SXSW 2016 - Music 2020: How We Can Change the Future
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Transcript of SXSW 2016 - Music 2020: How We Can Change the Future
#music2020
#music2020
Sam Kling• SESAC, SVP/Creative Operations• @klingosaurus
Chris Castle• Christian L Castle Attorneys,
Founder• @musictechpolicy
Dave Bakula• Nielsen Entertainment, SVP/Analytics and
Client Relations• @davebakula
Gigi Johnson• UCLA Center for Music Innovation• @MusicInnovUCLA
WE ARE ALL FUTURISTS
#music2020
Core Future Challenges
• What can my company or artist do to thrive in 2020?
• What skills and capacities need to change?
• Who will be "winning" and how do we work with them?
• What will an Artist’s Life be like?
Flickr/joceykinghorn cc 2.0
#music2020
Futures are Co-Created
#music2020
How can we impact these possible futures?
Can we together Shift Direction?
Flickr/familymwr cc 2.0
#music2020
“Basically, I equate ‘free’ with the decline of the music business," Morris declared. "Why should anyone pay for anything if they can get it for free? In certain instances, it’s worth a discussion. But in general, free is death."
Doug Morris, Sony Music, March 2015
#music2020
“The future is here…it is just not evenly distributed."
• Kevin KelleyAs quoted by Kevin Kelley
#music2020
“What does a fish know about the water in which he swims all his life?”
Albert Einstein, 1936 (German); 1950 (English)
“We don’t know who it was discovered water, but we’re pretty sure it wasn’t a fish.”John Culkin, 1966
#music2020
Past futures -- how we got here?
#music2020
Our massively connected world . . .
11
#music202012
. . . connection is driving new collaboration and expectations of “presence"
#music2020
Forces of ChangeMusic
2000 & 2010
Music 2015 & 2016
Music 2020
Sharing Economy/
SaaS
Smartphones &
Geolocation
Digital Oligopolies
Changing Live Events
Global Seismic Shifts
Customer as Data Product
Silos of Streaming
#music2020
1999 AND NAPSTER: A PIVOT
• 14
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US Revenue MMCD CD Single CassetteCassette Single LP/EP Vinyl SingleMusic Video DVD Audio SACDOther Tapes 8 - Track Download SingleDownload Album Kiosk Download Music VideoRingtones & Ringbacks SoundExchange Distributions Paid SubscriptionsOn-Demand Streaming (Ad-Supported) Synchronization
LP CD
8 Track
Cassette
Source:RIAA
#music2020
2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 20140
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US Recorded Music Unit Sales, MM
CD CD Single CassetteLP/EP Vinyl Single Music VideoDVD Audio SACD Download SingleDownload Album Kiosk Download Music VideoRingtones & Ringbacks Paid Subscriptions
Ringtones
CDs
Digital Download Singles
Source:RIAA
#music20202003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 20140
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US Recorded Music, Inflation-Ad-justed Revenue (MM)
CD CD SingleCassette LP/EPVinyl Single Music VideoDVD Audio SACDDownload Single Download AlbumKiosk Download Music VideoRingtones & Ringbacks SoundExchange DistributionsPaid Subscriptions On-Demand Streaming (Ad-Supported)Synchronization
Source:RIAA
CDs
#music2020
Shift from Ownership to Access
#music2020
Shared Shifting Relationships with Music
Half =Video
#music2020
Warped Scale: Misleading in Shift from Ownership to Access
X150=units
#music2020Source: Information is Beautiful.net
#music2020Source: Information is Beautiful.net
#music2020Source: Information is Beautiful.net
#music2020
#music2020
Current pivots, signals, and drivers
•
#music2020
Levers and Drivers/STEP
• SocietalS• TechnologicalT• EconomicsE• Political• Policy / RegulationP
#music2020
New Business Models
Time Place
Data
Tech & Societal: Data
#music2020
Behavior as Value: “We” are the Product
Engagement and Predictive metrics, not just reporting
SuperFans, 80/20, and what we can do about it
New Super-influencers and folks in between
#music2020
Engagement and Predictive Metrics, Not Just Reporting
• Shazam - radio• Pandora AMP - Pandora -- "thumb moments"
• Next Big Sound — brands as data clients — challenges for Brands in Engagement
• Gracenote & Beatport & Spotify -- New genres
#music2020
http://everynoise.com/engenremap.html
#music2020
New Super-influencers and Folks in Between
• Playlisters – the new "album"• Social Media Marketing — social engineering — retargeting and shaping beliefs and behavior
• Ownership of behavioral patterns and data
#music2020
6% to Inform the 94%:Community, Engagement, Decisions
Recorded Music
Performance, Synchronization,Merchandise
#music2020
Changing Nature of Place, Performance, and Engagement
• Changing of live experiences — iBeacons, LISNR• Changing dynamics of live events in an era where kids’ aren’t getting drivers licenses — festival growth and big data in live experience
• Knowing WHERE you listening and understanding the Where — different regional tastes (Shazam, Pandora)
• Adjacency to purchase -- scraping psychographic and patterns of behavior -- aggregate and trackable individual
#music2020
Changing Interfaces / Places of Creation and Consumption
#music2020
Future Levers and Drivers/STEP
• SocietalS• TechnologicalT• EconomicsE• Political• Policy / RegulationP
#music2020
Competing Potential Futures• Personal assistants, Google Go/Siri, pre-selecting• Mobile dominance and adjacency• Wearables• Home-based data environments• Audio plugged in workforce -- individual audio environments
• "Post" smartphone – Echo/voice interfaces; gestural and context-driven
• New combinations and disrupters
#music2020
Alternate Narratives
Minstrels •Musicians in poverty at .2 cents/play•Perpetual touring
Data-driven •Renting audience attention and data –
digital sheep
Plug In •Micropayments of music•Immersive preprogrammed work soundscapes
#music2020
How "we" can act• Policy -- look at shared goals, change perceived
barriers• Partner and participate together• Pilot and create shared labs/co-labs• "Narratives" -- working together to change
choices, actions, and beliefs• "Bet" on new ecosystems -- facilitate, fund,
connect
#music2020
Next steps? Invitation to Co-Create• Invitation to Music-2020.org global conversation• Delphi methods research project on possible futures• LA discussions on Music 2020 in May and October • Speak, share, or send a great undergraduate in your life to UCLA’s Music Innovation Summer Institute
#music2020
Sam Kling @KlingosaurusChris Castle @musictechpolicyDavid Bakula @davebakulaGigi Johnson @MusicInnovUCLA
music-2020.orginnovation.schoolofmusic.ucla.edu
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