SYNERGIES BETWEEN MITIGATION AND

ADAPTATION THROUGH AGROFORESTRY AND

COMMUNITY FORESTRYLouis Verchot

Climate Change is Here

Lake Tanganyika:Steady increase in rainfall over last century

Steady increase in rainfall intensity (erosivity) over last century

Year

1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000

Tota

l Rai

nfal

l

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

1600

1800KigomaMbala

Year

1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000

Four

nier

Inde

x of

rain

fall

agre

ssiv

ity

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

3500

4000KigomaMbala

Climate Change is Here

Observed Changes 1950-1995

Green = wetterOrange = drier

(Source: Goddard and Graham, 1999) (Source: Goddard and Graham, 1999)

What can we expect from climate in the

future?Short answer: more of the same!

Maize yield Change in Maize yield Change in yieldsyields

<-2000

-1000

-250

+250

+1000

>2000

Jones and Thornton (2003)

Jones and Thornton (2003)

Despite the efforts of scientific and development organizations increase in agricultural

productivity in SSA is slow.

All cereals (5.2 hg ha-1 over 33 years)Year

1970 1980 1990 2000M

aize

pro

duct

ivity

(t h

a-1 )

0.6

0.8

1.0

1.2

1.4

Maize (6.8 kg ha-1 over 33 years)

Year1970 1980 1990 2000

Prod

uctiv

ity (t

ha-

1 )

0.6

0.7

0.8

0.9

1.0

1.1

Source: FAOSTAT

Since 1985 cereal yields have stagnated.

Year1985 1990 1995 2000

Mai

ze p

rodu

ctiv

ity (t

ha-

1 )

0.6

0.8

1.0

1.2

1.4

Source: FAOSTAT

Year1970 1980 1990 2000

Har

vest

ed a

rea

(x 1

06 h

a)

40

50

60

70

80

90

Increases in agricultural production in Sub-Saharan Africa have been largely through the

extensification of agriculture.

Source: FAOSTAT

The result is increasing food insecurity in SSA

How does all this relate to regional development

aspirations?The combination of population growth, expansion of farming to marginal land,

inappropriate agricultural practices, and climate change leads to some dramatic land

degradation, which compromises future sustainable development.

We need to consider ‘adaptation’ for agricultural productivity because

• The primary drivers of Clim are not going to stop

• Global conventions are not sufficiently effective to stop the increase of GHG concentrations

• Mitigation effects will only provide a partial ‘softening’ of the effects of CC

• Therefore, local climates and terrestrial ecosystems will change, threatening biota and human livelihood,

Yet, we hope that food & fibre production, ‘environmental services’ and ‘rural livelihoods’ can

improve, not just maintained

Farm level sustainability challenges

Land accessMarkets (inputs, outputs; access, prices)Knowledge (basic principles, innovative cap.)Technologies (strategic & tactical interventions)Water (drought, flooding, irrigation, drainage)Soil fertilityPest & diseaseOn-farm labour (HH size, off-farm act., illness)WeedsPotential production of germplasm usedAngry neighboursDissatisfied customers

C signal

**

*

**

*

*

Agroforestry and community forestry can help reduce the

pressure on forests by raising the productivity of

land

In addition to C sequestration

Short and Long duration fallows

Senna siamea (Chipata, Zambia)

Single species fallows of Crotalaria and sesbania (Mutumbu, w.Kenya)

Improved fallows can contribute to increased grain yield

Data: Msekera, Zambia P. Mafongoya

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003

Gra

in y

ield

(t h

a-1)

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

ControlFertilizerGlircidia fallow

Year(Annual rainfall (mm))

(580) (1158) (927) (1077) (1209) (789) (1342) (832) (1402)

SED

Biological Nitrogen fixation (kg ha-1) by coppicing fallow species across sites in eastern Zambia.

Species/provenances Kalicero Kalunga Acacia angustisma-34/88 158 374

Calliandra.calothyrsus-Embu 69 187

Grilicidia. Sepium-Retalhuleu 190 464 Leucaena collinsii-45/88 301 331

Leucaena pallida 91 119

Improved fallows decrease soil erosion losses

TephrosiaMinimum tillage

TephrosiaConventional tillage

Crotalaria Minimum tillage

Crotalaria Conventional tillage

Continuous maizeMinimum tillage

Continuous maize conventional tillage

Soil loss (kg ha-1)0 400 800 1200 1600 2000

0

10

20

30

40

Sesbania sesban Tephrosia vogelii Natural fallow Maize withfertilizer

Siratro

Treatments

Infil

trat

ion

rate

(m

m h

r -1

)

October 2000 October 2001

Infiltration rates are higher under fallows (Msekera, eastern Zambia)

Source; Nyamadzowo et al 2002

There are significant mitigation potentials through forestry sinks

0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80

Cropland management

Rice management

Grazingland management

Forest management

Agroforestry

Restoration degraded lands

Wetland restoration

Gt CO2e

Source: IPCC LULUCF Report

C sequestration in AF and CF

100

200

300

400Primary Forest

Managed forest

Tree-based systems

Crops, Pastures, Grasslands

Veg

etat

ion

Car

bon

(Mg

ha-1)

From ASB Climate Change Working Group,Palm et al.

Costs of enhancing sinks using CF and AF

Back of the envelope calculation

IPCC LULUCF report suggested that within 10 years:

• 10% of land could be under improved pasture management

• 20 % of available land could be under improved agroforestry

By 2040, 40% of the available land could be under improved agroforestry

Multistory systems with tree crops

Examples:

Pine, coffee, banana system, Indonesia

Peach Palm, Peru

Jungle rubber system, Indonesia

Cacao systems, Cameroon

Agroforest Production Systems

C accumulation in a model woodlot system in W.

Kenya

Time (Years)

0 5 10 15 20 25

Net

bio

mas

s an

d ca

rbon

sto

cks

(tonn

es p

er h

ecta

re)

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

SOIL CARBON DEAD WOOD MASSLITTER MASS BELOW GROUND BIOMASS ABOVE GROUND BIOMASS

Scenarios of C sequestration

Permanent agroforestry

(IPCC)

Community forestry

(ENCOFOR)

Time(years)

Land area (M ha)

conversion of area(%)

Rate of C gain(tC ha-1

y-1)

C (Mt y-1)

Rate of C gain

(tC ha-1 y-1)

Carbon (Mt

y-1)Agroforestry

10 630 20 3.1 391 1.26 159 20 27 521 212 30 33 651 265

Costs over two rotations• Plantation establishment – $780 • Operational costs – $440• C monitoring – $190• C documentation – $60 • Total costs – $1470 per ha• Equivalent of $10.04 per tCO2e

Applying the concept of additionality, C finance only has to overcome the financial barrier in

years 1-3

-1000

-500

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

1 3 5 7 9 11 13 15 17 19 21 23 25

Year

Cas

h flo

w ($

)

Rotation agroforestry $4.36 per tCO2ePermanent agroforestry $1.77 per tCO2e

IRR = 22% w/o C finance

Recommendations• Need to make C finance work for multiple

benefits including poverty reduction.

• Need to make C finance work in countries that do not necessarily have high deforestation emissions levels

• Need for demonstration projects that generate real benefits in rural communities

Some first steps to accomplish this

• Overcome the technical constraints of measurement and monitoring

• Address institutional constraints in developing countries (CDM and JI are bureaucratic)

• Address the thorny issue of permanence within the context of sustainable development

• Establish standards of meeting the sustainable development goals

• We need project development tools for partners in these countries