TIMBER PRODUCTS OUTPUT

WHERE WE WANT TO GO AND HOW TO GET THERE

OUTLINE

Future Vision

Current Steps Towards Vision

Plan for Next Steps

Future Options

FUTURE VISION

“Imagine visiting a website where you draw a circle on a map with an immediate return of timely population estimates such as growing stock volume on timberland, removals, mortality, coarse woody debris all coupled with mill census information regarding roundwood harvests by species and corresponding harvest/processing residues”

FUTURE VISIONLive Trees

Removals

Biomass

Roundwood Products

Mill ResiduesMill Location

STEPS TOWARD VISION

Northern FIA

Southern FIA

Western FIA

Pre-2010

Northern FIA

Southern FIA

Western FIA

2010 - 2011

National TPO Team

Nationalized, Modernized,

Timely TPO

Eventual Future

* RMRS and PNW TPO Conducted through RJVA with Univ. of Montana

FUTURE VISION ELEMENTS

Timely – Dynamic TPO database

Online Tools – Data collection and distribution

Phase 2 and Phase 3 synchronicity

Stable mill census All wood use accounting Nationally consistent

TPO RPA every 5 years

One static, isolated online tool

Nationally inconsistent data collection

Now Future

WHAT DOES VISION BUY US?

$=Efficiencies Save =ProgramExpansion

• One database• One survey tool• “The Power of One”

• Stabilize mill surveys

• Utilization studies• Explore strategic

partnerships

ALL WOOD USE ACCOUNTING

Solid/paper products and energy (biomass); mill residue; logging residue

Logging/harvest utilization studies throughout the country

Virgin fiber…not recycled

Explore strategic partnerships: DOE, Census Bureau, and/or FPL

INCREMENTAL STEPS TOWARDS VISION

Pre-2010 Now With Your Help

2010-2011 ACTIVITIES A national TPO team with reps from all regions A draft set of national TPO core report tables Monthly CC’s are held to coordinate nationalization

efforts 6 half-day database CC’s 1 week workshop in St. Paul in July, 1 week workshop

in Asheville in October All activities documented at fia-ab.wikidot.com Programmers from each region assisting TPO team

with national TPO database/documentation development

Working with FIDO developers on online data collection/analysis/reporting tools

1st-ever national pulpwood report for 2008

NATIONAL PULPWOOD REPORT

DATABASE DESIGN (DATA TABLES)

PROPOSED DOCUMENTATION

NATIONAL TPO MILL SURVEY TOOL

Meets eGov initiative: online data entry for paper survey

Provides mill ability to enter their data directly onlineORCooperator/Forest Service enters mill’s data from paper form

Secure login, encrypted data transmission and storage Ability to start survey, save and finish at later time Integrated data checks for improved QA Storage in Oracle database Data entry is integrated with national TPO data

processing system

NATIONAL TPO MILL SURVEY TOOL

INTEGRATED DATA CHECKS

DEVELOPING A PLAN FOR THE FUTURE

FUTURE OPTIONS

Which Data? How we Collect? How Often? Who Collects? Data Management? Who Analyzes? Which Website?

PREFERRED FUTURE Mill censuses Conducted periodically (2-5 years) (pulpwood annually) Conducted by mix of FS, State, and university cooperators Data include national core + regional add-ons Dynamic national processing system in NIMS Regionally prepared state TPO reports…national TPO database

used for national reports/queries Improved data collection and management systems that allow

expanded research and reporting products New online tools/applications, enhance access to TPO and FIA-

inventory data for users Explore logging utilization studies nationally Coordination with DOE on fuelwood inventories Facilitate annual imputation research Explore coordination with FPL Census Bureau partnership

STILL OPEN FOR IDEAS

2010 Census 2015 Census? ? ?

2010 Census 2015 Census

e.g. Annual Imputation

ANNUAL IMPUTATION

New TPO database could be annualized….

Development of consistent imputation estimators

Strategic partnerships (e.g., FPL) needed for research

State help with sampling frame development and annual mill sample

But….

DATA STABILIZATION OPTIONS

Lengthen cycles in the states where state support is waning and the cycle is shorter than 5 years.

Buy-down to the 5-year P2 cycle and true “in-kind” state contributions to TPO effort.

Explore competitive grants (e.g., USDA, DOE, NSF) to periodically help pay for mill censuses and/or logging utilization studies.

Any more additional $ that FIA programs can contribute towards TPO?

Explore writing TPO work (e.g., mill surveys and utilization studies) into state/cooperator field work.

REMEMBER…

TPO is Cooperative process with States

States: Have mill contacts…collect data

FIA: Processes data, reports, and distributes

BUDGET UNCERTAINTY OUTCOMES

POSSIBLE OUTCOMES

$ Reductions: Efficiencies through nationalization may maintain current program…we are building national data system…states need to fill with quality/timely data.

$ Flat: Incremental progress if existing contractor continues database development efforts with programming staff (2 FTEs).

$ Additions: Utilization studies, stabilized data collection, progress on national database (years instead of decades?), staffing to pursue internal/external FIA imputation research

SUMMARY

Users have been heard Progress has been made…must occur hand-in-

hand with states With your help we can go much farther