System Dynamics Approaches on Price-volume in Land by Land Categories -Focused on Real Estate,...

System Dynamics Approaches on Price-volume in Land by Land Categories

-Focused on Real Estate, Macro-economics, and Population factors-

Dr. CHOI, Hae-OkSenior Researcher, Spatial Information Research institute, Korea Cadastral Survey Corp.

(email: [email protected])

A Paper Prepared for conference on “Land and Poverty 2015: Linking land tenure and use for shared prosperity”


Contents Contents

II. Literature Review

III. Methodology

IV. Status Quo of the price-volume in land

VI. Summary and Discussions

I. Introduction

Base Run1

2 Effect of price-volume in

land by land categories

3 Effect of speculation

psychology by land categories

4 Effect of cadastral workloads

by land categories

V. Causal Loops and Stock-Flow Models

I. IntroductionI. Introduction

Central to the new paradigm is the fact that creativity, knowledge and access to information are increasingly recognized as powerful engines driving economic growth and promoting development in a globalizing world

The Korea private cadastral market steadily open in until 2017The Korea private cadastral market steadily open in until 2017

However, well-developed public sectors should offer efficiencies of operation, providing the consumer with choice and professional services in a timely manner and at competitive process.

This research also attempts to identify the price-volume in land acts as a backbone for effecting cadastral surveying workloads with system dynamics approaches which has been overlooked in former studies

This research tries to suggest specific systematic management for land administration system, policy decision guidelines for developing countries


II. Literature Review II. Literature Review

This research evaluated that the rapidly increase of cadastral surveying workload according to price-volume in land which is closely related with Mutjima investment under the Noh government policy from 2004 to 2008.

ProsPros

Song(2006) takes a critical stands , who stresses the positive relationships between real estate and cadastral workload.

Cadastral research center(2007) reconfirm Song’s research. The cadastral workload is attracted to plan to purchase real estate, differing by regions.

Former research suggests that simple relationship between price-volume in land and cadastral workload which consider each factors rather than consider all system together.

ConsCons


It is the main motivation that the overestimate real estate investment drives increasing cadastral surveying workloads.

Ⅲ. MethodologyⅢ. Methodology


③ Macro-economics

① Cadastral Workload

②Real Estate

④ Population

Cadastral Workload

Real Estate

+

Former research

Overcome Former

Research

System Dynamics (Powersim Program)-complex theory

• Methodology for Studying and Managing Complex Feedback System• A chain of Causes and EffectsUsed in…• Corporate Planning and Policy Design• Public Management and Policy• Energy and the Environment• Dynamic Decision Making • Complex Nonlinear Dynamics

Causal LoopStock-flow Diagram



http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:Adoption_CLD.gif

http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/b/b4/Adoption_SFD.gif

The Sequence of the research was as follows:

①identify and examine dynamics relationship between price-volume in land and cadastral workloads,

②to analyze implied meaning of simulated values and examines effectiveness of speculative bubbles,

③to characterize the dynamic relationships for evaluating variables efficiency,

④to support insufficient idea from simulation conducting questionnaire survey.


③ Macro-economics

① Cadastral Workload

②Real Estate

④Population


DB

CL

Results

Questionaires

Literature review

Data Base

Major variables

Casual loop(CL)

Total Casual loop

Correlations,

Multilevel experiment

Stock-flow diagram

Based on simulation

results,

Questionnaires

survey

Data Base

00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 190

100,000

200,000

300,000

400,000

500,000

답 대 임야 전 기타지

적측

량업

무량

Simulation Results

• Cadastral workloads by land categories

• Price-volume in land by land categories

• Speculative bubbles experiments

지적측량업무량

지적측량업무변화량

토지거래량

토지거래변화량

토지거래량에대한지적측량업무량탄력계수

토지거래변화율

인당 GDP

인당 GDP변화량

GDP변화율

추계인구

CD금리 환율

물가상승률

물가상승변화량

환율탄력계수금리탄력계수GDP탄력계수

금리변화율환율변화율

GDP 변화에 의한물가상승변화율

추계인구탄력계수

추계인구변화율

물가상승률탄력계수

물가상승률변화량

ExcelData_2

지목별 토지거래량

토지거래량을지적측량업무로

환산비율

지적측량업무량 합계

투기 심리

Stock-flow diagram

Total Casual Loop

Major Variables

Questionnaires Survey

• Real Estate• Macro-

economics• Population

Why it is happen the gap between

data and simulation

result?

Macro-economic

s

Population

Literature Review

Research Method

Real estate

The price-volume in land in Korea from 2000 to 2011


Ⅳ. Status Quo of the price-volume in landⅣ. Status Quo of the price-volume in land

Causal Loops of the Creative Industry

Ⅴ. Causal Loops and Stock-Flow Models Ⅴ. Causal Loops and Stock-Flow Models


Population

Real estate

Macro economics

B1

B4

B5

B2B3

B4

R2

R1

aged population

limit agingpopulation

death of agedpopulation

population

birth

death

the number ofhouseholds per housing

housing demand

housing price

construction newhousing

housing supply

the number ofhosing

demand of land forhousing

supply of land forhousing

land for housingprice

price-volume inland

speculationpsychology

regionaldevelopment

Decrease inRegional function

economically activepopulation

-

+

+

+-

+

+

-

the number ofhouseholds

+

-

+

+

+

+

+

+

-

+

-

+

+

+

+

+

-

-

-

the number ofarchitectural permission

+ -

GDP per person

GDP

inflation rate

exchange rate

interest rate

the price index ofstocks

++

++ +

+

-

cadastral work loads

variation rate ofcadastral work loads

price volume in land

variation rate of price-volume in land

elasticity rate of price-volume in land by

cadastral work loads

variation rate of price-volume

GDP per person

GDP variation rate perperson

GDP variation rate

population

CD interest rate exchange rate

rate of inflation rate

inflation rate

elasticity rate ofexchange rate

elasticity rate ofinterest rate

GDP elasticity rate

variation rate ofinterest rate

rate of exhange rate

variation rate of GDPby inflation rate

polulation elasticity rate

variation rate ofpolulation

elasticity rate ofinflation rate

variation rate ofinflation rate

ExcelData_2

ExcelData_5

ratio of price-volumeby cadastral work

loads

total cadastral workloads

investor sentiment

0.06

0.000.00

0.06 yr

6.43


Figure 3. Stock-Flow Diagram

PopulationReal-estate

Macro-economics

VI. Simulation results VI. Simulation results

1. Base Run


The variation rate of price-volume in land GDP per person

00 01 0203 04 05 06 0708 09 10 11 1213 14 15 16 1718 190

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

인

당G

DP

0001 0203 04 0506 0708 0910 1112 1314 1516 1718 19

- 0.020

- 0.015

- 0.010

- 0.005

0.000

0.005

금리

변화

율

00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 194.5

5.0

5.5

6.0

6.5

물가

상승

률

The variation rate of interest rate The rate of inflation

00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19

-200,000

-100,000

0

100,000

200,000

per yr

답 대 임야 전 기타

토지

거래

변화

량

2. Effect of price-volume in land by land categories


Simulation result of price-volume in land by land categories

00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19

0

500,000

1,000,000

1,500,000

2,000,000

Paddy field Siting Forest Field ETC.

Pri

ce-v

olu

me i

n l

an

d

3. Effect of speculation psychology by land categories 5%, 10%, 15%

Experiment s what if speculation psychology 5%, 10%, 15%


5% 10%

15%

00 0102 03 0405 06 0708 09 10 1112 13 1415 16 1718 19

500,000

1,000,000

1,500,000

2,000,000

PaddyFiled

Siting Forest Field ETC.

Lan

d T

ran

sacti

on

Volu

me

00 0102 03 0405 06 0708 09 10 1112 13 1415 16 1718 19

500,000

1,000,000

1,500,000

2,000,000

PaddyField


Lan

d T

ran

sacti

on

Volu

me

0001020304050607080910111213141516171819

500,000

1,000,000

1,500,000

2,000,000

PaddyField


Lan

d T

ran

sacti

on

Volu

me

00 0102 03 0405 06 0708 09 10 1112 13 1415 16 1718 19

500,000

1,000,000

1,500,000

2,000,000

PaddyField


Lan

d T

ran

sacti

on

Volu

me

0%

4. Cadastral workload gaps between simulation results and real data


Cadastral survey workload

00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 190

300,000

600,000

Simulation result Actual result

6. Questionnaires survey

Overview of Questionnaires survey

③ Macro-economics

① Cadastr

al Workloa

d

②Real Estate

④Population


VII. Questionnaires SurveyVII. Questionnaires Survey

male

Why happen the gap between simulation result and real data?

Economic depression -> new real estate policy -> indiscriminate investment -> population decreases


00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 190

300,000

600,000

지적측량업무량 합계 실제 지적측량업무량

VIII. Summary and DiscussionsVIII. Summary and Discussions

Key Research Objective

This research examines relationship between price-volume in land and cadastral workloads by system dynamics

Tentative Results

Price-volume in land is affected by government real estate policies over time.

For the first half of research period, this research finds that land category put forth the impacts.

These trends, however, are reversed in the long term: overall, price-volume in land absolutely depends on macroeconomics especially GDP per person.


Suggestions

Support timely LAS management in developing countries

Simulation results as references to land policy and strategy

③ Macro-economics

① Workload

②Real

Estate

④ Population

+00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19

0

100,000

200,000

300,000

400,000

500,000

답 대 임야 전 기타

지적

측량

업무

량

지적측량업무량

지적측량업무변화량

토지거래량

토지거래변화량

토지거래량에대한지적측량업무량탄력계수

토지거래변화율

인당 GDP

인당 GDP변화량

GDP변화율

추계인구

CD금리 환율

물가상승률

물가상승변화량

환율탄력계수금리탄력계수GDP탄력계수

금리변화율환율변화율

GDP 변화에 의한물가상승변화율

추계인구탄력계수

추계인구변화율

물가상승률탄력계수

물가상승률변화량

ExcelData_2

지목별 토지거래량

토지거래량을지적측량업무로

환산비율

지적측량업무량 합계

투기 심리

Stock-flow diagram

00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 190

300,000

600,000

지적측량업무량 합계 실제 지적측량업무량

Simulation Policy and strategy making


Thank you!Thank you!

Contact Information

Dr. CHOI, Haeok – [email protected]

KOH, Munsung – [email protected]

System Dynamics Approaches on Price-volume in Land by Land Categories -Focused on Real Estate,...

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