SWEF_2011_SummaryReport

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2011 SPACE WEATHER ENTERPRISE FORUM SUMMARY REPORT

This document provides a summary of the 2011 Space Weather Enterprise Forum (SWEF)an eventsponsored by the National Space Weather Program Council and hosted by Mr. Samuel P. Williamson,Federal Coordinator for Meteorology, on June 21, 2011, at the National Press Club in Washington, D.C.

OVERVIEW

Purpose and Theme: The SWEF brings together the space weather community to share information andideas among policymakers, senior government leaders, researchers, service-provider agencies, private-sector service providers, space weather information users, media, and legislators and staff from CapitolHill to raise awareness of space weather and its effects on society. This year, we continued this outreachbut sharpened the focus on critical infrastructure protection and human health and safety, with thenecessary underpinnings of research, improved products and services, and applications to serve a broadand growing user community. Our ultimate goal was to improve the Nations ability to prepare for, avoid,mitigate, respond to, and recover from the potentially devastating impacts of space weather events on ourhealth, economy, and national security.

This years theme was Solar Maximum: Can We Weather the Storm?As we approach the next peak ofsolar activity expected in 2013, our Nation faces multiplying uncertainties from increasing reliance onspace weather-affected technologies for communications, navigation, security, and other activities, manyof which underpin our national infrastructure and economy. We also face increasing exposure to spaceweather-driven human health risks as trans-polar flights and space activities, including space tourism andspace commercialization, increase.

With strong partnerships built over the years, approximately 220 people from the Federal government andthe military (47 percent), industry (32 percent), the research and academic communities (10 percent),international stakeholder agencies (3 percent), and media members (8 percent) participated in the forum.All of the presentations that were given at the 2011 SWEF and supporting material can be found at:

http://www.nswp.gov/swef/swef_2011.html.

Objectives: The Opening Session and five other sessions during the one-day forum were structured toaddress the following objectives:

Share information across the enterprise and raise awareness for new users, decision makers, andpolicymakers; areas of exchange include the following:

o New research resultso New transitions of research into operationso New products and serviceso Integrated, unified space weather operational capabilities

o International activities and cooperation

o

Commercial space weather users and providerso Integration of social science into space weather services

Identify effective approaches to build resilience across society, particularly in criticalinfrastructure protection and support.

Identify effective approaches to raise awareness in the broader society.

Improve communications within and external to the enterprise.

Collect information to support a new National Space Weather Program Implementation Plan.

Note: Speaker and audience remarks are paraphrased and not verbatim quotes.

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Forum Outcomes: The results and findings from the 2011 SWEF, summarized below, will serve as inputto the new National Space Weather Program Implementation Plan.

Extreme space weather events may overwhelm our ability to cope with impacts to our vitalnational infrastructure.

o Space weather has the potential for extreme societal impacts, including the risk ofwidespread and long-term power disruption that could impact up to 130 million people.(National Academies of Science [NAS] Study)

o We must develop a better, more specific, more reliable prediction and warning capabilityto enable government and civil leaders to make informed decisions.

Since space weather can cause a variety of impacts, ranging from routine minor inconvenience tovery rare extreme events, it is important to not overemphasize the low frequency/high impactevents.

o An extremist approach will lose emphasis and support while we wait for the big one.o Significant impacts can occur any time during the solar cycle, not just at solar maximum.

The potential impacts of space weather are not widely known or understood by the public;however, they are beginning to recognize that space systems are important to our daily lives andthat potential threats exist.

o Greater emphasis on education and public outreach is needed. Social media may prove tobe the critical tool to provide timely information to the public.

o Due to our heavy reliance on a technological and space-enabled infrastructure, there isvirtually no aspect of our lives that is not potentially affected by space weather.

o Preparedness campaigns need to focus on the risks of space weather and then recommendrisk reduction strategies and identify mitigation opportunities.

Improved prediction capabilities are needed to provide adequate warnings of potential impacts.o Space weather phenomena tend to be global in nature but have distinct and highly

variable impacts on local scales.o Interagency and international collaboration is needed to significantly improve space

weather observing and prediction capabilities

We must capitalize on the synergy of interagency and international partnerships to significantlyimprove our capability to provide space weather services.

o The Office of the Federal Coordinator for Meteorology (OFCM) will facilitate and

coordinate the development of the Unified National Space Weather Capability, which

will be an interagency collaboration.


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Session 1: Forum Welcome and Introduction

Coordinator: Mr. Michael Babcock (OFCM)

Welcoming Remarks: Mr. Samuel P. Williamson, Federal Coordinator for Meteorological Servicesand Supporting Research

Mr. Williamson welcomed the audience and presented an overview of the agenda and goals for the 2011SWEF. He said that. as the next solar maximum approaches in 2013, space weather and its impacts havebecome an emerging issue and we must work together to weather this potential storm from space. Mr.Williamson provided some examples of potential space weather impacts and stressed that we can and are,in fact, preparing for them. During his discussion of the SWEF agenda, he made particular note that anew, national initiative on space weather would be announced in Session 4.

Keynote Speaker: The Honorable Yvette D. Clarke, (D-NY), Ranking Member of the Subcommitteeon Cybersecurity, Infrastructure Protection, and Security Technologies

Ms. Clarkes told the forum attendees that summits like the SWEF are important events for buildingcollaboration and rendering greater visibility to important national issues. She noted that the topic of

space weather (and protecting our most critical infrastructure the electric grid) is gaining momentum. In2009, we realized that we have little protection against attacks (man-made or natural) on the electric gridand from cyber attacks, and time is not on our side. Representative Clarke commended the NationalElectric Reliability Commission (NERC) for its work relative to looking at ways to protect against solarstorms (i.e., electromagnetic phenomenon), but we must move faster. Federal agencies, the Office ofScience and Technology Policy (OSTP), and Congress are involved and concerned about the impacts ofspace weather. In 2010, the Grid Act passed in the House but stalled in the Senate. That bill looked at ourvulnerability to cyber attacks and the overall vulnerability of the electric grid. In 2011, the Houseintroduced the Shield Act which looks at threats to the electric grid. Cyber attacks will be taken up in aseparate House bill.

Ms. Clarke told the audience that, although there is not a sense of urgency throughout the entire Congress

regarding on space weather and its impacts, we need to push more forcefully to move forward. In closing,she stated that a modern civil society is characterized by (1) clean water, (2) a functioning sewer andsanitation system, and (3) an electrical system. Since our electric power underpins all other components,protecting the grid must be a national priority.

Comments, Questions, and Answers

(Q): Why is there a lack of urgency in Congress regarding space weather?(A): Congress is distracted. Were not focused on this particular threat to the U.S. Thats why

advocacy is necessary. The more we bring this to the Houses attention, the more the Housewill know that we are concerned about it.

(Q): What rebuttal remarks have you gotten?(A): Passing the Grid Act shows that there is no rebuttal. The House believes fortifying the grid

is important. Its just a matter of getting focused.

(Q): What other committees are interested in solar activities?(A): The Houses Science and Technology Committee and other committees have been focused

on solar activities and have held hearings on the subject. My hope is that partnering withRep. Trent Frank (R-AZ) will lead to successful support for the Houses work on spaceweather and the impacts of solar events.


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(Q): Do commercial utilities recognize they have a responsibility for infrastructure protection?(A): Yes. They understand, but Congress needs to incentivize efforts to protect infrastructure.

Thats why government is so important. When the House raises this to a level of policy, theutilities know that we are serious about electric grid protection. The Grid Act and the ShieldAct demonstrate that this issue is on the Houses policy radar screen.

Invited Speaker: Dr. Margaret Cavanaugh, Deputy Assistant Director, Geosciences (GEO)Directorate, National Science Foundation (NSF)

To provide a big picture context, Dr. Cavanaugh began her remarks by quoting from President ObamasState of the Union address that as Americans, We need to out-innovate, out-educate, and out-build therest of the world. She cited OSTP statements that of all the challenges we face as a Nation and as a planet,none is as pressing as the three-prong challenge of climate change, sustainable development, and the needto foster new and cleaner sources of energy. She said she thought OSTP and the Office of Managementand Budget (OMB) Fiscal Year (FY) 2012 priorities indicate a focus on space weather.

She told the forum that the trend at NSF is to identify and foster the link between fundamental researchand actions that society can take. The emphasis on global climate change research is a good example ofthis. Major GEO investments in 2012 include building a world class research infrastructure and a cyberinfrastructure framework for the 21stcentury. She emphasized that we must continue infrastructureinvestment even in tough economic times.

Two important initiatives with the GEO directorate are the Creating a More Disaster Resilient America(CaMRA) initiative and the Science, Engineering and Education for Sustainability (SEES). The objectiveof CaMRA is to catalyze basic research efforts in hazard-related science to improve forecasting andprediction of natural and man-made hazardous events, while the SEES initiative aims to generatediscoveries and build capacity to achieve an environmentally and economically sustainable future.

Dr. Cavanaugh pointed out that several Federal agencies are following the NSF example in space weathermodel development and stated that NSF funded development of the first large-scale, physics-based spaceweather model that has transitioned into operations.


(Q): Dr. Devrie Intriligator (Carmel Research Center (CRC), Inc.): Where does the private sectorcome in with respect to the partnerships?

(A): Dr. Cavanaugh: In the university grants which NSF issues. The NSF Director is thinkingabout how NSF (as an entity) can make these partnerships directly with the private sector.Stay tuned for more novel ideas from the Director.


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Luncheon and Featured Speakers


Luncheon Speaker: Dr. Kathryn Sullivan, Assistant Secretary of Commerce for EnvironmentalObservation and Prediction, NOAA

Dr. Sullivan focused on 2 points: (1) the threat from space weather is indeed real and (2) NOAArecognizes this threat and is committed to offering the best observations and prediction services possible.

She said she believed the attitude toward recognizing the importance of space weather and the immediateimpacts of space weather events is still developing in the world and that most people have an out of sightand out of mind attitude. However, critical infrastructure including GPS, energy generation grids, etc.,are susceptible to the adverse impact of space weather. Dr. Sullivan echoed the position of Dr. JaneLubchenco, the NOAA Administrator, that space weather is everybodys business and the occurrence ofan extreme solar storm capable of societal devastation is a matter of when not if.

Dr. Sullivan stated that NASA also takes space weather very seriously. To that end, astronauts areofficially classified as radiation workers outfitted with dosimeters for space travel. From her first hand

experience on the Hubble Space Telescope deployment mission, she could attest just how valid theconcerns about space weather are to astronaut safety. They depend on the NOAA solar activity forecaststo limit radiation exposure from solar energetic particles.

She pointed out that, as new space-based and wireless technologies emerge, our vulnerability to spaceweather events increases. Challenging the audience, she asked, How do we build resistance andresiliency into our society? How much risk is acceptable? How much risk can we buy down? Then shedescribed efforts to replace the Advanced Composition Explorer (ACE) spacecraft to provide criticalspace weather observations and inputs for advanced warning. The Obama Administration has proposedfunding to replace ACE with the Deep Space Climate Observatory (DSCOVR) mission as soon as 2014.

Dr. Sullivan concluded by emphasizing the importance of continuing development and the advancement

of space weather capabilities to lessen potential societal impacts. She lauded the Unified National SpaceWeather Capability Initiative sponsored by the National Weather Service and OFCM as an importanteffort to help build our resiliency.

Featured Speaker: Mr. David Jones, President, StormCenter Communications, Inc.

Mr. Jones discussed the challenges in broadcast meteorology, particularly when TV meteorologists haveto cover unfamiliar topics such as climate change, space weather, and other natural environmental issues.A George Mason University survey of TV news broadcasters showed that nearly all of the respondentsrely on their TV meteorologist to cover science or environmental stories since they generally have thehighest level of scientific knowledge on the entire TV station staff.

He said that, due to severe and continuous time pressure, TV meteorologists dont have time to researchand learn new things, since they are either performing, preparing for, or advertising their broadcasts.

Why do TV meteorologists need to be trained in communicating space weather? Mr. Jones said the TVmeteorologist is the one person that gives public their daily dose of science. About 64 millionhouseholds can be reached through their TV weather cast108 million people. The need to train TVmeteorologists is clear. He estimated that fewer than 1 percent of the TV meteorologists know aboutspace weather warnings and what they mean, yet news directors turn to the TV meteorologist to explainwhat is going on. Since they have not been trained to understand space weather impacts, and they are not


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aware of space weather services and the multitude of data available, they often fail to correctlycommunicate the message and the public suffers as a result.

Mr. Jones explained the role that StormCenter Communications, Inc., has played in helping to alleviatethe problem. It provides a pipeline of information from agencies and scientists, gives scientists an outletto discuss issues, and provides training workshops for broadcast meteorologists. StormCenter has

developed the ability to create real-time visualizations using Google Earth for real science collaboration,which should spur investment, foster partnerships throughout government, and improve communication,collaboration, and comprehension across the industry.


(Q): Dr. Ernie Hildner (retired from NOAA): What role do you see for the AmericanMeteorological Society (AMS) in helping convert or educate broadcast meteorologists inbecoming more expert on space weather? Is the AMS certification program a possiblesolution for space weather?

(A): Mr. David Jones: I think so; we have a proposal to put together workshopsthe AMS and

StormCenter are partners in putting together short courses and full-day workshops onmany weather subjects. The AMS role is through its certification process. TVmeteorologists have to get a certain number of continuing education credits. TV stationsusually pay meteorologists with an AMS seal more because the station promotes thatcredential.

(Q): Mr. Allen Roth (Advanced Fusion Systems): How do we deal with misinformation andoverly sensationalized reporting on space weather events? Even the SWEF is focused onSolar Maximum when, in fact, space weather events are occurring now. An extreme solarevent can occur any time in the solar cycle. TV broadcasters show the latest spectacularimagery of solar flares and when no impacts occur, there is a loss of credibility.

(A): Mr. David Jones: The strategy to deal with that issue is when a TV station dedicates itself

to science education. The problem is that the resources at the station are diminishing. Wehave to find ways to help the broadcast community without sensationalizing potentialimpacts.

(Q): Dr. John Allen (NASA HQ): In the absence of broadcast meteorologists having theexpertise in space weather, have there been deliberate efforts by them to go out and getthe information?

(A): Mr. David Jones: The education and outreach provided by the NASA/NOAA workshopsare very important, but it takes more than that to keep it going after that workshop is over.You need to start delivering real products so they can then build on that short course,launch an application, etc., to see if theres something they can talk about today. Thatrequires money.


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Session 2 Critical Infrastructure Vulnerability to Space Weather

Moderator: Mr. John McClelland

Director, Office of Electric Reliability,

Federal Energy Regulatory Commission (FERC)

Coordinator: Ms. Patricia MulliganPanelists:

Mr. John Kappenman, Storm Analysis Consultants Mr. Eric Rollison,Engineer of Reliability Assessments, North American Electric Reliability

Corporation (NERC)

Mr. Mitch Narins, Chief Systems Engineer for Navigation Services, Federal AviationAdministration (FAA)

Mr. Tim Deaver,Vice President, Hosted Payload Development, SES World Skies U.S.Government Solutions

- The Session Moderator, Mr. John McClelland, set the stage for the session by stating that the issue ofgeomagnetic storm (GMS) impacts is getting more traction. Recent publications in the WashingtonPost,Scientific American, andBBC Knowledgeclaim that a cosmic Katrina could wipe out society.He cited a recent study which concluded that a storm similar to the 1921 solar and geomagnetic

storms could damage hundreds of transformers and knock out power for 130 million people and thenposed the question, Are we prepared to meet that inevitability?

- Mr. John Kappenman reviewed the vulnerabilities of power grids and showed video, illustrating how20 minutes of bad space weather caused blackouts in Quebec, Canada, during a 1989 GMS. Hepointed out that GMSs have been known to be on the order of 10 times more severe than what wasobserved in the 1989 storm. Simulations of severe scenarios give projections of transformer exposureand conservative estimations show power blackouts all along the east coast of North America. Mr.Kappenman said the March 1989 storm taught us that GMSs have the unique ability to, within a fewminutes, cause damage to large transformers that could take on the order of a year to replace. Duringsevere GMSs, power grids act as space weather antennae. Since power grids are getting bigger andusing higher voltages, they are becoming even more susceptible. He asserted that we have been

unknowingly engineering a power grid that can couple into overwhelming GMS-induced currentswithout a design code for mitigation. Given sufficient time, a major storm is a certainty. We mustadapt the national power grid to mitigate these potentially devastating impacts.

- Mr. Eric Rollison described NERCs mission to develop and enforce reliability standards, assesscurrent reliability, and identify key issues. He stated that NERC is an open organization and aims tokeep industry abreast of potential threats. GMSs are a critical risk to bulk power systems and havebeen identified as a top priority, since disturbances can introduce ground-induced currents (GIC) overlarge geographical areas. He said NERC is currently evaluating 19 proposals for action to prepare forGICs and adopted a critical infrastructure action plan in late 2010 to cope with the GIC threat.NERCs information dissemination process starts when the NOAAs Space Weather PredictionCenter (SWPC) issues a warning of a major GMS. This information is then sent to power grid

operators and power generation stations. NERC also leads a task force of more than 80 organizationsto conduct advanced planning efforts for strong GMSs, including determination of the current state ofthe grid, planning models, validating vulnerability, and creating/maintaining a Spare EquipmentDatabase.

- Mr. Mitch Narins gave an overview of the National Airspace System (NAS), emphasizing the vitalrole that extremely reliable, precision navigation plays to ensuring safety of our Nations air traffic.He described the new L5 civil signal on GPS satellites to largely mitigate adverse impacts from the


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- Mr. Tim Deaver described a variety of effects if we were to lose satellite communicationscapabilities. These include routine impacts such as spacecraft anomalies, attitude disturbances, andtransponder shutoffs, which require satellite operators to be more vigilant and proactive. Satelliteanomaly trends can also drive manufacturing changes and higher production costs to add morecommunication redundancy, extra power, and/or fuel capacity. More significant anomalies havecaused serious mission impacts. In 1994, attitude failures on two spacecraft took several months tofully recover. The Galaxy 15 satellite temporarily failed during a GMS, adversely affecting theWAAS system. Mr. Deaver described compact space weather sensors on SES spacecraft that detectenvironmental conditions on the spacecraft for anomaly resolution. Data from these sensors can beshared with the space weather community. He urged that more should be done to sustain space

weather programs that provide critical information to space operators.

Comments, Questions and Answers

(Q): Dr. Thomas Mehlhorn (Naval Research Laboratory (NRL)): What is the basis for thevariability of the vulnerability of power transformers, and why are those at nuclear plantsmore susceptible to GICs?

(A): Mr. John Kappenman: In a typical GMS, there are numerous sub-storm events andtransformers could be hit multiple times. Transformers at nuclear plants are particularlyvulnerable since these transformers have large capacity with a lower electrical resistance.The lower resistance means that more GIC can flow through the transformer. A statistical

analysis shows that transformers at nuclear plants are about twice as vulnerable as othertransformers.

(Q): Dr. Ernie Hildner (retired from NOAA): Is LightSquared (an organization which operatesa mobile satellite system) a threat to GPS?

(A): Mr. Mitch Narins stated the the FAA and the Department of Defense (DOD) tested theability of the proposed LightSquared signal to interfere with the GPS-supported aviationnavigation system. They found that the proposed LightSquared signals could interferewith the air navigation systems.

(Q): Dr. Steve Tracton (Capital Weather Gang (CWG)): What satellites have been launchedthat are protected against space weather activity?

(A): Mr. Tim Deaver: Satellites are only protected to a certain level. Manufacturers have achoice of whats prudent and reasonable versus the cost of catastrophic loss. You have tochoose protection and redundancy. We create a system with redundancies to backupcritical operations. The March 1989 type of storm is used as a benchmark for planningand response.


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(Q): Dr. Madhulika Guhathakurta (NASA HQ): Do you have any ideas for hardening andresponse to the electric power grids vulnerability?

(A): Mr. John Kappenman: Improve situational awareness (maintaining space weather forecastsand observational assets that can give advanced warning of space weather events) and try tolook at operational procedures that could help reduce vulnerability. The alert NERC issuedin the spring should put more power providers on notice and help bring them up to the samelevel of knowledge and understanding.

(A): Mr. Eric Rollison: NERC released an advisory to industry that covered immediateoperational planning and operating and long-term planning recommendations. The NERCalert brings everyone up to speed with certain operators having more defined response plansthan others. Currently, agile operations are the only way to mitigate this threat.

(Q): Mr. Steve Tracton (CWG): Some companies have response plans. Can they put them intoeffect immediately? How much protection do they offer?

(A): Mr. John Kappenman: We dont know; it may be somewhat limited and superficial. Mostresponse plans are a reaction to the March 1989 event. I'm not aware of response plans forthe more severe storm events that we have simulated.

(A): Mr. Eric Rollison: NERCs multiple response plan is designed to be implemented in a shorttime, but we are not certain what that will buy us in terms of protection.

(Q): Dr. Jim Spann (NASA/Marshall Space Flight Center): Which geographic areas will receivewarnings about solar activity, one of the coverage maps presented seems to show that partof the U.S. is not covered. Is that the case?

(A): Mr. Eric Rollison: The Midwest region has a large operating footprint; they notify otheroperators in that area, which disseminates information to operators at lower levels.


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Session 3: Human Safety and Response Preparedness

Moderator: Mr. Jon Malay

Director, Civil Space and Environment Programs, Lockheed Martin;

President, American Meteorological Society (AMS)

Coordinator: Dr. Madhulika Guhathakurta, NASA HQ

Panelists:

Mr. Michael Stills, Manager, International Operations, United Flight Dispatch

Mr. Leviticus (L.A.) Lewis, Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) Representative,Department of Homeland Security (DHS) Space Team

Dr. John Allen, Program Executive for Crew Health and Safety, NASA Headquarters SpaceOperations Mission Directorate

Dr. Brenda Phillips, Professor, Center for the Study of Disasters and Extreme Events, Fire andEmergency Management Program, Department of Political Science, Oklahoma State University

- Mr. Jon Malay opened the session by stating he was honored to represent both the private sector andthe AMS. He believes that the space weather enterprise needs to be a team effort between the public,

private, and academic sectors. He was proud that the AMS has been a strong supporter of the SWEFsince its inception five years ago. Mr. Malay told the forum that space weather has become moreimportant within the AMS as evidenced by the new AMS Science Technical Committee for SpaceWeather and declared that AMS is your space weather society! He concluded by saying that spaceweather vulnerabilities were presented well in the previous two sessions and that this panel takes onprotection of life and limb and health and human safety issues related to hazardous events (radiationexposure or infrastructure breakdown effects).

- Mr. Michael Stills began his remarks with a review of the pertinent Federal Aviation Regulations(FARs) that drive airlines to seek and use space weather information for flight and crew safety. Themain area of concern is operations on polar routes that limit communications between the aircraft andcontrollers and entail increased radiation exposure. United Airlines (UA) relies on space weather

information from NOAA to plan aircraft routing to avoid hazards or alter flight plans in reaction tosudden space weather events. Alternate routing results in suboptimal performance and may make thecost of the flight not economically feasible. Over the past 10 years of operational experience, UA haslearned many lessons and has had to take actions to ensure safety of flight on several occasions.

- Mr. L.A. Lewis told the audience that FEMAs basic mission is to support citizens and firstresponders during disasters. This includes extreme space weather impacts, which he characterized asjust one more phenomenon under the all hazards management umbrella. FEMA responseprocedures follow the same general course of actions for all disasters. He stated that FEMA is payingclose attention to space weather and is not going to get caught by surprise. Mr. Lewis also pointed outthat space weather can directly or indirectly interfere with FEMA responses to other emergencies dueto its impact on power distribution, satellite services, communications, and navigation. FEMA Region

8 has been designated as the Center of Excellence for space weather events and exercises regularlywith NOAAs SWPC. Finally, Mr. Lewis emphasized that the key to successful disaster responsedepends on diverse communications methods, advanced planning, access to power, and strongadvocacy with the public.

- Dr. John Allen described two types of radiation risks to astronauts: short-term risks characterized byrelatively high levels of radiation caused by Solar Proton Events, in which exposure leads to celldepletion of sensitive tissues, and long-term risks related to cosmic rays, which increase theprobability of cancer and possible damage to the brain and reproductive organs. The basis for the


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- Dr. Brenda Phillips told the audience that the basis for effective public response to disasters includesthree steps: hazards identification, risk analysis, and preparedness. Space weather is still not on thepublic radar. She pointed out that some at-risk populations are truly dependent on power grid andcommunications systems for their lives. We must develop preparedness campaigns that communicateeffectively to the public. She stated that disasters are low priority, even in organizations and agencies;even businesses are focused on protecting computers and not people. Dr. Phillips explained thePreparedness Cycle, which begins with planning and organization and then moves through training,conducting exercises, evaluation, and finally, improvement. Whether people will respond depends on

many factors including social or geographic isolation, language, whether they understand or knowsomeone who understands space weather, recognition that the threat affects them personally, and thecost of preparedness and response. She emphasized that it is important to communicate to peoplethrough their social networks.


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(Q): Mr. Jon Malay asked each panelist the following question: If you could have one wish come

true, what would it be?(A): Dr. Brenda Phillips: User-friendly material and integrating that material into schools.(A): Mr. L. A. Lewis: Make sure we have adequate warnings. So we need to get a new spacecraft

up. We also need to get Congress involved so they understand.(A): Mr. Michael Stills: We need forecasts. Advanced notice is paramount.(A): Dr. John Allen concurred with the other panelists.

(Q): Dr. Steve Tracton (CWG): Why did United Airlines not monitor solar activity 10 years ago?(A): Mr. Michael Stills: United Airlines did not fly polar routes 10 years ago.

(Q): Dr. Steve Tracton (CWG): What is the time frame for getting to the point of an action plan torespond and recover during a disaster?

(A): Mr. L. A. Lewis: FEMA is developing a Federal operations plan with the express purpose offiguring out what resources should be brought to bear on all disasters. FEMA is planning to beprepared for multiple Katrinas. FEMA is trying to get Americans to switch their currentthinking so that the thinking embraces the fact that individuals are the first responders whomust take responsibility for themselves.

(Q): Dr. Gerald Dittberner (Harris Corporation): Whats the average dollar value of a 180-minutedelay or a stop in Anchorage?

(A): Mr. Michael Stills: I am not privy to a dollar amount, but its fairly expensive. Making thedecision to delay or reroute a flight is a procedural response and done without question tocost. Its a matter of safety.

(Q): The questioner was reacting to what seems to be the American character with respect todisasters. He believed that the Japanese culture is very much attuned to disasters and makesthe appropriate response, especially a response that involves helping others. A Japaneseacademic said that, from a very early age, they are trained with a collective way of thinking,calmness, value of the group. Is there something we should be doing about Americancharacter? Should we be doing something on a national level?

(A): Dr. Brenda Phillips: Anti-social behavior is not the norm. Pro-social behavior is the norm. Sothere is a lot of cooperation during a disaster in America. The people who help you most areyour family and neighbors.

(Q): Dr. Leslie Beil (LAB Creation): If we have the capability to shield aircraft, why dont we useit?

(A): Dr. John Allen: As far as aircraft capability, I would have to defer to the engineers. NASAprocedures are for protecting people.


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Session 4: Space Weather Warnings and Prediction Services

Moderator: Ms. Maria Pirone, Harris Corporation

Coordinator: Dr. Genene Fisher (National Weather Service)

Panelists:

Dr. Jack Hayes, Assistant Administrator for Weather Services and Director, National Weather

Service Colonel John Egentowich (PhD), Deputy Director of Weather, Headquarters, United States Air

Force

Dr. Michael Hesse, Chief, Space Weather Laboratory, NASA Goddard Space Flight Center

Dr. Richard Behnke, Head, Geospace Section, NSF

Dr. David Applegate, Associate Director for Natural Hazards, U.S. Geological Survey (USGS)

- Panel moderator Ms. Maria Pirone introduced the panelists and the session topic.

- Dr. Jack Hayes began his remarks by stating that the potential for major impacts on advancedtechnologies speaks to why we need a unified national space weather capability. We need to continueto optimize and coordinate U.S. space weather investment and extend these capabilities worldwide,

he said. The Unified National Space Weather Capability is a Federal interagency partnershipfacilitated by the OFCM to improve weather science and services for the 2013 solar maximum andbeyond and to optimize the capabilities we have now. OFCM, along with its National Space WeatherProgram partners, will facilitate the development of a national framework and develop an action plan.Dr. Hayes listed the near-term goals of the plan and the strategy for the long term.

- Colonel John Egentowich described Air Force space weather capabilities and initiatives. Heemphasized that teamwork was key to success in this mission area and highlighted Air Force Weather(AFW) partnerships with NOAA, NSF, and NASA. Colonel Egentowich told the forum that futurepriorities include improving AFWs ground-based space environment sensing capability over the next5 years and improving analysis and forecast capability. AFW has four initiatives to upgrade observingcapabilities and is pursuing spiral development of the Space Weather Analysis and Forecast System.

The Global Assimilation of Ionospheric Measurements (GAIM) model provides 24-hour forecasts ofionospheric conditions and a follow-on full -physics upgrade should be operational in 2012-2013.He concluded by saying that AFWs goal is to ensure exploitation of space weather expertise forspace situational awareness to meet special missions and operational needs.

- Dr. Michael Hesse told the audience that NASA plays a key role in all aspects of space weatherforecasting: knowledge (research), data/information, models, and dissemination. It provides unique

observations of the Sun with the Solar Terrestrial Relations Observatory(STEREO), SolarDynamics Observatory (SDO), and Solar and Heliospheric Observatory (SOHO) missions and criticalmeasurements from the ACE satellite for short-term (approximately 30 minutes) warnings of coronalmass ejections (CME) and impending GMSs. He explained that NASAs Space Weather Laboratory(SWL) provides a world-leading display, analysis, and dissemination system. The SWL disseminates

information to NASAs robotic missions and to the Johnson Space Center Space Radiation AnalysisGroup (SRAG) for human missions. Also developed at NASAs Goddard Space Flight Center is theSolar Shield project, which uses advanced models to predict hazardous GMS-induced currents in theNorth American power grid. Finally, he echoed the sentiment that partnerships across the Federalgovernment, industry, academia, and international communities are very important for advancingU.S. space weather capabilities.


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- Dr. Richard Behnke told the audience that NSFs role in space weather is to provide fundamentalresearch, modeling, ground-based facilities, education, and interagency partnership. He encouragedthe forum to think of the national space weather enterprise as a system of systems that engages theentire community by providing broad unifying goals. He pointed out that the NSF-funded Center forIntegrated Space-Weather Modeling (CISM) is transitioning the first large-scale, physics-based spaceweather model into operations at NOAAs SWPC. NSF will begin construction this summer of the

Advanced Technology Solar Telescope (ATST) which will allow observation of the Sun and itsmagnetic activities with high spectral, spatial, and temporal resolutions. Dr. Behnke emphasized thatNSF is actively engaged in the education of the next generation of space scientists through summerschool programs and supporting faculty development in space science. He summed up by saying NSFhas extensive international collaborations, interagency collaborations with the National SpaceWeather Program partners, and direct collaborations with NASA and DOD.

- Dr. David Applegate described USGS roles and responsibilities, which include providinggeomagnetic observatories in support of NOAA and AFW GMS forecasts. USGS has a new HazardsScience Strategy Planning Team (H-SSPT), which reports directly to the Director, USGS, on near andlonger term science goals, including geomagnetism. He told the audience that the USGSGeomagnetism Program monitors the Earth's magnetic field using 14 ground-based magnetic

observatories at a program cost of $2 million per year. USGS collaborates at the international levelthrough the INTERMAGNET Program, which consists of 104 observatories supported by 52institutes in 39 countries. Data from these sites could be made available for real-time operational useprovided sufficient communications and connectivity were established. He finished his remarkssaying that the role of USGS in the Unified National Space Weather Capability would be to providethe ground-based component of observations and tracking of magnetic storms, to work with NSWPpartners to deliver indices of storm intensity, and to promote global cooperation by building onexisting partnerships through INTERMAGNET and working with both economically developed andeconomically emergent countries.


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(Q): Dr. Devrie Intriligator (CRC Inc.) stated she was disappointed at whats happening withthe space weather program. Academia and the commercial sector are currently being leftout of the discussion. In fact, the academic and commercial sectors are advocating for acoordinator for the space weather program in the OSTP to decrease redundant efforts inthe Federal government. This program must be reorganized to get input in a timelymanner.

(A): Dr. Jack Hayes: We have just started down this coordination path, and we dont intend tobe exclusionary in any way. The first step is to get the Federal space weather communityworking effectively together. Ultimately, we must combine resources with the academicand commercial sectors in these tough economic times.

(Q): Ms. Maria Pirone: Might you include academia in this discussion when you develop thisaction plan (which was alluded to in this sessions presentations).

(A): Dr. Jack Hayes: We are open to those types of things.

(Q): Dr. Ming Ji (NWS/Ocean Prediction Center): Its logical that the World MeteorologicalOrganization (WMO) (1) focuses on space weather warning forecasts and (2) serves theneeds of other international agencies. Is there a consensus that WMO be the source forspace weather information?

(A): Dr. Jack Hayes: The WMO has a global observing system program, but there is not asimilar program at the WMO for space weather. The WMO has a challenge with 180organizations (member states). The big challenge is to convince developing states thatthere is a space weather threat and therefore a reason to take this issue on in tight budgettimes. So there is a risk with using the WMO as the source for space weather information.But, we must continue to partner with the international community.

(Q): Dr. Tom Mehlhorn (NRL): For those at DOD who are not involved in this UnifiedNational Space Weather Capability initiative, what is the best way to get integrated intothis initiative?

(A): Jack Hayes: We are open to an alliance. Sam Williamson (OFCM) said that, as a nextstep, we want to bring in policy-level folks: those who are able to make a decision. Dr.Fred Lewis represents DOD on the OFCM-sponsored National Space Weather ProgramCouncil, so OFCM is looking to Dr. Lewis to vet this issue within DOD. OFCMs Federalinfrastructure may not allow full membership of academia and industry, but the OFCMdoes allow these sectors to provide input to plans and to let these two sectors serve assubject matter experts. Its a question of how to take advantage of capabilities and to bringthose capabilities to bear. We are looking beyond solar max and looking in the future tobuild capabilities.

(Q): Dr. Bodo Reinisch (Lowell Digisonde International): The Digital Ionosphere SoundingSystem is the system being replaced by the Next Generation Ionosonde (NEXION)system. Why are you not switching over to a 5-minute reporting cadence so that the datacan be available and useful to the academic community?

(A): Col John Egentowich and Lt Col Kelly Doser (DOD): A 5-minute sequence is notrequired to support DOD operations; but we will take the question back to DOD.

(A): Dr. Jack Hayes added that this question is an example of how partnerships can be formedand how a little tweaking can benefit multiple parties.


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Session 5: Strategic Communications, Education, and Outreach

Moderator: Mr. David Jones, StormCenter Communications

Coordinator: Mr. Michael Bonadonna (OFCM)

Panelists: Ms. Victoria Jaggard,Space Editor, National Geographic News Online

Mr. Robert Irion, Director, Science Communication Program, University of California, SantaCruz

Lieutenant Lesley Lykins, Director, Emerging Media Integration, Department of the Navy,Office of Information

Dr. W. Jeffrey Hughes, Director, Center for Integrated Space Weather Modeling (CISM),Boston University

Mr. Clay Anderson, Senior Media Representative, Pepco Holdings, Inc.

- Ms. Victoria Jaggard stated that the National Geographic Societys mission is to inspire people tocare about the planet. An important part of that goal is to help readers understand the ways spacephenomena can influence the Earth. The National Geographic News Online service has over 3.5million readers each month and has an extensive following on Facebook (6.3 million), Twitter (720

thousand), and Breaking Orbittheir dedicated space blog. She went on to say that the NationalGeographic Society provides extensive daily coverage of space weather. Aurora Sky shows have over821,000 hits and the number of international readers is rapidly increasing. Ms. Jaggard also stated thatscientists need to be sensitive to requests from journalists. We need to convey what we are doingabout the potential threats/impacts of space weather. The National Geographic Society wants toprovide a full, well-rounded picture.

- Mr. Robert Irion told the audience that stories about the Sun have a built-in public audienceits theonly sensory astronomical body. Space weather is a natural, compelling detective story. We areunraveling complex, mysterious events while preparing for possible calamity. He then told the forumabout his published articles on space weather in the Smithsonianmagazine in December 2010 andApril 2011 as offering informed science for science phobic readers. He said good stories have vivid

characters like Karel Schrijver (Lockheed Martin Solar and Astrophysics Laboratory) and PhilipScheerer (Sanford University). He then urged the scientists in the audience to be available toreporters; share your stories, your frustrations, your revelations; convey why this research matters toyou, and why it should matter to the reader; and always keep your audience in mind. In closing, Mr.Irion noted that space weather gets a lot of media coverage and that we need to ensure the coverageeffectively informs and educates the public.

- Lieutenant Lykins presentation focused principally on social media, noting that over 50 percent ofAmericans are on Facebook. She said that, although Google is the #1 trafficked site on the internet,people spend much more time on Facebook. Lt. Lykins emphasized that social media allows the userto manage the influx of information and that organizational control of communications is an illusion.She noted that the Navy has found social media to be an effective communications medium. Todays

communications landscape demands dialog. Content must reach people on a human level or offersomething cool to fans that they can pass along to friends. She advised the forum that there are risksand considerations for participating in social media; however, education and training are the keys tominimizing these risks.

- Dr. W. Jeffrey Hughes stated that space physics education is almost exclusively at the graduate level;very few undergraduates get any exposure. Only about a dozen universities have space physicsprograms, and the graduate programs educating the next generation of research specialists are oftenvery specialized. Dr. Hughes framed the issue by asking where non-researchers can get a broad


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- Mr. Clay Anderson stated that Pepcos biggest need is for advanced warnings for all hazards.

Protection of the electric grid is a homeland security issue, and high voltage transmission lines areparticularly vulnerable. Pepco is looking at renewable energy options to provide system backup in theevent of blackouts. He emphasized that communication and education are big issues, and much needsto be done to improve both areas.


(C): Mr. Alan Roth (Advanced Fusion Systems LLC) commented that, to address the entireissue of impacts on the electric grid, we need to consider both nuclear and non-nuclear

electromagnetic pulse (EMP).

(C): Mr. Jonathan Malay (Lockheed Martin Corp., President, AMS) commented that, withregard to space weather publications and articles, we need to answer the questions: Whoare we reaching? and Who are we missing/need to reach?

(Q): Dr. Steve Tracton (CWG): What role does station management play in the material that ispresented by the broadcast meteorologists?

(A): Mr. David Jones: In general, station management supports the efforts of their broadcastmeteorologists to educate the public on issues like space weather as long as they have theknowledge and content to back it up and make top quality presentations.

(Q): Dr. Thomas Mehlhorn (NRL): How do journalists validate information?(A): Mr. Robert Irion: Journalists gain credibility by producing reliable, well-written articles

that cite reliable, authoritative references.(A): Lt. Lykins: Regarding social media, we need to get involved, participate, and correct

misinformation that finds its way to social media.(A): Ms. Jaggard: National Geographic has a long-standing reputation for producing reliable

information.

(Q): Dr. Bodo Reinisch (Lowell Digisonde International): How can AMS help change theattitude of the academic community regarding the atmospheric science communitys needto understand space weather? It was noted that space physics/weather is only pursued atthe graduate level.

(A): Dr. Louis Uccellini noted that Millersville University has an undergraduate program inspace weather.

(A): Mr. Jon Malay: As current AMS President, Ill work with Dr. Uccellini, the next AMSpresident, to continue increasing the attention that space weather gets within the AMS.

Session 6: Forum Warp-up and Summary of Key Points


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Note: Speaker and a dience remarks are paraphrased and not erbatim q otes

Dr. Paul Try

Senior Vice President and Program Manager, Science and Technology Corporation


- Dr. Try recapped the Space Weather Enterprise Forum and highlighted the following key take-awaypoints:

We are Vulnerable in Several Areaso Vulnerability may be increasing

Potential for Extreme Societal Impacto Risk of 130 million without power (NAS Study)

Threat Not Well Recognizedo Greater outreach/education needed

Improved Prediction Neededo Global impactsglobal capabilitieso Interagency/international collaboration needed

Time is Right for the Unified National Space Weather Capabilityo OFCM to facilitate agency efforts

Dr. Try stated that space weather could have significant societal impacts like other extreme events;i.e., the Asian tsunami, Hurricane Katrina, and the Fukushima nuclear disaster. He posed the question,What if the May 1921 solar superstorm occurred today? and showed a U.S. map of vulnerabletransformers with areas of probable system collapse encircled that could cause 130 million people togo without power. (Reference: National Academy of Sciences report, Severe Space Weather EventsUnderstanding Societal and Economic Impacts). He concluded with the ominous question, Will thisbe the next extreme event?

- Mr. Samuel Williamson then closed the forum by thanking all the speakers, guests, and staff. He saidhe was very pleased with the outcome of the SWEF and looked forward to continuing the effort tocoordinate our national effort to improve space weather services.

SWEF_2011_SummaryReport

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