system design & management - MIT SDMsdm.mit.edu/wp-content/uploads/2016/04/smallerslides.pdf ·...

system design & management

Cultivating Resilience

Lessons from New Industries

Introduction

2 © 2016 Burl Amsbury

Electrical Eng’g, Control Systems

1999

U.S. Navy pilot

10 patents

1 patent

Business consultant for food, ag, functional med. good-again.com

Innovative grass fed organic cattle company.

Systems Thinking is Natural


Systems thinking is a natural consequence…



…of the painful unintended consequences caused by linear thinking.



It even shows up outside of academia and big business.

Regenerative Ranching


Regenerative Ranching


“Regenerative” because it improves ecological health metrics like wildlife diversity, water retention, and carbon sequestration.

Functional Medicine

8

Functional Medicine

9

“Functional” because it optimizes functionality – vitality – rather than targeting the mere absence of disease.

Fun Fact #1


In both industries, the most important predictor of success is a healthy microbiome (soil or gut).

Other Common Themes


Relatively small, fast-growth niches in troubled behemoth industries. Still...~$1B growing at ~20%.

1

94

U.S. Beef Sales ($billion)

Grass Fed Conventional

Other Common Themes


Medium- to long-term thinking is required. There are few quick fixes.

Other Common Themes


Resistance to change is a powerful counter-force. Change leadership is key.

Gleicher’s Formula

Fun Fact #2


Both niches’ leadership is dominated by women.

Regenerative Ranching Principles

15

(Mildly paraphrased)



•  It’s the interactions among land, people, livestock, wildlife, water, weather, and economic forces (“agents”) that determine systemic behavior.




•  Nature works because it’s complex, not simple. Mimic and learn from nature. Embrace complexity.





•  The difference between beneficial and harmful animal impact depends more on timing than headcount (think cyclic, intense pulsing vice chronic low-level presence).






•  Choose metrics for success wisely; consider context.






•  Choose metrics for success wisely; consider context. •  Embrace human creativity; do not over-control.






•  Choose metrics for success wisely; consider context. •  Embrace human creativity; do not over-control. •  Make data-based decisions whenever possible – intuition is

tricky.

Functional Medicine Principles

22

(Mildly paraphrased)



•  Practice evidence-based medicine; de-emphasize intuition and reductionist logic.




•  Small differences in genetics (“elements”) and environmental factors (“context”) of two similar humans (“systems”) can cause divergent systemic behaviors.





•  Understand the system to understand the symptoms.





•  Understand the system to understand the symptoms. •  Root causes are an interaction amongst genetic

predispositions and environmental conditions. (Enough with the nature vs. nurture debate!)







•  Human subsystems have web-like interconnections – they are a causal mess.







•  Human subsystems have web-like interconnections – they are a causal mess.

•  Choose success metrics wisely and in consultation with the patient (the system itself).

Systems Thinking by Any Other Name…




Regenerative Ranching’s “Holistic Management” arose because •  Calories as a metric leads to poor

health. •  Manufacturing mindset leads to high

risk, low margins, and… •  Pollution. Animal waste and fertilizer became two separate pollution and PR problems.



Functional Medicine or “Integrative Medicine” arose because •  Lifespan as a metric leads to poor

health. •  Disease is a symptom of systemic

and environmental dysfunction. •  Conventional disease treatment lags

scientific advancements in systemic biology.

U.S. #34 in lifespan, #1 in cost.



History’s “Big History” arose, perhaps, because •  “The first lesson of history is that we

do not learn from it.” –J. Rufus Fears Big History puts humankind in the context of a much larger story, looking for patterns and themes, acknowledging that written records are subjective, and embracing Internet-based multimedia.



Military aviation’s “OODA Loop” Observe-Orient-Decide-Act arose because •  In the Korean War, MiG-15s were

superior in every way to U.S. F-86 aircraft.

Nevertheless, we managed a 10:1 kill ratio. The OODA loop centers on Orientation, which is the agile adaptation of one’s mental model.



Systems Thinking gets repeatedly invented anew because it’s what works when solutions based on linear approximations of reality go haywire. So…why wait for the painful unintended haywire and chaos?

Systems Thinking – Baking It In


Prevent the Tragedy of the Commons


A shared resource, properly cared for, reward$ good behavior in the medium- to long-term, but not the short-term.



Identify your shared resources and contribute to their improvement.



Examples: •  Soil microbiome •  Internet bandwidth •  Mutual trust •  Insurance pool

Choose Holistic Metrics


Good ones – healthspan, soil health, nutrition, Bhutan’s GNH – may be hard to quantify and articulate.

Choose Holistic Metrics


Better to get a good holistic metric 85% right than a reductionist half-blind metric 100% right. Good metrics evolve.

Understand the Larger System


Step back and stare. Be curious. Look for the causal loops. Look for multiple reasons.



Manage by nudging; do not over-control. Listen. Observe. Be deliberate. Be pro-active. Adjust your mental model continuously.

© 2016 Burl Amsbury 42



Operationalize your process for understanding a system before you operationalize your process for managing it.


Sustainable ≠ Stable


The context in which your organization operates will change…so your organization must change at the right pace to last.

Industry Life Cycle



Example: As grass fed beef industry shifts from Introduction to Growth, profit margins will shrink and sellers’ power will diminish è Scale-up now is imperative; quality must become reliable…and beef has a 3-year production cycle.

Industry Life Cycle



Establish & nurture relationships with those who share your values and resources. This is your tribe…a shared resource in itself.

Industry Life Cycle



OK, so what is it then?

Industry Life Cycle

Sustainable = Resilience + Adaptivity


Embrace diversity…of people, ideas, endeavors. Do not hire in your own image; but do hire from your tribe.



Engineer modularity into your structure. Build Goldilocks connectivity – not too independent; not too interdependent. Think business units and franchises. Think of decentralization.



Create redundancy. Beyond multiple suppliers and customers, consider resources serving more than one purpose and purposes served by more than one resource. E.g. “flerds” and cross-training.



Build a learning organization. You’ve heard this before (The Fifth Discipline, Peter Senge).



Question your paradigms. Especially the big ones. Have courage. Grass fed?...Beef?



All interesting questions have the same first answer: “It depends.” On what? Do not be drawn into the tyranny of “or.” Look for the “and.” (Built to Last, Jim Collins) Especially when responding to the voices in your head.

Questions?


[email protected]

system design & management - MIT SDMsdm.mit.edu/wp-content/uploads/2016/04/smallerslides.pdf ·...

Documents

Transcript of system design & management - MIT SDMsdm.mit.edu/wp-content/uploads/2016/04/smallerslides.pdf ·...