The Talent Dividend

Joe Cortright

April 2014

Talent Dividend Prize and associated programs are generously supported by:

April 2014

Roadmap

1. The Talent Dividend

2. Year Two Reports

3. Awarding the Talent Dividend Prize

4. Questions

The Talent Dividend

April 2014

April 2014

Talent Dividend

Education drives individual success

0

10,000

20,000

30,000

40,000

50,000

60,000

70,000

80,000

90,000

100,000

Not a High SchoolGraduate

High School Graduate SomeCollege/Associate's

Degree

Bachelor's Degree Advanced Degree

Educational Attainment of Population, All Persons Aged 25 and older

Source: Current Population Survey,

Earnings Strongly Correlated with Education

Annual Earnings (Chained 2012 $)1975

This relationship has grown stronger

0

10,000

20,000

30,000

40,000

50,000

60,000

70,000

80,000

90,000

100,000

Not a High SchoolGraduate

High School Graduate SomeCollege/Associate's

Degree

Bachelor's Degree Advanced Degree

Educational Attainment of Population, All Persons Aged 25 and older

Source: Current Population Survey,

Earnings Strongly Correlated with Education

Annual Earnings (Chained 2012$) 2011

College wage premium growing

Source: Johnathan James, FRB, Cleveland 2012

Wages holding up better for best educated in recovery

April 2014

Education Drives Wealth

April 2014

Enrico Moretti

• “Human capital is the best predictor of high salaries for both individuals and communities

• . . . The presence of college-educated residents - - - results in high wages not just for the skilled workers but also for workers with limited skills

• (page 90)

Education lowers unemployment

• Glaeser

• Education has “a social multiplier”

• Unemployment rates are lower for everyone in metro’s with high levels of education

April 2014

The hypothesis

• Better educated metropolitan areas have higher incomes

• Better skilled workers are more innovative and productive

April 2014

The evidenceEducation Explains Most Differences in Metro IncomeAnnual Per Capita Income, 2005

NO

RAL

ROC

SLC

BIR

BUF

OKC

HAR

RIC

LOUMEM

JAC NAS

AUS

MIL

CHA

PRI

VB

IND

COL

LV

SAT

KC

ORL

SACCLECIN POR

PIT

DEN

BAL

TPA

STL

SAN

MIN

SEA

PHO

DET

ATL

MIA

HOU PHI

DAL

CHI

LA

NY

y = 763.27x + 16466

R2 = 0.5846

$30,000

$32,000

$34,000

$36,000

$38,000

$40,000

$42,000

$44,000

$46,000

$48,000

$50,000

15 20 25 30 35 40 45

Percent of Population with a 4-Year College Degree, 2006

Sources: BEA (Income), Census (Education)

Updated to 2011

April 2014

April 2014

Estimating the gain

• Each 1% improvement in college attainment is associated with a $856 increase in per capita income for the entire metropolitan area

• These education gains are the product of a shift in the entire skill distribution, not just moving 1% past the 4 year mark

April 2014

Make progress at every stage

Year Two Reports

April 2014

The Talent Dividend Prize

• Prize: $1 million to the winning metro

• 57 Competing Metropolitan Areas

• The Talent Dividend Prize will be awarded to the city that exhibits the greatest increase in the number of post secondary degrees granted per one thousand population over a four-year period

April 2014

Calculation details

• Data Sources:

– Degrees Awarded: IPEDS

– Population: Census Bureau, ACS

• Weighting

– 2-year degrees: 1 point

– 4-year and higher degrees, 2 points

• Base Year: 2009-10

• Year Two: 2011-12

• Rules: http://ceosforcities.org/talent/rules.html

April 2014

Scoring degrees

IPEDS Degree Classifications Points

Associate's degree 1

Bachelor's degree 2

Master's degree 2

Doctor's degree - research/scholarship 2

Doctor's degree - professional practice 2

Doctor's degree – other 2

April 2014

Data Review

• 2011-12 academic year is year two for the Talent Dividend competition

• Participating cities were provided with provisional year two reports and were given the opportunity to review and correct them

• Validation is a “dress rehearsal” for the prize award process this year.

April 2014

Year two reports

• Compare 2009-10 (base year) with 2011-12 (year two).

• Two reports

– Detail: Results by institution

– Summary: Metro area totals and score

• Data from IPEDS, and are preliminary

April 2014

Summary report

April 2014

Detailreport

April 2014

Data is preliminary and subject to verification and revision.

IPEDS data current as of October, 2013.

Talent Dividend Second Year Report (Provisional)

Institution Detail Report

Buffalo-Niagara Falls- NY Metropolitan Area

2009-10 Academic Year 2011-12 Academic Year

Institution AA BA and Higher AA BA and Higher

Bryant and Stratton College-Amherst 116 30 124 24

Bryant and Stratton College-Buffalo 135 8 147 16

Bryant and Stratton College-Southtowns 266 35 176 15

Canisius College 8 1,346 11 1,502

Cheryl Fells School of Business - - - -

Christ the King Seminary - 10 - 11

Continental School of Beauty Culture-Buffalo - - - -

Continental School of Beauty Culture-West Seneca - - - -

D'Youville College - 756 - 803

Daemen College - 732 - 784

Erie 1 BOCES - - - -

Erie 2 Chautauqua Cattaraugus BOCES-Practical Nursing Program - - - -

Erie Community College 1,842 - 2,059 -

Hilbert College 32 194 22 186

ITT Technical Institute-Getzville 141 - 203 -

Leon Studio One School of Hair Design - - - -

MarJon School of Beauty Culture Ltd - - - -

Medaille College 67 1,116 92 918

National Tractor Trailer School Inc-Buffalo - - - -

New York Institute of Massage Inc - - - -

Niagara County Community College 970 - 1,008 -

Niagara University 4 1,367 5 1,319

Orleans Niagara BOCES-Practical Nursing Program - - - -

SUNY College at Buffalo - 2,641 - 2,687

The Salon Professional Academy-Tonawanda - - - -

Trocaire College 202 - 294 7

University at Buffalo 1 7,073 - 7,653

Villa Maria College 69 11 44 34

Grand Total 3,853 15,319 4,185 15,959

Detail report

April 2014

2009-10 Academic Year 2011-12 Academic Year

Institution AA BA and Higher AA BA and Higher

Bryant and Stratton College-Amherst 116 30 124 24

Bryant and Stratton College-Buffalo 135 8 147 16

Bryant and Stratton College-Southtowns 266 35 176 15

Canisius College 8 1,346 11 1,502

Cheryl Fells School of Business - - - -

April 2014

-10.0% -5.0% 0.0% 5.0% 10.0% 15.0% 20.0%

Year 2 Performance

April 2014

Validating results

• IPEDS data are subject to validation

• Participating cities should validate their IPEDS-based data with local institutions

• Though rare, reporting errors do occur

–Wrong data

– Mis-classification

– Administrative Changes

April 2014

http://nces.ed.gov/ipeds/datacenter/

April 2014

IPEDS Key Dates

Talent

Dividend

Year

Academic

Year

Reporting

Deadline

Preliminary

Release

Public

Availability

Base 2009-10 October 2010 May 2011 October 2011

1 Year 2010-11 October 2011 May 2012 October 2012

2 Years 2011-12 October 2012 May 2013 October 2013

3 Years 2012-13 October 2013 May 2014 October 2014

April 2014

Determining the Prize

• May-June, 2014: IPEDS data release

• July, 2014: Cities vet IPEDS data; validate any questionable data

• August-September: Review of data and validation

• October, 2014: Announcement of Talent Dividend Prize Winner

April 2014

Questions?

April 2014