TABLE OF CONTENTS - The New York Times...TABLE OF CONTENTS Introduction Resettling the First...

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TABLEOFCONTENTSIntroduction

ResettlingtheFirstAmerican‘ClimateRefugees’

ARemotePacificNation,ThreatenedbyRisingSeas

ClimateChangeClaimsaLake,andanIdentity

ResettlingChina’s‘EcologicalMigrants’

AWrenchingChoiceforAlaskaTownsinthePathofClimateChange

Heat,HungerandWarForceAfricansOntoa‘RoadonFire’

PolarBears’PathtoDeclineRunsThroughAlaskanVillage

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INTRODUCTION

THEREWILLBE50MILLIONofthemby2050—or200million,dependingonwhich expert you ask. Yet they have no protection, not even a classification, ininternational law.Forall thathasbeenwrittenovermanyyearsabouttheperilsofclimate change, precious little has documented the people around the globe beingdisplacedbyit,adisparate—oftendesperate—lotcalled“climaterefugees”insomequarters. They are people who have lostmuchmore than their livelihoods,moreeventhantheirhomes;inmanycases,theyhavelosttheirveryidentitiestothewindandthewater,thesandandtheheat.

ChroniclingtheirplightwasaglobaleffortbyNewYorkTimesjournalists:eightofthemspentcollectivemonthsonthegroundinfourcontinents,andmanyothersworkedfromheadquartersinNewYorktoenhanceandelevatethestorytellingusinginnovativetools.ThisTBook,basedonamultipartseriesthatspooledoutoverthecourseof2016,providesanin-depthexplorationofcommunitiesontherunfromadried-uplakeinBolivia,risingseasinLouisiana,agovernmentresettlementprograminChina,droughtandconflictinWestAfrica,andmeltingglaciersinAlaska.

Nick Casey will introduce you to the Uru-Morato, indigenous people whoadaptedovergenerationstoconquestsbytheIncaandtheSpanishbutwereunabletocopewith the rapiddisappearanceofLakePoopó,Bolivia’s second-largest.Thelakewastheirprimaryfoodsourceandtheirincome-generator.Itwasalsothebasisoftheirreligionandtheinspirationofnamesfortheirbabies.Whatdoesitmeanforthem to relocate to towns near jobs in saltmines?Eatingmeat for the first time,usinghardcurrencyforthefirsttime.

EdWong will take you toMiamiao Lake Village, a brand-new settlement ofcookie-cutter concrete-block houses the Chinese government built for UighurMuslims forced from the region’s exponentially spreading sands. There you willmeetMaShiliang,avillagedoctor,andhisfamily,whowerepromisedgardensandfarmsteadsandendeduponlywithankle-deepsandsovery likewhat theyhad leftbehind.“Ifwehadknownwhatitwaslike,”Dr.Masaidsimply,“wewouldnothavemovedhere.”

ItisastarkwarningfortheNativeAmericantribesofsoutheasternLouisianaandthe United States Department of Housing and Urban Development. As CoralDavenportandCampbellRobertsonwrotetokickoffourCarbon’sCasualtiesseries,HUD allocated $48million to the Isle de JeanCharles, the first federal grant to

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relocateclimaterefugees.InNiger,SominiSenguptametscoresofyoungmenchasedfromtheirvillages

by a braided tapestry of threats: soil thatwould not yield for them as it had theirfathersandgrandfathers,andterroriststryingtotakeadvantageoftheirvulnerability.She spent days at the intense crossing point of Agadez, “a city of dreams bothbuddingandbroken,”wherehumantrafficisthemainindustry,andfollowedthembothon the “roadof fire” toother countries andon the roadsback to theirdustyvillages.

EricaGoodetrekkedthroughAlaska’stinytownsfacingthewrenchingchoiceofwhethertostayandfightthefloodwatersoftherapidlywarmingArctic,ormovetohigher ground, a prohibitively expensive and likely temporary reprieve. She foundamongclimate’srefugeesnotjustInuithuntersandfishermenbutpolarbears,whocanbeseendozingonsandspits,paddingupthebeachand,atnight, stealing intotown. The precious bears are nearing extinction because the ice they rely on isdisappearingsofast.

AndMikeIvestraveledliterallythousandsofmilesintothePacific,totheremoteisland nation of Kiribati, whose former president has taken the extreme step ofpurchasinganewplotof landforhispeople,manyofwhomaredevoutChristiansandwanttoleaveituptofaith.

Josh Haner, a prizewinning photojournalist, was at every stop, capturingunforgettable imagesof thepeopleand theplaces. InAlaska, thecolddepletedhisbatteriesmorequickly;12,000feetabovesea level inBolivia,hehadtocorrect foraltitudeandthenformagneticinterferencefromsaltflats.InNiger,thelawprohibitsuseofadronewithinfivemilesoftheairport,whichmeantcrossingthelastpolicecheckpointinAgadezandenteringthelawlessdesertleadingtoLibya—sandwichedbetweentwotruckswith10armedguardsineach.InChina,hehadtoalwaysstayafewstepsaheadofgovernmentofficialsandthepolice.

ThentherewasKiribati,wherevisitorstoeachislethavetomakeanofferingoftobaccotothegods,certifiedbyanelderwhoputshandprintsofdampsandoneachvisitor’scheekandplacesacrownmadefromlocalvinesoneachvisitor’shead.“Thiswasoftendifficult,astheboatswoulddropusinthemiddleoftheislandandthenwehad to find transport to an elderwho could perform the ritual,” explainedHaner,whosestillanddronephotographywastheconnectivetissueoftheseries.“Ipassedcountlessphotoopportunitiesalongtheway,butcouldn’tworkuntilthisritualwasperformed.”

Wehopeyouenjoytheseries.Thankyouforreading.

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—JODIRUDOREN,EditorialDirector,NYTGlobal,andHANNAHFAIRFIELD,ClimateEditor

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RESETTLINGTHEFIRSTAMERICAN‘CLIMATEREFUGEES’

BYCORALDAVENPORTANDCAMPBELLROBERTSONMAY3,2016

ISLE DE JEAN CHARLES, LA. — Each morning at 3:30, when Joann Bourgleaves the mildewed and rusted house that her parents built on her grandfather’sproperty, she worries that the bridge connecting this spit of waterlogged land toLouisiana’sterrafirmawillagainbefloodedandshewillmissanotherday’swork.

Ms.Bourg,acustodianatasportinggoodsstoreonthemainland,liveswithhertwosisters,82-year-oldmother,sonandnieceonlandwhereherancestors,membersoftheNativeAmericantribesofsoutheasternLouisiana,havelivedforgenerations.Thatearthisnowdying,drowninginsaltandsinkingintothesea,andsheisreadytoleave.

With a first-of-its-kind “climate resilience” grant to resettle the island’s nativeresidents,Washingtonisreadytohelp.

“Yes,thisisourgrandpa’sland,”Ms.Bourgsaid.“Butit’sgoingunderonewayoranother.”

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Fromleft,MarleneAutian,LauraBroussardandJoannBourg,whoaresisters,outsidetheirhomeonIsledeJeanCharleslastmonth.TheirNativeAmericanfamilyhaslivedonthelandforgenerations.(JoshHaner/TheNewYorkTimes)

In January, the Department of Housing and Urban Development announcedgrantstotaling$1billionin13statestohelpcommunitiesadapttoclimatechange,bybuildingstrongerlevees,damsanddrainagesystems.

Oneofthosegrants,$48millionforIsledeJeanCharles,issomethingnew:thefirstallocationoffederaltaxdollarstomoveanentirecommunitystrugglingwiththeimpactsofclimatechange.Thedivisionstheefforthasexposedandthelogisticalandmoral dilemmas it has presentedpoint up inmicrocosm themassive problems theworldcouldface inthecomingdecadesas itconfrontsanewcategoryofdisplacedpeoplewhohavebecomeknownasclimaterefugees.

“We’re going to lose all our heritage, all our culture,” lamentedChief AlbertNaquin of the Biloxi-Chitimacha-Choctaw, the tribe to which most Isle de Jean

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Charlesresidentsbelong.“It’sallgoingtobehistory.”

AmiyaBrunet,3,onthebridgethatleadstoherhome,whichfillswithuptoafootofmudduringstorms.Herparents,KeithBrunetandKeishaMcGehee,

wouldliketoleavetheisland.(JoshHaner/TheNewYorkTimes)

Aroundtheglobe,governmentsareconfrontingtherealitythatashuman-causedclimate change warms the planet, rising sea levels, stronger storms, increasedflooding,harsherdroughtsanddwindlingfreshwatersuppliescoulddrivetheworld’smost vulnerable people from their homes. Between 50 million and 200 millionpeople—mainlysubsistence farmersandfishermen—couldbedisplacedby2050becauseofclimatechange,accordingtoestimatesbytheUnitedNationsUniversityInstitute forEnvironmentandHumanSecurityandtheInternationalOrganizationforMigration.

“The changes are underway and they are very rapid,” Interior Secretary Sally

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JewellwarnedlastweekinOttawa.“Wewillhaveclimaterefugees.”But the problem is complex, said Walter Kaelin, the head of the Nansen

Initiative, a research organization working with the United Nations to addressextreme-weatherdisplacement.

“Youdon’twant towaituntilpeoplehave lost theirhomes,until they fleeandbecomerefugees,”hesaid.“Theideaistoplanaheadandprovidepeoplewithsomemeasureofchoice.”

TheIsledeJeanCharlesresettlementplanisoneofthefirstprogramsofitskindin the world, a test of how to respond to climate change in the most dramaticcircumstances without tearing communities apart. Under the terms of the federalgrant,theisland’sresidentsaretoberesettledtodrierlandandacommunitythatasofnowdoesnotexist.Allfundshavetobespentby2022.

“We see this as setting a precedent for the rest of the country, the rest of theworld,”saidMarionMcFadden,whoisrunningtheprogramattheDepartmentofHousingandUrbanDevelopment.

TheroadleadingtoIsledeJeanCharlesoftenfloods,cuttingoffthecommunity.

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(JoshHaner/TheNewYorkTimes)

Butevenaplanlikethis—whichwouldmoveonlyabout60people—hasbeenhardtopulloff.Threepreviousresettlementeffortsdatingbackto2002failedaftertheybecamemired in logisticalandpoliticalcomplications.Thecurrentplan facesall the same challenges, illustrating the limitations of resettlement on any largerscale.

Foroveracentury, theAmericanIndianson the island fished,hunted, trappedandfarmedamongthe lushbananaandpecantrees thatoncespreadout foracres.Butsince1955,morethan90percentoftheisland’soriginallandmasshaswashedaway.Channels cut by loggers and oil companies erodedmuch of the island, anddecadesoffloodcontroleffortshavekeptoncefree-flowingriversfromreplenishingthewetlands’sediments.Someoftheislandwassweptawaybyhurricanes.

Whatlittleremainswilleventuallybeinundatedasburningfossilfuelsmeltpolarice sheets and drive up sea levels, projected the National Climate Assessment, areportof13federalagenciesthathighlightedtheIsledeJeanCharlesanditstribalresidentsasamongthenation’smostvulnerable.

Already, the homes and trailers bear themildewed, rusting scars of increasingfloods.Thefruittreesaremostlygoneordyingthankstosaltwaterinthesoil.Fewanimalsarelefttohuntortrap.

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ByTheNewYorkTimes

VioletHandonParfait seesnothingbutableakfuture intherisingwaters.Sheliveswith her husband and two children in a small trailer behind thewreckage oftheirhouse,whichHurricaneGustavdestroyedin2008.

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Thefloodsruined the trailer’soven, so the familycooksonahotplate.Waterdestroyedthefamilycomputer,too.Ms.Parfait,whohaslupus,isafraidofwhatwillhappenifsheissickandcannotreachadoctoroverthefloodedbridge.

Ms. Parfait, who dropped out of high school, hopes for a brighter future,including college, for her children,Heather, 15, andReggie, 13. But the childrenoftenmissschoolwhenfloodingblockstheirschoolbus.

“Ijustwanttogetoutofhere,”shesaid.

VioletHandonParfait,left,withherson,Reggie,andmother,TheresaHandon.Withherhusbandandtwochildren,Ms.Parfaitlivesinatrailerbehindthewreckageoftheirhouse,destroyedbyHurricaneGustavin2008.Hermotherlivesinanothertraileronthesameplot.(JoshHaner/TheNewYorkTimes)

Still,manyresidentsofIsledeJeanCharlesdonotwanttoleave.Attachmenttotheislandrunsdeep.Parentsandgrandparentslivedhere;thereisacemeteryonthe

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islandthatnoonewantstoabandon.Oldandwell-earneddistrustofthegovernmenthangs over all efforts, and a bitter dispute between the two Indian tribes withmembersontheislandhasthwartedeffortstounitebehindaplan.

“Ain’tnobodyI talk to thatwants tomove,”saidEdisonDardar,66,a lifelongresidentwhohaserectedhandwrittensignsattheentrancetotheislanddeclaringhisrefusaltoleave.“Idon’tknowwho’sinchargeofallthis.”

Whether to leave isonly the firstof thehardquestions:Wheredoes everyonego?Whatclaimdotheyhavetowhatisleftbehind?Willtheybewelcomedbytheirnewneighbors?Willtherebeworknearby?Whowillbeallowedtojointhem?

“Thisisnotjustasimplematterofwritingacheckandmovinghappilytoaplacewheretheyareembracedbytheirnewneighbors,”saidMarkDavis,thedirectoroftheTulaneInstituteonWaterResourcesLawandPolicy.

“Ifyouhaveahard timemovingdozensofpeople,”hecontinued,“itbecomesimpossibleinanykindoforganizedorfairwaytomovethousands,orhundredsofthousands,or,ifyoulookattheforecastforSouthFlorida,maybeevenmillions.”

KeyondreAuthement,15,throwingrocksontheisland.Attachmenttotheisland

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runsdeep,especiallyforthosewhoshrimpandfishinthesurroundingwaters.(JoshHaner/TheNewYorkTimes)

Louisianaofficialshavebeencopingwithsomeofthefastestratesoflandlossintheworld—anareathesizeofDelawarehasdisappearedfromsouthLouisianasincethe1930s.Amasterplanthatisexpectedtocosttensofbillionsofdollarsenvisionsagiantwallofleveesandfloodwallsalongthecoast.

But some places, like the island, would be left on the outside. For thosecommunities,wholesalerelocationmaybeaneffectivetool,ifafarmoredifficultandcostlyone.

“That’soneofthethingsweneedtolearnfromthecreationofthismodel,whichishowtodo iteconomically,” saidPatForbes, theexecutivedirectorof thestate’sOffice of Community Development, the agency in charge of administering thefederalclimategrant.

A vastmajority of the $1 billion disaster-resilience grant program is spent onprojects to improve infrastructure, like stronger roads, bridges, dams, levees anddrainagesystems,towithstandrisingseasandstrongerstorms.

ButexpertsseeplaceslikeIsledeJeanCharlesaslostcauses.“Weareverycognizantoftheobligationtotaxpayerstonotthrowgoodmoney

afterbad,”Ms.McFaddenoftheDepartmentofHousingandUrbanDevelopmentsaid.“Wecouldgivethemoneytotheislandtobuildbackexactlyasbefore,butweknow from the climate data that theywill keep gettinghitwithworse storms andfloods,andthetaxpayerwillkeepgettinghitwiththebill.”

With door-to-door visits, the state is only beginning to find out what theresidentswantinanewplan,Mr.Forbessaid.

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“I’velivedmywholelifehere,andI’mgoingtodiehere,”saidHiltonChaisson,whoraised10sonsontheislandandwantshis26grandchildrentogrowupina

similarway.(JoshHaner/TheNewYorkTimes)

The location of the new community has not been chosen. Chiefs of the twotribes present on the island — the Biloxi-Chitimacha-Choctaw and the UnitedHouma Nation— have debated who would be allowed to live there beyond theislanders themselves, andwhether some islanders could resettle elsewhere.One oftheplanners involved in the resettlement suggestedabuffer areabetween thenewcommunity and its surrounding neighborhood to reduce tension. Chief Naquinwantsalivebuffaloonsite.

Whathasbeendecided,andwhatwasessentialfortheislanders’support,isthatthemovebevoluntary.

“I’velivedmywholelifehere,andI’mgoingtodiehere,”saidHiltonChaisson,whoraised10sonsontheislandandwantshis26grandchildrentoknowthesame

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lifeoflivingofftheland.He conceded that the flooding has worsened, but, he said, “we always find a

way.”

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AREMOTEPACIFICNATION,THREATENEDBYRISINGSEAS

BYMIKEIVESPHOTOGRAPHSBYJOSHHANER

JULY2,2016

ClimatechangeisthreateningthelivelihoodsofthepeopleoftinyKiribati,andeventheislandnation’sexistence.Thegovernmentismakingplansforthe

island’sdemise.

TARAWA,KIRIBATI—ONECLEARbrightdaylastwinter,atidalsurgesweptoveranoceanembankmenthereintheremote,low-lyingislandcountryofKiribati,smashing through thedoors andwindowsofBetioHospital and spewing sandanddebrisacrossitsmaternityward.

Beero Hosea, 37, a handyman, cut the power and helped carry frightenedmothersthroughtherubbleandwatertoanearbyschool.

“Ifthenextoneiscombinedwithastormandstrongerwinds,that’stheendofus,”hesaid.“It’sgoingtocoverthiswholeisland.”

For years, scientists have been predicting that much of Kiribati may becomeuninhabitable within decades because of an onslaught of environmental problemslinkedtoclimatechange.Andforjustaslong,manyherehavepaidlittleheed.Butwhilescientistsarereluctanttoattributeanyspecificweatherortidaleventtorisingsea levels, the tidal surge lastwinter, knownas aking tide,was a chillingwake-upcall.

“Itshockedus,”saidTeanRube,apastorwiththeKiribatiUnitingChurch.“Werealized,O.K.,maybeclimatechangeisreal.”

Pacific island nations are among theworld’smost physically and economicallyvulnerabletoclimatechangeandextremeweathereventslikefloods,earthquakesandtropicalcyclones, theWorldBanksaid ina2013report.Whileworldpowershavesummit meetings to negotiate treaties on how to reduce and mitigate carbonemissions,residentsoftinyKiribati,aformerBritishcolonywith110,000people,aredebatinghowtorespondbeforeitistoolate.

MuchofKiribati,acollectionof33coralatollsandreefislandsscatteredacrossaswathofthePacificOceanabouttwicethesizeofAlaska,liesnohigherthansixfeet

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abovesealevel.Thelatestclimatemodelspredictthattheworld’soceanscouldrisefivetosixfeetby2100.Theprospectsofrisingseasandintensifyingstorms“threatenthe very existence and livelihoods of large segments of the population,” thegovernmenttoldtheUnitedNationsinareportlastyear.Halfofthe6,500-personvillageofBikenibeu,forinstance,couldbeinundatedby2050bysea-levelrisesandstormsurges,accordingtoaWorldBankstudy.

ResidentsofavillageinSouthTarawawadedthroughwaterduringhightidesthatfloodedtheregion,leavinghomesisolateduntilthewatersreceded.(Josh

Haner/TheNewYorkTimes)

The study lays outKiribati’s future in apocalyptic detail.Causewayswould bewashed away, crippling the economy; degraded coral reefs, damaged by warmingwater,wouldallowstrongerwavestoslamthecoast, increasingerosion,andwoulddisrupt the food supply, which depends heavily on fish supported by the reefs.

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Highertemperaturesandrainfallchangeswouldincreasetheprevalenceofdiseaseslikedenguefeverandciguaterapoisoning.

Even before that, scientists and development experts say, rising sea levels arelikelytoworsenerosion,creategroundwatershortagesandincreasetheintrusionofsaltwaterintofreshwatersupplies.

In response, Kiribati (pronounced KEE-ree-bas in the local language) hasessentially been drawing up plans for its demise. The government has promoted“migration with dignity,” urging residents to consider moving abroad withemployable skills. It bought nearly 6,000 acres inFiji, an island nationmore than1,000 miles away, as a potential refuge. Fiji’s higher elevation and more stableshorelinemakeitlessvulnerable.

AnoteTong, a formerpresidentwhopushed through theFiji purchase, said itwasalsointendedasacryforattentionfromtheworld.“Theissueofclimatechangeisreal,serious,andwe’dliketodosomethingaboutitifthey’regoingtotaketheirtimeaboutit,”hesaidinarecentinterview.

KianteataBwaurerei,70,hasdecidednottoreplanthiscropsinAbiangafter

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theywereinundated.(JoshHaner/TheNewYorkTimes)

Butpackingupanentirecountryisnoteasy,andmaynotbepossible.AndmanyKiribatiresidentsremainskepticaloftheneedtoprepareforaneventualitythatmaybedecadesaway.

The skeptics include the rural and less educated residents of the outer islandswho doubt they could obtain the skills needed to survive overseas, andChristianswhoputmorefaithinGod’sprotectionthaninclimatemodels.“Accordingtotheirbiblicalbelief,we’renotgoingtosinkbecauseGodistheonlypersonwhodecidesthefateofanycountry,”saidRikamatiNaare,thenewseditoratRadioKiribati,thestate-runbroadcaster.

As President Tong became a climate-change celebrity, invited to speak atconferences around the world, opponents accused him of ignoring problems backhome, such as high unemployment and infant mortality. They derided the Fijipurchase, for nearly $7 million, as a boondoggle; dismissed his “migration withdignity”as a contradiction in terms; andcalledhis talkof rising sea levels alarmistandanaffronttodivinewill.

Mr.Tong,havingservedthreeterms,wasnotallowedtorunforre-electionthisyear,but inMarchelections theoppositiondefeatedhisparty.Thenewpresident,TanetiMaamau,saidheplannedtoshiftpriorities.

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MenbuildingaseawalltoholdreclaimedlandinSouthTarawa.(JoshHaner/TheNewYorkTimes)

“Mostofourresourcesarenowdivertedtoclimate-change-relateddevelopment,butinfacttherearealsobiggerissues,likepopulation,thehealthofthepeople,theeducationof the people,” he said during an interview atParliament,which sits onreclaimedlandattheedgeofaturquoiselagoon.

“Climatechangeisaseriousissue,butyoucan’tdoverymuchaboutit,especiallyifabighurricanecomes,”headdedwithaheartylaugh.

The Fiji purchasewas not the first effort to addressKiribati’s perilous future.TheWorldBank-ledKiribatiAdaptationProgram,begunin2003,developedwater-management plans, built coastal sea walls, planted mangroves and installedrainwater-harvesting systems.Thebank says theproject,which cost$17.7million,hasconservedfreshwaterinTarawaandprotectedaboutonemileofKiribati’s710milesofcoastline.

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Buta2011government-commissionedreportcastdoubtonwhethertheWorldBankprojecthelpedKiribatiprepare forclimatechange.Andwhile themangrovesandwatermanagementplanshavehelped, a2014 study said the first roundof seawalls,madeofsandbags,hadprovedcounterproductiveandcausedmoreerosion.

ByTheNewYorkTimes

“Adaptationisjustthislong,ugly,hardslog,”saidthestudy’sleadauthor,SimonDonner, a professor of geography at the University of British Columbia inVancouver. “The idea that an outside organization can just come in withmoney,expertise and ideas and implement something easily is naïve. What you need isconsistent, long-term funding — the type of stuff that’s hard to pull off withdevelopmentaid.”

DenisJean-JacquesJordy,aseniorenvironmentalspecialistat theWorldBank,acknowledgedthat“wehadsomeissues”withthefirstseawallsbutsaidsubsequentonesmadeofrockwerebetterdesigned.

There is no shortage of ideas to avert Kiribati’s environmental fate. China’sconstruction of artificial islands in the South China Sea shows the promise of

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sophisticatedisland-engineeringtechnology,expertssay.Mr.TongcommissionedastudyonraisingKiribati’scoastline.

Butsuchmeasuresarefinanciallyunrealisticforaresource-poor,aid-dependentcountrylikeKiribati.“It’snotabouttheplacegoingunderwater,”ProfessorDonnersaid,notingthatsomeofKiribati’sislandshadactuallygrowninrecentyearsbecauseoflandreclamationornaturalcoastaldynamics.“It’saboutitbecomingprohibitivelyexpensivetolivein.That’stherealchallengeforKiribati.”

The parallel freshwater crisis is also fixable, at a cost.Clean drinkingwater isalreadyscarceonseveralislands,andsaltwaterfromhighoceantideshasinfiltratedsomewells.ManyresidentsofSouthTarawa,hometohalfthecountry’speople,nowgettheirdrinkingwaterexclusivelyfromrainwatertanks.Expertsworrythatassealevelsrise,Kiribati’sfragilegroundwatersupplywillfaceevengreaterrisks,whilethenext drought could quickly exhaust themunicipal supply and household rainwatertanks.Kiribaticouldinvestindesalinizationequipmentorshipindrinkingwater,butthisisacountrywithonlyonepavedroad.

“It’s all doable,” saidDougRamsay, the Pacific Rimmanager at theNationalInstituteofWaterandAtmosphericResearchinNewZealand.“It’sjustgoingtobeaveryexpensiveexercise.”

Another novel response gaining attention lately is the idea of applyinginternational refugee law— largely drafted afterWorldWar II to protect peoplefleeingpolitical,religiousorracialpersecution—tothoseforcedfromtheirhomesbecauseofclimatechange.

In2012, amigrantworker fromKiribati, IoaneTeitiota, applied for asylum inNew Zealand, arguing that he was unable to grow food or find potable water inKiribatibecauseofsaltwaterintrusion.Hislawyer,MichaelKidd,saidthedistinctionbetweenenvironmentalandpoliticalrefugeeswasarbitrary.“You’reeitherarefugeeoryou’renot,”hesaidinaninterview.

The courts rejected the argument, andMr. Teitiota was deported fromNewZealandlastyear.Mr.KiddsaidhehadappealedtotheOfficeoftheUnitedNationsHighCommissionerforHumanRights.

Still,migrationmaybecomeincreasinglyimportant.Mr.Tongsaidhehopedtopreparehis people tomovewith job-trainingprograms thatwouldmeet standardsrecognizedinAustraliaandNewZealand.

“The science of climate change is not 100 percent precise,” he said in theinterview.“Butweknowwithoutanyargumentthat,intime,ourpeoplewillhavetorelocateunlesstherearevery,verysignificantresourcescommittedtomaintainthe

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integrityoftheland.”CoastalthreatsareincreasinglycleartoresidentsofBuariki,anoceansidevillage

of thatched-roofhutsand toweringcoconutpalmson the islandofNorthTarawa.Erosion along the beach has already toppled dozens of coconut trees.TheWorldBank estimates that 18 to 80 percent of the village,which sits on a peninsula notmorethanafewhundredfeetwide,maybeunderwaterby2050.

Somevillagerssaidtheywereresignedtoleaving.“OurgovernmentalreadyhaslandinFijifortheKiribatipeople,soiftherearemorehightideshere,they’llbringpeopletolivethere,”saidKourabiNgauea,29.“Butitdependsonthegovernment,andiftheycansupportus.”

Othersseenoneedtoleave.“ThisiswhereIbelong,”AroitaTokamaen,76,saidasshepeeledacoconutonherpatio.“Iwouldratherstay.”

Thetidethatdamagedthehospitalherelastwinterwasanexceptionallystrongkingtide,asurgethatoccurstwiceayearwhenthemoonisclosesttotheEarth.Thewavesalsofloodedthethatched-roofedoutdoormeetingspaceofthelocalbranchoftheKiribatiUnitingChurch.

While some people were alarmed, the pastor, Ms. Rube, said she refused toaccepttheideathatKiribaticoulddisappear.

“WeareChristians,”shesaid.“Sowedon’tbelievethatGodcouldhavegivenusthisworldandthentakeitaway.”

ReportingforthisarticlewasfinancedbytheAccesstoEnergyJournalismFellowshipandDiscourseMedia.

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CLIMATECHANGECLAIMSALAKE,ANDANIDENTITY

BYNICHOLASCASEYPHOTOGRAPHSBYJOSHHANER

JULY7,2016

LLAPALLAPANI, BOLIVIA—THEWATER receded and the fish died. Theysurfaced by the tens of thousands, belly-up, and the stench drifted in the air forweeks.

ThebirdsthathadfedonthefishhadlittlechoicebuttoabandonLakePoopó,onceBolivia’s second-largest but now just a dry, salty expanse.Many of theUru-Muratopeople,whohad livedoff itswaters for generations, left aswell, joining anewglobalmarchofrefugeesfleeingnotwarorpersecution,butclimatechange.

“The lake was our mother and our father,” said Adrián Quispe, one of fivebrotherswhowereworking as fishermen and raising families here inLlapallapani.“Withoutthislake,wheredowego?”

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AgustinaRiosMoya,22,withherdaughterintheruinsofafamilyhouse.

DavidAlejoValero,6,withhayforhat-making.

AftersurvivingdecadesofwaterdiversionandcyclicalElNiñodroughts intheAndes,LakePoopóbasicallydisappearedinDecember.TherippleeffectsgobeyondthelossoflivelihoodfortheQuispesandhundredsofotherfishingfamilies,beyondthemigrationofpeopleforcedtoleavehomesthatarenolongerviable.

The vanishing of Lake Poopó threatens the very identity of the Uru-Muratopeople, theoldest indigenousgroup in thearea.Theyadaptedovergenerations totheconquestsoftheIncaandtheSpanish,butseemunabletoadjusttotheabruptupheavalclimatechangehascaused.

Only636Uru-Muratoareestimated to remain inLlapallapani and twonearbyvillages.Sincethefishdiedoffin2014,scoreshavelefttoworkinleadminesorsalt

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flatsupto200milesaway;thosewhostayedbehindscrapebyasfarmersorotherwisesurviveonwhatusedtobetheshore.

Emilio Huanaco, an indigenous judicial official, is down to his last bottles offlamingofat,usedforcenturies toalleviatearthritis.Hehasneverusedmedicationforhisachingknee.

EvaChoque,33,satnexttoheradobehomedryingmeatforthefirsttimeonaclothesline.Sheandherfourchildrenateonlyfishbefore.

They and their neighbors were known to nearly everyone in the area as “thepeopleofthelake.”SomeadoptedthelastnameMauricioafterthemauri,whichiswhattheycalledafishthatusedtofilltheirnets.TheyworshipedSt.Peterbecausehewasafisherman,rituallyofferinghimfisheachSeptemberatthewater’sedge,butthatcelebrationendedwhenthefishdiedtwoyearsago.

“This is a millenarian culture that has been here since the start,” said CarolRochaGrimaldi,aBoliviananthropologistwhoseofficeshowsasatellitepictureofafull lake,asceneno longervisible inreal life.“Butcanthepeopleof the lakeexistwithoutthelake?”

It is hard tooverstatehow central fishingwas toUru life.When aNewYorkTimesphotographer,JoshHaner,andIaskedMr.Quispewhetherhehadmadehislivingasafisherman,hegaveusastrangelookbeforeanswering,essentially,“Whatelseisthere?”

Menspentstretchesaslongastwoweekswithoutreturningtoshore,wanderingthe lake to follow schools of karachi, a gray fish that looked like a sardine, orpejerrey,whichhadbigscalesandgrewaslongasMr.Quispe’sarm.

Some wives worked alongside their husbands, to pull the nets and do thecooking,makingtheboatsakindofhome.

Fishing seasonbeganon the lake’s edgewith a ritual called theRemembering.TheQuispebrotherswereamongabout40Llapallapanimenwhowouldpassalongnightchewingcocaleafanddrinkingliquor.Together,thegrouprecitedthenamesofLakePoopó’slandmarksandhowtofindthem.

“Thatnight,wewouldaskforasafejourney,thattherewouldbelittlewind,thatthere wouldn’t be so much rain,” Mr. Quispe, 42, told us. “We remembered allnight,andwechewedourcoca.”

Inthemorning,themenwouldpaddleoutabovetheunderwaterspringsknownas jansuris. They would toss sweets from the boat as a religious offering. Fishingseasonhadbegun.

We were talking on a cloudless morning with a breeze that might have been

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perfectforaboatrideinanothertime.Now,thewindonlyunderscoredhowdrythelandscapehadbecome,astumbleweedsrolledbetweentheboatsabandonedontheoldlakebed.

Milton Pérez, an ecologist at Oruro Technical University, said scientists hadknown for decades thatLakePoopó,which sits at 12,140 feetwith few sources ofwater, fit the profile of what he called a dying lake. But the prognosis was incenturies,notyears.

“Weacceptedthelakewasgoingtodiesomeday,”Mr.Pérezsaid.“Nowwasn’titstime.”

Lake Poopó is one of several lakes worldwide that are vanishing because ofhuman causes. California’s Mono Lake and Salton Sea were both diminished bywater diversions; lakes in Canada and Mongolia are jeopardized by risingtemperatures.

GenerationsofUruhadwatchedthewaterrecedeandreturninwhathadalmostbecomeapredictablecycle.Inthe1990s,adryspellhitthatevaporatedthelakeintothree small ponds and destroyed the fisheries for several years. But the lakeeventuallyreturnedtoitsprevioussize.

TheUrupasseddownknowledgeaboutlivingonandaroundthelake.Crowdsoflargeblackbirdsonthehorizonwereaneasysignthatfishwerecongregatedbelow.They counted three distinct winds that could help or hurt: one from the west,anotherfromtheeast,andakindofsquallfromthenorthcalledthesaucarí,whichcansinkboats.

“Itawakensfromthenorthanditdoesn’tcalmdown,”Mr.Quispeexplained.“‘Thesaucaríiscoming,’we’dsay.‘Wecan’tgointothewateruntilitcalms!’”

The lake offered algae called huirahuira, which seemed to relieve coughs.Flamingos were like a pharmacy: In addition to the pink fat used to relieverheumatism,thefeathersfoughtfeverswhenburnedandinhaled.

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GabinoCepeda,hissister-in-lawandhisdaughterharvestingquinoa.

The villagers would catch and kill the flamingos in April, when the birds losttheirfeathersandwererenderedflightless.TheUruusedmirrorstocastsunlightinthebirds’eyes,makingthemfallasleeptemporarily,easyprey.

“Wetooksomanyofthesefromthelake,”saidMr.Huanaco,thejudicialleader,pullingoutabrightpinkwing fromthemudhutbehindhishome.Thedaysevenyearsagothathehuntedthebirddown,hehadnoideaitwouldbehislast.

Mr. Pérez, the researcher, watched with alarm as several threatening trendsdeveloped,andbegantounderstandthatthelakecouldevaporateforgood.

First, as quinoa became popular abroad, booming production of the graindivertedwaterupstream,loweringLakePoopó’slevel.Second,miningsedimentwasquicklysiltingthelakefrombelow.

And it was getting hotter. The temperature on the plateau had increased 0.9degreesCelsius, or about 1.6 degreesFahrenheit, from1995 to 2005 alone,muchfasterthanBolivia’snationalaverage.

“Wehadthepossibilitythatallthesefactorswouldhitwithasynergyneverseenbefore,”Mr.Pérezsaid.

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In thesummerof2014,arottensmellhung in theair.Thesurfaceof the lakehadfallensolowthatwhenthesaucaríwindhitfromthenorth,thegustskickeduptoomuchsiltforthefishtosurvive.

“It was enough to make you cry, seeing the fish swimming dizzy or dead,”GabinoCepeda,a44-year-oldfishermanwhohasturnedtofarmingquinoa,toldus.“Butthatwasjustthestart.Theflamingosaredead,theducksaregone,everythingelse.Wethrewoutournets,therewasnothingforus.”

Mr.Quispeandhisbrothersmetone last timeontheedgeof thedead laketoperformtheRemembering.Theypaddledoutastheyalwayshad,butreturnedthesamedaybecausetherewerenofish.

Theeldest,Teófilo,turnedtohisbrothers.“Thereisnowork,”hesaid.“Iwillfigureouthowtomakemoney.AndIwilltell

youhow.”Thenextweek,heleftLlapallapanitoworkinacoalmineanhour’sdriveaway.Pablo Flores, another Uru fisherman who left Llapallapani, starts a thankless

workday before sunrise inside a mill on the edge of the world’s largest salt flat,Bolivia’sSalardeUyuni.Hetakesblocksofunrefinedsalt,grindsthemdownintoapileashighasheistall,andputsthemintotinybags,earning25centsforeachfullone.

SomeoftheUru-Muratopeople,Bolivia’soldestindigenousgroup,nowworkin

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saltflats.

Outside the mill, it is more arduous. In the vast salt flat near the town ofColchani,wheretwodozenUruhaveresettled,daylaborersheadoutwithshovelsinthebacksoftrucks.Theygatherthesaltastheheatbeatsdownonthemfromaboveandreflectsupfromthewhiteexpansebelow.

“TheUrupeoplearen’tmadeforthis,”Mr.Flores,57,said.“I’mnotmadeforthis.Wecan’tdothiskindofwork.”

Inhisvillage,Puñaka,Mr.Floreswasarespectedelder.Hewasonceitsmayor,andpeoplewhoknewhimfromthatlifestillcallhimbytheSpanishhonorific“don.”Asafisherman,hewasalwayshisownboss.

Butatthesaltmine,hefeelslikejustanotherhiredhandtoexploit.

AlfredoChoque,onceafisherman,nowprocessessalt.

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“Thisisafeudalsystem,”hesaid.“Icansincerelysaythisisabadplace.”Lookingovertheheapofsalt,herememberedanoldlegend,aboutafloodthat

destroyedtheworld—exceptfortheUru,whoescapedontheirbalsaraftsandhidonahilltopwhenthewaterbegantorecede.Disastersweremeanttotaketheformofdeluge,notdrought,hesaid.

SomeUrumenhaveleftalone,sendingmoneybacktorelativeswhoremainonthelake.Butothers,likeMr.Flores,havetakentheirfamiliesintoanewworldthathasalreadybeguntransforminglifeinwayslargeandsmall.

FifteenUru live inMachacamarca, a dusty town of several thousand that wasonceastopalonganoldrailroadlinetothelake.MaríaFloresIgnacioandhertwoteenagechildrenmoved this spring intoa rentedapartment, a first forMs.Flores,whoseadobehomeinLlapallapaniwashandeddownthroughgenerations.

JuanaChoquehasbegunsellinghandicraftstomakeendsmeet.

“Iamlivinginsomeoneelse’shouse,”shesaidwithalongsigh.

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Topaytherent,Ms.Floresmakesstrawhandicraftsthatshesellstotouristsinthe state capital, Oruro, at a Saturday market. There are hats, baskets, bracelets,earringsandsmallboatsliketheonestheUruusedtonavigateLakePoopó.

BackinLlapallapani,Mr.Cepeda,thefisherman-turned-farmer,wantsout,too.Buthedoesn’thavethemoney.

Whenthefishdied,Mr.Cepedastakedhishopesonquinoa,anancientcropintheAndesthatisnowinvogueinWesterncountries.

ThedrybedofLakePoopó,nearLlapallapani,Bolivia.

Hehadinheritedtwohectaresofland—aboutfiveacres—fromhisfather.Hedidnotquiteknowhowtoplantquinoa,buthescatteredtheseedsinthegroundandhopedforthebest.

Instead of luck, Mr. Cepeda got a devastating frost, which struck in March.Picking up a handful of the quinoa, he showed us his meager harvest, mostlypulverized. It blew away from his palm.Only a few grains remained that weren’tdust.

ThelakehadalwaysbeenwhatmatteredtotheUru,nottheground,Mr.Cepedatoldus.Butthatwaschanging.

“Wefighteachothernow,”hesaid.“Hereismyland.Butsomeonesays,‘Now

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youareencroaching.’Andthensomeoneelsesays,‘No,that’smine.’”FranciscoFlores,now26,wasachildwhenhisgrandparentstoldhimaboutthe

daytheUru-Muratofirsttastedmeat.Itwasthestartofthe20thcentury,andtheUruhaddecidedtoleavethelake’s

floatingislandsmadeofreedsandmudandsettleonitsedge.Theyworeshoesforthe first time and gave up dressesmade of feathers or wool forWestern clothes.After centuriesof eatingonly fish, they tried lamb,Mr.Flores recalledbeing told,and“itwastough.”

A century later, the Uru have hit a crossroads again, but one not of theirchoosing.

“Iwanttoteachmychildtofish,”Mr.Floressaid,stoppingonthedirtroadthatleadstothecemeteryfilledwithhisforebears.“ButIcan’t.”

Anotherday,Mr.HanerandIfollowedFelixCondori,Llapallapani’smayor,toacitymarkettobuyvegetablesforthefirsttime.HeusedtobarterwiththeAymaraIndians,whosepastureslienorthofthevillage,tradingfishforpotatoesandquinoastraightfromhisboat.

Now, instead, he counted out bills from a wad with his wife andmother, thethreelookingconfused.

Themayor,whocarriesa caneused topunishvillagedelinquents, reachedoutwithhisotherhandtobuyabottleofAxedeodorantspray.

“Thisisallnewtous,”hesaid.On thehighwayback from the salt flatwithAdriánQuispeoneday,we sawa

flamingoperchedonthesideoftheroad,byastream100milesfromLakePoopó.ItmadeMr.Quispesuddenlyrememberthesouphismotherusedtomake.

Westoppedthecar,gotoutandwalkedintoawaterylandscapewithsnowcappedmountainsinthedistanceandbirdsinfrontofus.

“ThisiswhatLakePoopóoncelookedlike,”Mr.Quispesaid.Anhourbefore,IhadbeeninthesaltmillwithMr.Flores,theformerPuñaka

mayorwhomovedtoColchaniwithhiswifeandtwoyoungchildrentwoyearsago.WhenhelasttookthembacktoLlapallapaniforavisit,his6-year-olddaughter

said something that gave him chills. She was staring at what used to be the lake,havingneverreallyknownitnottobedry.

“Let’sgotoColchani,”shesaid.“Let’sgohome.”

ProducedbyGrayBeltran,HannahFairfield,AlexandraGarciaandMeaghanLooram.

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RESETTLINGCHINA’S‘ECOLOGICALMIGRANTS’

BYEDWARDWONGPHOTOGRAPHSBYJOSHHANER

OCTOBER25,2016

MIAOMIAOLAKEVILLAGE,CHINA—Ankle-deep sandblocked thedooroftheirnewhome.Pushingbicycles through theyardwas likewading inabog.The“lake”partofMiaomiaoLakeVillageturnedouttobenothingbutatinyoasismorethanamilefromthecookie-cutterrowsofsmallconcrete-blockhouses.

MaShiliang,avillagedoctorwhosefamilywasamongsome7,000HuiMuslimswhom theChinese government had brought to this place from theirwater-scarcelandsinthecountry’snorthwest,saidofficialspromised“wewouldgetrich.”Instead,these people who once herded sheep and goats over expansive hills now feel likepenned-inanimals,listlessanduncertainoftheirfuture.

“Ifwehadknownwhatitwaslike,wewouldn’thavemovedhere,”saidDr.Ma,41, who, three years on, has been unable to get a job practicing medicine inMiaomiaoLakeVillageortofindotherreliablework.

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TheMafamilyoutsidetheirnew580-square-foothomeinMiaomiaoLakeVillage.

Chinacalls them“ecologicalmigrants”:329,000peoplewhomthegovernmenthadrelocatedfromlandsdistressedbyclimatechange,industrialization,poorpoliciesand human activity to 161 hastily built villages. They were the fifth wave in anenvironmental and poverty alleviation program that has resettled 1.14 millionresidentsoftheNingxiaHuiAutonomousRegion,aterritoryofdunesandmosquesandcamelsalongtheancientSilkRoad.

Han Jinlong, the deputy director of migration under Ningxia’s PovertyAlleviation andDevelopmentOffice, said that although the earlierwaveswerenotexplicitly labeled ecological migrants, they had also been moved because of thegrowing harshness of the desert. It is theworld’s largest environmentalmigrationproject.

WhatChinaisdoinginNingxiaandafewotherprovinceshithardbydroughtandothernaturalandman-madedisastersisaharbingerofactionsthatgovernmentsaround the globe, including the United States, could take as they grapple withclimate change, which is expected to displace millions of people in the comingdecades.

China has been battered by relentless degradation of the land and worseningweatherpatterns,includingthenortherndrought.Butmassresettlementhasbroughtits ownprofoundproblems, embodied in the struggles of theMa family and theirneighbors.

Dr.Ma toldme over tea in his living room that each household had to pay a$2,100“resettlementfee”andwaspromisedaplotoflandtofarmasthefamiliesleftbehindplentifulfieldsandanimals.Butthosewhoreceivedplotsendeduphavingtoleasethemtoanagriculturecompany,andwereleftwithtinyfrontyards,wheretheMasgrowafewchiliplants.

The 11-member family was expected to squeeze into a 580-square-foot, two-bedroomhome;likemanyofthemigrants,Dr.Maerectedanextraroomwithwhiteplasticsidingintheyardforhisparents.

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TwoofDr.Ma’sdaughtersandhisgreat-niece,right,atelunchinclosequarters.

And the officials designing the new homes put toilets in the same room asshowers,anaffronttotheHuiMuslims.Dr.Madugapittoiletoutside,wherethefrontyardmeetstheroad.

Dr. Ma has not only been unable to get officials to appoint him as a villagedoctor here, but since November has also failed to find construction work —unstableandlow-paying,butthemostcommonjobforthevillagemen.Thefamilymustlivemainlyoffthe$12perdayhiswife,WangMei,earnsinanindustrialfarmfield.

TogetherwithDr.Ma,threeofDr.Ma’sbrothersandanephewbroughtatotalof38familymembersaspartoftheresettlement.Butanotherbrother,MaShixiong,wasoneofahandfulwhostayedbehindinYejiahevillage,a five-hourdrivesouth,defyingthegovernment’sorders.Officialstoredownthehomesofthefamilieswho

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left— and punished those who remained by refusing to renovate their houses orbuildthemanimalpens,anddenyingthemwaterpipelinesandsubsidiesforraisingsheepandcattle.

WangLin,who is also unemployed andwas one of eightmen I spoke to oneafternoon following prayers at Miaomiao Lake’s Ji’an Mosque, said he and eightfamilymembersplannedtoreturntoYejiahenextyearifhedidnotfindajob.

MaXinli,9,jumpingropeintherelocationvillage.

“Noonehasmovedbackyet,butpeopleare talkingabout it,” saidMr.Wang,48.“Wecanfarmthelandthere.Ourhomesarenolongerthere,butwecandigintotheearthandbuildacavehome.”

AsinmuchofnorthernChina,mostofNingxia’s26,000squaremilesaredesert,including the areas chosen for resettlement. Government officials say places likeMiaomiaoLakearestillanimprovementoverXihaigu—thevastregionofsouthernand centralNingxiawhere theMas and theothermigrants came from—because

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theyareclosertohighways;toYinchuan,Ningxia’scapital;andtotheYellowRiver,amajorwatersourcethathelpedgivebirthtoChinesecivilization.

WhenPrimeMinisterLiKeqiangvisitedNingxiainFebruary,hetoldvillagersthat “relocating impoverished people from bad natural conditions is an importantway to alleviate poverty,” according to the website of the State Council, China’scabinet.

A third of Ningxia’s population — and most of the people who have beenresettled—areHuiMuslim.SomeWesternscholarssaythatChineseresettlementpoliciesareatleastpartlyaimedatcontrollingethnicminoritypopulations,andthatofficialsmayciteenvironmentalreasonsasacover.

Thoughremote, theparchedXihaiguareahasbeenontheradarof thecentralgovernmentsinceatleastthe1980s,whenofficialsbeganproducingaseriesofgrimreports on the viability of the land. A recent estimate by researchers from theChinese Academy of Sciences and the Ministry of Land and Resources said theregioncouldsustainonly1.3millionpeople; thepopulation in2014wasabout2.3million.

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MaShixiongandhiswife,HuZhaibai,workedinapotatofieldinYejiahe.

“The government decided tomove people out because the land couldn’t feedthem,”Zhang Jizhong, thedeputydirectorof theNingxiaPovertyAlleviation andDevelopmentOffice, toldmewhen Imetwithhim andhis colleagueMr.Han intheir Yinchuan office in August. “The factors are rooted in history, nature andsociety.”

Rainfallwas increasingly rare.Villagershad cut downmany trees for firewoodandtobuildhomes,hesaid.Andthegovernmentneverbuiltenoughreservoirs.

AcrossNingxia,theaveragetemperaturehasrisenby2.1degreesCelsius,or3.8degreesFahrenheit, in the last 50 years,more thanhalf of that increase occurringfrom2001 to2010, according to abookbyMaZhongyu, a former seniorofficial,citingdatafromaninternationalstudy.Annualprecipitationhasdroppedabout5.7millimeters,oraboutaquarterinch,everydecadesincethe1960s.

Mr.ZhangsaidamaingoalofmovingpeoplefromXihaiguwastoturnthehillsgreen, with a parallel planting program. More than two million acres have beenconverted to forestandpasture land,he said, citing theGuyuanarea,where forestcoveragewas22percentlastyear,upfrom4percentinthe1980s.

“There are more wild animals and vegetables there now,”Mr. Zhang said ofXihaigu.“Whenwegothere,wecansometimeseatwildchicken.”

Whentheresettlementprogramwasbegunin1983,migrantsweregivenlandinthe north and told tomove and build new homes on their own. These days, thegovernmentbuildsthemhomes,albeitsmallones;ofthe$3billionspentonthefivewavesofrelocation,Mr.Zhangsaid,halfwasusedonthemostrecentone.

“Housesneed tobebuiltwell, roadsneed tobebuiltwell, schools need tobebuiltwell,”hesaid.“Itisalltheresponsibilityofthegovernment.”

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Tenfamilymembers,includingDr.Ma’smother,MaMeihua,center,sharethesmallhome.

Therelocationprocessbeginswiththegovernmentaskinggeologicalexpertstolook for sufficientarable landelsewhere inNingxia,Mr.Zhang said, thengaugingwhetherenoughwatercanbetransferredtothoseplaces.

Thesizeofeachfamily’syardplot isabout150squaremeters,or1,600squarefeet,with the house taking up a third of that.Many complain about the crampedquarters and the additional onemuof farmland—a sixthof an acre— that eachpersonisallottedinmostcases,farlessthantheyhadintheirhomevillages.

“Land and water are indeed becomingmore scarce in the north,”Mr. Zhangacknowledged. In the lastwaveof relocations,aquarterof the familiesdidnotgetanyland,hesaid,addingthatthegovernmenthadlabeledthem“labormigrants”andwas negotiating with companies to give them city jobs, including as cleaners andsecurityguards.

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Butofficialsknowthateventhosewhogetfarmlandfaceastruggle.“That is far from enough to get you out of poverty,”Mr.Zhang said. “It can

maybefeedyou.Thegovernmenthasbeenmakinglotsofeffortstogetpeopletobeabletoworkinothersectors,soyoudon’trelyonlanditselfforaliving.”

ThelargestofNingxia’snewmigrantvillages,BinheHomeland,hasmorethan16,000residents.Thesmallesthavejustafewhundredeach.MiaomiaoLakeisinthemiddle,with7,000.

The1,400homes there lookbland and anonymous, separatedby low concretewalls,withonlynumbers todistinguish them:Dr.Ma’s isHouse35 inDistrict 5.Mostvillageshaveanelementaryschool,amarketareaandmosques,butseemmorelikerefugeecampsthanorganiccommunities.

Dr.Ma’swife,WangMei,andothersleavingforworkinthewatermelonfields.

Oneafternoonduringoneofmythreerecentvisitstotheregion,Ms.Wang,Dr.Ma’swife,camehomefromthefarmtonapduringherlunchbreak.Shehadbeenupsincedawnspreadingfertilizeroverafieldofwatermelons.

Afterahalf-hour’ssleep,itwastimetoreturntothedesertsun.

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Shesaidgoodbye toDr.Maandtheiryoungerchildren,clad inred-and-whiteschooluniforms.Thenshedroveanelectriccarttoahighway,wheredozensofotherwomen in electric carts were gathering.Most wore pink head scarves, a shock ofcoloragainstthesandthatstretchedtothehorizon.

ByTheNewYorkTimes

The women clambered onto the flatbeds of two John Deere tractors, whichdroveofftothewatermelonfield.

“Thework is so exhausting, and I’mdead tired,” saidMs.Wang, 39. “I neverworked like this before,whenwewere living in the south. I farmedourown landthere,andwelivedourdaysaccordingtoourownschedule.”

Before themove,Ms.Wang imagined that the familywould grow foodon itsownpatchoffarmland,toeatandsell,asithaddoneinYejiahe.Butofficialsdecidedthatthevillagerswouldbebetteroffleasingtheplots—atotalof3,300acres—toa

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large company, Huatainong Agriculture, and other enterprises because the desertlandwashardtofarm.

“Newimmigrantsdon’treallyknowhowtoplantcropsontheland,”explainedWangZhigang,thedirectorofthePingluoCountypovertyalleviationoffice,addingthatmigrantfamilieshadtriedandfailed.

Each familymember is supposed to receive195 renminbiperyear,or$29, forleasingtheirland.Mr.Wangsaidthemoneyisdepositedannuallyinafamilybankaccount,butDr.Masaidhishouseholdhadnotreceivedthepaymentafterthefirstyear.

So the family’s only steady income is the $12 a day Ms. Wang is paid byHuatainong—lessthanthe$15perdaythatChinasaysistheaverageformigrantworkers.

Likemany inMiaomiaoLake,Dr.Mahastakenoutgovernment loanstohelpmeetthefamily’slivingexpenses.

Dr.Ma learned how to give shots years ago, after watching an older brotherwhose son got sick frequently.When the village of Yejiahe needed a doctor, thatgave him a leg up.His formal education had stopped before high school, but hestudiedmedicaltechniquesonhisown.Hereceivedhismedicallicensein2011.Hemostlyadministeredvaccinesandtreatedcoldsandotherminorillnesses.

ButDr.MasaidhecouldnotgetajobasadoctorinMiaomiaoLakebecausethegovernmenthadcreatedonlyonesuchpostthere,whichheconsideredabsurdforavillageof7,000.Hesaidthathehadrepeatedlyaskedthecountyhealthdepartmentto add a position for him, but that an official had told him the decision could bemadeonlyatahigherlevel.(AcountyhealthofficialsaidinaninterviewthattherewereplanstoaddtwodoctorstoMiaomiaoLake.)

Still,friendssometimesaskDr.Matoadministerashot.Inreturn,hesometimesasksfortheequivalentof$1.50.

Oneafternoon,afellowworshiperfromJi’anMosquecametoDr.Ma’shomeforan intravenousdripofcalciumgluconate,amineralsupplement.Themanlayonabed by the front window and held out his right arm. The doctor worked withprecision—andwithoutcharge.

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Dr.Ma,left,thoughnotanofficialvillagedoctor,gaveanIVdripofcalciumtoMaBininMiaomiaoLake.

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VendorsintheMiaomiaoLakemarket.“Businessisbad,”avendorsaid.

ItisdifficulttogetahandleonemploymentinMiaomiaoLake.Mr.Wang,thePingluoCountyofficial,saidofthe2,000ecologicalmigrantsinthevillagewhohad“theabilitytowork,”93percenthadjobs.AseniorexecutiveatHuatainongsaidthecompany employed 400 to 500 women for half the year, and about 100 at othertimes.Dr.Maandmanyothersdisputedtheofficialemploymentfigures,sayingthatmostmencouldnotfindregularworkonconstructionprojectsinthenewvillagesornearbycities.

Once each year, residents said, government officials have offered trainingsessionsofonetotwohourstoteachvillagershowtobecomeweldersorbricklayers.“Useless,”Dr.Masaid.“Therearen’tmanyjobsavailable.”

City-levelofficialsvisitedthevillageforadayinMay;Dr.Masaidoneofferedhimajobinacoal-washingfactoryinacity,buthe“didn’twanttogobecausethelifestylethereisdifferentthanours,”withfewHuiMuslimsandmanyethnicHan.

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Therewas also thematterofpride. “I’vebeen a villagedoctor,”he said. “Youcan’tjustmakemeacoal-mineworkernow.It’snotappropriate.”

Unable or unwilling to do manual or farm work, some of the migrants runrestaurants, pharmacies or other small businesses. Near the front archway of thevillage is a plaza lined with storefronts, but most were shuttered the morning Ivisited.Noonewasrentingthem.

I foundMaNüwa in theonlyopen shop alongone row.Shehadbeen sellingblanketsthereformorethantwoyears,andsaidshemadeabout$75permonth.

“Business is bad; there are no people here,” she said. “I have three boys.Myhusbandhastogooutsidetofindmanuallabor.”

Someout-of-workmenretreattothemosques,wherefivedailyprayersgivelifesome structure. Sometimes before going to pray,Dr.Ma showers, puts on a crispwhiteshirtandfixeshisskullcapjustright,adjustingitinthemirror.

Athishome, there are always children around.Theparents took the youngestdaughter,Shuyun,outofpreschoolbecausetheycouldnotaffordthe$150feeeachsemester.Theoldest,16-year-oldXiaofang,hadbeenenrolledinaboardingschool,butstoppedafterayearandahalf.

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MaShiliang,center,andotherHuiMuslimswaitedtobreakfastduringRamadaninJuneatMiaomiaoLake’sJi’anMosque.

“Idon’t like school, and Idon’twant togoback,” she toldmeoneday as shecookednoodlesforthefamilyforlunch.“IplantogotoYinchuanafterRamadantofindwork.”

ButDr.Masaid:“Myoldestdaughterisn’tgoingtoYinchuan.She’stooyoung.”TheroadtotheMas’oldvillage,Yejiahe,windsuphillpastareservoir,pasthills

covered with soft yellow silt, past horses and haystacks in people’s yards. Thelandscapeiswideandrollingandgreen,nothinglikeMiaomiaoLake.

We parked atop a ridge overlooking a valley. Dr. Ma’s brother Ma Shixionggreetedmeatthesideoftheroad,dressedinabluetunicandskullcap.Hisfacehadasmanycreasesasthehills.

He was the man who stayed behind, even as his extended clan, including hiselderly parents, had migrated northward. His wife, three of his sons and fourgrandchildren also remained in Yejiahe; two other sons worked at a restaurant inBeijing.About300villagersremained fromapopulationofabout1,400 in the late1990s.

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MaShixiongamidtheruinsofhisbrotherMaShiliang’sformerhomeintheoldvillageofYejiahe.

Hehandedmeacupofteainafrontroomwithabrickfloorandmudwallsthat,eveninthesummerheat,stayedcool.

“Wedidn’t have anyplans tomoveout there,”Mr.Ma, 50, saidofMiaomiaoLake.“Weknewwewouldonlybegivenonehouse.”

He toldmemanyYejiahe familieshada longhistoryofbeing relocatedat thewhimsofgovernmentofficials.Hisancestorslivedinsouth-centralNingxia,neartheYellowRiver,“averyeasyplacetolive,”hesaid.Morethan100yearsago,officialsundertheQingcourtorderedthefamilytomovetoYejiahe.

Decadesago,Communistofficialsdivided thevillage into five teams.TheMaswereinonecalledXiahe.Afewyearsago,officialstoldtheXiahefamiliestheyhadtorelocatetothenorth.Fiftyhouseholdsmoved;ninerefused.

Whysomechosetostay,evenatthecostoffracturingextendedfamilies,becameclearonceMr.Mawalkedmethroughhishome.

Comparedwithhisbrother’splaceinMiaomiaoLake,itmightaswellhavebeenanimperialpalace.Tworowsofroomsfacealargecourtyard.Thefamiliesoftwoofhis sons, each with two children, have their own quarters. The total area is 300squaremeters—3,229 square feet, twice the size of thehousingplots in thenewvillage.

Mr. Ma said he had visited his family a half-dozen times inMiaomiao Lake,beforetheirailingfatherdiedinFebruary2015.

“WhenIfirstsawthatplace—thatlittleyardandthelittlehouseandthelittlebathroominfrontofthedoor…”hesaid,trailingoff.“Thehygieneisnotgood.It’snotaverycivillifestyle.”

“Youdon’thaveland,andyouneedtogoouttofindjobs,”headded.“Howcanyoumakealiving?”

In Yejiahe,Mr.Ma had up to eight acres of land to farm, though occasionalfloodshaddestroyedsomefields.Behindhishomewasalargefieldofcornandoats.Thefamilysoldthosecropsaswellaspotatoesandmillet. In frontof thehouse,adonkeystoodinapen.

The family drew water from a well in the back, as villagers had done forgenerations.ThepeoplewhomovedtoMiaomiaoLakehadbeenrelievedtofinally

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get runningwater.Then they heard that soon after theymoved, pipelines for tapwaterhadbeeninstalledformuchoftheirformervillage.

But not for the Xiahe team members who defied the government relocationorder.Itwasasiftheywerephantomhouseholds,Mr.Masaid,wipedfromexistence.

Aswe talked, neighbors began crowding into the front room.Theyhadheardthat a reporter fromBeijingwas in town.Eachwanted tovoice a complaint aboutlocalcorruption.“It’saprimitivesocietyherebecausenoonecaresaboutus,”Mr.Masaid.

Thedaywasfading,andMr.Maledmeoutsidetoseehisbrothers’oldhomes.Weclimbedupahill,andthewidevalleystretchedoutinfrontofus.Mr.Maandhisneighborssaidtheareahadbeendryingupforyears;therewaslessrainthanadecadeago.

ButIcouldseepatchesofvegetationonthehills.SincetheXiaheteamleft,treesandshrubshadbeguntoreappear,Mr.Masaid.Fewerpeoplemeant lessstressontheland.

We reached a rise above the valley. In front ofmewaswhat remained of themud-wall home where Dr.Ma andMs.Wang had begun raising seven children.Officials had it knocked down, leaving blocks of earth and crumblingwalls in thedirt.

ForMaShixiong,thememoryofhisfourbrothers’departureinNovember2013wasasclearastheskyoverhead.Thefamilieshadloadedtheirfurnitureontotrucks.Theyhadboardedabusthenextmorning.

“Weall cried,”Mr.Masaid. “Theycried, I cried.Wewerea family, andnowwe’reseparated.Ihopetheywillmoveback,butit’simpossible.”

Wewalkedbackdowntheridge.Theafternoonshadowswerelengthening,andthehomesonthehillstoodsilentintheirruin.

KikiZhaoandSarahLicontributedresearch.

ProducedbyCraigAllen,GrayBeltran,HannahFairfield,DavidFurst,TaigeJensen,MeaghanLooram,andJeremyWhite.

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AWRENCHINGCHOICEFORALASKATOWNSINTHEPATHOFCLIMATECHANGE

BYERICAGOODEPHOTOGRAPHSBYJOSHHANER

NOVEMBER29,2016

SHAKTOOLIK,ALASKA— INTHEdream, a stormcame andBetsyBekoalokwatchedtheriverriseononesideofthevillageandtheoceanontheother,thewaterswallowingupthebrightlycoloredhouses,thefishingboatsandthefour-wheelers,theschoolandtheclinic.

Shedived intothe floodwaters, franticallysearching forherson.Bodiesdriftedpastherinthehalf-darkness.Whenshefinallyfoundtheboy,he,too,waslifeless.

“Ipickedhimupandbroughthimbackfromtheocean’sbottom,”Ms.Bekoalokremembered.

TheInupiatpeoplewhoforcenturieshavehuntedandfishedonAlaska’swesterncoastbelievethatsomedreamsareportentsofthingstocome.

ButhereinShaktoolik,oneneednotbeaprophettopredictflooding,especiallyduringthefallstorms.

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ByTheNewYorkTimes

LaidoutonanarrowspitofsandbetweentheTagoomenikRiverandtheBeringSea, the village of 250 or so people is facing an imminent threat from increasedfloodinganderosion,signsofachangingclimate.

WithitsproximitytotheArctic,Alaskaiswarmingabouttwiceasfastastherestof theUnitedStates and the state isheading for thewarmestyearon record.Thegovernmenthas identified at least 31Alaskan towns and cities at imminent riskofdestruction, with Shaktoolik ranking among the top four. Some villages, climatechangeexpertspredict,willbeuninhabitableby2050,theirresidentsjoiningaflowofclimaterefugeesaroundtheglobe,inBolivia,China,Nigerandothercountries.

These endangered Alaskan communities face a choice. They could move tohigherground,awrenchingprospect that forasmallvillagecouldcostasmuchas$200million.Or theycould stand theirgroundandhope to findmoney to fortify

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theirbuildingsandshoreuptheircoastline.

AdiscardedtoysnowmobileinShaktoolik,Alaska.

Atleasttwovillagesfartherupthewesterncoast,ShishmarefandKivalina,havevotedtorelocatewhenandiftheycanfindasuitablesiteandthemoneytodoso.Athird,Newtok, in the soggyYukon-KuskokwimDelta farther south, has taken thefirststepstowardamove.

But,afteryearsofmeetingsthatlednowhereandpleasforgovernmentfinancingthatremainedunmet,Shaktoolikhasdecideditwill“stayanddefend,”atleastforthetimebeing,themayor,EugeneAsicksik,said.

“Wearedoingthingsonourown,”hesaid.The tinyCessna carrying two visitors touches down lightly on the thin gravel

stripthatinShaktoolikservesasanairport.Itismid-September,andwiththecommercialfishingseasonover,thevillageis

preparingforwinter.Moosemeat simmersonthestove in thehouseofMatildaHardy,presidentof

theNativeVillageofShaktoolikCouncil.JeanMute,thepastor’swife,stoopstopickcranberriesforpreservesinafieldjustoutsidetown.

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Villageteenagerslearnsubsistenceskillslikehunting.

Bytheriver,afishermanworksonhisboat,preparingittohuntbelugawhalesinthe shallowwaters of theNorton Sound. In the evening, a boy outside the snackshopwherechildrendrinkfruitslushiesandmunchonKit-Katbarsproudlyholdsupafatgooseheshotintheday’shuntingexpedition.

Theoceaniscalm,butbadweatherisalreadyonpeople’sminds.“I’m wondering what our fall storms will bring,” Ms. Hardy says. As of late

November,therehadbeenonehightide,butnoseverestorm.InShaktoolik,asinothervillagesaroundthestate,residentssaywinterisarriving

laterthanbeforeandrushingprematurelyintospring,ashiftscientiststietoclimatechange.With rising ocean temperatures, the offshore ice and slush that normallybufferthevillagefromstormsurgesandpowerfuloceanwavesaredecreasing.Lastwinter,forthefirsttimeeldersherecanremember,therewasnooffshoreiceatall.

The battering delivered by the storms has eaten away at the land around thevillage,whichoccupies1.1squaremilesonathree-milestripof land.Accordingtooneestimate,thatstripislosinganaverageof38,000squarefeet—oralmostanacre—ayear.Floodingfromtheoceanandtheswollenriverwatershasbecomesosevere

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thatthelastbigstormcameclosetoturningShaktoolikintoanisland.“Thatwas pretty scary,” saidAgnesTakak, the administrative assistant for the

village’s school.“It seemed like thewaveswouldwashrightoverandcoverus,butthankfullytheydidn’t.”

As Shaktoolik and other threatened villages have discovered, both staying andmovinghavetheirperils.

The process of relocation can take years or even decades. In the meantime,residentsstillneedtosendtheirchildrentoschool,gotothedoctorwhentheyaresick,havefunctioningwaterlinesandfueltanksandasafeplacetogowhenaseverestormcomes.

Thefallstormsalmostalwayscomeatnight,hurlinglogsontothebeachandshakingwindows.

Butfewgovernmentagenciesarewillingtoinvestinmaintainingvillagesthataremenacedbyerosionandflooding,especiallywhenthecommunitiesareplanningtopullupstakesandgoelsewhere.

“It’s a real Catch-22 situation,” said Sally Cox, the state’s coordinator for thenativevillages.

Evenannouncingtheintentiontorelocatecanscuttleacommunity’srequestfor

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financing.Someyearsago,whenShaktoolikindicatedonagrantproposalthatitwashopingtomove,itlostfundsforitsclinic,saidIsabelJackson,thecityclerk.

Shaktoolik’sleadershaveidentifiedapotentialrelocationsite11milessoutheast,nearthefoothills.Butsomeresidentssaytheyfearthattheirculture,dependentonfishingandhunting,willsufferiftheymove.AndEdgarJacksonSr.,aformermayor,said that thegovernment turneddownapplications formoney tobuilda road thatwould serve both as away to get buildingmaterials to their new home and as anevacuation route.Residents currently have no reliableway to escape quickly in anemergency.

“Wecalled itan ‘evacuation’road,a ‘relocation’road,”Mr.Jacksonsaid.“Thestateandfederalgovernmentdidn’tlikethosetwowords.”

EdgarJacksonSr.,herewithhiswife,Helen,wasmayorwhenShaktoolikdecidedtomovefromits“oldsite.”

Shaktoolik—thenamemeans“scatteredthings”inanativelanguage—hasbeenforcedtomovetwicebeforeinitshistory.TheEskimotribesthattraveledfromthenorthintotheregioninthemid-1800sfoundanEdenofberryfields,tundrawheremoose and herds of caribou grazed and waters where salmon, seals and beluga

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flourished.Bytheearly1900s,theyhadsettledintoasitesixmilesuptheShaktoolikRiver.

But in the 1930s, the federal Bureau of Indian Affairs, responsible for providingeducational services to Native Americans, built a two-room schoolhouse on thecoastal sand spit, and the residentswere compelled tomove there if their childrenweretogotoschool.

The“oldsite,”asvillageresidentscall it,waswheremanyelders inShaktoolikgrewup;theskeletalremainsofthebuildingsarestillstanding,aghosttownthatsitsthreemilesfromthevillage.

Butthatlocation,chosenbythefederalgovernment,putShaktoolikatthemercyofthefiercestormsthatbarreledintothesoundfromtheAleutianIslands.

Afteraseriesofclosecallsinthe1960s—oneseverestormdestroyedboatsandleft the airport litteredwith driftwood,making it impossible for planes to land—anothermoveseemedinevitable.

Twonewsiteswereproposed,oneonhighergroundnearthefoothills,theotherthespotthevillagenowoccupies.

Ataseriesofthreepublicmeetings,theresidentsdebatedthechoices.Mr. Jackson,whowasmayorat the time, recalled thatheandhiswifewere in

favorofmovingtohigherground.“Thatwouldhavesolvedourproblems,”hesaid.“Butmajorityruled.Wewere

shortthreevotes.”Whenthefallstormscome,theyalmostalwayscomeatnight,thewaveshurling

giantdriftwoodlogsontothebeachliketoothpicks,theriverrising,thewindshakingthewindowsofthehousesthatsitintwoorderlyrowsalongShaktoolik’ssingleroad.

Childrenwho in summer play outside long after dark hunker downwith theirparents, listeningtotheCBradioannouncements thatserveas thevillage’scentralformofcommunication.

BigstormsonAlaska’swestcoastaredifferentfromthosethatthreatenMiamiorNewOrleans.TheycancarrytheforceofaCategory1hurricane,buttheirdiameterisfiveto10timesgreater,meaningthattheyaffectalargerareaandlastlonger,saidRobert E. Jensen, research hydraulic engineer at the Army Corps of EngineersResearchandDevelopmentCenter.

“They’rehuge,”hesaid.

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ChildrenplaynearthebrightlycoloredhousesthatlineShaktoolik’ssingleroad.

Someresidentsheresaythatthestormsarebecomingmorefrequentandmoreintense,althoughscientistsdonothavedatatoconfirmthis.Butthereisnoquestionthat higher ocean temperatures have resulted in less offshore ice, allowing stormsurgesandwavestohitwithgreaterforceandbringingmorefloodinganderosion.

Thelossofseaice,saidDavidAtkinson,aclimatescientistattheUniversityofVictoriainBritishColumbia,is“undeniablylinked”toawarmingclimate,asistherising levelof theseaasaresultofmeltingglaciers, the increasedvolumeofwaterlendingevenmorestrengthtotheocean’sassault.

Fifty years ago, when the beach was a quarter of a mile away, the increasingviolenceof theoceanmightnothavebotheredShaktoolik’sresidents.Butnowtheseaisalmostattheirdoorsteps.

At one time,Ms.Hardy, the council president, could see the beach from herwindow.

Now she looks out instead on a berm, amile-long, seven-foot-highmound ofdriftwoodandgravelbuiltbythevillageasabarrieragainstanangryocean.

Two state engineers cameupwith the idea, but they ranout ofmoneybefore

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theyproducedadesign.MayorAsicksikdecidedtogoaheadanyway.Localmenhauledthegravelfrom

themouthoftheriverinoldmilitarytrucksboughtfor$9,000eachandfinishedtheprojectinlessthanfourmonths.

Residentshereareproudoftheberm:Itisasymboloftheirdeterminationtofixtheirownproblemswithouthelpfromthegovernment.

But most also realize that the makeshift barricade is only a stopgap; somequestionwhetheritwilllasteventhroughonebigstorm.

“Ithasn’tbeentestedyet,”Ms.Hardysaid.Shaktoolik faces other threats that will be difficult or impossible to ward off

withoutassistance.

Returningtoshore.EskimotribeshavehuntedBelugainthisregionforthousandsofyears.

Erosion is threatening thevillage’s fuel tanks, itsairportand itsdrinkingwatersupply,whichispumpedfromtheTagoomenikRiver.Theboundarybetweenriverandseahasbeensothinnedbyerosioninsomespotsthatsaltwaterfromtheocean,normallyabenignsourceofsustenance,brieflyovertoppedthebankandpouredinto

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theriverduringarecentstorm.The land continues todisintegrate.TheArmyCorpsofEngineers assessment,

whilecautioningthatitsconclusionswerebasedonlimiteddata,estimatedthatthespitthatShaktooliksitsoncouldlose45acresby2057,withrisingwaterthreateningfueltanks,commercialbuildingsandtheairstrip.

Butthemosturgentchallengeiskeepingvillageresidentssafeintheeventofadisaster.

Shaktoolik’scurrentemergencyplancallsforpeopletogatherinsidetheschool.Buttheschoolbuilding,whichsitsontheoceansideoftheroad,isitselflikelytobeflooded and is not large enough to comfortably accommodate everyone, even if itstaysdry.

SomefamilieshavesaidthatinaseverestormtheywouldfleeuptheShaktoolikRiver.Theykeeptheirboatsstockedwithsupplies.Buttheriver,MayorAsicksikandotherssaid,wouldalmostcertainlybeice-filledandtreacherous,andanyattempttoescapewouldlikelyendinasearchandrescueoperation.

Eventheairportisrisky.CarvenScott,AlaskaregionaldirectorfortheNationalWeatherService,whorecentlyvisitedShaktoolik,saidthatafterHurricaneIrenehittheEastCoast in2011, the serviceconductedanassessment for future stormsandconcluded that the several million people who lived in vulnerable areas of theNortheastcouldbeevacuatedinabout12hours.

AsimilarevacuationinShaktoolik,Mr.Scottsaid,mighttakefivedays.Withbadweatherconditionsandlowlight,“thechancesarewecouldnotgeta

sizableaircraftintherefarenoughinadvancetoevacuate,”hesaid.“You’dhavetotakepeopleoutingroupsof10orless.”

Yetifitistostayput,thevillagemustfindawaytopreventlossoflife,ifnotthelossofproperty.

“Theydonotwant tomoveandIhave toaccept that,” saidDavidWilliams,aprojectengineerfortheAlaskadivisionoftheCorpsofEngineersandamemberofaninteragencygroupthatishelpingendangeredvillagesplanforthefuture.

“Butiftheywanttolivehere,”Mr.Williamssaid,“theyhavetohaveawaytogetoutofDodgewhengettingoutisrequired.”

KirbySookiayak,thevillage’scommunitycoordinator,sitsinhisofficeandticksoffthecommunity’swishlist:anevacuationroad;improvementstothewatersystemand the fuel tank farm; increased fortificationof the berm; floodlights and lightedbuoysfortheriver;anewhealthclinic;afortifiedshelterforresidentsinastorm.

The estimated price tag for these improvements? Well over $100 million,

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accordingtoShaktoolik’srecentlycompletedstrategicmanagementplan.Andwhilestateandfederalagencieswillfinancesomeroutinework,itwillnotevenbeclosetowhatisneeded.

No one knows where the additional money will come from. Despite years ofgovernmentreportscallingforaction,sporadicburstsoffinancingandavisittotheregion byPresidentObama last year, the hundreds ofmillions of dollars itwouldtakeforAlaska’sthreatenedvillagestostaywheretheyare—ortomoveelsewhere—havenotmaterialized.

InKivalinaandShishmaref,theCorpsofEngineerswasabletobuildsturdyrockrevetmentstoarmorthevillages,authorizedbyCongressin2005todosoatfederalexpense.But the lawwas rescinded four years later, and the corps candonothingmorewithoutthevillagescomingupwithmatchingfundsoftheirown.

The state of Alaska — which in the past provided some funds to Newtok,allowingtheYupikcommunitytobeginitsmoveacrosstherivertosafety—isinafiscal crisis, its economichealth tied tooil revenues.Anda federal lawsuit filedbyone village against oil and coal companies, seeking relocation money ascompensationfortheirairpollution,wentnowhere.

Shaktoolik is scheduled to receive$1million from theDenaliCommission, anindependentfederalagencycreatedin1998tohelpprovideservicestoruralAlaskancommunities.Butthemoneywillnotgofar:somewillhelppayforanewdesigntofortify the berm, while the rest is intended to help protect the village’s fuel tankstorage.

Perhaps the largest potential contribution is the $400 million allocated forrelocatingthreatenedvillagesintheObamaadministration’sproposed2017budget.Butwithanewadministration,thefateofthatallocationisatbestuncertain.

“Iwishthey’dcomeandspendonedayinoneofourstorms,”AxelJackson,whositsonthevillagecouncil,saidofpoliticiansinWashington.Thefederalgovernmentspendsbillionsonwarsinforeigncountries,hesaid.”Buttheystilltreatuslikewe’reathirdworldcountry.”

ProducedbyCraigAllen,GrayBeltran,HannahFairfield,DavidFurst,TaigeJensen,MeaghanLooramandJeremyWhite.

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HEAT,HUNGERANDWARFORCEAFRICANSONTOA‘ROADONFIRE’

BYSOMINISENGUPTAPHOTOGRAPHSBYJOSHHANER

DECEMBER15,2016

AGADEZ,NIGER—THEWORLDdismisses themaseconomicmigrants.Thelaw treats them as criminalswho showup at a nation’s borders uninvited.PrayersaloneprotectthemonthejourneyacrossthemercilessSahara.

Butpeelbackthelayersoftheirstoriesandyoufindacomplexbundleoftroubleand want that prompts the men and boys ofWest Africa to leave home, endurebeatingsandbribes,boardasmuggler’spickuptruckandtrytomakealivingfar,faraway.

Theydoitbecausetherainshavebecomesofickle,thedaysmeasurablyhotter,thedroughtsmorefrequentandmorefierce,makingit impossibletogrowenoughfood on their land. Some go to the cities first, only to find jobs are scarce. Somecomefromcountriesruledbydictators,likeGambia,whoselongtimerulerrecentlyrefused to accept the results of an election he lost. Others come from countriescrawlingwithjihadists,likeMali.

InAgadez,afabledgatewaytownofsandandhustlethroughwhichhundredsofthousandsexittheSahelontheirwayabroad,Imetdozensofthem.OnewasBoriBokoum,21,fromavillageintheMoptiregionofMali.FightersforAlQaedaclashwithgovernmentforcesinthearea,oneofmanyreasonsmakingalivinghadbecomemuchharderthaninhisfather’stime.

Onebadharvestfollowedanother,hesaid.Notenoughriceandmilletcouldbeekedoutofthesoil.So,asateenager,heventuredouttosellwatchesinthenearestmarkettownforawhile,thenworkedonafarminneighboringIvoryCoast,savingupforthisjourney.Libyawashisdestination,thenmaybeacrosstheMediterraneanSea,toItaly.

“To try my luck,” was how Mr. Bokoum put it. “I know it’s difficult. Buteveryonegoes.Ialsohavetotry.”

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AdouIssalookingoverhisstuntedcropsintheZinderregionofNiger.

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Collectingwaterafteralongdrivethroughthedesert.

This journeyhasbecomea riteofpassage forWestAfricansofhisgeneration.Theslowburnofclimatechangemakessubsistencefarming,alreadyriskybusinessinahot,aridregion,evenmoreofagamble.Pressuresonlandandwaterfuelclashes,big and small. Insurgencies simmer across the region, prompting United StatescounterterrorismforcestokeepwatchfromabaseontheoutskirtsofAgadez.

Thisyear,morethan311,000peoplehavepassedthroughAgadezontheirwaytoeitherAlgeriaorLibya,andsomeonwardtoEurope,accordingtotheInternationalOrganization for Migration. The largest numbers are from Niger and its WestAfricanneighbors,includingMr.Bokoum’shome,Mali.

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ByTheNewYorkTimes

Scholars ofmigration count people likeMr.Bokoum among themillionswhocould be displaced around the world in coming decades as rising seas, wideningdeserts anderraticweather threaten traditional livelihoods.For themenwhopourthroughAgadez,thesehardshipsaretangledupwithintenseeconomic,politicalanddemographicpressures.

“Climatechangeon itsowndoesn’t forcepeople tomovebut it amplifiespre-existingvulnerabilities,”saidJaneMcAdam,anAustralianlawprofessorwhostudiesthetrend.Theymovewhentheycannolongerimagineafuturelivingofftheirland

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—orasshesaid,“whenlifebecomesincreasinglyintolerable.”But many of these people fall through the cracks of international law. The

United Nations 1951 refugee convention applies only to those fleeing war andpersecution, and even that treaty’s obligation to offer protection is increasinglyfloutedbymanycountrieswaryofforeigners.

Insuchapoliticalclimate,policymakerspointout,thechancesofexpandingthelaw to include those displaced by environmental degradation are slim to none. Itexplains why the more than 100 countries that have ratified the Paris climateagreement this year acknowledged that environmental changes would spur themovementofpeople,butkickedthecandowntheroadonwhattodoaboutthem.

CropsaredifficulttogrowinthedrylandscapeoftheZinderregionofNiger.

Many migrants pass through Agadez from the villages around Zinder, a cityroughlysituatedbetweenthemouthoftheSaharaandNiger’sborderwithNigeria.Until1926,ZinderwasNiger’scapital.Thenitranlowonwater.

Earlyonegray-yellowmorning,IsetofffromZinderforavillagecalledChana,thehomeofoneofthemigrantsIhadmet,HabibouIdi.Rowsuponrowsofmilletgrewonboth sidesof the two-lanenationalhighway,punctuatedoccasionallybya

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spindly acacia. About an hour outside the city, some boys were raking the soil,yankingoutweeds.

An olderman sitting to the side said that backwhen hewas a boy, themilletstoodsohighthatyoucouldhardlyseeworkers in the fields.Midwaythroughthegrowingseason,itnowbarelyreachestheirknees.

Anhourfartheroutofthecity,weveeredoffthepavedroadandacrossabarren,ruttedfield.

In Chana, there was a steady thud of women pounding beans with woodenpestles.Thebeansgrewalongtheground,intheshadeofthemillet.Theyweretheonly crop ready for harvest. And so the people of Chana ate beans,morning andnight:beanspounded,boiled,flavoredwithsalt.

AsMr. Idi, 33, led me through his fields, he recalled hearing stories of whatChana looked likebefore agreatdrought swept across theSahel in the1970s and1980s.Thevillagewasencircledbytrees,hewastold.

Back then, likemost villagers,his fatherhada cowandplentyof sheep.Theirdroppingsfertilizedtheland.Today,Mr.Idisaid,notasinglecowisleftinChana.Theyweresoldtobuyfood.

Mr.Idicomplainedthattherainsarenowhardtopredict.SometimestheycomeinMay, and he rushes out to plant his millet and beans, only to find the cloudsclosingupandhiscropswithering.Evenwhenagoodraincomes,itjustfloods.Mostofthetreesaregone,theywerecutforfirewood.

Living off the land is no longer an option, so unlike his father or grandfatherbefore him,Mr. Idi has spent the last several years working across the border inNigeria—haulinggoods,wateringgardens,whateverhecouldfind.

This summer, for the first time,heboardedabus toAgadez, and thena truckacrossthedunestoAlgeria.There,hemostlybegged.

Helastedonlyafewmonths.TheAlgerianauthoritiesroundeduphundredsofNigeriensanddepositedthem

backinAgadez.That iswhere Imet him, in a line for the bus back toChana. Sand filled the

breast pocket of his tunic. He was bringing home a blanket, a collection ofsecondhand clothes and 50,000 CFAs (the local currency, pronounced SAY-fas),worthabout$100.

Thatdidnot last long,either.Mr.Idiarrivedhometo findthathis familyhadtakenout a loanofnearly the sameamount inhis absence.Theyhad sold fouroftheirfivegoats,too.Thereweremanymouthstofeed:hiswife,theirfourchildren,

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plushislatebrother’sseven.

Amalnourished,2-year-oldchildataclinicrunbytheAllianceforInternationalMedicalActionintheMirriahregionofNiger.

Sub-Saharan Africa is in the throes of a population boom, which means thatpeoplehavetogrowmorefoodpreciselyatatimewhenclimatechangeismakingitallthemoredifficult.Fertilityratesremainhigherthaninotherpartsoftheworld,and Niger has the highest in the entire world: Women bear more than sevenchildrenonaverage.

Onceeverythreeyears,accordingtoscientistsfromtheFamineEarlyWarningSystemsNetwork,orFEWSNet,Nigerfacesfoodinsecurity,oralackofadequatefood to eat. Hunger here is among the worst in the world: About 45 percent ofNiger’schildrenunder5sufferfromchronicmalnutrition.

Meanwhile, inwhat isalreadyoneof thehottestplacesonEarth, ithasgottensteadilyhotter:by0.7degreesCelsiussince1975,FewsNethasfound.Otherplacesintheworldarewarmingfaster,forsure.ButthisistheSahel,wheredaytimehighsoften soar well above 45 degrees Celsius (113 Fahrenheit) and growing food insandy,inhospitablesoilisalreadydifficult.

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Niger’sneighborssharemanyofthosewoes.InMali,temperatureshavegoneupby0.8degreesCelsiussince1975.Summerrainshaveincreased,butarenotatthelevelstheywerebeforethedrought.

In Chad, temperatures have risen by 0.8 degrees Celsius in the same period,according to FEWS Net. The group, which is financed with United Statesassistance,haswarnedthatcerealproductioncoulddropby30percentpercapitaby2025.

Chad iswhereFEWSNet’s chief representative for theSahel, ameteorologistnamedAlkhalilAdoum,wasborn in1957.Asaboy,he lovedrunningthroughtheblinding rainsof summer,whenyoucouldn’t even seewhatwas aheadof you.Heknewagoodrainwouldfillthesavannawithwildfruit,andthefirstgreenshootsofsorghumwould taste as sweet as sugar cane.His family’s cows, once they atenewgrass,wouldgivemoremilk.

AcampontheoutskirtsofAgadezthatoftenservesasastoppingpointforpeopleheadedtoAlgeriaorLibya.

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A9-year-oldgirlwhohadtraveledtoAlgeriawithhermother,onlytobedeportedtoNiger.

“You love the first rains,”Mr.Adoumsaid.“Youknow,asakid, there’sbettertimesahead.”

Thoserainsdon’tcomeanymore,hesaid.There are conflicting scientificmodels about the effects of climate change on

precipitation:somesaymuchofsub-SaharanAfricawillbewetter;othersdrier.Themain points of agreement is that the rainy seasonwill bemore unpredictable andmoreintense.Ontopofthat,thehottestpartsofthecontinentwillgethotter.

Extremeheat can have grievous consequences on food and disease, theWorldFoodProgram found in a surveyof scientific studies.Malaria-carryingmosquitoesthriveinit.Pestsaremorelikelytoattackcrops.Cornandwheatyieldsdecline.

Astudy,publishedinDecemberbytheInternationalMonitoringDisplacementCenter,foundthatin2015alone,sudden-onsetdisasterdisplaced1.1millionpeople

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inAfricafromonepartoftheircountrytoanother.Andthenthereisthecompetitionoverwater.Already,itsetsoffclashesbetween

farmersandherders,oftenhardenedbyethnicdivisions.Agrowingbodyofresearchsuggests that local droughts, especially in poor, vulnerable countries, heighten theriskofcivilconflict.

Riskanalysts, includingat theLondon-based firmVeriskMaplecroft, concludethatclimatechangeamplifiestherisksofcivilunrestacrosstheentiremidsectionofsub-SaharanAfrica,fromMaliinthewesttoEthiopiaintheEast.

AgrislyexampleliesinfulldisplayjustafewhoursbyroadfromMr.Idi’svillage.In the southeastern corner of the country, whereNigermeetsNigeria,Chad andCameroon, more than 270,000 people huddle for safety from the Boko Haraminsurgency. Altogether, across the Lake Chad Basin, 2.4 million people have fledtheirhomes,accordingtotheUnitedNations.

Agadez is a city of mud-brick compounds with high walls and blazing brightmetaldoors.Forcenturies,itwasfilledwithtradersandnomads.Inrecentdecades,it was a tourist magnet, until ethnic rebellions and then jihadist violence drovepeopleaway.

Today,migrationisthemainindustry.Drivers,smugglers,moneychangers,sexworkers, police officers— everyone lives off themen on themove. It is a city ofdreams,bothbuddingandbroken. It iswhere the journeyacross thedesertbeginsforsomanyyoungWestAfricanmen,anditiswherethejourneyends,whentheyfail.

Thesmugglers’denwhereIfoundMr.Bokoum,the21-year-oldfromMali,wasa set of two adjoining courtyards, with two concrete-floored rooms.Upside-downjerrycansservedasstools,plasticmatsassofas.

Hehadbeen inAgadez for threemonths,waiting for hismother to sendhimmoney.Itcancost350,000CFAs—about$600—togetfromAgadeztotheLibyanborder,onthebackofapickuptruck.

Thesmugglershadalsostartedoutasmigrants,andmostofthemworkedforawhileinLibya.Now,theymakemoneyoffothermen’sjourneys.Nonewouldhintathowmuch.

Mohamed Diallo, a Senegalese manager of the compound, blamed Westerncountries for spewing carbon into the atmosphere, and he was skeptical of theirleaders’promisestocurbemissions.

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MigrantsgatheringtoreceiveamealattheInternationalOrganizationforMigration’stransitcenterinAgadez.

“Thebig powers are polluting and creatingproblems for us,” he said.Hewasappalled that Africans trying to go to Europe were treated like criminals, whenEuropeansinAfricaweretreatedlikekings.

Mr.Diallo’scompound,likeothersinAgadez,hasaweeklyrhythm.HeinstructsthoseseekingtomakethejourneytoLibyatobeinsidebySunday

night.Mondaymorning,hetreatsthemtoafeastbeforethelonghaul.Heroastsasheep,playssomemusic,turnsontheceilingfansforacoupleofhours.

Just after sundown, a white Toyota pickup pulls up. Monday night is whenNigeriensoldierschangeshifts,headingoutofAgadezandintoadesertoutpost.TheToyotas follow, stopping briefly at the police checkpoint at the edge of the citybeforespeedingintothedunes.Thosewhofalloffthetrucksareleftbehind.

The journey to theLibyan border, 250miles in all, takes three days.No one

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knowshowmanydiealongtheway.Thosewho venture a journey across theMediterranean take a deadly gamble,

too.Amongthemorethan4,700peoplewhohavediedtryingtocrosstheCentralMediterraneansofar in2016,thevastmajoritycannotbeidentified.Ofthosewhocan,Africansmakeupthelargestshare.

“Themigrantroad,”Mr.Diallosaid,“isaroadonfire.”

Menandboyslistenedasthemanagerofthetransitcenter,AzaouaMahamen,readthenamesofthosewhowouldbeboardingthebuses.

Those who make it to Libya do not necessarily make it inside Libya. It is alawlesscountrywheresomemigrantsgetthrownbehindbars—andsome,accordingtohumanrightsgroups,arerapedandtorturedbymilitiasdemandingmoney.Somerunoutofmoney,orheart,tocontinuethejourneytoEurope.

On the way back, they usually knock on the gates of the InternationalOrganizationforMigration’stransitcenterattheedgeofAgadez.

Therewereabout400boysandmentheretheweekIvisited.Theyloungedonthin rose-print mattresses. They played cards and scrolled through their phones,calling home if they had any credit left. A few attended a class on how to start a

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business;othersrestedinthemedicalward.Themix of shame and boredomhung so heavy you could practically smell it.

Oneyoungmanwalkedaroundwithanopenwoundonhiselbow;hevaguelysaidhewasinjuredinabrawlinLibya.

Whentheheatofthedaybroke,theyrousedthemselvesandplayedsoccer.The migrants from the countryside all had similar stories. Their fathers had

never left the land— they all felt theyhad to.Theharvestwasnot enough; theirfamilies had no tractors, just lazy donkeys. Work in nearby towns brought in afractionofwhattheyfiguredtheycouldmakeabroad.

Thelureofabroad,AlgeriaorLibyaorbeyond,wasstrong.Facebookpostsfromfriendsandneighborsmadeitseemlikeacakewalk.

IbrahimDiarrasaidthatficklerainsmadeittoohardtogrowpeanutsandcornonthe family farmin theTambacoundaregionofSenegal.Hewatchedtheyoungmenofhisvillageleave,eachpulledbythestoriesofthosewhowentbefore.Thenhefollowed.

Mr.Diarramade his way throughQaeda-riddled northernMali, then workedconstruction for six months inMauritania, before pushing on to Tamanrasset, inAlgeria.IfhecouldjustgettoMorocco,hehadheard,hecouldclimboverafenceandbeinSpain.

“Theytoldmeit’sveryeasy,”hesaid.Itwasn’t.Helastedtwomonths inAlgeria.Then,hewentbacktoAgadezand

asked themigration organization for a bus ticket home. So far this year, 100,000peoplehavemadethesamereversejourney.

OnaThursday—departurenightforthosewhoseemigrationdreamsaredashed—bittersweetchaoseruptedinthecourtyardastwolargebusespulledup.

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MigrantsonthedesertroadsoutsideAgadez.

Themanagerofthetransitcenter,AzaouaMahamen,satontheporchwithhislaptopopen,scrollingthroughthenamesofthosewhohadbeenclearedtogohome.Migrantsneedidentitypapers,andgovernmentpermission.Iftheyarechildren,Mr.Mahamenhastomakesuretheyhaveafamilytogobackto;afewdon’t.

Dozensofyoungmencrowdedaroundhim,theireyeslikeheadlightsinthedark.Theyshoutedtheirnames.Theywavedtheir identitycards,wrappedinplastic.

Onegroupcomplained thatonlyGuineansweregettingout thatnight.The IvoryCoastcontingentstartedcheeringwhenoneoftheircompatriotswascalled.

Mr.Diarralistenedforhisname,thoughhewasn’tlookingforwardtofacinghisparentsempty-handed.

“I’m supposed to support my family,” he explained. “Now I have no clothes,nothing.Iwillbeaburdentothem.”

His father, especially, would be upset. “He’ll ask me how my friends got toEuropeandIcameback,”hesaid,shakinghishead.

He said he would try the journey again. It would take him a few months tocobbletogetherthemoney.

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ProducedbyCraigAllen,GrayBeltran,JoeBurgess,HannahFairfield,DavidFurst,TaigeJensenandMeaghanLooram.

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POLARBEARS’PATHTODECLINERUNSTHROUGHALASKANVILLAGE

AbearnearwhalebonesoutsideKaktovik,Alaska.Whaleremainshavebecomeanalternativefoodsource.(JoshHaner/TheNewYorkTimes)

BYERICAGOODEDECEMBER18,2016

Thebearsthatcomehereareclimaterefugees,onlandbecausetheseaicetheyrelyonforhuntingsealsisreceding.

KAKTOVIK,ALASKA—COMEFALL, polar bears are everywhere around thisArcticvillage,dozingonsandspits,roughhousingintheshallows,paddingdownthebeachwithcubsintowandattractinghundredsoftouristswhotravellongdistancestoseethem.

Atnight,thebearsstealintotown,makingitdangeroustowalkoutsidewithoutafirearmorbearspray.Theyleaveonlyreluctantly,chasedoffbythepolarbearpatrolwithfirecrackershellsandspotlights.

On the surface, these bears might not seem like members of a species facingpossibleextinction.

Scientistshavecountedupto80atatimeinornearKaktovik;manylookhealthyandplump,especiallyintheearlyfall,whentheirpresenceoverlapswiththeInupiatvillage’swhalingseason.

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But thebears that comehere are climate refugees, on landbecause the sea icetheyrelyonforhuntingsealsisreceding.

TheArcticiswarmingtwiceasfastastherestoftheplanet,andtheicecoverisretreating at a pace that even the climate scientistswhopredicted thedecline findstartling.

Much of 2016 was warmer than normal, and the freeze-up came late. InNovember,theextentofArcticseaicewaslowerthaneverrecordedforthatmonth.Thoughtheaveragerateof icegrowthwasfasterthannormal forthemonth,overfive days in mid-November the ice cover lost more than 19,000 square miles, adecline that the National Snow and Ice Data Center in Colorado called “almostunprecedented”forthattimeofyear.

InthesouthernBeaufortSea,whereKaktovik’s260residentsoccupyonesquaremile on the northeast corner of Barter Island, sea ice loss has been especiallyprecipitous.

Thecontinuinglossofseaicedoesnotbodewellforpolarbears,whoseexistencedependsonanicecoverthatisrapidlythinningandmeltingastheclimatewarms.AsSteve Amstrup, chief scientist for Polar Bears International, a conservationorganization,putit,“Astheseaicegoes,sogoesthepolarbear.”

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Polarbearsholdingeachotherinwatersnearthevillage.Thecontinuinglossoficebodesillforthem.(JoshHaner/TheNewYorkTimes)

The largest of the bear species and a powerful apex predator, the charismaticpolarbearbecametheposteranimalforclimatechange.

AlGore’s2006film,“AnInconvenientTruth,”whichdepictedalonepolarbearstrugglinginavirtually icelessArcticsea,tiedthebearstoclimatechangeinmanypeople’sminds. And the federal government’s 2008 decision to list polar bears asthreatenedundertheEndangeredSpeciesAct—adesignationbasedinpartonthefuturedangerposedbyalossofseaice—cementedthelink.

Butevenas thepolarbear’s symbolic rolehasraisedawareness, somescientistssay it has alsooversimplified thebears’ plight andunwittinglyopened thedoor toattacksbyclimatedenialists.

“Whenyou’reusingitasamarketingtoolandtobringindonations,therecanbeatendencytolosethenuanceinthemessage,”saidToddAtwood,aresearchwildlifebiologistattheUnitedStatesGeologicalSurvey’sAlaskaScienceCenter.“Andwithpolarbearsinparticular,Ithinkthenuancesareimportant.”

Few scientists dispute that in the long run — barring definitive action bycountriestocurbglobalgreenhousegasemissions—polarbearsareintrouble,andexpertshavepredictedthatthenumberwilldecreasewithcontinuedsea ice loss.A2015assessmentfortheInternationalUnionforConservationofNature’sRedListprojectedareductionofover30percentinthenumberofpolarbearsby2050,whilenoting that therewas uncertainty about how extensive or rapid the decline of thebears—or the ice—wouldbe.Aversionof the assessmentwaspublishedonlineDec.7inthejournalBiologyLetters.

But the effect of climate change in the shorter term is less clear cut, and apopulationwidedeclineisnotyetapparent.

NineteensubpopulationsofpolarbearsinhabitfivecountriesthatringtheArcticCircle—Canada,theUnitedStates,Norway,GreenlandandRussia.

Of those, threepopulations, includingthepolarbears in thesouthernBeaufortSea,arefallinginnumber.

But six other populations are stable.One is increasing. And scientists have solittle information about the remaining nine that they are unable to gauge theirnumbersortheirhealth.

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In their analysis, the researchers who conducted the Red List assessmentconcluded that polar bears should remain listed as “vulnerable,” rather than bemoveduptoamoreendangeredcategory.

Yet numbers aside, scientists are seeing other,more subtle indicators that thespeciesisatincreasingrisk,includingchangesinthebears’physicalcondition,bodysize, reproduction and survival rates. And scientists have linked some of thesechanges toa lossof sea iceandan increase in ice-freedays in theareaswhere thebearslive.

Climate-changedenialistshaveseizedontheuncertaintiesinthesciencetoarguethatpolarbearsaredoing fineand that sea ice lossdoesnotposea threat to theirsurvival.Butwildlifebiologistssaythereislittlequestionthatthetrend,forbothseaice and polar bears, is downward. The decline of a species, they note, is never asteadymarchtoextinction.

“It’snotgoingtohappeninasmooth,linearway,”saidEricRegehr,abiologistat the federal Fish andWildlife Service in Anchorage who took part in the 2015assessment and presented the findings at a meeting in June of the InternationalUnion’sPolarBearSpecialistGroup.

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AbowheadwhalethatwascaughtnearKaktovik.(JoshHaner/TheNewYorkTimes)

Adozenpolarbearspickthroughthebonepilethatsitsjustoutsidetown.Menfrom the whaling crews had dumped the carcass of a bowhead whale on the pileearlier in the day. As two visitors watch from the safety of a pickup truck a fewhundredyardsaway,thebearsdevourtheleftovermeatandblubber.

TheInupiatpeople,whohavebeenwhalinghereforthousandsofyears,believethatawhalegivesitselftothecrewthatcapturesit.Oncetheanimal’sbodyispulledtoshore,waterispouredoverittofreeitsspirit.

Evenafewdecadesago,mostpolarbearsinthesouthernBeaufortSearemainedontheiceyear-roundor,iftheydidcometoshore,stoppedonlybriefly.Theseaicegavethemreadyaccesstoseals,thestapleoftheirhigh-fatdiet.

But as the climate has warmed, the spring thaw has come earlier and the fallfreezelater.ThepackicethatwasoncevisiblefromKaktovikeveninsummertimehasretreatedhundredsofmilesoffshore,wellbeyondthesouthernBeaufort’snarrowcontinentalshelf.Theedgeofthepackiceisnowoverdeepwater,wheresealsarefewandfarbetweenandthedistancetolandisalongswim,evenforapolarbear.

As a result, researchers have found, a larger proportion of the bears in thesouthern Beaufort region are choosing to spend time on shore: an average of 20percent compared with 6 percent two decades earlier, according to a recentlypublished study by Dr. Atwood of the Geological Survey and his colleagues thattrackedfemalebearswithradiocollars.Andthebearsarestayingonlandlonger—thisyeartheyarrivedinAugustandstayedintoNovember—remaininganaverageof56dayscomparedwithanaverageof20daystwodecadesago.

“It’soneoftwochoices:Staywiththepackice,orcometoshore,”Dr.AtwoodsaidofthesouthernBeaufortbears.“Iftheysitonthaticeandthosewatersareverydeep,itwillbeharderforthemtofindnutrition.”

The shifts that researchers are seeing go beyond where polar bears decide tospendtheirsummers.

In the southern Beaufort Sea and in the western Hudson Bay — the twosubpopulations studied themost by researchers—bears are going into thewinterskinnierandinpoorercondition.

Theyarealsosmaller.Andolderandyoungerbearsarelesslikelytosurvivethan

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inthepast.“You see it reflected through thewholepopulation,” saidAndrewDerocher, a

professorofbiological sciences at theUniversityofAlberta,whohas studiedpolarbearsfor32years.“Theyjustdon’tgrowasfast,andtheydon’tgrowasbig.”

Touristswatchedthebearsscavengewhaleremains.(JoshHaner/TheNewYorkTimes)

The proliferation of polar bears in Kaktovik in the fall has drawn wildlifephotographers, journalists andclimate-change tourists to thevillage, filling its twosmallhotelsorflyinginfromFairbanksforthedayoncharteredplanes.

About1,200peoplecametoviewthebearsin2015,andthenumberisincreasingyearbyyear,accordingtoRobertThompson,anInupiatguidewhoownsoneofsixboatsthattaketouriststoviewthebears.

Some visitors are surprised at the bears’ darkened coats, dirty from rolling insand and whale remains. “They don’t look like polar bears,” one man from the

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Netherlandssaid.“Butitdoesnotmatter.IwillPhotoshopthemwhenIgethome.”SusanTrucano,whoarrivedinearlySeptemberwithherson,Matthew,saidthey

wantedtoseepolarbearsinthewildbeforetheyweredriventoextinction.“Itwasanurgencytocomehere,”Ms.Trucanosaid.“Myfearwasthatwewould

losetheopportunityofseeingthesemagnificentanimals.”Theincreasingtourismhasbeenafinancialboonforsomepeople inKaktovik,

butithasupsetothers.Touriststakeupseatsonthesmallcommercialflightsinandout of the village during the fall months when the bears are there, crowding outresidents who need to fly to Anchorage or Fairbanks. And some visitors wanderthroughtownsnappingpictureswithoutaskingpermission,orgetinthewayoftheritualsthataccompanythewhalehunt.Lastyear,anintrusivetouristnearlycametoblowswithoneofthewhalingcaptains.

Forthemostpart,polarbearsandpeoplehavecoexistedpeacefullyhere.Villageresidentsaretolerantofthebears—“Theycouldbreakrightinhere,buttheyknowtherules,”saidMerlynTraynor,aproprietoroftheWaldoArmsHotel—andwiththewhaleremains,theyhavelittlereasontocomeafterhumans.

ButastheArctic icecontinuestoshrink,bearsarearrivinginpoorerconditionandarestayinglonger,evenasthenumberoftouristsincreases.Interactionbetweenbearsandhumansisbecomingmorecommon,asithasinotherpartsoftheArctic,exposingthepolarbearstomorestressandthepeopletomoredanger.

So far, therehavebeennoattacksonhumans,but therehavebeen someclosecalls.

“Theyneverusedtocomeintotown,ormaybeoccasionally,likeonceayearorso,”Mr.Thompsonsaid.“Nowthey’reintowneverynight.”

Polarbearexpertssaytheyworrythatatsomepointthenumberofbearsseekingfoodherewillexceedwhatisavailable.

“Whenpolarbearsarefatandhappyandingoodcondition,they’renotthatbigofa threat,” saidJamesWilder,anexpertwhorecentlycompletedastudyofpolarbearattacksonhumans.“Butwhentheygetskinnyandnutritionallystressed,you’vegottowatchout.”

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AmotherwiththreecubsinKaktovik.(JoshHaner/TheNewYorkTimes)

Threatened species like lions or wolves face predictable threats: poaching andhunting,ortheencroachmentofhumansettlementsontheirhabitat.

But the biggest threat to the polar bear is something no regulatory authorityinvolved in wildlife conservation can address: the unregulated release of carbondioxideandothergreenhousegasesintotheatmosphere.

Sporthuntingonceposeda significantdanger topolarbears,greatly shrinkingtheir numbers in some areas until 1973, when an agreement among the Arcticcountriesrestrictedhuntingtomembersof indigenousgroups,andthepopulationsbegantorebound.

Oilspills,pollutionandover-huntingstillposesomerisk.Butthesedangerspalecomparedwiththelossofseaice.

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Researchersareconcernedabouthowlongpolarbearscansurvivewithoutthehigh-fatnutritionsealsprovide.(JoshHaner/TheNewYorkTimes)

Formanyresearchers,themostpressingquestionishowmanydaysapolarbearcansurviveonlandwithoutthesteadysourceofhigh-fatnutritionthatsealsusuallyprovide.

“Abearneedsseaiceinordertokillsealsandbeapolarbear,”saidDr.RegehroftheFishandWildlifeService.“That’sabottomline.”

Some scientists have suggested that the bearsmight learn to survive on othertypesoffood—snowgeese,forexample—orthattheymightlearntocatchsealsinthewater,withoutrelyingontheiceasaplatform.

Butmostresearcherssaythatisunlikely.Such changes usually evolve over thousands of years, said David Douglas, a

research wildlife biologist at the Geological Survey, who spoke at the specialistsgroupmeeting.

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Butthe lossofsea ice“is takingplaceoverpotentiallyaveryrapidtimeframe,where there may not be a lot of time in polar bear generations to home in onbehaviorsthatcouldgivesomeadvantage,”hesaid.

Muchdependsonhowmuchoftheicedisappears.Undersomeclimatemodels,ifstepsaretakentocontrolgreenhousegasemissions,thespeciescouldrecover.Andsome evidence suggests that during an earlier warming period polar bears tookrefugeinanarchipelagointheCanadianArctic.

InKaktovik,atleastfornow,whalesareprovidingthebearswithanalternativesourceoffood.Butdeadwhaleisnotapolarbear’spreferredcuisine.

“Thebearsarenotherebecausewehuntwhales,”saidMr.Thompson.“They’rehere because their habitat has gone away, and it’s several hundred miles of openwateroutthere.”


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