Balancing Science and Discourse: Using Models to Support Grown Up Conversations

David Rees

Founding Partner

Synergia Ltd

Paul Atkins

Chief Executive

NERI

ENERGY AT THE CROSSROADS ENERGY INNOVATION FOR A SUSTAINABLE SOCIETY

WELLINGTON 2013

"I was distressed by the poor

quality of the debate

surrounding energy. I was also

noticing so much greenwash

from politicians and big

business. I was tired of the

debate – the extremism, the

nimbyism, the hairshirt.”

It’s time to start having gown up

conversations

David J.C. MacKay FRS

Professor of Natural

Philosophy

Department of Physics

Cavendish Laboratory,

University of Cambridge.

Science & Public Discourse

Thomas Dietz

Chair of US National Research

Council Committee on Human

Dimensions of Global Change

Professor of Sociology……

Michigan State University

From:

Van Den Belt, Marjan. (2004). Mediated Modeling: A System

Dynamics Approach to Environmental Consensus Building.

London, Island Press.

“What is needed are

practices that respect both

scientific analysis and

public discourse”

Question 1

From:

Van Den Belt, Marjan. (2004). Mediated Modeling: A System

Dynamics Approach to Environmental Consensus Building.

London, Island Press.

“How can the public be

engaged in a way that

leads to competent

deliberation using the best

available science?”

Question 2

From:

Van Den Belt, Marjan. (2004). Mediated Modeling: A System

Dynamics Approach to Environmental Consensus Building.

London, Island Press.

How can the science be

engaged while taking

proper account of the limits

of our knowledge and the

uncertainties inherent in

even the best analysis?

Question 3

From:

Van Den Belt, Marjan. (2004). Mediated Modeling: A System

Dynamics Approach to Environmental Consensus Building.

London, Island Press.

How can a process make

use of quantitative

information while giving

proper weight to qualitative

information?

And

Question 4

From:

Van Den Belt, Marjan. (2004). Mediated Modeling: A System

Dynamics Approach to Environmental Consensus Building.

London, Island Press.

How can discourse

proceed in ways that are

respectful of all viewpoints

while encouraging learning

and change on the part of

individuals and groups?

Challenge #1 (nested systems)

The events we see

The structure that creates

The patterns that emerge

We can only react to events

We can at least prepare if we see the patterns

Only when we understand the causal structure can we design a future that is different

Challenge #2 (feedback)

The Economist

December 2006

Challenge #3 (time)

“Academics and pundits love to throw

around the term ‘social capital’

and debate its nuances,

but most of them couldn’t

organize a block party.”

-- Ed Chambers

Challenge #4 (our skills)

Chambers ET, Cowan MA.

Roots for Radicals.

New York: Continuum, 2003..

“The challenge of involving the community

is especially difficult if one has been trained,

as I have been trained, to be an arrogant,

elitist prima donna.

I am the ‘expert,’ after all, and I help people

by sharing my expertise.”

-- Len Syme

Syme SL. Social determinants of health: the community as an empowered partner.

Preventing Chronic Disease 2004: 1(1) Accessed December 15, 2003.

Available from: http://www.cdc.gov/pcd/issues/2004/jan/syme.htm

Challenge #5 (our attitudes)

GOOD BAD

“Twaddle emissions are high at the moment

because people get emotional (for example about

wind farms or nuclear power) and no-one talks

about numbers. Or if they do mention numbers,

they select them to sound big, to make an

impression, and to score points in arguments” Prof David MacKay (2009)

Sustainable Energy - without the hot air

Model #1: 2050 Calculator

From: Sustainable Energy - without the hot air

David JC MacKay

If we find consumption is much less than conceivable sustainable production, then we can say “good, maybe we can live sustainably; let’s look into the economic, social, and environmental costs of the sustainable alternatives, and figure out which of them deserve the most research and development; if we do a good job, there might not be an energy crisis.”

Energy Balance Sheet

From: Sustainable Energy - without the hot air

David JC MacKay

Energy Balance Sheet

This picture says “it doesn’t matter what the economics of sustainable power are: there’s simply not enough sustainable power to support our current lifestyle; massive change is coming.”

2050 Calculator (Future Scenarios – Going Beyond Polarities)

Model #2: C-ROADS (Climate Rapid Overview And Decision Support)

To improve understanding of important climate dynamics among:

– policymakers & negotiators,

– businesses, educators, civil society,

– media, and

– the public,

to help ensure that climate policy is informed by vetted, peer-reviewed science.

http://climateinteractive.org/scoreboard

Predicting Climate Impacts

Stopping Growth in Co2 NOW!!

Simplified Carbon Cycle Sector

Simulation-Based Role-Playing

Models are ‘virtual worlds’ that allow what

Donald Schön calls a ‘reflective conversation

with the situation’.

Donald Schön (1983)

The Reflective Practitioner

Using Systems Modelling to Integrate Multiple Workstreams within Energy Sustainability Research (2011) (Work Conducted for University of Otago Energy Research Centre)

David Rees, Synergia, Auckland, New Zealand

Faced with data coming from multiple research streams within the multi-disciplinary research team, the research centre wanted ways of integrating their findings. The purpose of the modelling was to distill the key findings from the different research streams and any uncover issues that may have emerged during the research process. Phase II of that research project is now underway and over the next four years we will be working with the research team, using dynamic modelling to integrate the research workstreams, and use the simulation capabilites to explore future scenario arising out of the research.

Phase II (2012 – 2016) Energy Culture II Energy sustainability in households, transport and SMEs

Renewable Energy & the Smart Grid Exploring the supply and demand dynamics in a future based on extensive use of renewable energy sources

Regional Transport in Canterbury: Health Impact Analysis (2010) (Work Conducted for Environment Canterbury)

David Rees, Synergia, Auckland, New Zealand Dr. Adrian Field, Synergia, Auckland, New Zealand

In October 2009 Environment Canterbury initiated a Health Impact Assessment (HIA) of its Regional Land Transport Strategy. The aim of the HIA was to assess the links between transport planning, health determinants, and health outcomes for the Canterbury RLTS. This simulation model supported the HIA by exploring the links between transport planning and health outcomes that were identified in the initial scoping workshop. The HIA identified some of the linkages, such as those between safety and cycle use and focused its analysis on three key areas; safety, mode choice and healthier environments. The aim of the simulation model was to help inform policy by quantifying some of the key linkages and the size and timing of potential health impacts resulting from policy options being considered in the RLTS.

Options for Dementia Care (2010/11) (Work Conducted for Health Workforce New Zealand)

David Rees, Synergia, Auckland, New Zealand Dr. Geoff McDonnell, Adaptive Care Systems, University of NSW Dr. Ray Naden, Clinical Specialist

In work we undertook for Health Workforce New Zealand, Synergia explored the opportunities for improving care for people with moderate dementia in the home and community settings, and the potential impact this may have upon admissions to aged residential care (ARC). The report provided an overview of the modelling used to explore the dynamics of home-based care – specifically carer stress – and its impact upon reducing admissions to ARC. The report then provided a description of the models of care required to bring that reduction about. Because dementia is an area in which there is a paucity of data, our modelling had to bring together information from a number of sources. Furthermore, it had to allow a range of scenarios to be run under a range of different assumptions. The model allows stakeholders to obtain a richer understanding of what the future possibilities are, the constraints upon those possibilities, and the variables that have an impact upon determining which scenario is more likely to come to pass.

A Population-Based Approach to Planning Mental Health Services in Primary Care (2010) ((Work Conducted for Health Research Council)

David Rees, Synergia, Auckland, New Zealand Philip Gandar, Synergia, Auckland, New Zealand

Mild

Symptoms

Moderate

SymptomsSevere

Symptomsbecoming

moderatebecoming

severe

need for MH

services

PMHC

interventions

SMHC

interventions

recovering

moderaterecovering

severerecovering

mild

adequacy of

provider resources

quality of

care

prevention &management of risk

factors

investing in

service

improvement capability of

resources

amount of

resources

investing in risk

management

funds

available

investing in social

determinants

Social

Strengthchange in

social strength

model of care

requirements

service

demandaccess

levels

service

provision

<funds

available>

model of

careaverage level of

functioning

NoSignificantSymptoms developing

symptoms

developing moderate

symptoms

developing severe

symptoms

individual

attributes

RequiringSecondary

Careentering

secondary care

discharging from

secondary care

The issues that any region faces in planning Primary Mental Health Care (PMHC) are varied and complex. There is no one solution that can be applied across the country, and because of this it is important that planners in each region know their own population and its needs, and the characteristics of the people and resources who can respond to them.

This model is designed to help facilitate conversations about PMHC in local regions, so that they can design solutions that best fit their particular circumstances. It takes a systems approach because we know that any solution that does help improve mental health services will be required to address many issues. Isolating a single issue simply will not work. To facilitate the conversations we have designed a model of the key elements within PMHC and how those elements link together. The model is based on our conversations with planners and providers within each DHB and focuses on key themes that are common across all.

Understanding the System Exploring Plausible Futures

Supporting Scientific

Analysis and Public

Discourse

Multi-stakeholder Dialogue

and Learning

Policy Models: Supporting Grown Up Conversations

The true system, the real

system, is our present

construction of systematic

thought itself, rationality

itself, and if a factory is

torn down but the

rationality which produced

it is left standing, then that

rationality will simply

produce another factory

Robert M. Pirsig (1974)

Zen and the Art of Motorcycle Maintenance: An Inquiry

into Values