SXSW 2016 - Music 2020: How We Can Change the Future

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Transcript of SXSW 2016 - Music 2020: How We Can Change the Future

Page 1: SXSW 2016 - Music 2020: How We Can Change the Future

#music2020

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#music2020

Sam Kling• SESAC, SVP/Creative Operations• @klingosaurus

Chris Castle• Christian L Castle Attorneys,

Founder• @musictechpolicy

Dave Bakula• Nielsen Entertainment, SVP/Analytics and

Client Relations• @davebakula

Gigi Johnson• UCLA Center for Music Innovation• @MusicInnovUCLA

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WE ARE ALL FUTURISTS

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Core Future Challenges

• What can my company or artist do to thrive in 2020?

• What skills and capacities need to change?

• Who will be "winning" and how do we work with them?

• What will an Artist’s Life be like?

Flickr/joceykinghorn cc 2.0

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Futures are Co-Created

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How can we impact these possible futures?

Can we together Shift Direction?

Flickr/familymwr cc 2.0

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“Basically, I equate ‘free’ with the decline of the music business," Morris declared. "Why should anyone pay for anything if they can get it for free?  In certain instances, it’s worth a discussion. But in general, free is death."

Doug Morris, Sony Music, March 2015

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“The future is here…it is just not evenly distributed."

• Kevin KelleyAs quoted by Kevin Kelley

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“What does a fish know about the water in which he swims all his life?”

Albert Einstein, 1936 (German); 1950 (English)

“We don’t know who it was discovered water, but we’re pretty sure it wasn’t a fish.”John Culkin, 1966

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Past futures -- how we got here?  

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Our massively connected world . . .

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. . . connection is driving new collaboration and expectations of “presence"

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Forces of ChangeMusic

2000 & 2010

Music 2015 & 2016

Music 2020

Sharing Economy/

SaaS

Smartphones &

Geolocation

Digital Oligopolies

Changing Live Events

Global Seismic Shifts

Customer as Data Product

Silos of Streaming

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1999 AND NAPSTER: A PIVOT

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US Revenue MMCD CD Single CassetteCassette Single LP/EP Vinyl SingleMusic Video DVD Audio SACDOther Tapes 8 - Track Download SingleDownload Album Kiosk Download Music VideoRingtones & Ringbacks SoundExchange Distributions Paid SubscriptionsOn-Demand Streaming (Ad-Supported) Synchronization

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Source:RIAA

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2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 20140

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US Recorded Music Unit Sales, MM

CD CD Single CassetteLP/EP Vinyl Single Music VideoDVD Audio SACD Download SingleDownload Album Kiosk Download Music VideoRingtones & Ringbacks Paid Subscriptions

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Source:RIAA

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#music20202003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 20140

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US Recorded Music, Inflation-Ad-justed Revenue (MM)

CD CD SingleCassette LP/EPVinyl Single Music VideoDVD Audio SACDDownload Single Download AlbumKiosk Download Music VideoRingtones & Ringbacks SoundExchange DistributionsPaid Subscriptions On-Demand Streaming (Ad-Supported)Synchronization

Source:RIAA

CDs

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Shift from Ownership to Access

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Shared Shifting Relationships with Music

Half =Video

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Warped Scale: Misleading in Shift from Ownership to Access

X150=units

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#music2020Source: Information is Beautiful.net

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#music2020Source: Information is Beautiful.net

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#music2020Source: Information is Beautiful.net

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#music2020

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Current pivots, signals, and drivers

•    

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Levers and Drivers/STEP

        • SocietalS• TechnologicalT• EconomicsE• Political• Policy / RegulationP

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New Business Models

Time Place

Data

Tech & Societal: Data

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Behavior as Value: “We” are the Product

Engagement and Predictive metrics, not just reporting

SuperFans, 80/20, and what we can do about it

New Super-influencers and folks in between

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Engagement and Predictive Metrics, Not Just Reporting

• Shazam - radio• Pandora AMP - Pandora -- "thumb moments"

• Next Big Sound — brands as data clients — challenges for Brands in Engagement

• Gracenote & Beatport & Spotify -- New genres

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http://everynoise.com/engenremap.html

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New Super-influencers and Folks in Between

• Playlisters – the new "album"• Social Media Marketing — social engineering — retargeting and shaping beliefs and behavior

• Ownership of behavioral patterns and data

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6% to Inform the 94%:Community, Engagement, Decisions

Recorded Music

Performance, Synchronization,Merchandise

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Changing Nature of Place, Performance, and Engagement

• Changing of live experiences — iBeacons, LISNR• Changing dynamics of live events in an era where kids’ aren’t getting drivers licenses — festival growth and big data in live experience

• Knowing WHERE you listening and understanding the Where — different regional tastes (Shazam, Pandora)

• Adjacency to purchase -- scraping psychographic and patterns of behavior -- aggregate and trackable individual

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Changing Interfaces / Places of Creation and Consumption

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Future Levers and Drivers/STEP

        • SocietalS• TechnologicalT• EconomicsE• Political• Policy / RegulationP

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Competing Potential Futures• Personal assistants, Google Go/Siri, pre-selecting• Mobile dominance and adjacency• Wearables• Home-based data environments• Audio plugged in workforce -- individual audio environments 

• "Post" smartphone – Echo/voice interfaces; gestural and context-driven

• New combinations and disrupters

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Alternate Narratives

Minstrels •Musicians in poverty at .2 cents/play•Perpetual touring

Data-driven •Renting audience attention and data –

digital sheep

Plug In •Micropayments of music•Immersive preprogrammed work soundscapes

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How "we" can act• Policy -- look at shared goals, change perceived

barriers• Partner and participate together• Pilot and create shared labs/co-labs• "Narratives" -- working together to change

choices, actions, and beliefs•  "Bet" on new ecosystems -- facilitate, fund,

connect

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Next steps? Invitation to Co-Create• Invitation to Music-2020.org global conversation• Delphi methods research project on possible futures• LA discussions on Music 2020 in May and October • Speak, share, or send a great undergraduate in your life to UCLA’s Music Innovation Summer Institute

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Sam Kling @KlingosaurusChris Castle @musictechpolicyDavid Bakula @davebakulaGigi Johnson @MusicInnovUCLA

music-2020.orginnovation.schoolofmusic.ucla.edu

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