T E C S U P Tsunami
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Transcript of T E C S U P Tsunami
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Surfing the Tsunami: Surviving the Cascading Changes Facing Manufacturers
Dr. Joel OrrCyon Research Corporation
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Christmas 2004
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Technology chaos
• Computers
• Miniaturization
• Globalization
• Internet
• Thermos bottle
$Prices
nanotechnology
SingularitySingularity
CHEAP POWER
CHEAP POWER
Genetic programming
Genetic programming
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What makes a tsunami hard to deal with?
• No warning
• More of the same - but a lot more
• No idea how much more
• No idea of how many waves
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What to do
• Raise the paradigmatic bar and live in a second-derivative world
• Examine your organizational structure
• The next best thing to the impossible task of predicting the future
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What’s your paradigm?
• Change is gradual?
• Demand is cyclical?
• The second mouse gets the cheese?
• … yours?
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The second derivative
• Distance
• Velocity
• Acceleration
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The second derivative in business
• Work on your business, not just in it. Michael Gerber
• Find new questions
• Listen to customers - but not too much (read Christensen)
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Structure is destiny
• Pyramids are a place where great things are buried
• The purpose of a system is what it does
• Out of control
• The Dandelion Paradox
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Why did the brontosaurus die?
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The Dandelion Paradox
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Simulation and the essence of chaos
• Less abstraction; simulation is the end of CAD
• No closed-form solutions
• Cheaper to crash a simulator
• Chaos: God’s way of keeping engineers humble
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Knowing the future
• Simulation and the essence of chaos
• “The Black Swan” and predictive fallacies
• Scenario planning
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Taleb’s Triplet of Opacity
• The illusion of understanding
• Retrospective distortion
• Overvaluing facts and authorities
from “The Black Swan”
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Predictive fallacies from “The Black Swan”
• The Narrative Fallacy
• The Ludic Fallacy
• The cemetery
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Scenario planning
• Where it came from
• What it is
• More information: “The Art of the Long View,” Schwartz
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Tech snapshot
• Computers: Moore’s Law and up
• Telecom: Schmidt’s Law
• Innovation: Joy’s Law
• Nanotech
• Genetic Programming
• The Singularity?
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So?
• Keep one eye on the ball - and the other on the stadium
• Continuously consider structure; revise accordingly
• Think “scenario planning”
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Thanks!• References:
• “Structure is Destiny” - http://www.lulu.com/content/49992
• “The Black Swan,” “The Art of the Long View,” “The Innovator’s Dilemma,” “The Innovator’s Solution,” “The E-Myth Revisited” - Amazon.com
• “The End of CAD” - http://joelorr.squarespace.com/the-end-of-cad/
• Me: www.joelorr.com
• Cyon Research: www.cyonresearch.com