System-Wide Advancement of User-Centric Climate Forecast Products University of Arizona Holly...

System-Wide Advancement of User-Centric Climate Forecast Products

University of Arizona

Holly Hartmann ([email protected])

Ellen Lay

Damian Hammond

NWS Climate Prediction Center

Ed O’Lenic

Lloyd Thomas

Melissa Ou

Kenneth Pelman

Unique among stakeholders

Relevant forecast variables, regions (location & scale), seasons, lead times, performance characteristics

Technical sophistication: base probabilities, distributions, statistics

Role of of climate information and projections in decision making

Common across many, but not all, stakeholders

Have difficulty distinguishing between “good” & “bad” products

Have difficulty placing information in context – “connecting the dots”

User Issues with Climate Information

Common across all groups: climate vs. weather

Uninformed, mistaken about forecast interpretation

Understand implications of uncertainty vs. false certainty

Use of forecasts limited by lack of demonstrated forecast skill

Concerns for Climate Science Enterprise

• Transferability

• Scalability

• Changed decisions and decision processes

• Public support for climate research

Enabling system-wide change

Sustainability

Perspectives on Climate ServicesPerspectives on Climate Services

Principles for Public Sector Approach

Equity vs. Impact vs. Return on Investment

Responsiveness to evolving needs

Focus on Process as well as Products

Our Project: Activities on Multiple FrontsOur Project: Activities on Multiple Fronts

Misinterpretation: Field-testing of communication effectiveness for all products as SOP

Connecting Information: Consistent linking of forecasts, recent observations, historical record

Forecast Quality: Customized forecast verification

Unique Needs for Products: Dynamic, customizable products

Easy Access: Information management portfolio

Connecting Information: Newsletter/report generation

Issue: Approach Goal: Products & Process!

YR1

YR3

YR2

Issues for Stakeholders

- too much information

- can’t discern ‘good’ from ‘bad’ information

Facilitating Information Intermediaries & Users

Information Management: Collections of products from different sources stored in customer-based portfolios.

Save a history of work on each product, so you can return to your work any time, easily repeat past analyses using updated data.

Report/Newsletter Generation

• create PDF reports of your product collections and analysis results for non-Internet users

• automatically includes provider-mandated legends, data sourcing, logos, contact information, caveats, explanations

• sections for intermediary’s value-added comments

1. CLIDDSS: Climate Information Delivery & Decision Support System

Provider

Image

Provider

Image

Provider Text

Provider Text

Provider Text Your Text

Your Text

Your Text

Your Text

First application: CLIMAS Border Climate Summary - March 2007

1. CLIDDSS: Climate Information Delivery & DSS

Synergistic growth in utility as more & more products link to portfolios & report.

We are actively seeking additional providers!

What Providers Get

- Control over ancillary content of products

- Maintain their ‘brand’ and image

- Track contextual use of products

What Intermediaries Get

- Can focus on adding value rather than accessing data

- Efficiency allows serving many more clients while hitting their individual needs

- Can maintain their ‘brand’ and image

- Interdisciplinary networking through group involvement in portfolio and report development

- Proprietary information can be included, securely

What Users Get

- Beginners benefit from experience of others, through access to pre-developed portfolios

- Capacity-building through group/team-managed portfolios and reports

- Customized translation by specialists of generic products

- Expert screening of ‘good’ information

1. CLIDDSS: Information Management and Newsletter Generation

1. How CLIDDSS Works

User’s computer has:Browser pointed to FET and

JDO Persistence Layer

Database

Database stores:• product states (not raw products)•All data except locally stored images/text

CLIDDSS Application

CLIDDSS Server

CLIDDSS SOAP Service

Product Submission SOAP Services

Apache Tomcat

FET Server

Product Retrieval SOAP Service(s)

•Product states, raw images/text•Provider Admin•Report Creation•Product Management

Product Component

Retrieval Requests: (submits a product’s

state)

Product Submission Request

Submitting Product State to CLIDDSS

Product Components

Return code

User Customized Report Template

Report can include: •Products•Images•Text

Hard drive stores:•PDF Report(s)•Locally saved images/text

Persistence Layer allows CLIDDSS to be easily moved from one database to another

Identify product Identify product components

- Supporting text

- Agency logo

- Selection criteria

Create a SOAP service for product Submit SOAP service WSDL file to

CLIDDSS developers Modify product HTML page to allow

users to request product submission

Create a product submission service for CLIDDSS based on submitted WSDL file

Send back product submission WSDL file and service location

Product provider’s work CLIDDSS Developer’s work

1. Steps to Become a Product Provider








Issue: Approach

YR1

YR3

YR2

NWS Local 3-month Temperature Outlook

http://www.weather.gov/climate/l3mto.php

User-selected product formats

2. Many product formats for diverse users

2. User customization of products – building CPC capabilities








Issue: Approach

YR1

YR3

YR2

Initially for NWS CPC climate forecastsNow L3MTO station forecasts, Alaska

Six elements in our webtool:• Forecast Interpretation – Tutorials• Exploring Forecast Progression• Historical Context• Forecast Performance• Use in Decision Making • Details: Forecast Techniques, Research

NWS Climate Services Division: Climate Focal Points at every WFO

3. http://fet.hwr.arizona.edu/ForecastEvaluationTool/

20042003 2005

3. Forecast Evaluation Tool: Linking Past, Present, Future

http://fet.hwr.arizona.edu/ForecastEvaluationTool/

wet

dry

3. Forecast Evaluation Tool: Verification

User-controlled evaluations

Move from simple to complex verification

Skill, data used to compute scores, paired forecast and observation map

Institute community software development framework: public, academic, private

• Version Control System

• Problem/Task Tracking System

• “Rules of the Road”

3. FET to CPC: not just a software transfer!








Issue: Approach

YR1

YR3

YR2

Dynamic webtools conflict with federal, academic policies & practices • Prohibitions on user profiles, registration, dynamic process initiation• Requirements for complex and time-consuming webpage approval • Copyright restrictions preclude efficient knowledge transfer and use

Federal agencies and academia should adapt, too• Serve broad user needs for knowledge development & information management• Exploit evolving technologies• Facilitate rapid deployment of user-customizable webtools• Support ‘products’ over ‘prototypes’• Use Creative Commons to encourage applications by private sector & others

Past Recommendations • Researchers should adapt: conduct stakeholder-relevant research, develop applications, transition to operations• Decision makers should adapt: use advances in climate information and forecasts, incorporate uncertainty and probabilities, use risk management approaches

New Tools for Climate Services: Challenges

System-Wide Advancement of User-Centric Climate Forecast Products University of Arizona Holly...

Documents

Transcript of System-Wide Advancement of User-Centric Climate Forecast Products University of Arizona Holly...