Systems, institutional frameworks and processes for early identification of skill needs

Dublin Conference on early identification of skill needs - Forward studies on occupations and skills in France

1

Systems, institutional frameworks and processes for early identification of skill needs

International Conference25th - 26 th November 2004, Dublin,

Forward studies on skills and Forward studies on skills and qualificationsqualificationsin France : in France :

Is it possible to coordinate so many Is it possible to coordinate so many actors ?actors ?

Marc-Antoine EstradeCommissariat Général du

Plan(Planning Office)


2

Prospect of skills and qualifications in France

• Economic and demographic background

• Who is interested in identification of skill needs ?

• The different levels of identification of skill needs

• Main difficulties


3

Economic and demographic background1. Retirements

• Retirements flows will grow by 50% in the next decade

• Change in retirement age will just delay the growth of retirements rates


4

From 2005, post-war baby-boomers will From 2005, post-war baby-boomers will retireretire

400

600

800

1000

40 42 44 46 48 50 52 54 56 58 60 62 64 66 68 70

En milliers

Total French population, aged between 40 and 70, by age

Large increase of retirements leaves from 2005 478 000 people per year 2000-2005 653 000 people per year 2005-2010

Economic and demographic background : retirements leaves

source : Insee, march 2001


5

Ageeing or young occupations Ageeing or young occupations proportion of workers over 50proportion of workers over 50

Managers and executives in banking and insurance,Civil servant managersExecutives in building and industries,TeachersGeneral managers, Farmers, Doctors

Some occupationswhere proportionof workers aged 50 ormore isover 30%

Household service occupations, Child Care workers,Civil servant clerks

Non qualified blue-collar workersWaiters, barmaid, bar helpersCashiers, Accountants

Occupations whereproportion of workersaged 50 or more is lessthan 15% Computer ingeneers,

Social and recreationnal workers

Source INSEE-DARES

Economic and demographic background : retirements leaves


6

Economic and demographic background2. Education and employment

• Only one third of all workers have been formally trained for the jobs they currently have

• Seniority increased for the more qualified workers

• Unemployment rates are very high among less qualified


7

Economic and demographic background3. Polarization of labour demand

• Labour demand is projected to increase strongly in the next years for managers, engineers and technicians, particularly in computer science-related activities, R&D, professional training and public relation occupations

• But, labour demand for less qualified positions would also be very dynamic, in contrast to previous decades, particularly for domestic services occupations (child care workers, personal and home care aides…), waiters and cashiers


8

Growth rate over…(in %)

Rank Occupations by FAP

Projectedemployment

at 2010(nb in

thousands)

Openingjobs due to

employmentgrowth(nb in

thousands)

1990-2000(Previousdecade)

2000-2010(Projected

period)

1 W1-instructors, coaches and recruiters 302 150.7 59.9 99.62 T2 – child care workers 1,090 448.8 89.0 70.03 N0-R&D engineers and managers 427 170.2 50.8 66.34 M0- computer engineers 590 204.4 47.0 53.05 U0-Professionals, communication and

documentation (marketing, advertising andpublic relation occupations, journalists, editors,librarians, archivists, …)

235 75.9 23.7 47.7

6 L5L6 – general Managers and Top Executives 800 229.0 18.0 40.17 L4- technicians of financial, administrative and

accounting services350 85.4 16.9 32.3

8 S1-cookers 286 69.7 17.8 32.29 T1 – housekeepers, Butlers, Cleaners and

servants, private household328 71.1 30.4 27.7

10 R0-Cashiers 351 72.0 28.7 25.8

Economic and demographic background : labour demand forecasts

Top of occupational growth of employment Top of occupational growth of employment by 2010by 2010

Source : Dares, French Ministry of Labour


9

Who is interested in identification of skills needs?

1. Firms

• They are in charge of worker training(training expenditures should represent at least 1,5% of wages)

• Firms are not prepared for demographic changes


10


2. Sectors

• 95% of workers are implicated in sectoral collective agreements (branches)

• Collective bargainings on training and employment


11


2. Sectors

• Joint commissions collect the money from firms and organize training sessions

• All sectors will set up observatories for occupations and qualifications


12


3. Regions

• Regions finance youth training measures(apprenticeship,…)

• Regions coordinate all the training operators in a regional plan for training development (PRDF)

• Regions are responsible for economic development


13


4. Public employment service

• PES needs informations to match demand and supply of occupations

• Provides training for unemployed

• Will cooperate at the local level within the « Houses of employment »


14

The different levels for skills and occupations identification

1. Sectoral level

• Future sectoral studies (CEP)• Co-financed by sectors and Ministry of Labour• Identify economic, technologic and social changes • Consequences of these changes on work contents

and organization, the qualifications, skills and training needs


15


1. Sectoral level

• About 70 CEP available since 1988

• Both quantitative and qualitative methods

• These studies are now more on a regional basis with region’s involvment


16


1. Sectoral level

• Observatories for occupations and skills

• Law in may 2004

• All are mainly involved in statistical collection

• Dissemination towards firms

• Some are directly involved in implementation of training policies


17


2. Regional level

• Regional observatories for employment and training (OREF)

• Co-financed by state and the region

• Mainly to prepare PRDF

• Some studies are based on a broad cooperation(region, PES, sectors, regional government departments : Labour, Education)


18


3. Vocational diplomas and certificates creation

• Ministry of Education, Adults’ Vocational Training Association (AFPA), sectors

• Usually based on vocational profiles defined through the needs expressed by sectors

• Common vocational education certificates european project


19


4. National level

• Ministry of Education : Forward study on Employement and Training

• From 1988, last one in 2004

• Future economic needs of qualifications, especially for young people leaving school


20


4. National level

• Macroeconomic projection on growth and employment

• Demand for occupations (levels of qualifications by sectors)

• Assumptions on the hiring policies of firms(internal mobility, unemployed, young)

• Levels of qualification of those leaving school


21


4. National level

• Planning Office : Forward study on occupations and qualifications (PMQ)

• With the Ministry of Labour

• First release in 2002, next in 2006

• Main focus on occupations


22


4. National level

• Occupation classification : Families of Professional Activities (FAP)

• A bridge between employment statistics and labour market statistics


23


4. National level

• Assumptions and results are discussed in a very large dialogue :social partners, ministries, PES, regions

• The quantitative results and qualitative assumptions will be cross-checked with sectoral observatories

• A special working group is devoted to help to set up sectoral observatories


24


4. National level

• Previous results were presented all around the country

• Disseminated through a special edition of an economic newspaper

• Website to gather studies and data


25

The main difficulties

• Training-oriented or job-oriented studies

• Cooperation and agreement on tools, methodologies, assumptions and results require time

• Policy implementation : should decision-makers be involved from the beginning or not ?

• Who is charge with transversal occupations and skills ?


26

Contacts

• Christine Afriat [email protected]

• Marc-Antoine [email protected]

• Commissariat Général au Plan18, rue de Martignac75700 Paris 07 SP - FRANCE

• http://195.46.219.20/cgp/accueil.htm

Systems, institutional frameworks and processes for early identification of skill needs

Documents

Transcript of Systems, institutional frameworks and processes for early identification of skill needs