Table 1 - Progressive Dairy

9
MARKET WATCH MARKET WATCH FEED Normand St-Pierre Dairy Extension Specialist Ohio State University [email protected] Feed markets are up one day, down the next. Unless something big happens, that’s probably what we’ll see until the next crop of corn and soybean starts coming in. On the milk side, reduced production in the U.S. combined with a severe reduction in New Zealand, an inability for the E.U. to raise its output and steady demand in the U.S. are pointing to increased dairy exports in months to come and substantially better domestic milk prices in late spring. For now, feeding balanced diets based on economically priced feed ingredients can help maintain positive margins. e idea is to maximize the use of underpriced feeds and to minimize the use of overpriced ones. In this column, I track down six different feed markets using the Sesame software. Results using market prices as of March 18 are summarized in tables specific to your region of publication. e feed table reports bracket prices for each feed. e Low and High values delineate the 75 percent confidence range for a feed. If you can buy a feed at a price less than the Low, then it is a bargain. If the market price exceeds the High, then it is overpriced. If your price is between the Low and High, then the feed is priced approximately for what it is worth. e ‘Status’ column provides you with a quick indicator of a feed status: A indicates a bargain feed; a denotes an overpriced feed; a blank entry indicates that the feed is priced about right. Lastly, a few feeds carry a special status symbol: a is shown if a feed is grossly overpriced (in which case only the High column has a price, and the reported price is the calculated breakeven price), if a feed is grossly underpriced (in which case only the Low column has a price, and the reported price is the calculated breakeven price) or if we are in no position to judge a feed status. Sesame determines the nutritional worth of feeds through the determination of the economic values of the nutrients. Because nutrients required for milk production are well-known, we can calculate the cost of providing these nutrients to dairy cows. Beware that the resulting feed costs do not include the costs of feeding the dry cows and the replacement herd. PD www.trioliet.com Trioliet. Invents for you. Capacity 1,650 cu.ft. Solid Rocking Beam Tandem Two discharge doors on RHS Also available from 1,285 to 1,860 cu.ft. Trioliet YouTube channel: www.youtube.com/Trioliet2011 SOLOMIX 3 4600 ZKX-T RDO Equipment Hermiston, OR 800.357.7925 Sunnyside, WA 800.745.4027 Lawrence Tractor Co. Mike Lorenzo Hanford, Visalia, Tipton, CA 559.901.9267 559.752.4251 Mixer Center Stephenville, TX 254.965.3663 Friona, TX 254.965.3663 Dalhart, TX 254.965.3663 Roswell, NM 254.965.3663 Kern Machinery Bakersfield, CA 661.833.9900 Buttonwillow, CA 661.746.6363 Delano, CA 661.725.3841 Linn Benton Tractor Tangent, OR 541.926.1811 Whatcom Manufacturing Lynden, WA 360.354.3094 Alan Brandmeyer Regional Sales Manager - Western USA 661.303.3626 cell [email protected] Supreme hay ($/ton) Mar. 25 Price 3-week change Central CA $295 $15 UT $185-$200 NC WY $253-$266 NC WA/OR $250-$260 NC CO $250-$275 NC NM $250-$275 NC TX $265-$390 $10-$25 Source: USDA National Hay, Feed & Seed Summary Soybean meal* ($/ton) Mar. 25 Price 3-week change CA $481 $12 ID $475 $11 NM $465 $14 *Price quotes contributed by Western Milling, J.D. Heiskell and independent sources. Corn* (in tons) (in bushels) Mar. 25 Price 3-week change CA $329 $6 ID $325 $6 NM $305 $7 Price 3-week change $9.21 .17¢ $9.10 .17¢ $8.54 .20¢ Mar. 25 Price 3-week change CA $393 $2 ID $373 $4 NM $345 NC Cottonseed* ($/ton) COMMODITIES COTTONSEED MEAL A BARGAIN Item 1 Southwest West Northwest NE L (¢/Mcal) 15.9 16.5 19.6 MP (¢/lb) 45.3 36.4 26.4 e-NDF (¢/lb) 4.5 5.9 2.0 ne-NDF (¢/lb) -8.2 -1.7 -5.6 Nutrient costs ($/cow per day) 2 7.67 7.78 7.76 Nutrient costs (¢/lb of feed DM) 15.6 15.8 15.8 Nutrient cost ($/cwt of milk) 10.95 11.11 11.08 1 NEL = Net energy for lactation; MP = metabolizable protein; e-NDF = effective neutral detergent fiber; ne-NDF = non-effective NDF. 2 1,400 lb cow producing 70 lbs/day at 3.7% fat, 3.1% protein and 5.7% other solids. Table 1 8 Progressive Dairyman Issue 6 • April 11, 2013

Transcript of Table 1 - Progressive Dairy

Page 1: Table 1 - Progressive Dairy

MARKET WATCHMARKET WATCH FEED

Normand St-PierreDairy Extension SpecialistOhio State [email protected]

Feed markets are up one day, down the next. Unless something big happens, that’s probably what we’ll see until the next crop of corn and soybean starts coming in. On the milk side, reduced production in the U.S. combined with a severe reduction in New Zealand, an inability for the E.U. to raise its output and steady demand in the U.S. are pointing to increased dairy exports in months to come and substantially better domestic milk prices in late spring.

For now, feeding balanced diets based on economically priced feed ingredients can help maintain positive margins. � e idea is to maximize the use of underpriced feeds and to minimize the use of overpriced ones.

In this column, I track down

six diff erent feed markets using the Sesame software. Results using market prices as of March 18 are summarized in tables specifi c to your region of publication.

� e feed table reports bracket prices for each feed. � e Low and High values delineate the 75 percent confi dence range for a feed. If you can buy a feed at a price less than the Low, then it is a bargain. If the market price exceeds the High, then it is overpriced. If your price is between the Low and High, then the feed is priced

approximately for what it is worth. � e ‘Status’ column provides you with a quick indicator of a feed status: A ★indicates a bargain feed; a ■ denotes an overpriced feed; a blank entry indicates that the feed is priced about right. Lastly, a few feeds carry a special status

symbol: a is shown if a feed is grossly overpriced (in which case only the High column has a price, and the reported price is the calculated breakeven price), if a feed is grossly underpriced (in which case only the Low column has a price, and the reported price is the calculated breakeven price) or if we are in no position to judge a feed status.

Sesame determines the nutritional worth of feeds through the determination of the economic values of the nutrients. Because nutrients required for milk production are well-known, we can calculate the cost of providing these nutrients to dairy cows. Beware that the resulting feed costs do not include the costs of feeding the dry cows and the replacement herd. PD

www.trioliet.com Trioliet. Invents for you.

Capacity 1,650 cu.ft.

Solid Rocking Beam Tandem

Two discharge doors on RHS

Also available from 1,285 to 1,860 cu.ft.

Trioliet YouTube channel: www.youtube.com/Trioliet2011

SOLOMIX 3 4600 ZKX-T

RDO EquipmentHermiston, OR 800.357.7925Sunnyside, WA 800.745.4027

Lawrence Tractor Co.Mike LorenzoHanford, Visalia, Tipton, CA559.901.9267 559.752.4251

Mixer CenterStephenville, TX 254.965.3663Friona, TX 254.965.3663Dalhart, TX 254.965.3663Roswell, NM 254.965.3663

Kern MachineryBakersfi eld, CA 661.833.9900Buttonwillow, CA 661.746.6363Delano, CA 661.725.3841

Linn Benton TractorTangent, OR 541.926.1811

Whatcom ManufacturingLynden, WA 360.354.3094

Alan BrandmeyerRegional Sales Manager - Western USA661.303.3626 [email protected]

Supreme hay ($/ton)

Mar. 25 Price 3-week change

Central CA $295 $15

UT $185-$200 NC

WY $253-$266 NC

WA/OR $250-$260 NC

CO $250-$275 NC

NM $250-$275 NC

TX $265-$390 $10-$25

Source: USDA National Hay, Feed & Seed Summary

Soybean meal* ($/ton)

Mar. 25 Price 3-week change

CA $481 $12

ID $475 $11

NM $465 $14

*Price quotes contributed by Western Milling, J.D. Heiskell and independent sources.

Corn* (in tons) (in bushels)

Mar. 25 Price 3-week change

CA $329 $6

ID $325 $6

NM $305 $7

Price 3-week change

$9.21 .17¢ $9.10 .17¢ $8.54 .20¢

Mar. 25 Price 3-week change

CA $393 $2

ID $373 $4 NM $345 NC

Cottonseed* ($/ton)

COMMODITIES

COTTONSEED MEAL A BARGAIN

Item1 Southwest West NorthwestNEL (¢/Mcal) 15.9 16.5 19.6

MP (¢/lb) 45.3 36.4 26.4

e-NDF (¢/lb) 4.5 5.9 2.0

ne-NDF (¢/lb) -8.2 -1.7 -5.6

Nutrient costs ($/cow per day)2 7.67 7.78 7.76

Nutrient costs (¢/lb of feed DM) 15.6 15.8 15.8

Nutrient cost ($/cwt of milk) 10.95 11.11 11.081 NEL = Net energy for lactation; MP = metabolizable protein; e-NDF = effective neutral detergent fi ber; ne-NDF = non-effective NDF.2 1,400 lb cow producing 70 lbs/day at 3.7% fat, 3.1% protein and 5.7% other solids.

Table 1

8 Progressive Dairyman Issue 6 • April 11, 2013

Page 2: Table 1 - Progressive Dairy

May2013

Mar2014

July MaySept Dec

Low

High

Settle$5.25$5.50$5.75$6.00$6.25$6.50$6.75$7.00$7.25$7.50

May2013

MayJuly Aug Sept Oct Dec MarJan2014

High

Settle Low

$325

$350

$375

$400

$425

$450

FUTURES

High: $7.35 Low: $5.39

High: $442.90 Low: $350.50

Corn (dollars per bushel)

CornMay ’13 contracts $7.17 +0.21¢ $7.33/$6.89July ’13 contracts $6.99 +0.19¢ $7.17/$6.72

MARCH 28 Avg. 3-week settle High/Low

Soybean mealMay ’13 contracts $424.83 -$0.66 $438.00/$411.60July ’13 contracts $418.92 -$0.86 $431.10/$405.70

Source: Chicago Mercantile Exchange data

Soybeans (dollars per ton)

Lone StarMilk Producers

A Cooperative managed by dairymendedicated to maximizing milk

checks and offering the highestreturn on equity to producers.

Providing the best quality, most efficient, and mostcompetitive service in the Southwest.

e S

Are youAre y

Losing You need aTruck Scale

Sanstrom Scale Construction Inc.

Your authorized Unibridge and Cardinal Dealer 888.375.1206

Cell: 208.250.8478 www.scaleconstruction.net

Nationwide Construction / Installation

Sanstrom Scale Construction can help with all your SCALE needs...including employee time card and commodity inventory tracking.

51 Years in the

scale business

Weight? “Th e service was great; they installed the scale when they said they would and fi nished on time. I recommend other milk producers to buy this scale and with it, the Sanstrom Scale Construction customer service.” —Arie DeJong, Rocking Horse Dairy, Hanford, CA

TIDENBERG’SWELDING REPAIR&

INC

Jim Tidenberg 575 US HWY 70 Clovis, NM Phone: 575-763-1979 • Fax: 575-763-9766

HEAVY DUTY DAIRY EQUIPMENTHeavy Duty Laydown Chute

Heavy Duty Box ScraperRubber Tire Scraper

Calf Bottle Trailer

Roll-out Bucket Hay Forks

Push Wheel• All types of custom

fabrication• Stainless steel &

aluminum welding• Feed box & hay

equipment repair• Dairy specialties• Dealer for Kirby

and Kuhn Knight feed equipment

CANOLA MEAL OVERPRICEDSouthwest West Northwest

Feedname Low High Status Low High Status Low High Status

Alfalfa hay, supreme (190 RFV) $308 $368 $318 $362 $320 $359

Alfalfa hay, premium (170 RFV) $238 $298 $297 $341 $278 $317

Alfalfa hay, good (150 RFV) $284 $344 ★ $252 $296 ★ $244 $283

Alfalfa hay, fair (130 RFV) $202 $262 $218 $262 $206 $245

Alfalfa hay, low (110 RFV) $165 $225 $182 $226 $165 $204

Almond hulls - - $199 $234 ★ - -

Bakery byproduct $310 $343 ■ - - - -

Barley feed $289 $317 ■ $305 $326 $323 $342 ★

Beet pulp - $246 ■ - - $244 $274 ■

Blood meal - $835 ■ - $742 ■ - $683 ■

Canola meal - - $341 $361 ■ $338 $359 ■

Citrus pulp - - - - - -

Corn grain, ground $314 $343 ★ - - $345 $366 ★

Corn grain, steam fl aked - - $336 $360 - -

Corn silage (32% DM) $89 $110 ★ $99 $114 ★ $96 $110 ★

Cottonseed hulls $26 $111 ■ $94 $154 - -

Cottonseed meal $389 $426 ★ $386 $416 ★ - -

Cottonseed, whole $329 $424 $350 $414 $349 $405

Distillers dried grains $327 $376 $359 $391 ★ $349 $383 ★

Feather meal $631 $704 ■ $604 $604 - -

Fishmeal, Menhaden - $692 ■ - - $602 $602

Gluten feed $280 $311 $315 $315 ❍ $313 $313 ❍

Gluten meal - - $598 $664 ■ - -

Hominy $277 $307 ★ $296 $319 $312 $333

Linseed meal $311 $348 - - - -

Meat meal $516 $559 ■ $482 $520 ★ $485 $530 ■

Molasses $219 $244 $219 $239 $245 $263 ★

Rice bran $303 $342 ★ $330 $358 ★ - -

Saffl ower meal - - $215 $259 - -

Sorghum grain, rolled $297 $322 ★ $300 $319 ■ - -

Soybean hulls $156 $230 $226 $274 $201 $255

Soybean meal, expeller $553 $601 ★ $532 $574 ★ $507 $558 ★

Soybean meal, 44% $421 $450 $413 $438 ■ $429 $429

Soybean meal, 48% $479 $515 ★ $458 $489 ■ $454 $491 ■

Tallow $705 $806 ■ $719 $798 $854 $922

Wheat bran - - $237 $274 ■ - -

Wheat feed $304 $335 ★ $328 $328 - -

Wheat middlings $217 $266 $260 $292 $259 $293 ★

Issue 6 • April 11, 2013 Progressive Dairyman 9

Page 3: Table 1 - Progressive Dairy

MARKET WATCHMARKET WATCH

Thhhe old phrase “Leave ‘em smililining!!g!”” aapapplieiess to Arnold SILVER SERVICCEE®®®.OOur r asssociates are not only empoweredd, but they are obligated to makkee yyyouu,

ouuurr ccustomer smile! How is it done . . . we ask one simple questionn . . .“WWhaattt wwill make you happy” and then Do It! That is why when we ssayyy it wwe

mem an it . . . Customer Satisfaction Is Our Only Policy®!

wwww.w.ara noldmachineryy c.comom

CoConnstrs uction EqEqqE uipu ment DDiviiv sion || MiMiM ning EEquiquipmep nt Division | Material Handling Equipment Divisiisionon | Geneeneeraral Impleemment Disttriribbbuuutors Divisisioonn

YOU WON’T LEAVE HERE WITHOUT IT!

Salt Lake City | Logan | Idaho Falls | Boise | Twin Falls | Elko | Reno | Las Vegas | Phoenix | Tucson | FlagstaffPortland | Billings | Gillette | Casper | Denver | Johnstown | Colorado Springs | Grand Junction | Jamestown | Grand Rapids | Minneapolis

(801) 972-4000

Wheel LoadersLOWEST PRICES OF THE YEAR!!!

10,000 hours Warranty AvailableLow Rate Financing OAC

Free Services up to 2,000 Hours Per OEM Specs

Twin FallsTerry Walls

(208) 733-1715

BoiseNathanial Davis(208) 887-6000

Idaho FallsWade Orr

(208) 523-0822

Salt Lake CityBob Minichbauer

(801) 972-4000

RenoNick Slider

(775) 356-1511

Las VegasMike Miles

(702) 642-9000

PhoenixRic Simon

(602) 414-1900

TucsonDennis Peterson(520) 294-7677

LOLO

MARKET WATCHMARKET WATCH Margin

Patrick FrenchRP Feed [email protected]

MARGIN VOLATILITY DUE TO MILK PRICES

SepMay2010

NovJul Nov SepMayMar Jul Nov MayMar Jul SepJan2011

Jan2012

Jan2013

Income Over Feed Cost

Operating Income

Ration Cost

Mailbox milk price

$-2.00

$1.50

$5.00

$8.50

$12.00

$15.50

$19.00

$22.50

$26.00 CaliforniaMilk Price, Feed Costs,and Returns from 2010-2013 ($/cwt)

High: $5.14 Low: -$0.77

Milk price and feed costs drive margins at the farm level. Certainly, sources of revenue other than milk and expenses other than feed impact profi tability, but not of the same magnitude. To gauge the economic health of the California dairy industry, we have calculated margin based on mailbox milk price and an estimate of the market cost of a ration. Because feed prices change constantly and no one feed is a good indicator of total feed cost on a dairy, a ration was standardized to 10 percent rumen-degradable protein, 6 percent rumen-undegradable protein, 32 percent neutral-detergent fi ber, 40 percent non-fi ber carbohydrates and 5 percent fat.

Nutrient costs are derived using the nutrient composition and monthly average market prices for a basket of 25 feeds available in the region. Income over feed cost (IOFC) is calculated as the mailbox milk price less the feed cost of producing a hundredweight (cwt) of milk, assuming a feed effi ciency of

1.45. Operating income is IOFC less non-feed operating costs that are published biannually by the Economic Research Service.

� e accompanying graph shows the mailbox milk price, ration cost, IOFC and operating income for California over the last three years. Margins in 2013 are an improvement over the summer of 2012, but several dollars per cwt lower than the 2012 highs last fall. More recently, operating income has been in the $1 to $2 per cwt range. Nearly all of the volatility in margin is from milk

prices. For now, feed has settled into the low to middle $11 per cwt range or about 16¢ per lb DM. Income tracks milk price more closely than feed cost, but feed costs can’t be ignored because a $3 per cwt advantage in milk price in February 2013 versus February 2010 was eaten up by $3 per cwt greater feed cost, resulting in very similar IOFC. � ere are many points on the graph where very diff erent milk prices and feed costs lead to similar income. Take, for example, each of the four February points that are similar in IOFC but diff er in either milk price

and/or feed cost.Margins have declined with

the start of 2013. February data is preliminary, but it appears that IOFC is in the $6 per cwt range. � is is nearly identical to February 2012 and about midway between the 12-month low and high seen in May 2012 and November 2012, respectively. � ough absolute margin dollars is most important at the end of the day, margin percent has slipped below 35 percent, meaning that 35 cents of each milk income dollar is left after feed expense has been covered. PD

10 Progressive Dairyman Issue 6 • April 11, 2013

Page 4: Table 1 - Progressive Dairy

MARKET WATCHMARKET WATCHMARKET WATCHMARGIN

Jan2013

OctSep MarMar2010

Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec DecJan2011

MarFeb Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov NovDec Jan2012

MarFeb FebApr May Jun Jul Aug$2$3$4$5$6$7$8$9

$10$11

Dairy Security Act projections(National margin)

Preliminary Mar. 2013: $5.17 High: $10.07 Low: $2.74

Proposed DSA margin formula (Feb. 2013) = $5.72

–all-milk price

$19.50 cwt $7.04 bu $440.70 ton $218 ton[ ] [ ]+ +price of corn x 1.0728( ) x 0.0137price of alfalfa( )price of soybean meal x 0.00735( )

The margin graph above assumes several factors: • Prices for corn, soybean meal, alfalfa and all-milk used to calculate the margin shall be determined as the monthly revised commodity prices published by USDA’s National Agricultural Statistics Service, not preliminary prices.

• World prices used to calculate supply management program overrides would use “Oceania prices” for cheddar and skim milk powder as published by USDA’s bi-weekly prices included in Dairy Market News – International Reports.

Note: � e graph does not attempt to predict a potential milk price increase based on a reduction in milk supply.

What the graph means? � e margin indicated in the

graph above will be closely watched by those producers who would eventually sign up for proposed government-sponsored margin protection. Producers who seek this protection at any level will be required to participate in the Dairy Market Stabilization Program, a temporary supply management program triggered when milk margins are less than $6 per hundredweight for two consecutive months or less than $4 for one month.

Green sections – Times when the diff erence between milk price and feed cost was above $6. Supply management was not in eff ect.

Yellow sections – Times when the diff erence between milk price and feed cost was below $6 but when supply management had not yet been announced or taken eff ect.

Red sections – Times when supply management would have been in eff ect for anyone receiving basic or supplemental margin protection. Supply management would begin one month after reaching the trigger margins mentioned above. Estimated margin payments per hundredweight for basic margin protection (times when margins are below $4, on 80 percent of production history) are indicated above.

Orange sections – Times when the milk margin would have triggered supply management but was suspended based on one of six scenarios in the program. PD

.55¢ .55¢ $1.14 $1.14

SuPPLY MANAGEMENT WOULD LOOM SOON

Torrence’s Farm Implements

Brawley, CA

Chino Mfg. & RepairChino, CA

Escalon Portable Welding

Escalon, CA

Fernbridge TractorFortuna, CA

Tri-County Mixer Sales Manteca, CA

Agnaldo’s WeldingTipton, CA

Tidenberg Welding & Repair

Clovis, NM

Smith Valley Garage Yerington, NV

Pettit Machinery Ardmore, OK

Bob Lowe MachineryChickasha, OK

Western Equipment Weatherford, OK

Grissoms Ada, OK

Checotah, OKMcAlester, OKMuskogee, OK

Prague, OKShawnee, OK

Visit your local Kuhn Knight Dealer today!

Low APR financing also available on new Kuhn Knight mixersHurry, this special offer ends June 30, 2013!

Invest in Quality!

See your local dealer, visit www.agricredit.com or call Kuhn Finance by Agricredit at 800-873-2474 for program details.

No payment, no interest until April 1, 2014!

www.KuhnNorthAmerica.com

Issue 6 • April 11, 2013 Progressive Dairyman 11

Page 5: Table 1 - Progressive Dairy

MARK ETWATCHMarch 25, 2013

Top Springer

Top Average

Medium Holstein Springer

ShortbredsOpen

Heifers Light

Open Heifers Heavy

HeiferCalves

BullCalves

Breeding Bulls

Empire Livestock - Burton MarketVernon, NY (800) 257-1819 (sale 3/21/13)

$1,500$50

$1,250NC

$1,150 $50

$1,000NC

$300 NC

$700 $100

$85$10

$90$20

$900$100

New Holland Sales StablesNew Holland, PA (717) 354-4341 (sale 3/13/13)

$1,575$50

$1,500$100

$1,275$50

$1,225$100

$500NC

$875$25

N/T N/T $1,575

Mid-Georgia Livestock AuctionJackson, GA (770) 775-7314 (sale 3/12/13)

$1,625$75

$1,475$50

$1,175$150

N/T$480$20

$730$60

$160$35

$85$15

N/T

Equity Co-op LivestockStratford, WI (715) 687-4101Rocky Olsen (608) 434-4037 (sale 3/26/13)

$1,475$50

$1,375NC

$1,225$25

$875$50

$500NC

$875$25

$175NC

$190$25

$1,250$100

Pipestone Livestock Auction MarketPipestone, MN (507) 825-3306 (sale 3/21/13)

$1,650$75

$1,512$64

$1,436$89

N/T$110/cwt$1/cwt

$95/cwt$20/cwt

N/T N/T N/T

United Producers, Inc.Marion, MI (517) 294-3484 (sale 3/15/13)

$1,800$100

$1,550 $50

$1,200NC

$1,050NC

$500$100

$850$50

$100$50

N/T $1,000

NC

Tri-State LivestockSioux Center, IA (712) 722-0681Mike Koedam (712) 470-0198 (sale 3/20/13)

$1,825 $100

$1,463$46

$1,420$5

N/T$103/cwt$18/cwt

$91/cwt$2/cwt

N/T N/T N/T

Brush Livestock of ColoradoBrush, CO (970) 842-2801 (sale 3/7/13)

$1,850$75

$1,700$10

$1,480$95

$1,260$135

$500$125

$775$85

N/T N/T$1,000$60

Chehalis Livestock MarketChehalis, WA (360) 748-3191 (sale 3/22/13)

$1,330$45

$1,280$105

$1,150$40

$925 $150/cwt $110/cwt $130$55

$30 $1,000

Toppenish Dairy Replacement SalesToppenish, WA (509) 865-2820 (sale 3/1/13)

$1,300$25

$1,200 NC

$1,150$250

$1,150$60

$120/cwt$12/cwt

$105/cwt$5/cwt

$100 $120 N/T

A & M Livestock Auction, Inc.Hanford, CA (559) 582-0358 (sale 3/6/13)

$1,195$205

$1,075$115

$970$30

$925$155

$235$95

$890$5

N/T N/T N/T

Sulphur Springs Livestock & Dairy AuctionSulphur Springs, TX (903) 885-7739(sale 32/21/13)

$1,460$135

$1,200$150

$1,175$125

N/T$710

$110 $900

$200 $340$10

$340$165

N/T

Escalon Livestock Market, Inc.Escalon, CA (209) 838-7011(sale 3/20/13)

$1,500 NC

$1,100 NC

$1,075NC

N/T$80/cwt $10/cwt

$92/cwt$83/cwt

$60 N/T$900

NC

Contact Judy about being included in Progressive Dairyman’s Market Watch! [email protected] • (208) 324-7513 NC = No change N/T = No test Decrease in price Increase in price

Log on to www.progressivedairy.com/marketwatch to get auction reports from more locations!

MARKET WATCHMARKET WATCHMARKET WATCHMARKET WATCHMARKET WATCHMARKET WATCHMARKET WATCHCATTLE

12 Progressive Dairyman Issue 6 • April 11, 2013

Page 6: Table 1 - Progressive Dairy

NOTE: The colored bar represents cumulative year-to-date milk production for 2013. When it does not surpass the dotted line at the center of the box, it indicates state production is below the previous year’s total (2012). When it does surpass the dotted line, it indicates production is above the previous year’s total.

MARKET WATCHMARKET WATCHMILK

Texas435 NC

1,740 -5.2%757 -5.4%

1,575 96.8%

Utah89 NC

1,620 -4.1%144 -6.5%

302 95.0%

Vermont134 NC

1,500 -2.3%201 -1.5%

422 100.5%

Virginia94 NC

1,460 -3.3%137 -5.5%

287 97.0%

Washington264 NC

1,820 -4.0%480 -3.6%

1,004 98.1%

Wisconsin1,270 NC1,700 NC2,159 +0.3%

4,534 102.3%

Arizona190 NC

1,940 -5.8%369 -6.8%

763 96.0%

California1,782 +21,810 -7.9%3,225 -8.0%

6,687 93.9%

Colorado135 NC

1,865 NC252 +1.6%

527 103.3%

Florida122 NC

1,655 -3.8%202 -3.8%

413 96.7%

Idaho579 NC

1,730 -3.9%1,002 -4.2%

2,108 97.6%

Illinois100 NC

1,600 -1.8%160 -1.8%

333 99.7%

Indiana175 NC

1,735 -0.3%304 -0.7%

626 102.8%

Iowa204 -1

1,730 -1.7%353 -2.2%

744 100.3%

Kansas132 NC

1,680 -2.6%222 +3.7%

467 107.9%

Michigan377 NC

1,870 -0.3%705 +0.6%

1,482 102.1%

Minnesota465 NC

1,565 -1.0%728 -1.0%

1,525 101.2%

Missouri93 NC

1,160 -4.5%108 -4.4%

223 96.5%New Mexico

322 +21,985 NC639 -3.9%

1,327 98.3%

U.S. Total9,225 +21,706 -3.2%

15,740 -3.5%

32,845 98.6%

New York610 NC

1,695 -2.0%1,034 -2.0%

2,166 100.6%

Ohio271 NC

1,590 -1.2%431 -0.9%

894 103.1%

Oregon123 NC

1,570 -1.9%193 -2.0%

399 98.8%

Pennsylvania534 -1

1,560 -0.6%833 -1.9%

1,737 99.5%

U.S. MILK PER COW DOWN 3.2 PERCENT

Convert box from spreading manure to hauling forage in a matter of minutes.

SAVE MONEY AND TIME...with PARMA Combination Boxes.

Hydraulic Driven Spinner attachment spreads compost, manure, bedding and dry material with an even, consistent spread pattern.

208.722.5116

[email protected]

COMPANY

Quality built components throughout assure long life and superb performance season after season and load after load.

®

®

Now Availablewith a Vertical Beater

Attachment!!!

A great source of minerals for fresh cows.

715.231.1234www.vets-plus.com

CMPK Bolus™ and CMPK Gel Plus™ is a mineral supplement for use in fresh cows. It contains: Calcium Magnesium Phosphorus Potassium

to help maintain normal levels of these minerals around freshening.

CMPK Bolus™50-720

CMPK Gel Plus™10-200

14 Progressive Dairyman Issue 6 • April 11, 2013

Page 7: Table 1 - Progressive Dairy

Legend

Number of cows(in thousands)

Milk per cow(month)

(lbs.)Total milk

production (month)

(in millions of lbs.)

Year-to-date milkproduction (total)(in millions of lbs.)

Percentage of year-to-date production versus previous year-to-date

Monthly change(in thousands)

Annual percentchange

Annual percentchange

Mar2012

Jan2013

FebApr May June July Sept OctAug Nov Dec

2011

2012

9,150

9,175

9,200

9,225

9,250

9,275

9,300 Feb. 2013: 9,225 High: 9,273 Low: 9,180 Milk cows (in thousands)

FebMar2012

Jan2013

Apr June July Sept OctAug Nov DecMay

20112012

1,6751,7001,7251,7501,7751,8001,8251,8501,875

Feb. 2013: 1,765 High: 1,858 Low: 1,706

Milk per cow (in pounds, 30-day equivalent)

FebMar2012

Jan2013

Apr May June July Sept OctAug Nov Dec

20112012

15,25015,50015,75016,00016,25016,50016,75017,00017,25017,500

Feb. 2013: 16,283 High: 17,232 Low: 15,687

Milk production (in pounds, 30-day equivalent)

U.S. HERD STATS

Feb. daily avg. milk per cow: 58.8 lbs.

Robert CroppProfessor EmeritusUniversity of Wisconsin – Madison

Ohio271 NC

1,590 -1.2%431 -0.9%

894 103.1%95% 105%100%

MAR ’13

MILK PRODUCTION CONTINUES TO RUN ABOVE YEAR-AGO LEVELS

Despite widespread drought last year, and high feed prices, milk production continues to run above year-ago levels, but up just slightly. � e USDA’s release of February’s milk production numbers, when adjusted for leap year, showed production compared to a year earlier up just 0.1 percent for the 23 reporting states and estimated to be even for the U.S. � is is down from increases in January of 0.5 percent for the 23 states and 0.6 percent for the U.S. PD

� is is data from the USDA’s March 2013 milk production report. To

comply with budget sequestration, the USDA has suspended the release of this

report through September.

-

Issue 6 • April 11, 2013 Progressive Dairyman 15

Page 8: Table 1 - Progressive Dairy

MARKET WATCHMARKET WATCH BUTTER STOCKS UP 17 PERCENTDAIRY PRICES

Feb Mar Apr May July AugJune Sept Oct Dec Jan2012

Dec Jan2013

Nov Feb Mar MarApr May June July Aug Sept Oct Nov FebMay2010

AprJune July Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec Jan2011

CA Class1 price

Federal Class I price$13

$15

$17

$19

$21

$23

$25 Apr. 2013: $17.66 High: $21.78 Low: $13.80 Apr. 2013: $19.77 High: $23.84 Low: $15.64Fluid milk prices (in dollars)

Lee MielkeSyndicated Market [email protected]

February butter stocks climbed to 240.3 million pounds, up 16 percent from January and 17 percent above those in February 2012, according to the USDA’s latest preliminary cold storage data.

American cheese, at 666.7 million pounds, was up 4 percent from January and 5 percent above a year ago. � e total cheese inventory stood at 1.1 billion pounds, up 4 percent from January and a year ago.

� e basic message is that there’s plenty of product available, and the cash dairy markets slipped some around the shortened Easter/Passover holiday week. � e 40-pound block cheese price ended that week of trading at $1.6925 per pound, down three-quarter cents but 20 1/4 cents above a year ago.

� e 500-pound barrels rolled 6 3/4 cents lower, to $1.5975, 13 3/4 cents above a year ago but 9 1/2 cents below the blocks. Five cars of block traded hands on the week and six of barrel. � e lagging AMS-surveyed U.S. average block price lost 1.6 cents, slipping to $1.6109, while the barrels were up 1.4 cents, to $1.6182.

Higher-than-anticipated volumes of milk continue to be directed to cheese plants across the nation, according to the USDA’s Dairy Market News. Despite increased inventories, manufacturers report good sales and are mostly comfortable with the added production and increased interest from export markets, which is helping to clear inventories. U.S. prices are favorable against international prices and the CWT program continues to assist with export sales.

� e CWT accepted 28 requests for export assistance to sell 7.1 million pounds of cheese, 3.9 million pounds of butter and 44,092 pounds of anhydrous milk fat (AMF) to customers in Asia, Europe, the Middle East, North Africa and North America. � e product will be delivered April through September and brought CWT’s year-to-date cheese exports to 41.156 million pounds, 44.849 million pounds of butter, 44,092 pounds of AMF and 218,258 pounds of whole milk powder to 28 countries.

� e Foreign Agricultural Service reports that imports of cheese for January-February 2013 totaled 22.9 million pounds, up 3.1 percent from a year ago.

Cash butter closed the month of March at $1.63, down 6 1/2 cents on the Easter Week but 16 3/4 cents above a year ago when butter lost six cents and eventually bottomed out

16 Progressive Dairyman Issue 6 • April 11, 2013

Page 9: Table 1 - Progressive Dairy

Mar2012

Sept Oct FebJan2013

Apr May AugJune July Nov Dec

2011

2012

$1.20

$1.30

$1.40

$1.50

$1.60

$1.70

$1.80

Feb. 2013: $1.63 High: $1.75 Low: $1.21

Non-fat dry milk

The 40-pound block cheese price ended the month of March 20 1/4 cents above a year ago.

2012

3/31/12

5/5/12

10/6/12

11/3/12

12/1/12

1/5/13

3/2/13

3/23/13

2/2/13

7/7/12

8/4/12

9/1/12

4/7/12

6/2/12

2011

$1.45

$1.65

$1.85

$2.05

$2.25

3/15/13

3/18/13

3/19/13

3/20/13

3/21/13

3/22/13

3/25/13

3/26/13

3/6/13

3/7/13

3/8/13

3/11/13

3/12/13

3/13/13

3/14/13

$1.55

$1.60

$1.65

$1.70

Mar. 23, 2013: $1.65 High: $2.15 Low: $1.49

Cheese (weekly average in dollars)

Mar2011

Apr May June July Aug Sept Oct Nov NovDec Feb FebMar Apr May June July Aug Sept Oct

Futures

Jan2012

Jan2013

Dec

2013

2014

2015

$13

$15

$17

$19

$21

$23 Class III (in dollars) Feb. 2013: $17.25

High: $21.67 Low: $15.23

CHEESE UP 4 PERCENT FROM JANUARY

February butter stocks climbed to 240.3 million pounds, up 16 percent from January and 17 percent above those in February 2012, according to the USDA’s latest preliminary cold storage data.

3/31/124/7/12

5/5/12

7/7/12

8/4/12

9/1/12

10/6/12

1/5/13

2/2/13

3/2/13

3/23/13

12/1/12

11/3/12

6/2/12

2011

2012

$1.25

$1.50

$1.75

$2.00

$2.25

Mar. 23, 2013: $1.69 High: $2.16 Low: $1.31

Butter (weekly average in dollars)

3/7/13

3/8/13

3/11/13

3/12/13

3/13/13

3/14/13

3/15/13

3/18/13

3/19/13

3/20/13

3/21/13

3/22/13

3/25/13

3/26/13

3/6/13

$1.60

$1.62

$1.64

$1.66

$1.68

$1.70

at $1.31 the last week of April. AMS butter averaged $1.6295, up 2.6 cents.

Bulk and retail butter sales are seasonally strong, according to DMN, with the current strength coming from export interest as well as domestic butter features at many

grocery outlets.Cash Grade A nonfat dry milk

closed at $1.56, up two cents on the week, while Extra Grade remained at $1.56. AMS powder averaged $1.51, down 0.6 cent, and dry whey averaged 59.16 cents, down 1.9 cents. PD

Call for more info208.521.8538 or208.754.4605Lewisville, ID 83431

Issue 6 • April 11, 2013 Progressive Dairyman 17