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Systems modeling is as essential component of systems research - past and planned cases in Africa
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Transcript of Systems modeling is as essential component of systems research - past and planned cases in Africa
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Systems modeling is as essential component of systems
research - past and planned cases in Africa
Peter Carberry
CSIRO Sustainable Agriculture Flagship
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Outline
• AusAID Food Security through Rural Development
Initiative
• Farming systems research
• Farming systems modelling
• Current status
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Food Security through Rural Development
Initiative
• Australian Government commitment
• $464 million to encourage greater food security globally
• $100 million for Africa
• 4 years (but re-occurring)
• African Food Security Initiative
1. Increasing agricultural productivity through increased investments in agricultural research and development;
2. Improving rural livelihoods by helping to address market failures that hinder economic development in rural areas; and
3. Building community resilience by supporting social protection mechanisms that enable vulnerable people to withstand shocks.
• Administered through AusAID
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Agricultural research and development in
Africa
1. Sustainable Intensification of Maize-Legume Farming
Systems for Food Security in Eastern and Southern
Africa (SIMLESA) ($20M)
• Funding via ACIAR’s project development process
• CIMMYT led
• Australian partners
2. AusAID/CSIRO African Food Security Initiative ($30M)
• AusAID support for CAADP Pillar 4
• CSIRO led
• African partners
• CORAF in West Africa
• BecA in East Africa
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SIMLESA, 2010
SIMLESA collaboration
University of Sydney (Risk management)
University of Western Sydney (Socio economics)
Charles Sturt University (Policy & innovation)
University of Southern Queensland (Climate change)
African Universities
IRI
TIAR
AusAid
CSIRO
4 PhD scholarships
granted
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More productive,
resilient and
sustainable
smallholder
maize-legume
practices, tactics
and strategies
Aims at increasing farm-household food security and productivity, in the context of
climate risk and change, through the development of more resilient, profitable and
sustainable maize-legume farming systems
Scaling out and capacity building
Socio-economic
characterization
Input and output
value chain
Whole farm
resource
allocations
Improved range
of maize and
legume varieties
available for
smallholders
30% increase in maize yields and 30% reduction in risk
500,000 households over the next 10 years
SIMLESA aims
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AusAID/CSIRO African Food Security Initiative
• CORAF/WECARD
• Dakar, Senegal
• 22 member States
• Mandated to coordinate the implementation of
CAADP Pillar IV in West and Central Africa
• BecA
• Nairobi, Kenya
• Managed by ILRI (International Livestock Research
Institute)
• Shared agricultural research and biosciences
development platform
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Operational Plans
Programmes
Projects
National Plans of
ARIUniv.
MinistriesNGOCSO
CORAF/WECARD NASRO CARDESAASARECA
• Empowerment• Pluralism in delivery• Subsidiarity• Evidence-based approaches• Sustainability• Integration of
Research/extension• MIS• Cost sharing• Integration of gender
Strategic Plans
NEPADPillar I - Land Management
Pillar II - Rural Infrastructure
Pillar III - Food Supply
CAADP Pillar IV
CAADP
Agricultural Research and Dissemination
FAAP FARAWCA RECs
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Research agenda and current/future
projects
• BecA:
• Food and Nutrition Science (FANS) scoping study
• Analyse food systems (farm to consumption)
• Identify opportunities within value-chains
• Animal health
• Pest des Petits Ruminants (PPR) disease control
• African swine fever
• Capacity building/Challenge Fund
• CORAF/WECARD:
• 5 projects being developed
• 3 farming systems focus in the sub-humid to semi-arid zone
• Seeds systems project – based in Mali
• Animal Health Project – Ticks and tick-borne diseases
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Australian RDE expertise highly relevant to
dryland agriculture in Africa
• Similarity in environments• Shared constraints to biological productivity
• Agricultural research and extension• Systems science and modelling
• Conservation agriculture
• Livestock/crop integration
• Water management (droughts and flooding)
• Eucalypt and Acacia based forestry
• Participatory extension models including private sector and NGOs
• Natural resource management• Community based approaches to NRM
• Rangelands and biodiversity science
• Climate science• Seasonal climate forecasting
• Economic and policy research• Analysis of market and trade liberalisation
• Research infrastructure and institutional arrangements• Collaborative research centres
• Australian scientists with overseas research experience
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Farming Systems Research – Collinson 1982
On-farm
research
On-station
research
Operations
research
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Rigour v’s relevance?
Archives Stories NONSCIENCE Myths
Personal opinion Legends
Surveys Case studies SCIENCE
On-farm demonstrations
On-farm trials
Simulations
On-station expts.
Control Envir. expts.
Low High
Currency / Relevance
High
Data integrity / Rigour
Low
Bonoma 1985, Crookston 1994
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A shifting emphasis in research?
Archives Stories NONSCIENCE Myths
Personal opinion Legends
Surveys Case studies SCIENCE
On-farm demonstrations
On-farm trials
Simulations
On-station expts.
Control Envir. expts.
Low High
Currency / Relevance
High
Data integrity / Rigour
Low
Bonoma 1985, Crookston 1994
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Participatory research (1994)
Okali, Sumberg and
Farrington, 1994
Rhetoric and reality
• Honest in admitting to being long on
rhetoric and short on achievements
• High time costs of participation
• Dependence on qualitative data
• Difficulties in data & analysis
• Poor evaluation
• Difficulties in publication
• Lack of recognition & rewards
• 11 case studies … on-ground impacts
mostly promises
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Participatory research (2003)
Pound, Snapp, McDougall
and Braun (eds) 2003
Uniting science &
participation
• Now lots of participatory methodologies
promoted (>30)
• The promise of bringing “practical reality
to bear on generalised concepts”
• Problems of evaluation, data analysis &
publication persist
• A call for organisational learning &
change
• 23 case studies … the rhetoric
continues?
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A preferred shift in emphasis?
Archives Stories NONSCIENCE
Myths
Personal opinion Legends
Surveys Case studies SCIENCE
On-farm demonstrations
On-farm trials
Simulations
On-station expts.
ControlEnvir. expts.
Low High
Currency / Relevance
High
Dataintegrity/ Rigour
Low
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A proposed methodology
Archives Stories NONSCIENCE
Myths
Personal opinion Legends
Surveys Case studies SCIENCE
On-farm demonstrations
On-farm trials
Simulations
On-station expts.
ControlEnvir. expts.
Low High
Currency / Relevance
High
Dataintegrity/ Rigour
Low
Participatory Action
Research & systems
modelling
Carberry, P.S., 2001. Are science rigour and industry relevance both achievable in
participatory action research? Agricultural Science, 14:22-28
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APSRU’s systems approach
Farming Systems Research – Collinson 1982 APSRU Strategic Plan 1991 -1995
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Agricultural Production Systems
Simulator (APSIM)
The soil provides a central focus, crops, seasons and managers come and go, finding the soil in one state and leaving it in another
Simulates:
mechanistic growth of crops, pastures, trees, weeds ...
dynamics of populations (eg. weed seedbank)
key soil processes (water, solutes, N, P, carbon, pH)
surface residue dynamics & erosion
dryland or irrigated systems
range of management options
crop rotations + fallowing + mixtures
short or long term effects
one or two (multi-point) dimensions
high software engineering standards
language independent (VENSIM™ module maker)
now includes pests nor diseases
links to livestock modules
www.apsim.info
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Example APSIM applications
• cereal-legume rotations (Probert et
al.1995)
• ley farming systems (Carberry et al.
1996)
• intercropping systems (Carberry et al.
1996)
• alley farming systems (Nelson et al.
1998)
• drought policy formation (Keating &
Meinke 1998)
• erosion impacts (Connolly et al. 1998)
• genetic trait identification (Robertson et
al. 1999)
• seasonal climate forecasting (Hammer
et al. 1999)
• on-farm trial analyses (Robertson et al.
1999)
• climate change impacts (Howden et al., 1999)
• agribusiness value chain (Brennan et al., 2000)
• tree windbreak systems (Meinke et al. 2001)
• deep drainage assessment (Keating et al., 2001)
• soil acidification (Verburg et al., 2001)
• risk assessment of GMO (Smith et al. 2001)
• effluent irrigation (Brennan et al., 2002)
• agroforestry systems (Huth et al., 2002)
• crop-weed competition (Keating et al. 1999)
• smallholder farming systems (Carberry, 2004)
• biodiversity assessment (Huth et al., 2008)
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Need examples of successful PAR
achieving science innovation & impact
… 17 years of action research
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ACIAR Kenyan Project (1985-1992)
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Modelling was a “new frontier” in 1985
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Observed grain yields – average 1990-1999
-
0.00
0.50
1.00
1.50
2.00
2.50
3.00
A Bare fallo
w
B Traditional
C Intercrop
D 50% mulch
E Medium in
put
F Reduced til
lage
G High in
put
Ave
rag
e g
rain
yir
ld (
t/h
a)
0
0.5
1
1.5
2
2.5
3
Step 1 Step 2 Step 3 Step 4
Predicted averages : 1957 – 1988
Keating, Wafula & Watiki 1990, Climatic Risk Symposium
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Example - Linking Logics workshop
• Initiative of ICRISAT /
CIMMYT
• October 2001, Zimbabwe
• Hosted at Jusanani
carpentry workshop owned
by farmer Richard
Ndimande
• Mkubazi School, PO Box
44, Tsholotsho.
• Between 30-40 farmers
attended each day
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Peter Carberry, Christy Gladwin and Steve Twomlow, 2004. Linking
Simulation Modelling to Participatory Research in Smallholder Farming
Systems. ACIAR Proceedings No. 114. pp32-46
What worked?
Why did farmers give the simulations
credibility?
What indicators of impact?
How to scale up?
Follow-on project with ICRISAT -
Using systems simulation to
enhance the effectiveness of
agricultural change agents in the
southern African semi-arid tropics
(SAT)
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Forward projections – with APSIM
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New initiatives informed by past efforts
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Systems simulation across different scales
QTL map for SorghumQTL map for Sorghum
Broadened spatial scale
gene crop farm catchment region
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Farming system
Profitability
Crop
YIELD
Traits
… genes in environments
Plant Traits
Cell
Nucleus
Genessubstrate
Traitsenzymes
products
• Interaction across scales:
– Environment signals
– Gene responses = trait expression
Hammer, G., Sinclair, T., Chapman, S. and van Oosterom, E. (2004). On systems thinking, systems
biology and the in silico plant. Plant Physiology 134: 909-911.
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Paddock Manager
Report
Soilwat
SoilN
Erosion
Surface Residue
E
N
G
I
N
E
Crops
Climate
Forecast
Economics
Farm Manager
APSIM
APSFARM
Livestock
Pastures
Irrigation
Paddock Manager
Report
Soilwat
SoilN
Erosion
Surface Residue
E
N
G
I
N
E
Crops
Climate
Forecast
Economics
Farm Manager
APSIM
APSFARM
Livestock
Pastures
Irrigation
… analysing decisions at the whole farm
level
APSFARM
Rodriguez et al., 2009
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The normal, the novel & the natural
Growth, water use and life form analysis of cropping, novel agroforestry systems and native woodland
Systems simulation of the normal, novel &
natural
Increased boundaries to the biophysical system
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1.5 m
50 m
Soil Water
Extraction
… below ground dynamics in multi-point
agroforestry systems
Neil Huth 2007
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Combining bio-physical & ecological models
Woodlot Age (years)
0 10 20 30 40
Ha
bita
t C
om
ple
xity S
co
re
0
3
6
9
Trees Only
Trees + Grass
Trees + Grass + Shrubs
Edge Trees Only
Area (ha)
1 10 100 1000S
pecie
s0
10
20
30
40
500 to 5
5 to 10
10 to 15
15
Habitat complexity
score
Species richness
Ecologic
al model
APSIM
Tradeoffs in
economic &
ecological
performance
Neil Huth 2009
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In summary
• AusAID Food Security through Rural Development
Initiative represents a significant re-entry of Australia
in supporting African RDE
• Significant that agriculture RDE is a key delivery
platform
• Systems modelling will be a key contribution from
Australia