System Integration of Renewables Lessons from International Experience

Simon Müller, Head of Unit – System Integration of Renewables Unit

Joint IEA / BMWi Side Event: Grid Integration of Variable Renewables

11 December 2018 – COP24, Katowice, Poland

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IEA System Integration of Renewables analysis at a glance

• Over 10 years of grid integration work at the IEA - Grid Integration of Variable Renewables (GIVAR) Programme

- Use of proprietary and external modelling tools for techno-economic grid integration assessment - Global expert network via IEA Technology Collaboration Programmes and GIVAR Advisory Group

- Dedicated Unit on System Integration since June 2016 - Part of delivering the IEA modernisation strategy

Framework, Technology, Economics

2014 2016

Policy

2017

Implementation Progress & Tracking

2017 2018

Country Engagement

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Electricity generation growth by fuel

Renewable generation leads the growth of electricity among different technologies. Expansion of fossil fuel is expected to decline considerably.

Source: Renewable 2018: Analysis and Forecasts to 2023

- 500 0 500 1 000 1 500 2 000 2 500 3 000 3 500 4 000 4 500

2018-23

2012-17

2006-11

Generation growth (TWh)

Year

Coal and gas

Wind

Solar PV

Hydropower

Bioenergy

Nuclear

Others

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Variable Renewable Energy (VRE) on the rise

Experience has shown that cost-effective system integration of high shares of variable renewables is possible with the right policies and investments

VRE share in annual electricity generation, 2016-22

Source: Renewable Energy Market Report, 2017

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80%

Brazil India Chile

China USA

Australia Mexico

Italy Belgium

UK Germany

Spain Ireland

Denmark

% of total generation

PV share in 2016

Wind share in 2016

Additional PV share in 2022

Additional wind share in 2022

A substantial increase of VRE will occur over the next five years across the globe.

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Three main messages on system integration

1. Very high shares of variable renewables are technically possible

2. No problems at low shares, if basic rules are followed

3. Reaching high shares cost-effectively calls for a system-wide transformation

Conventional system

Variable Renewable Energy

FLEXIBLE Power system

• Generation • Grids • Storage • Demand shaping

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Different Phases of VRE Integration

Phase Description

1 VRE capacity is not relevant at the all-system level

2 VRE capacity becomes noticeable to the system operator

3 Flexibility becomes relevant with greater swings in the supply/demand balance

4 Stability becomes relevant. VRE capacity covers large majority of demand at certain times

5 Structural surpluses emerge; electrification of other sectors becomes relevant

6 Bridging seasonal deficit periods and supplying non-electricity applications; seasonal storage and synthetic fuels

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Wind & solar making strong inroads, but new challenges may emerge

Four phases of wind and solar integration

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System transformation

Policy and market framework

System and market operation

Actions targeting overall system Actions targeting VRE

Leve

l of V

RE p

enet

ratio

n

Flexible resources planning & investments

Grids Generation Demand shaping

Storage

System-friendly VRE deployment

24/7 System services

Location

Technology mix

Distributed resources integration

Integrated planning

Generation time profile

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Large-scale Interconnection Crucial Flexible Resource

• Inter-regional planning across different jurisdictions have emerged over time towards electricity market integration

- ASEAN - South Asia (SARRC) - ENTSO-E - the United States

• Cross-border arrangements can be complex and difficult to achieve.

- Political, commercial and technical challenges

Source: ENTSO-E (2016), Ten-Year Network Development Plan 2016.

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Flexibility options for different phases of VRE integration

Flexibility resources can mitigate the challenges from VRE integration in different phases and allowing the system to integrate more VRE

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Summary

• Challenges for integrating wind and solar are often smaller than expected at the beginning

- Power systems already have flexibility available for integrating wind and solar

• Challenges and solutions can be group according to different phases - Measures should be proportionate with the phase of system integration - Making better use of available flexibility is most often cheaper than ‘fancy’ new options - Barriers can be technical, economic and institutional, all three areas are relevant

• Mix of flexible resources needed to achieve system integration - Grid infrastructure crucial part of any flexibility strategy

• To reach high shares cost-effectively, a system-wide approach is indispensable

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simon.mueller@iea.org