SW Seasonal Outlook 2013 02-11-13

7/29/2019 SW Seasonal Outlook 2013 02-11-13

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2013 Fire Season Considerationsand Outlook

SWCC Predictive Services

February 11, 2013


2/14

Seasonal Fire Potential Main Factors

1. Drought

2. Fine Fuels Condition

3. Seasonal Temperature & Precipitation

4. Spring & early Summer Weather Patterns

5. Monsoon


3/14

Fire Season 2013: Drought

Severe+ long term drought ongoing

across much of the region

Drought less severe over AZ highcountry & also southwest TX

Drought outlook calls for drought topersist through the spring

At this point, long term droughtimpacts are a given in our outlookmethodology

Best we can hope for is temporarymitigation of drought impacts withany wetter periods

Increased volatility during fire

season


4/14

Fire Season 2013: Fine Fuels Overall drought means not a lot of excessive, continuous fine fuels in

general.

Wetter monsoon in 2012 west of the divide leading to more normal+ finefuels there, though some compaction along the Mogollon Rim. Similarsituation for southwest TX.

Fine fuels below average across the eastern plains/rangelands.

We expect the fine fuels factor to become highly dynamic this spring!

Area of some fine fuelscompaction by snowfall

General area where fine fuelsavailability is seen as nearnormal or slightly above


5/14

Fire Season 2013: DEC-JAN 2012Temperature & Precipitation

Cold>near normal temps, wetter west &drier east (except SW TX)

Little impact on drought or fine fuelsgrowth

Main impact some fine fuels compaction inmountain areas

Snowpack generally below average

TEMP

PRECIP


6/14

Fire Season 2013: FEBTemperature & Precipitation

Outlook

Influenced by La Nada (ENSO neutralsignal) west coast upper ridge/Greatlakes upper trough pattern expectedto be persistent

Series of slow moving, dynamicsystems expected to impact theregion

Overall dry signal, with fluctuating

temperatures possibly averagingslightly below normal

Potentially slightly warmer across theeast, probably due to downslope

wind signal

TEMP

PRECIP


7/14

Fire Season 2013: MAR-MAYTemperature & Precipitation

Outlook

Slight pattern shift leading to potentialhigher variability/lower confidenceoutlook compared to FEB

Overall dry, with tendency for coolnesswest and warmth east

Variable pattern could bring significantmoisture into both NW and SE portion ofthe area, with sustained dryness mostlikely in between

Potential for strong western U.S. troughto be persistent. This would pointtowards consistently cool across the westand intermittently breezy/windy with

downslope winds across the east.

TEMP

PRECIP


8/14

Fire Season 2013: Spring & Early SummerWeather Pattern Jet Stream

Split flow jet stream suggested, with storm systems tending to pass north of the regionor slow and drop southward towards the Baja.

If this pattern takes shape, periodic breezy/windy periods would occur but periods ofmore moist & cool conditions could occur across both the northwest and southeastportions of the region. Still overall dry.

L

H

L

LH

L


9/14

Fire Season 2013: Spring & Early SummerWeather Pattern

Trend towards higher variability/lower confidence pattern through thespring into early summer, based on variance of potential west coast trough.

Two most likely solutions offer widely different impacts

Northern Track: Drier, cooler overallwarm/dry east with downslope winds.

Southern Track: More moist overalldistinctly cooler NW half of area

NORTHERN TRACK SOUTHERN TRACK

L

HL

H

L

L

= Windy/Dry Tendency = Moisture Transport Tendency


10/14

Fire Season 2013: Monsoon

Very low confidence this far in advance and considering lack ofEl Nio or La Nia (a.k.a. La Nada) as influencing factor

Some generalities regarding the monsoon:

The hotter the spring is and the earlier winds diminish, the earlier and

potentially more robust the monsoon onset tends to be

Cooler, more active and potentially wet spring periods tend to delay or diminishthe monsoon

This Year: The sooner we lose the influence of SouthernTrack systems in the spring, the earlier/better the potentialmonsoon outcome

Note: Much of the eastern half of the area has seen two

straight poor/dry monsoon seasons


11/14

2013 Fire Season Factors Summary

1. Drought Severe and ongoing. Increased volatility overall, with generally

decreased potential in fine fuel regimes and increased volatility & potentialin higher terrain/heavier fuels.

2. Fine Fuels Condition Normal+ west of the divide and southwest TX, withsome areas of compaction in the mountains. Below normal elsewhere.

3. Seasonal Temperature & Precipitation La Nada influenced trend foroverall dry conditions with mixed/fluctuating temperature signal. Greatervariability/uncertainty in the spring with some moisture possible into thenorthwest and southeast portions of the region.

4. Spring & early Summer Weather Pattern Mean western trough with

varying northern and southern stream storm tracks offering almostopposing impacts. Potential for a few game changing wet springstorms. Overall, no widespread areas likely to see consistently good orbad conditions for too long.

5. Monsoon La Nada offers minimal insight at this juncture.


12/14

2013 Fire Season Potential Summary

Tough to summarize with no large areas of obvious focus at

this time. Less fine fuels across the eastern plains/rangelands means generally

lower potential there.

Drought will promote never before seen fire behavior and rapid drying

responses in heavier fuel after any precipitationcausing generallyincreased fire potential over the higher terrain area-wide.

A fire potential graphic and more detail and certainty expectedwith subsequent monthly updates

Wi d /D T d


13/14

Current

area offocus

NORTHERN TRACK

L

H

L

= Windy/Dry Tendency

SOUTHERN TRACK

LH

L= Moisture Transport Tendency


14/14

ENDSWCC Predictive Services

Contact: Chuck Maxwell, Predictive Services Meteorologist

[email protected], 505-842-3419
mailto:[email protected]:[email protected]

SW Seasonal Outlook 2013 02-11-13

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