T shaped cognitive 20170221 v2

T-Shaped Talentand Better Building Blocks

Jim Spohrer (IBM)

Stanford, Feb 17, 2017

http://www.slideshare.net/spohrer/understanding_20170104_v10

2/21/2017 Understanding Cognitive Systems 1

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I have…

Have you noticed how the building blocks just keep getting better?

IBM Cloud Bluemix:Watson APIs are growing…

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So far (June 2016), 100,000 faculty and students globally given access

High School Senior: Anish Krishnan

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Dedication: Douglas C. EngelbartFather of the mouse and augmentation theory



Jobs of the Future


Courage Required….

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1969 1974 1979 1984 1989 1994 1999Levy, F, & Murnane, R. J. (2004). The New Division of Labor: How

Computers Are Creating the Next Job Market. Princeton University Press.

Expert Thinking

Complex Communication

Routine Manual

Non-routine Manual

Routine Cognitive

Future-Ready T-Shapes

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Next Generation:Future-Ready T-Shaped Adaptive Innovators

Many disciplinesMany sectors

Many regions/cultures(understanding & communications)

Deep

in o

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Deep

in o

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n/cu

lture

Deep

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isciplin

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Top 10 Skills




I have…

Have you noticed how the building blocks just keep getting better?

Learning to program:My first program



Early Computer Science Class:Watson Center at Columbia 1945

Jim Spohrer’sFirst Program 1972

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Fast Forward 2016:Consider this…

Microsoft CaptionBot June 19, 2016

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Microsoft CaptionBot June 20, 2016

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IBM Image Tagging

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IBM Cloud Bluemix:Watson APIs are growing…

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So far (June 2016), 100,000 faculty and students globally given access

Steps Toward a Next GenerationCognitive Curriculum

• 2016• “How to build a cognitive system for Q&A task.”• 9 months to 40% question answering accuracy• 1-2 years for 90% accuracy, which questions to reject

• 2026• “How to use cognitive assistants to be a better professional X.”• Tools to build a student level Q&A from textbook in 1 week

• 2036• “How to use your cognitive mediator to build a startup.”• Tools to build faculty level Q&A for textbook in one day• Cognitive mediator knows a person better (in some ways)

than they know themselves (identity & responsibility)

• 2046 & 2056• “How to manage your workforce of digital workers.”• 2046: 10 digital workers each; 2056: 100 digital workers each

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1956 1976 1996 2016 2036 2056

Personal Reflections:The building blocks are getting better

Maine MIT, Verbex, Yale Apple IBM

Computing: Then, Now, Projected

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2035

2055

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What might Reality 2.0 look like?

“The best way to predict the future is to inspire the next generation of students to build it better”

Digital Natives Transportation Water Manufacturing

Energy Construction ICT Retail

Finance Healthcare Education Government

In sum, the top job of the future will be…

• Knowing what to do with 100 people working for you!• What is the most productive purpose to point them towards?• What goals create the most value for business and society?

• That is the world we are entering with digital cognitive systems (DCS)• No shortage of DCS workers…• …but what would you do with 100 people/DCS working for you?

• Most people don’t have any idea…• However, great entrepreneurs do have an idea• Education of the future must teach students to work in teams• Work on challenges in teams with no solutions• This will require T-shaped professionals with depth and breadth


In Summary


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“A service scienceperspective considersthe evolving ecology of service system entities, their value co-creation andcapability co-elevationinteractions, and their capabilities, constraints,rights, and responsibilities.”

Cognitive SystemsEntities

Service SystemsEntities With

CognitiveMediators

Add Rights &Responsibilities

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Come visit IBM Research – Almaden in San Jose, CA USA – monthly university day!

What is DCS?


What is a biological cognitive system (BCS entity)?


What is a digital cognitive system (DCS entity)?


Build them (BCS)? 10 million minutes of experience


Build them (BCS)? 2 million minutes of experience


Build them (DCS)? Computers, data, building blocks & service offerings


Build them (BCS + DCS)? Socio-technical system designhardware < software < data < experience < transformation


Understand them?

• Observe Them: Predictable and Auditable?• BCS: Sometimes predictable and auditable (natural, evolved, experiences, free will)• DCS: Mostly predictable and auditable (artificial, designed, algorithms, blockchain)

• Hardware:• BCS: Brain-based (neurons)• DCS: Microprocessor-based (transistors)

• Software:• BCS: (People and Experiences) Evolution & Psychology, Cognitive Science• DCS: (Machines and Algorithms) Design & Engineering, Computer Science

• Data, Experience, Transformation?• BCS & DCS: External environment & sensing (Data), Internal processes,

communications, storage (Information & experience), Philosophy of life, values (Transformation)


Work with them? Circa 2016…


What we don’t yet understand?




Explain external phenomena



Explain internal phenomena



Explainvalue co-creationphenomena



Physics Chemistry Biology

Neuroscience Psychology ArtificialIntelligence

Engineering Management PublicPolicy

Education Design Humanities

Natural Systems

Cognitive Systems

Service Systems

Sciences provide…• Frameworks for people to ask and answer questions

systematically

• Explanations with instructions on “how to re-do”



Kline: Conceptual Foundation of Multidisciplinary Thinking -“To our children and children’s children, to whom we elders owe an explanation of the worldthat is understandable, realistic, forward-looking, and whole.”

Proenneke:Alone in the Wilderness -To do a thorough testing,should each generationbe required to rapidly rebuildfrom scratch?A re-makers movement?

What are the opportunities?




Cognitive Mediatorsfor all people in all roles

Occupations = Many Tasks



Watson Discovery Advisor



Simonite, T. 2014. Software Mines Science Papers to Make New Discoveries. MIT. November 25, 2014.URL: http://m.technologyreview.com/news/520461/software-mines-science-papers-to-make-new-discoveries/

User Models



What are IBM employees doing?


What types of digital cognitive systems (DCS)?

• Cognitive Build: Outthink Challenge (250K people)• Imagine a digital cognitive system to help you do

something important in your personal or professional lives

• Team to design it and advocate for it, and then everyone votes

• Winners: reduce waste and human suffering, screen for health issues and safety threats, learn life skills and make better choices, find what you are looking for, move around more effectively, provide emotional support, provide IT support, learn about important public policy goals and make better choices

• Types: Tool, Assistant, Collaborator, Coach, Mediator


Types

• Tool

• Assistant

• Collaborator

• Coach

• Mediator


Types:Model/Capability/Challenge (+ = relative difficulty level)


DCS Type Improvement Model/Learning/Data

Task Model/Perception/Variety

Self Model/Reasoning/Commonsense

User Model/Interaction/Episodic Memory

World Model/Knowledge/Legal Trust

Tool + ++ + + +

Assistant ++ +++ +++ ++ ++

Collaborator +++ +++ +++ ++++ +++

Coach ++++ ++++ ++++ +++++ +++++

Mediator +++++ +++++ +++++ +++++ +++++++

tool assistant collaborator coach mediator

Next Generation Cognitive Curriculum:Intelligence Building Blocks


• IntelligenceAugmentation (IA)• Science

• Design

• Business

• Society

• Interdisciplinary

• ArtificialIntelligence (AI)• Learning

• Perception

• Reasoning

• Interaction

• Knowledge

IBM in Silicon Valley:From Punch Cards….

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On August 22, 1943, 105 men, women and children, among them 43 IBM employees, alighted from a special train that carried them across the continent to establish new homes and the new IBM Card Manufacturing Plant Number 5 at 16th and St. John Streets, San Jose, CA.



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IBM in Silicon Valley:To Brain Chips….



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Partnership for AI formed


Cognitive Science, a young field

• Society• cognitivesciencesociety.org

• People• Founders: Roger Schank, Donald Norman,

Allan Collins• Others: David Rumelhart, Herbert Simon,

Allen Newell• Today: Patrick Langley, Wayne Gray,

Kenneth Forbus, Ashok Goel, Paul Maglio, etc.

• Systems Conference• cogsys.org• (JCS wishes this was part of HICSS)


Advances in Cognitive Systems - cogsys.org


Google Search: August 26, 2016


Work with them?


T Summit

Summary

Agenda: T-Shapes & Mindset

• Introduction• Depth & Breadth: Future-ready adaptive innovators• Example of successful T-shaped individual(s)• Mindset: Meet the ME in the T• KEEN 3 C’s and T-Shapes

• T Summit Event: Theory & Practice Question

• Highlights of T Summit 2016

• Industry perspective

• University perspective

• Q&A

Today’s Talk: Understanding Cognitive Systems

• What is a cognitive system (entity)…• Biological?• Digital?

• How to…• Build them?• Understand them?• Work with them?

• Steps toward a next generation cognitive curriculum…• Types of digital cognitive systems?• Types of courses?


Jim Spohrer(Maine, MIT, Verbex, Yale, Apple, IBM, …)

Sample existing courses

• AI MOOCs (Next Slide)

• Watson Innovation Course• http://crowdtruth.org/course/watson-innovation-course-2016/


http://crowdtruth.org/course/watson-innovation-course-2016/

AI MOOCs: Circa 2016



Prof. Pieter Abbeel (UC Berkeley)


Commonsense Reasoning

Fluid Conversations

Ingesting Textbooks

T shaped cognitive 20170221 v2

Education

Transcript of T shaped cognitive 20170221 v2