.1,169,275532,422636,85354.47%

1995.1,160,134526,131634,00354.65%

1996.1,164,792522,454642,33855.15%

1997.1,172,879520,515652,36455.62%

1998.1,184,406519,956664,45056.10%

1999.1,200,303518,746681,55756.78%

2000.1,237,875530,367707,50857.16%

2001.1,244,171531,840712,33157.25%

Middle alternative projections

2002.1,294,000545,000749,00057.88%

2003.1,311,000548,000763,00058.20%

2004.1,333,000559,000774,00058.06%

2005.1,352,000578,000774,00057.25%

2006.1,397,000584,000813,00058.20%

2007.1,413,000585,000828,00058.60%

2008.1,425,000589,000836,00058.67%

2009.1,441,000594,000847,00058.78%

2010.1,456,000598,000858,00058.93%

2011.1,469,000603,000866,00058.95%

2012.1,488,000610,000878,00059.01%

2013.1,509,000616,000893,00059.18%

Low alternative projections

2002.1,281,000539,000742,00057.92%

2003.1,287,000538,000749,00058.20%

2004.1,316,000552,000764,00058.05%

2005.1,319,000564,000755,00057.24%

2006.1,384,000579,000805,00058.16%

2007.1,400,000580,000820,00058.57%

2008.1,411,000584,000827,00058.61%

2009.1,427,000588,000839,00058.79%

2010.1,442,000592,000850,00058.95%

2011.1,455,000597,000858,00058.97%

2012.1,473,000604,000869,00059.00%

2013.1,493,000609,000884,00059.21%

.

High alternative projections

000

2002.1,317,000554,000763,00057.93%

2003.1,328,000555,000773,00058.21%

2004.1,366,000573,000793,00058.05%

2005.1,366,000584,000782,00057.25%

2006.1,411,000590,000821,00058.19%

2007.1,428,000591,000837,00058.61%

2008.1,439,000595,000844,00058.65%

2009.1,456,000600,000856,00058.79%

2010.1,471,000604,000867,00058.94%

2011.1,484,000609,000875,00058.96%

2012.1,503,000616,000887,00059.02%

2013.1,509,000616,000893,00059.18%

NOTE: Some data have been revised from previously published figures. Detail may not sum to totals because of rounding. Mean absolute percentage errors of

selected education statistics can be found in table A2, appendix A.

SOURCE: U.S. Department of Education, National Center for Education Statistics, Integrated Postsecondary Education Data System, Completions Survey" (IPEDS-C),

various years, and Earned Degrees Conferred Model. (This table was prepared July 2003.)

&L&"Garamond,Italic"Reference Figures and Tables

&L&"Garamond,Italic"&11 76

cps2004

Table with row headers in column A and column headers in row 5.

Table 6. General Mobility of Persons 25 Years and Over, by Region, Age, and Educational Attainment: 2004

(Numbers in thousands.)

http://www.census.gov/population/www/socdemo/migrate/cps2004.html

United StatesTotalNon-moverSame countyDifferent county, same stateDifferent state, same divisionDifferent division, same regionDifferent regionAbroad

25+ years

186,877165,49212,0584,2822,1515621,575756

11,74710,532732188941946135

15,99813,9911,311305193438868

59,81053,5223,7621,270618122369148

47,57241,9623,1471,20959516740191

33,76629,5372,165943422131402166

17,98315,94894336722779270149

25 to 29 years

19,00813,7593,0201,0305051273342331,1996.3%

87366412624175334596.8%

1,6791,210320704010921804.8%Less than a 4 Year DegreeFour-Year Degree or More

5,5574,1268942821222769372554.6%25 to 295.3%8.9%

5,4404,0427872931703683293185.8%71213,5495.3%30 to 343.5%5.7%

4,3583,04572129411124105592996.9%4855,4588.9%35 to 442.6%3.8%

1,100673173684424665218616.9%45 to 641.8%2.2%

30 to 34 years65 or older1.1%1.0%

20,19316,3152,2537813391002611448444.2%2,04339,2015.2%

9577831249111425414.3%1001,8305.5%

1,5601,234204632311817593.8%1393,2394.3%

5,6874,616696209761459181672.9%42211,2443.8%

5,6044,5626112141142360202173.9%53511,0444.8%48413,8083.5%

4,4003,568429200732467392034.6%5028,7585.7%3616,3865.7%

1,9861,55219086412863261588.0%3443,08611.1%

35 to 44 years

43,57337,8623,3141,1025301264142261,2963.0%

1,8511,54018362132843663.6%

3,3822,7754157942936261133.3%

13,73911,9811,0893271762192523412.5%

11,73210,2308703421383593252912.5%81130,7042.6%

8,8217,80551519810441119393033.4%48512,8703.8%

4,0493,53124294581766411824.5%

45 to 64 years

69,44364,4132,6581,0316311464291351,3411.9%

3,2342,936167523671323792.4%

4,8704,44727753566284941.9%

22,34620,8118463201914298383691.7%

18,42517,06770630315251134143511.9%89348,8751.8%

12,39311,5184012031193490282712.2%44820,5672.2%

8,1747,63526110178566281772.2%

65+ years

34,65933,14381333814663138193661.1%

4,8324,609132411831811501.0%

4,5074,32595423277-461.0%

12,48211,98923613253185221251.0%

6,3716,062173572222313781.2%29928,1921.1%

3,7943,601994716822-461.2%666,4681.0%

2,6742,55877185582200.7%

Footnotes:

- represents zero or rounds to zero

Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Current Population Survey, 2004 Annual Social and Economic Supplement

Internet Release Date: June 23, 2005

Page &P

Young Adults Move Most

#f1

3.3

2.7

2.4

5.6

5.2

3.8

2.5

2

1.8

1.1

0.4





#f2

0.05255000370.0888603884

0.03505214370.0565299092

0.02641349660.0376845377

0.01827109970.0217824671

0.01060584560.0102040816







#f3

39

63

76

86.7

93.1

94.3

93.8

93

91.5

88.2

79.4

68.5

51.2

32.7

18

7.8





#f5

0.105

0.173

0.132

0.101

0.065





#f6

9634

97.536

96.445

95.265.5

94.273.6

93.276.3

93.180.5

9380





lfpr



16-1716.539

18-1918.563

20-2120.576

22-242386.7

25-292793.1

30-343294.3

35-393793.8

40-444293

45-494791.5

50-545288.2

55-595779.4

60-6160.568.5

62-646351.2

65-696732.7

70-747218

75+797.8

MaleFemale

19509634

196097.536

197096.445

198095.265.5

199094.273.6

199893.276.3

201593.180.5

20259380

data



HispanicNWH

16 and 17 .....29.8399.34.73.61.1

18 and 19 .....66.2633.25.13.41.7

20 and 21 .....79.8763.85.73.32.4

22 to 24 ......90.286.73.58.64.73.9

25 to 29 ......92.893.10.213.37.65.8

30 to 34 ......94.194.30.314.98.46.4

35 to 39 ......92.593.81.310.59.7.8

40 to 44 ......91.7931.311.310.4.8

45 to 49 ......87.691.53.96.910.43.5

50 to 54 ......84.488.23.76.19.23.1

55 to 59 ......75.979.43.53.97.63.8

60 and 61 .....65.568.531.32.51.2

62 to 64 ......48.951.22.21.73.31.6

65 to 69 ......29.832.72.81.94.82.9

70 to 74 ......16.4181.61.64.22.6

75 and older ..7.17.80.72.76.94.2

16 and 1739

18 and 1963

20 and 2176

22 to 2486.7

25 to 2993.1

30 to 3494.3

35 to 3993.8

40 to 4493

45 to 4991.5

50 to 5488.2

55 to 5979.4

60 and 6168.5

62 to 6451.2

65 to 6932.7

70 to 7418

75 and older ..7.8


1 to 42.53.3

5 to 972.7

10 to 1914.52.4

20 to 24225.6

25 to 29275.2

30 to 34323.8

35 to 44402.5

45 to 54502

55 to 64601.8

65 to 84751.1

85 or older900.4



1982-19921992-20022002-2012

All Ages16.2%11.3%12.0%

16 to 24-12.2%3.7%9.0%

22 to 5429.7%9.2%5.1%

55 and older-0.2%34.4%14.3%

entre


Page





nces




TotalMenWomen

00

1988.994,829477,203517,62652.03%

1989.1,018,755483,346535,40952.56%

1990.1,051,344491,696559,64853.23%

1991.1,094,538504,045590,49353.95%

1992.1,136,553520,811615,74254.18%

1993.1,165,178532,881632,29754.27%

1994.1,169,275532,422636,85354.47%

1995.1,160,134526,131634,00354.65%

1996.1,164,792522,454642,33855.15%

1997.1,172,879520,515652,36455.62%

1998.1,184,406519,956664,45056.10%

1999.1,200,303518,746681,55756.78%

2000.1,237,875530,367707,50857.16%

2001.1,244,171531,840712,33157.25%


2002.1,294,000545,000749,00057.88%

2003.1,311,000548,000763,00058.20%

2004.1,333,000559,000774,00058.06%

2005.1,352,000578,000774,00057.25%

2006.1,397,000584,000813,00058.20%

2007.1,413,000585,000828,00058.60%

2008.1,425,000589,000836,00058.67%

2009.1,441,000594,000847,00058.78%

2010.1,456,000598,000858,00058.93%

2011.1,469,000603,000866,00058.95%

2012.1,488,000610,000878,00059.01%

2013.1,509,000616,000893,00059.18%


2002.1,281,000539,000742,00057.92%

2003.1,287,000538,000749,00058.20%

2004.1,316,000552,000764,00058.05%

2005.1,319,000564,000755,00057.24%

2006.1,384,000579,000805,00058.16%

2007.1,400,000580,000820,00058.57%

2008.1,411,000584,000827,00058.61%

2009.1,427,000588,000839,00058.79%

2010.1,442,000592,000850,00058.95%

2011.1,455,000597,000858,00058.97%

2012.1,473,000604,000869,00059.00%

2013.1,493,000609,000884,00059.21%

.


000

2002.1,317,000554,000763,00057.93%

2003.1,328,000555,000773,00058.21%

2004.1,366,000573,000793,00058.05%

2005.1,366,000584,000782,00057.25%

2006.1,411,000590,000821,00058.19%

2007.1,428,000591,000837,00058.61%

2008.1,439,000595,000844,00058.65%

2009.1,456,000600,000856,00058.79%

2010.1,471,000604,000867,00058.94%

2011.1,484,000609,000875,00058.96%

2012.1,503,000616,000887,00059.02%

2013.1,509,000616,000893,00059.18%







cps2004






25+ years

186,877165,49212,0584,2822,1515621,575756

11,74710,532732188941946135

15,99813,9911,311305193438868

59,81053,5223,7621,270618122369148

47,57241,9623,1471,20959516740191

33,76629,5372,165943422131402166

17,98315,94894336722779270149

25 to 29 years

19,00813,7593,0201,0305051273342331,1996.3%

87366412624175334596.8%


5,5574,1268942821222769372554.6%25 to 295.3%8.9%

5,4404,0427872931703683293185.8%71213,5495.3%30 to 343.5%5.7%

4,3583,04572129411124105592996.9%4855,4588.9%35 to 442.6%3.8%

1,100673173684424665218616.9%45 to 641.8%2.2%


20,19316,3152,2537813391002611448444.2%2,04339,2015.2%

9577831249111425414.3%1001,8305.5%

1,5601,234204632311817593.8%1393,2394.3%

5,6874,616696209761459181672.9%42211,2443.8%

5,6044,5626112141142360202173.9%53511,0444.8%48413,8083.5%

4,4003,568429200732467392034.6%5028,7585.7%3616,3865.7%

1,9861,55219086412863261588.0%3443,08611.1%

35 to 44 years

43,57337,8623,3141,1025301264142261,2963.0%

1,8511,54018362132843663.6%

3,3822,7754157942936261133.3%

13,73911,9811,0893271762192523412.5%

11,73210,2308703421383593252912.5%81130,7042.6%

8,8217,80551519810441119393033.4%48512,8703.8%

4,0493,53124294581766411824.5%

45 to 64 years

69,44364,4132,6581,0316311464291351,3411.9%

3,2342,936167523671323792.4%

4,8704,44727753566284941.9%

22,34620,8118463201914298383691.7%

18,42517,06770630315251134143511.9%89348,8751.8%

12,39311,5184012031193490282712.2%44820,5672.2%

8,1747,63526110178566281772.2%

65+ years

34,65933,14381333814663138193661.1%

4,8324,609132411831811501.0%

4,5074,32595423277-461.0%

12,48211,98923613253185221251.0%

6,3716,062173572222313781.2%29928,1921.1%

3,7943,601994716822-461.2%666,4681.0%

2,6742,55877185582200.7%

Footnotes:




Page &P

Best Educated Move Most

#f1

3.3

2.7

2.4

5.6

5.2

3.8

2.5

2

1.8

1.1

0.4





#f2

0.05255000370.0888603884

0.03505214370.0565299092

0.02641349660.0376845377

0.01827109970.0217824671

0.01060584560.0102040816







#f3

39

63

76

86.7

93.1

94.3

93.8

93

91.5

88.2

79.4

68.5

51.2

32.7

18

7.8





#f5

0.105

0.173

0.132

0.101

0.065





#f6

9634

97.536

96.445

95.265.5

94.273.6

93.276.3

93.180.5

9380





lfpr



16-1716.539

18-1918.563

20-2120.576

22-242386.7

25-292793.1

30-343294.3

35-393793.8

40-444293

45-494791.5

50-545288.2

55-595779.4

60-6160.568.5

62-646351.2

65-696732.7

70-747218

75+797.8

MaleFemale

19509634

196097.536

197096.445

198095.265.5

199094.273.6

199893.276.3

201593.180.5

20259380

data



HispanicNWH

16 and 17 .....29.8399.34.73.61.1

18 and 19 .....66.2633.25.13.41.7

20 and 21 .....79.8763.85.73.32.4

22 to 24 ......90.286.73.58.64.73.9

25 to 29 ......92.893.10.213.37.65.8

30 to 34 ......94.194.30.314.98.46.4

35 to 39 ......92.593.81.310.59.7.8

40 to 44 ......91.7931.311.310.4.8

45 to 49 ......87.691.53.96.910.43.5

50 to 54 ......84.488.23.76.19.23.1

55 to 59 ......75.979.43.53.97.63.8

60 and 61 .....65.568.531.32.51.2

62 to 64 ......48.951.22.21.73.31.6

65 to 69 ......29.832.72.81.94.82.9

70 to 74 ......16.4181.61.64.22.6

75 and older ..7.17.80.72.76.94.2

16 and 1739

18 and 1963

20 and 2176

22 to 2486.7

25 to 2993.1

30 to 3494.3

35 to 3993.8

40 to 4493

45 to 4991.5

50 to 5488.2

55 to 5979.4

60 and 6168.5

62 to 6451.2

65 to 6932.7

70 to 7418

75 and older ..7.8


1 to 42.53.3

5 to 972.7

10 to 1914.52.4

20 to 24225.6

25 to 29275.2

30 to 34323.8

35 to 44402.5

45 to 54502

55 to 64601.8

65 to 84751.1

85 or older900.4



1982-19921992-20022002-2012

All Ages16.2%11.3%12.0%

16 to 24-12.2%3.7%9.0%

22 to 5429.7%9.2%5.1%

55 and older-0.2%34.4%14.3%

entre


Page





nces




TotalMenWomen

00

1988.994,829477,203517,62652.03%

1989.1,018,755483,346535,40952.56%

1990.1,051,344491,696559,64853.23%

1991.1,094,538504,045590,49353.95%

1992.1,136,553520,811615,74254.18%

1993.1,165,178532,881632,29754.27%

1994.1,169,275532,422636,85354.47%

1995.1,160,134526,131634,00354.65%

1996.1,164,792522,454642,33855.15%

1997.1,172,879520,515652,36455.62%

1998.1,184,406519,956664,45056.10%

1999.1,200,303518,746681,55756.78%

2000.1,237,875530,367707,50857.16%

2001.1,244,171531,840712,33157.25%


2002.1,294,000545,000749,00057.88%

2003.1,311,000548,000763,00058.20%

2004.1,333,000559,000774,00058.06%

2005.1,352,000578,000774,00057.25%

2006.1,397,000584,000813,00058.20%

2007.1,413,000585,000828,00058.60%

2008.1,425,000589,000836,00058.67%

2009.1,441,000594,000847,00058.78%

2010.1,456,000598,000858,00058.93%

2011.1,469,000603,000866,00058.95%

2012.1,488,000610,000878,00059.01%

2013.1,509,000616,000893,00059.18%


2002.1,281,000539,000742,00057.92%

2003.1,287,000538,000749,00058.20%

2004.1,316,000552,000764,00058.05%

2005.1,319,000564,000755,00057.24%

2006.1,384,000579,000805,00058.16%

2007.1,400,000580,000820,00058.57%

2008.1,411,000584,000827,00058.61%

2009.1,427,000588,000839,00058.79%

2010.1,442,000592,000850,00058.95%

2011.1,455,000597,000858,00058.97%

2012.1,473,000604,000869,00059.00%

2013.1,493,000609,000884,00059.21%

.


000

2002.1,317,000554,000763,00057.93%

2003.1,328,000555,000773,00058.21%

2004.1,366,000573,000793,00058.05%

2005.1,366,000584,000782,00057.25%

2006.1,411,000590,000821,00058.19%

2007.1,428,000591,000837,00058.61%

2008.1,439,000595,000844,00058.65%

2009.1,456,000600,000856,00058.79%

2010.1,471,000604,000867,00058.94%

2011.1,484,000609,000875,00058.96%

2012.1,503,000616,000887,00059.02%

2013.1,509,000616,000893,00059.18%







cps2004






25+ years

186,877165,49212,0584,2822,1515621,575756

11,74710,532732188941946135

15,99813,9911,311305193438868

59,81053,5223,7621,270618122369148

47,57241,9623,1471,20959516740191

33,76629,5372,165943422131402166

17,98315,94894336722779270149

25 to 29 years

19,00813,7593,0201,0305051273342331,1996.3%

87366412624175334596.8%


5,5574,1268942821222769372554.6%25 to 295.3%8.9%

5,4404,0427872931703683293185.8%71213,5495.3%30 to 343.5%5.7%

4,3583,04572129411124105592996.9%4855,4588.9%35 to 442.6%3.8%

1,100673173684424665218616.9%45 to 641.8%2.2%


20,19316,3152,2537813391002611448444.2%2,04339,2015.2%

9577831249111425414.3%1001,8305.5%

1,5601,234204632311817593.8%1393,2394.3%

5,6874,616696209761459181672.9%42211,2443.8%

5,6044,5626112141142360202173.9%53511,0444.8%48413,8083.5%

4,4003,568429200732467392034.6%5028,7585.7%3616,3865.7%

1,9861,55219086412863261588.0%3443,08611.1%

35 to 44 years

43,57337,8623,3141,1025301264142261,2963.0%

1,8511,54018362132843663.6%

3,3822,7754157942936261133.3%

13,73911,9811,0893271762192523412.5%

11,73210,2308703421383593252912.5%81130,7042.6%

8,8217,80551519810441119393033.4%48512,8703.8%

4,0493,53124294581766411824.5%

45 to 64 years

69,44364,4132,6581,0316311464291351,3411.9%

3,2342,936167523671323792.4%

4,8704,44727753566284941.9%

22,34620,8118463201914298383691.7%

18,42517,06770630315251134143511.9%89348,8751.8%

12,39311,5184012031193490282712.2%44820,5672.2%

8,1747,63526110178566281772.2%

65+ years

34,65933,14381333814663138193661.1%

4,8324,609132411831811501.0%

4,5074,32595423277-461.0%

12,48211,98923613253185221251.0%

6,3716,062173572222313781.2%29928,1921.1%

3,7943,601994716822-461.2%666,4681.0%

2,6742,55877185582200.7%

Footnotes:




Page &P

Talented Young Adults Seek PlaceThinking about how you will look for and choose your next job, which of the following statements best reflects your opinion? (Asked of 1,000 25-34 year old college graduates)Look for the best job I can find. The place where it located is pretty much a secondary consideration. Look for a job in a place that I would like to live

Most Likely to Start a Business

#f1

3.3

2.7

2.4

5.6

5.2

3.8

2.5

2

1.8

1.1

0.4





#f2

0.05255000370.0888603884

0.03505214370.0565299092

0.02641349660.0376845377

0.01827109970.0217824671

0.01060584560.0102040816







#f3

39

63

76

86.7

93.1

94.3

93.8

93

91.5

88.2

79.4

68.5

51.2

32.7

18

7.8





#f5

0.105

0.173

0.132

0.101

0.065





#f6

9634

97.536

96.445

95.265.5

94.273.6

93.276.3

93.180.5

9380





lfpr



16-1716.539

18-1918.563

20-2120.576

22-242386.7

25-292793.1

30-343294.3

35-393793.8

40-444293

45-494791.5

50-545288.2

55-595779.4

60-6160.568.5

62-646351.2

65-696732.7

70-747218

75+797.8

MaleFemale

19509634

196097.536

197096.445

198095.265.5

199094.273.6

199893.276.3

201593.180.5

20259380

data



HispanicNWH

16 and 17 .....29.8399.34.73.61.1

18 and 19 .....66.2633.25.13.41.7

20 and 21 .....79.8763.85.73.32.4

22 to 24 ......90.286.73.58.64.73.9

25 to 29 ......92.893.10.213.37.65.8

30 to 34 ......94.194.30.314.98.46.4

35 to 39 ......92.593.81.310.59.7.8

40 to 44 ......91.7931.311.310.4.8

45 to 49 ......87.691.53.96.910.43.5

50 to 54 ......84.488.23.76.19.23.1

55 to 59 ......75.979.43.53.97.63.8

60 and 61 .....65.568.531.32.51.2

62 to 64 ......48.951.22.21.73.31.6

65 to 69 ......29.832.72.81.94.82.9

70 to 74 ......16.4181.61.64.22.6

75 and older ..7.17.80.72.76.94.2

16 and 1739

18 and 1963

20 and 2176

22 to 2486.7

25 to 2993.1

30 to 3494.3

35 to 3993.8

40 to 4493

45 to 4991.5

50 to 5488.2

55 to 5979.4

60 and 6168.5

62 to 6451.2

65 to 6932.7

70 to 7418

75 and older ..7.8


1 to 42.53.3

5 to 972.7

10 to 1914.52.4

20 to 24225.6

25 to 29275.2

30 to 34323.8

35 to 44402.5

45 to 54502

55 to 64601.8

65 to 84751.1

85 or older900.4



1982-19921992-20022002-2012

All Ages16.2%11.3%12.0%

16 to 24-12.2%3.7%9.0%

22 to 5429.7%9.2%5.1%

55 and older-0.2%34.4%14.3%

entre


Page





nces




TotalMenWomen

00

1988.994,829477,203517,62652.03%

1989.1,018,755483,346535,40952.56%

1990.1,051,344491,696559,64853.23%

1991.1,094,538504,045590,49353.95%

1992.1,136,553520,811615,74254.18%

1993.1,165,178532,881632,29754.27%

1994.1,169,275532,422636,85354.47%

1995.1,160,134526,131634,00354.65%

1996.1,164,792522,454642,33855.15%

1997.1,172,879520,515652,36455.62%

1998.1,184,406519,956664,45056.10%

1999.1,200,303518,746681,55756.78%

2000.1,237,875530,367707,50857.16%

2001.1,244,171531,840712,33157.25%


2002.1,294,000545,000749,00057.88%

2003.1,311,000548,000763,00058.20%

2004.1,333,000559,000774,00058.06%

2005.1,352,000578,000774,00057.25%

2006.1,397,000584,000813,00058.20%

2007.1,413,000585,000828,00058.60%

2008.1,425,000589,000836,00058.67%

2009.1,441,000594,000847,00058.78%

2010.1,456,000598,000858,00058.93%

2011.1,469,000603,000866,00058.95%

2012.1,488,000610,000878,00059.01%

2013.1,509,000616,000893,00059.18%


2002.1,281,000539,000742,00057.92%

2003.1,287,000538,000749,00058.20%

2004.1,316,000552,000764,00058.05%

2005.1,319,000564,000755,00057.24%

2006.1,384,000579,000805,00058.16%

2007.1,400,000580,000820,00058.57%

2008.1,411,000584,000827,00058.61%

2009.1,427,000588,000839,00058.79%

2010.1,442,000592,000850,00058.95%

2011.1,455,000597,000858,00058.97%

2012.1,473,000604,000869,00059.00%

2013.1,493,000609,000884,00059.21%

.


000

2002.1,317,000554,000763,00057.93%

2003.1,328,000555,000773,00058.21%

2004.1,366,000573,000793,00058.05%

2005.1,366,000584,000782,00057.25%

2006.1,411,000590,000821,00058.19%

2007.1,428,000591,000837,00058.61%

2008.1,439,000595,000844,00058.65%

2009.1,456,000600,000856,00058.79%

2010.1,471,000604,000867,00058.94%

2011.1,484,000609,000875,00058.96%

2012.1,503,000616,000887,00059.02%

2013.1,509,000616,000893,00059.18%







cps2004






25+ years

186,877165,49212,0584,2822,1515621,575756

11,74710,532732188941946135

15,99813,9911,311305193438868

59,81053,5223,7621,270618122369148

47,57241,9623,1471,20959516740191

33,76629,5372,165943422131402166

17,98315,94894336722779270149

25 to 29 years

19,00813,7593,0201,0305051273342331,1996.3%

87366412624175334596.8%


5,5574,1268942821222769372554.6%25 to 295.3%8.9%

5,4404,0427872931703683293185.8%71213,5495.3%30 to 343.5%5.7%

4,3583,04572129411124105592996.9%4855,4588.9%35 to 442.6%3.8%

1,100673173684424665218616.9%45 to 641.8%2.2%


20,19316,3152,2537813391002611448444.2%2,04339,2015.2%

9577831249111425414.3%1001,8305.5%

1,5601,234204632311817593.8%1393,2394.3%

5,6874,616696209761459181672.9%42211,2443.8%

5,6044,5626112141142360202173.9%53511,0444.8%48413,8083.5%

4,4003,568429200732467392034.6%5028,7585.7%3616,3865.7%

1,9861,55219086412863261588.0%3443,08611.1%

35 to 44 years

43,57337,8623,3141,1025301264142261,2963.0%

1,8511,54018362132843663.6%

3,3822,7754157942936261133.3%

13,73911,9811,0893271762192523412.5%

11,73210,2308703421383593252912.5%81130,7042.6%

8,8217,80551519810441119393033.4%48512,8703.8%

4,0493,53124294581766411824.5%

45 to 64 years

69,44364,4132,6581,0316311464291351,3411.9%

3,2342,936167523671323792.4%

4,8704,44727753566284941.9%

22,34620,8118463201914298383691.7%

18,42517,06770630315251134143511.9%89348,8751.8%

12,39311,5184012031193490282712.2%44820,5672.2%

8,1747,63526110178566281772.2%

65+ years

34,65933,14381333814663138193661.1%

4,8324,609132411831811501.0%

4,5074,32595423277-461.0%

12,48211,98923613253185221251.0%

6,3716,062173572222313781.2%29928,1921.1%

3,7943,601994716822-461.2%666,4681.0%

2,6742,55877185582200.7%

Footnotes:




Page &P

And one more thing . . .

There are fewer of themU.S. 25 to 34 Year Old Population1990: 43.5 Million2000: 39.6 MillionToday3.9 Million Fewera 9% Decline

A Seismic Shift in Labor MarketsLast 30 YearsBoomers enter prime work yearsWomens labor market participation nearly doublesEducational attainment up sharply= Labor SurplusNext 30 YearsBoomers retire; many earlyWomens labor market participation plateausEducational attainment plateaus= Labor Shortage

Women Now in Labor ForceLabor Force Participation Rates

Five-fold increase in College Grads since 1965Adults with a 4-year degree, (thousands)

Slowing Growth in GraduatesNumber of 25 to 34 Year Old College Graduates

College Attainment Rate FlatCollege Attainment Rate (2004)Age

Competing in a Knowledge EconomyTalent is the critical resourceThe Creative Class mattersSkilled, creative workersAttractive, tolerant placesInnovative, successful economiesThe Young and Restless are the creative class that is up for grabs

Our Five FundamentalsWinners and LosersDiversityTalentWomenPlace

Winners and Losers% Change 25-34 year-olds, 1990 to 200050 Most Populous Metro AreasAverage of Metros with 150,000 to 250,000 PopulationChico

Chart1

Sheet1

FoodGasMotel

Jan121710

Feb171121

Mar222914

Apr141017

May121710

Jun191520

Tri County Region Followed National TrendYoung Adults Ages 25 to 341990: 37,4952000: 32,347Change: -5,148 (-13.7%)For Reference:Total Population Up 11.4%

Data for Butte, Glenn & Tehama Counties

Young Adults are More DiverseNationally: One-fifth of 25/34s are Hispanic Hispanic up 57% Asian-American up 41% since 1990 African-American down 6% White down 17%

Young Adult Population More DiversePercent of Population, 1990 and 2000

HispanicsFastest growing segment of the young and restless since 1990Hispanic 25-34: Up 2.3 million (+57%)Non-Hispanic 25-34: Down 5.3 million (-17%)Tri County Region:Hispanic 25-34: Up 2,182 (+50%)Non-Hispanic 25-34: Down 7,330 (-22%)Low College Attainment an issue (11% vs. 31.9% for all 25-34s)

African-AmericansDeclining slightly, less than whitesGenerally becoming more dispersedMagnet Cities for African-Americans, Atlanta, Orlando, CharlotteTri County16% increase in 25-34 year-old African Americans480 vs 410 in 1990Data for Butte, Glenn & Tehama Counties

Big Variations in Talent Among Metros25-34 year-olds, Percent with a Four-Year Degree50 Metro Areas (150K to 250K)Average of 50 MetrosChico

Chart1

Sheet1

FoodGasMotel

Jan121710

Feb171121

Mar222914

Apr141017

May121710

Jun191520

Best and Worst Educated MetrosRankMetropolitan Area 25-34 Attainment Rate1Raleigh--Durham, NC45.2%2Boston--Worcester--Lawrence, MA43.2%3San Francisco--Oakland--San Jose, CA41.3%4Washington--Baltimore, DC--MD--VA--WV40.9%5Minneapolis--St. Paul, MNWI39.9%46Norfolk--Virginia Beach--Newport News, VA23.8%47Los Angeles--Riverside--Orange County, CA23.0%48Jacksonville, FL MSA22.5%49San Antonio, TX MSA22.2%50Las Vegas, NV--AZ MSA16.3%

Chico Gained College EducatedCollege-educated 25 to 34 Olds1990: 5,8502000: 5,907Change: +57 (+2.7%)Four-Year Attainment Rate1990: 15.6%2000: 18.3%


Women Better Educated NowCollege Attainment Rate (Percent with a 4 Year Degree)AgeNational Data

Locally: Smart WomenCollege Attainment Rate of 25 to 34 Year Olds Gender19902000Change Men 15.9%16.6%+0.7% Women15.3% 20.0%+4.7%


Close-In Neighborhoods MatterClose-in defined:Within 3 miles of Central Business DistrictTotal Population: 9 million (2000)Young adult preference for close-in living relative to other Americans1980: +10% Greater1990: +12% Greater2000: +30% GreaterYoung adult close-in preference increased in all 50 large metro areas between 1990-2000

Where Close-In Neighborhoods WorkRankMetropolitan Area Close in Preference1Chicago--Gary--Kenosha, IL--IN--WI1.792Seattle--Tacoma, WA 1.733San Francisco--Oakland--San Jose, CA1.694New York--Northern New Jersey, NYNJ1.62BostonWorcester, MA-NH1.6146San Antonio, TX 1.0147Greensboro--Winston-Salem, NC 1.0048Nashville, TN 0.9949Norfolk--Virginia Beach, VA0.9650Jacksonville, FL 0.94

Smart in the Center College AttainmentRankMetropolitan Area Close-in Rest of MSA1New YorkN. New Jersey, NY--NJ71.6% 33.0%2Chicago--Gary, IL--IN--WI69.5% 33.1%3Portland--Salem, OR--WA54.7% 26.2%4San Francisco-Oakland-San Jose, CA67.1% 38.1%Seattle--Tacoma, WA CMSA56.3% 32.4%46Indianapolis, IN17.1% 32.1%47Los Angeles-Riverside-Orange Cty., CA 12.3% 23.4%48Phoenix--Mesa, AZ11.2% 25.2%49San Antonio, TX9.5% 23.6%50Las Vegas, NV--AZ 5.1% 18.0%

Young & Restless in Center

Young and Restless in Suburbs

Policy Implications Make people the focus of economic developmentWomen and ethnically diverse young peopleOpenness and engagementThe role of higher educationVibrant close-in neighborhoods are an economic asset The economic importance of being different

Strategy = DifferentiationCompetitive strategy is about being different. The essence of strategy is choosing to perform activities differently than rivals doMichael Porter, What is Strategy, Harvard Business Review, 1996

For More Informationwww.ImpresaConsulting.com

[email protected]

www.ceosforcities.org

Impresas MissionUnderstand how regions prosper in a knowledge based economyImpresas WorkOregon Business Plan: An ongoing 5-year private sector-led state strategic planningNational industry clusters studies of biotechnology and high techResearch Advisor to CEOs for CitiesSenior Fellow, Brookings InstitutionAdvisor to Ford & McArthur Foundations, National Academy of Sciences, OECD

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Talented Young Workers and the Prospects for Prosperity Joe Cortright.

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Transcript of Talented Young Workers and the Prospects for Prosperity Joe Cortright.