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Transcript of Sxsw 2015-humansarepredictable-150316233556-conversion-gate01
@Si_James_
#8charts
1815
WHAT WE SHOULD DO
VERSUS WHAT WE CAN DO
THE PROBLEM WITH (BIG) DATA*
35 Ze$abytes
2020
Data
Insight**
* The only men7on of ‘big data’ I promise ** I made this up – but trust me, I am a professional
PROFIT
WISDOM
KNOWLEDGE
INFORMATION
DATA
“THE MORE YOU DO SOMETHING, THE MORE LIKELY YOU ARE TO DO IT AGAIN”
#1
DRUGS:
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
0 1-‐2 3-‐5 6-‐9
Cannabis Ecstasy Cocaine
Number of times used Source: The Na7onal Ins7tute of Drug Abuse
Likelihood to take more
drugs
AFFAIRS:
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
0 1 2 3 Number of affairs
Likelihood to have
an(other) affair
Source: Psychology Today
TODAY: THE END OF “BREAK-UP SEASON”
TODAY
Source: amie / visual.ly
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
0 1 -‐ 2 3 -‐ 6 7 -‐ 10 11 -‐ 14 15 or more Previous convictions
One year proven re-offending rate
Source: Gov.uk
RECIDIVISM
Number of website visits
Likelihood to return again
REPEAT WEB VISITS
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8
UK-Football Club
US-Retailer
US-Automotive
US-Financial Services
UK-Retailer
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
Number of purchases
Likelihood to repeat purchase
REPEAT BUYING
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8
UK-‐Football Club
US-‐Retailer
US-‐Automo7ve
US-‐Financial Services
UK-‐Retailer
Number of website visits
Percentage of visitors
MOST PEOPLE DO THINGS ONCE
WHY IS THE WORLD FULL OF LOYALTY PROGRAMS?
Marriott Rewards®, our award-winning guest loyalty program, and The Ritz-Carlton Rewards® program, now in its fourth year, together surpassed 45 million members, accounting for more than half of our room nights worldwide. Our members are committed to us. Over the past seven years, the most active 1 percent of Marriott’s customers accounted for more than 30
percent of room nights.
Source: Marrio$ Interna7onal Inc. Annual Report 2013
HIGHER FREQUENCY OF PURCHASE PER CUSTOMER HIGHER PROPORTION OF REPEAT PURCHASERS LOWER DEFECTION INCREASED MARKET SHARE
“THE LONGER YOU LEAVE IT, THE LESS LIKELY IT WILL EVER HAPPEN”
#2
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30 60 90 120 150 180 210
Days into one year follow up period
One year proven re-offending rate
RECIDIVISM
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
UK Football
US Retail
US Auto
UKRetail
Days since last visit
Repurchase Likelihood
REPEAT VISIT LIKELIHOOD
“LOTS OF CUSTOMERS ARE UNPROFITABLE”
#3
VILFREDO PARETO
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%
% of customers
% of revenue
A TRADITIONAL PARETO
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
120%
140%
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%
A REALISTIC PARETO
% of revenue
% of customers
“SEGMENTATION IS REDUNDANT IN DIGITAL” NOBODY IS A SEGMENT
#4
MY COLLEAGUE NICK GEEK PHOTO OBVIOUSLY STOLEN
MEET NICK
MASSIVE WHEY PROTEIN CLOSE UP
HIS DESK
SEMI-PRO IMAGE FROM FILM HEADBAND INC. SEMI-PRO
IMAGE – HEALTHY FOOD
SUPERFOODS, YUM
IMAGE – INSTANT FOOD
NUCLEAR DINNER
IMAGE 3 – BACON SANDWICH
MMM, BACON
Mike works as a graphic designer in a small agency and one day wants to run his own agency. He’s got an iPhone and a Vodafone 360 H1 by Samsung phone, one personal and one for work. He follows friends and key people in the design industry via Twi$er, blogs, and RSS feeds. He uses his iPhone for work emails and his H1 for Facebook. He uses Twi9er to post updates about what he’s up to with his project work as well as using it as a tool to find out what people are up to and invite them to events. He uses Facebook to share personal photos and video and keeps a Tumblr blog to post interes7ng things he discovers and share them with his friends and followers.
Zoe is studying a Masters in Interna@onal Development, unsure of what the future lies ahead of her. She is constantly using the Facebook app on her Vodafone 360 M1 by Samsung phone as well as on her PC to upload and tag photos and videos from places she’s been to with her friends, as well as to find out and comment on who’s been where at which club nights and par7es. She regularly texts and messages her friends to find out if they’ve heard about a new pop-‐up shop she heard about via a flyer, or one-‐off warehouse party started by friends of friends.
Geoff works as an senior architect in a large prac7ce and has a wife and a young girl and 6-‐month baby boy. He thinks the @me is right to start looking for a bigger home for his family. Geoff uses his Vodafone 360 H1 to take photos and videos of prospec7ve sites he visits. He purchased the H1 because of its ability to check email, surf the web, use apps, and take photos and video. He loves the built-‐in camera and also uses this phone on holiday to take snaps of the family as it fits in his pocket and doesn’t want to carry a large SLR around with him. He likes to upload his photos and video to Flickr and share them with his family and friends. He also creates photo books from his holiday snaps to give as gibs to his parents.
Techie Socialite Cost-‐conscious
MIKE ZOE GEOFF 25-‐34 single male living with friends
18-‐33 single female living with friends
35-‐49 married male with young kids
#1 THE MORE YOU DO SOMETHING = F #2 THE LONGER IT TAKES = R #3 UNPROFITABLE CUSTOMERS = V
# Ref Name Descrip@on Strategy Which means
1 HHH High Recency, High Frequency, High Value
Your best customers Milk Protect
2 HHL High Recency, High Frequency, Low Value
Li$le and oben Addict Cross sell
3 HLH High Recency, Low Frequency, High Value
Occasional bingers Upsell Up sell
4 HLL High Recency, Low Frequency, Low Value
Noobs School Nurture
5 LHH Low Recency, High Frequency, High Value
Former best customers Oh shit Win back
6 LHL Low Recency, High Frequency, Low Value
Former li$le and oben Oh well Low priority
7 LLH Low Recency, Low Frequency, High Value
Former bingers Whatever Low priority
8 LLL Low Recency, Low Frequency, Low Value
Former noobs Trash Ignore
“NEVER TRUST A RATIO”
#5
NPS
These rela7ve Net Promoter Scores were then correlated with organic growth measures. In most industries, NPS explained roughly 20% to 60% of the varia7on in organic growth rates among compe7tors.
http://www.bain.com/publications/articles/the-economics-of-loyalty.aspx
ROI = NET REVENUE COST
“ALGORITHMS HAVE NO ETHICS”
#6
FACEBOOK YEAR IN REVIEW
THE RANDOM DARKNET SHOPPER
IMAGE EU MAYBE CHART OF INSURANCE CLAIMS BY GENDER
WHATSAPP EVIDENCE USED TO DIVORCE NEARLY HALF OF ITALIAN ADULTERERS
GIAN ETTORE GASSANI, ITALIAN ASSOCIATION OF MATRIMONIAL LAWYERS
“WE HAVE SEEN ADULTERERS USING THE SERVICE TO MAINTAIN THREE OR FOUR RELATIONSHIPS – IT’S LIKE DYNAMITE”
“THE CONSEQUENCE OF GETTING IT WRONG”
#7
MIND THE GAP
WHO IS THE MOST FAMOUS SPORTS PERSON
TO WRONGLY FAIL A DRUGS TEST?
DIANE MODAHL
FOR EVERY 5 LIVES SAVED, 17 WILL HAVE TREATMENT THAT DON’T NEED IT
Source: Cancer Research UK
PROBLEM WITH MARKETING: LACK OF CONSEQUENCES
“POLICING THE POLICE”
#8
STOP AND SEARCH IMAGE UK POLICE - ARMED
SECTION 60 STOP AND SEARCH WHITE PEOPLE: 87% OF POPULATION 41% OF SEARCHES 59% OF ARRESTS
HEADLINE GCHQ SPYING ON EMAILS NSA SAME
MISSING TEENAGERS GOING TO SYRIA HEADLINES – HOW?
THINGS WE KNOW THINGS WE KNOW ARE WRONG THINGS WE SHOULDN’T KNOW THINGS WE SHOULD KNOW
THANK YOU
@Si_James_
#8charts
