Synthetic data, microsimulation and socio-demographic forecasting

Mark BirkinSchool of Geography

Professor of Spatial Analysis and Policy

Introduction

• Value of synthetic approaches– Population reconstruction – estimation of individual

profiles and relationships for small areas– Synthetic linkage– Comparative statics and what-if analysis– Dynamics, projection and forecasting– Platform for agent-based simulation, evolutionary

modelling and environmental interactions

The CDRC Vision

• Unlock the research / commercial potential of consumer data

• Render consumer data safe to use • Stimulate high impact research projects• Collaborative and integrated approach to

training and capacity building• Create conditions for the preservation of

legacy retail data

The Consumer Data Research Centre

Method

Probabilistic join

Constraint tablesSample Population

Synthetic Population

Population created using

spatial microsimulation

Agent-Based Modelling toolkit for visualisation and behavioural

modelling

Population 24/7 output destination constraints

Origin population constraints

Method

Demand Forecasting

Demand Forecasting

Demand Forecasting

Demand Forecasting

Mixed Tenure Housing

Mixed Tenure Housing

Source: Jordan R, Birkin M, Evans A (2014) An Agent-based Model of Residential Mobility: Assessing the Impacts of Urban Regeneration Policy in the EASEL District, Computers, Environment and Urban Systems, forthcoming.

Mixed Tenure Housing

Mixed Tenure Housing

Mixed Tenure Housing

x

Daily mobility

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DhtxFGgZxco

Daily mobility

Daily mobility...

Daily mobility

Daily mobility

Daily Mobility

Daily mobility

• Wide variety of applications

• Supports analysis, simulation, projection and policy appraisal

• Micro-data of increasing quality and availability, but still constrained by restrictions on linkage and re-use for commercial, public policy and academic purposes

• Reference: Harland K., Birkin M. (2015) Dynamic Microsimulation in Brunsdon C., Singleton A. (Eds) Geocomputation: A Practical Primer.

Conclusions