Sustainable Tourism Planning for Lofoten

27 February 2019 Ben Martin Principal, HKS Advisory

Sustainable Tourism Planning for Lofoten

Introduction

Sustainable tourism development requires planning and control.

March 11, 2019

Who is the Planning Authority for the South Pole?

Itinerary: South Pole ExplorerDeparting: 29 Dec 2019Duration: 6 nightsPrice: $60,000 (per person)Activity Level: ModerateProvider: Antarctic Logistics & Expeditions LLC

Introduction

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• Tourism’s Unique Characteristics?

• Tourism Will Increase

• Pros & Cons of Tourism Growth

• How Destinations Evolve Over Time?

• How to Manage Demand Growth?

• What is “Carrying Capacity”

• Sustainability Matters

• Tactical Initiatives for Lofoten

• Closing Remarks

On 19 May 2012234 climbers made an Everest summitattempt.

Jan 2019:China restricts Everest climbers from thenorth by one-third, as part of clean-upinitiative.

Without planning and control we destroy the thing that we love.

Introduction

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Ben Martin, PrincipalHKS Advisory

• Degree in Recreation & Tourism Management

• Masters in Tourism Management

• Joined ERA in 1995

• ERA joined AECOM in 2009

• AECOM to HKS in 2018

• 23 years in Tourism Consultancy

Tourism’s Unique Characteristics

Tourism development impacts the whole community.

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A hugely complex organism…..

Employing 1 in 10 Globally

Involving a multiple stakeholders:

• Tourists• Host Population• Tourism Enterprises (locally)• Tour Operators (internationally)• Public Sector & Government

Tourism Will Increase

Do you want to encourage and/or control increased tourism visitation to Lofoten?

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• International tourism is booming

• Strongest growth from Asia

• More visitors will come to Lofoten

• Are we prepared for them?

1950 2018 Total Increase CAGR

Global Population 2,256,000,000 7,700,000,000 201% 1.6%

Global Tourism 25,000,000 1,400,000,000 5,500% 6.1%

Pros & Cons of Tourism Growth

The positive impacts are proven, but we must be conscious of the challenges that come with tourism growth.

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The Pros The Cons

Economic Diversification Sensitive Economic Sector

Direct Foreign Investment Pressure on Infrastructure

High Yielding Investment Seasonality of Demand

Job Creation Character of Employment

Safeguarding Assets Pressure on Assets

Promote Understanding Degradation of Community

Build Local/National Pride Threats to Local Culture

Destinations Evolve Over Time

Lofoten is on the ‘international tourism radar’. Word of mouth will help to drive increased demand.

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Source: Butler, R.W. (1980)

Where is Lofoten today?

A developing destination needsto plan for maturity and stagnation.

What is the ‘CAPACITY’ of yourcore ‘elements’

• Natural Environment

• Accommodation Stock

• Community

• Infrastructure

Carrying Capacity & Sustainability

Pressure will be felt most ‘keenly’ at peak months of the year (these are the ‘pinch points’).

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Sustainable Destination

Tourism Carrying Capacity is:The maximum number of peoplethat may visit a tourist destinationat the same time, withoutcausing destruction ofthe physical, economicand social environmentand an unacceptabledecrease in thequality of visitors’satisfaction.

World Tourism Organisation


How ‘crowded’ would you like Lofoten to become? What is the visitor management plan for the peak weeks?

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Different markets have different definitions for‘over crowded’


It is possible to be ‘scientific’ about Capacity Management.

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Source: Manning, R. 2001

There is level of demand beyond which the ‘authenticity’ and quality of the tourism offer become degraded.

You risk destroying the Asset & Appeal

Social Sustainability

Your acceptance of tourism inflows is inevitably associated with the nature of your employment.

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Are you missing out on the biggest asset

a destination has to offer – Local People

Tourists want to feel welcome.

“Turismen skal være til berikelse for befolkningen, og ikke en belastning.” Strategiplan Lofoten Som Reisemål 2017 - 2022

Environmental Sustainability

Tourists are generally more ‘aware’ of ‘Ecotourism Principles’ but often need encouragement.

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“The ability of the

environment to continue to function properly indefinitely.”

“Living off nature’s Income

rather than its Capital.”

Economic Sustainability

This can be a real challenge in destinations where tourists are much wealthier than local residents.

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The level of economic change that is sustainable, where the destination is able to accommodate

tourist functions without the loss of local activities, facilities and services for local people.

House Price Inflation Over Time

Ho

use

Pri

ces

Meaningful Retail Accessible Dining

Managing Growth: Spreading Demand

Real imagination and creativity is required to really drive increases in low-season and shoulder-season demand.

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0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

Nordland Sardinia Iceland

Manage the Peaks

Build the Shoulders

Seasonality is dictated by climate, the social scheduling of our society, accessibility or simply habit

Build capacity, manage the peaks and build up the troughs:

• Festivals and events

• MICE tourism

• Adventure tourism

• Domestic tourism

Managing Growth: Mix Up Your Markets

Tourism Demand comprises a myriad of niche markets each with its own desires and requirements.

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• Different Seasonal Peaks

• Spreads Demand Risk

• Resident Demand Underpins Tourism

• Consider Compatibility of Guests

Managing Growth: Control Access

Controlling access may feel like a last resort, but it can strengthen ‘desirability’ (increasing perceived value).

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Advanced Purchase or Lottery for Access Permits

Requires Enforcement

Managing Growth: Expand Capacity

Planning control can play a vital role in ensure that expansions in ‘supply’ align with you Strategic Vision.

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The Exceptional Is Achievable in Sensitive Environments (no need to compromise standards)

Managing Growth: Value Scarcity

Price is already a determining factor for foreign nationals considering a holiday in Norway.

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Do you measuregrowth in terms ofvolume or value?

Which slice of themarket pyramid willyou target?

Managing Growth: People Matter

“People” have to be at the heart of all strategic tourism planning considerations. They’re at the heart of it all.

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The Biggest Challenge for a Strengthening Market

• This is a People Business

• As the sector grows how will you staff your businesses?

• Find staff / train staff / retain staff......

• The challenge of seasonality

Managing Growth: Focus & Dispersal

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Gateway Hub (airport, station, road junction) – tourists enter system here

“Must See” Primary Asset – tourist will want to see this (respond to this)

Secondary Asset – tourists may not even know about this

Sensitive Area – keep tourist impact to a minimum

Primary Tourist Route

Secondary Tourist Routes (different lengths for different markets)

In the Planned Approach, you influence:• Where tourists travel to• What they travel in• Where they stop and/or stay• What they do

Focus tourism activity in gateway locations and places designed to cope with demand.

Disperse tourists within a region so that all can share the economic and employment benefits and you lessen the impact on any one specific location

‘En fremtidig forvaltning av Lofoten må også ivareta steder som ikke defineres som turiststeder.’ (Strategiplan Lofoten Som Reisemål 2017 – 2022)

Use the geography of the destination as a central pillar to the strategy for management growth.

Managing Growth: Focus & Dispersal

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Mapping the investment priorities, zones for protection and infrastructure corridors provides focus.

Managing Growth: Scenic Routes

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Golden Triangle (Major Attractions)

• Route between major sites of Delhi, Agra, Jaipur – features several UNESCO World Heritage Sites

• Full circuit is over 700km

• Domestic tourism extremely important (e.g. TajMahal receives around 2.5 million visitors per year, of which 200,000 international)

Focus on the Journey or the Destinations?

Ring of Kerry (Coastal Scenery)

• 170 km circular route, typically starting and finishing in Killarney

• Spectacular coastal views

• Approx 2 million tourist visitors to SW Ireland (Co Cork and Kerry)Focus on the

Journey

Focus on theDestinations

“Signage is Power” – GPS may challenge this to some degree, but people love to be lead.

Managing Growth: Public Sector Toolkit

There is much that the Public Sector can do, but some measures may require Central Government support.

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The Tool Kit

Tax Incentives

Tax Deterrents

Gifting Land

Infrastructure Investments

Regional Masterplanning

Policy Planning

Grants & Subsidies

Education & Training

Destination Marketing

Lobbying Government

Public Services

Security

Managing Growth: Destination Marketing

TripAdvisor (et al) my be growing in influence, but this is still your ‘Shop Window’ to the world.

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• Every business stands or falls

on the reputation of the destination

• Understand the hierarchy of brand

awareness

• Need to develop Lofoten’s

international brand position

• Interaction with the Ministry of Tourism

• Collaboration with Private Sector

• Who do you want to attract?

• What messages will appeal to

these markets?

• Evolve a coordinated

Marketing Strategy

Managing Growth: Access, Access, Access

Ultimately, this is where you control ‘visitor flows’ – public/private collaboration starts here.

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The Cannula for Tourism(also known as)....

• Airport• Landing Strip• Road• Bridge• Railway• Boat Transfer• Cruise Terminal• Hiking/Biking • Train

What Next for Lofoten: Be Strategic & Save Money

Is there consensus about where Lofoten wants to go over the next decade?

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Where Are We Now?(Audit and Assessment)

Where Are Going?(Vision)

How Are We Going to Get There?(Strategic Planning)

Failing to Plan is Planning to Fail

‘Vekst represen-terer muligheter, men forutsetter en overordnet strategi for å unngå negative effekter.’ (Strategiplan Lofoten Som Reisemål 2017 – 2022)

What Next for Lofoten: Refine the Plan?

It may be time to push strategic tourism planning further up the political and social agenda.

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Is there a requirement to establish or refine the Tourism Framework Plan for Lofoten?

• Agree Vision – What do we want to be?

• Where are We Today?• Understand Market• Review Assets• Engage with Stakeholders

• Where Are We Going?• Consider Options• Understand Realistic Market Opportunity• Evolve Proposed Plan• Engage with Stakeholders• Agree Plan & Direction

• Establish Action Plan• Engage with Stakeholders• Implement Plan in Logical Phases

This is anIterative Process

(markets change, keep plan “alive)

What Next for Lofoten: What Assets and Where?

Use the local geography to your advantage and take control of the flows (properly fund this effort).

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1. Define your assetsi. Attractionsii. Activitiesiii. Accommodationiv. Support Facilitiesv. Preservation Zones

2. Location of your assets

3. Consider Carrying Capacity

4. Plan Your Visitor Flow

We only stop where we can park!

What Next for Lofoten: Collaboration is Key

Steering Committees, Advisory Boards, Stakeholder & Focus Groups will all have a role to play.

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The winning crew works together in harmony….Successful Tourism Development Requires Public / Private Collaboration

(Recognise that the Private Sector will be Better at Some Things)

Public Sector Private Sector

Highways

Golf Courses

AirportsSignage

Marinas

Residential

Hotels

DestinationMarketing

Emergency Services

National Parks

Ports

Waterparks

Communication

Collaboration

Consensus Me

asu

rem

en

t

Action

Closing Remarks: Principles for A Successful Destination

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• People Matter

• Value Scarcity

• Mix Your Markets

• Collaboration is Key

• Access, Access, Access

• Tourism is a Growth Sector

• Don’t Wait – Others are Moving Forward

• Planning = Better for Tourists/Locals/Environment

• Be Proactive not Reactive (be strategic & save money)

• Above All - Safeguard the Future of the Assets Themselves

Travel Is The OnlyThing You Buy

That Makes You Richer(Lofoten Has So Much to Offer)

Lofoten er en av Norges spydspisser innenfor reiseliv.....(Strategiplan Lofoten Som Reisemål 2017 – 2022)

27 February 2019 Ben Martin Principal, HKS Advisory

Sustainable Tourism Planning for Lofoten

Questions & Answers

Sustainable Tourism Planning for Lofoten

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