Taking a Second Look at Biogeoclimatic Ecosystem Classification (BEC)

FORREX webinarTuesday, Dec. 7, 2010 10:30 amPresenter: Sybille Haeussler, UNBChaeussl@unbc.caModerator: Don Gayton, FORREXPhone: 1-866-596-5278ID: 3120346#Facebook: “BEC forum”

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Why BEC matters in today’s world

• An integrated, holistic, multi-scaled view of ecosystems that is concrete rather than fuzzy

• A framework for understanding and tackling complex ecosystem responses to accelerating change

• Fundamentally compatible with evolving notions of complex adaptive systems

• Proven adaptable to changing expectations for BC’s public land base

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Challenges faced by BEC

1) Loss of critical mass and institutional support

2) Outdated equilibrium concepts

3) Intellectual richness & contemporary relevance underappreciated

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Outline of Webinar

1. Introduction (done)

2. Brief History of BEC loss of critical mass

3. Addressing Outdated Equilibrium Concepts (with one example)

Short question period

4. A plan to revitalize BEC

Discussion session

5. Post-webinar chat: Facebook “BEC forum”

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2. A Brief History of BECDeveloped in 1949-70 by Vladimir Krajina &

students in Botany Department at UBC

Vladimir J. Krajina 1905 - 1993

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Adopted by BC Government mid-1970s Ecological Reserves program (Krajina, Foster, Pojar, Roemer)

BC Forest Service (Annas, Pojar, Klinka, Meidinger, etc)

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Bristol Foster Vladimir Krajina touring Eco Reserve Jim Pojar in Spatsizi

1978 Ecologists & Pedologists 2008 BEC program staff

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BEC has served BC well in changing timesDATE ERA/ISSUE REFERENCES

Early 70’s IBP and Ecological Reserves program Krajina (1973, 1974)

Late 70’s thru 1980s

Golden Age of Silviculture (FRDA)• tree species selection• site preparation & backlog rehabilitation

Klinka et al. (1984)Coates et al. (1987)

Early 1990s

War in the Woods• Old Growth Strategy• Protected Areas Strategy• Land and Resource plans• Forest Practices Code guidebooks

OGSP (1992)Province of BC (1993)CCLUP (1994)Parminter (1995)

Late 1990s • Biodiversity conservation (red/blue lists)• rangeland ecosystem restoration • site index & productivity (SIBEC)

CDC website (2010)Gayton (2001)Mah and Nigh (2003)

2000s Results-Based & Ecosystem-Based Mgmt• certification & SFM monitoring

FSC Canada (2005)FREP (2008)

First Nations TEK and Non-Timber Resources Keefer et al. (2008)

Climate Change• Future Forests strategies (FFEI, FFESC)

Hamann & Wang (2006)Symmetree 2009

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Loss of critical mass & support

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BC govt BEC group since 2008 (apologies for any errors)

• BEC still taught to (forestry) undergraduates - a useful framework for management

• Not a serious topic for academic research- descriptive; quaint?

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3. Using Complex Systems Science to Address Equilibrium Concepts

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Paradigm Shift

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Linear Thinking(reductionist)

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Systems Thinking(holistic)

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climate

interspecific competition

site microclimate (temp, moisture)

natural disturbance

extirpation

plant community

seed bank

long-distance dispersal

topography

legacy patches

legacy patches provide seed (e.g., pine), shade, moisture storage, seed bed

short-distance dispersal

inverts

fungi

vertebrates

virus/bact.

ecosystem stand-scale

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Dialectic(Hegel)

• A dialogue between two (groups of) people holding opposite views who want to pursue truth by seeking agreement with one another

• Simultaneously considering two diametrically opposed ideas (embracing the paradox)allows the imagination to leap to a higher level

• The“reconciling third” (Carl Jung)

• “The Third Way” (Tony Blair and others)

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Applying a dialectic to Ecosystems

Individualistic “Gleasonian”

paradigm

QuantitativeHard Science

Theory Building

Holistic “Clementsian”

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DescriptiveSoft ScienceClassification

Complex Systems Theory allows these two views to be reconciled

An Ecosystem as a“Dissipative, Non-Equilibrium System”

(Prigogine 1977)

“an open, dynamical system operating far from thermodynamic equilibrium in an environment with which it exchanges energy and matter”

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Complex Systems Science provides a framework for describing such systems mathematically and tools for modeling their dynamics

Keep this image in your mind

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“Attractor”Term from Non-linear Dynamics (math & physics)

Definition:A set of states of a dynamic physical system toward which the system tends to evolve, regardless of the starting conditions of the system.

Different kinds of attractors:• Point attractor (eye of hurricane)

• Periodic attractor = limit cycle (system oscillates)

• Strange attractor = chaos (trajectory appears random)

Attractors in EcosystemsThe set of states toward which a dynamic ecosystem tends to evolve, regardless of the starting conditions of the ecosystem.

Fast-changing Variables (100s of yrs):Vegetation Succession Point attractor : monoclimax (ESSFmc) Periodic attractor: alternative “stable” states

CH vs HA states in very wet CWH subzone Black spruce vs mixedwood in BWBS zone

Chaotic attractor: urban ecosystems?

Slower-changing Variables (1000s of yrs):Soil Profile Development

I propose that the BEC system formally recognize the existence of multiple attractors (alternative states) and the potential for chaos.

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• Attractor = climax (monoclimax, polyclimax)

• Attractors operating at multiple scales

Climate level: zonal ecosystem, zonal soil

Site level: climatic climax (/01)

edaphic climax (/02 , etc)

But the system doesn’t formally allow for:

1) More than one attractor (“seral”)

2) Shifting attractors (complex adaptive system)

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Attractors in BEC

Tools and Techniquesof Complex Systems Science

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Technique References

Agent-based models Gilbert and Terno 2000

Cellular automata Wolfram 2002

Data mining Kantardzic 2003

Fitness/Adaptive landscape models Gavrilets 2004

Fuzzy logic and uncertainty theory Liu 2010

Game theory Shoham and Leyton-Brown 2009

Information theory Cover and Thomas 2006

Machine learning Alpaydin 2004

Network analysis Barabasi 2002

Non-linear equations Khalil 2001

Statistical mechanics Evans and Morriss 2008

Symbolic dynamics William 2004

adapted from Haeussler & Thorpe (2010)

Linear, equilibrium thinking in BEC:Example 1

20Jan 2009 inversion-induced dieback

Hamann & Wang 2006

current 2025 2055 2085

Hudson Bay Mountain, Smithers Perkins Peak near Tatla Lake

Great science (null/neutral hypothesis) – but what will really happen?

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Linear, equilibrium thinking in BEC: Example 2

“The relative relationship between sites at a local scale will remain stable into the future. E.g. drier, mesic, and wetter sites will retain their relative position and designation in the landscape.”

BECweb climate change page

Another great Neutral Hypothesis, but what’s the alternative?

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Soil nutrient regime

Reimaging the Edatopic Grid as an Adaptive Landscape

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ESSFlThe Messy OvalsYole et al. 1989

ESSFmkThe Modernist BoxBanner et al. 1993

widely used in genetics (Wright 1932; Kauffman )

Fitness (Adaptive) Landscape Modeling

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Point Attractor(smooth landscape)

Periodic Attractor

Multiple Attractors(rugged landscape)

Strange Attractor(chaotic landscape)

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The Edatopic Grid as a Dynamic Fitness Landscape

What does the vertical axis represent?• Ecosystem complexity• The degree of internal

organization (negentropy)• Degree of succession and soil

development• Ascendancy (Ulanowicz 2009)

How can we measure it?• Time since major disturbance• Carbon storage• Retention rate (inverse of

erosion & leaching)????

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The Edatopic Grid as an Adaptive Landscape

Landscape Homogenization

6 ecosystem attractors (site series) 4 ecosystem attractors (site series)

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Questions?

Contact haeussl@unbc.ca to obtain review copy of manuscript:Haeussler, S . 2010. Rethinking biogeoclimatic ecosystem classification (BEC) for a changing world. (Not for open distribution).

4. A Plan to Revitalize BECSummary of key points:

• BEC must adapt from static descriptions & maps of climax ecosystems to dynamic non-equilibrium models of shifting ecosystem attractors

• A revitalized BEC will help practitioners better understand complex ecosystem behaviour in changing times

• To retain critical mass, BEC must excite and enlighten a new generation of ecologists, earth systems scientists and resource practitioners in academia, the private sector (& govt).

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Practical Steps• Discussion Forum (Facebook: “BEC forum”)• Letter writing campaign from outside govt. to

maintain support for core program within govt.• Proposal development and fundraising to:

– expand new research and modeling– integrate non-equilibrium ideas into BEC training

materials– increase BEC awareness and appreciation (BEC history,

artistic expression, public displays) – to coordinate training and mentoring opportunities

• Your ideas?

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Thanks for participating

• Participate in the “BEC forum” on Facebook Login to your Facebook account Type “BEC forum” (with quotes) into search bar Look for icon at left

• Contact Sybille privately at haeussl@unbc.ca

Acknowledgements:FFESC, FIA-FSP, Santa Fe Institute, MITACS

K. Lewis, S. Simard, E. Hamilton, E. Campbell

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