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Sustainable Infrastructure Jeanne Huang Ph.D, P. Eng
School of Civil Engineering Tianjin University
Recent Climate Change Research inTianjin and its Implication for
Tianjin University
1 、 Introduction and Urban Flooding
2 、 Research on Urban Precipitation
3 、 Sustainable Infrastructure
4 、 Conclusions
Introduction andUrban Flooding
1
Tianjin University
IntroductionFlooding death toll in China ( 1950-2010 )
5000
10000
15000
20000
45000
40000
35000
30000
25000
8571
4091 5181
The 1931 big floods in the Yangtze & Huai River basins, 51 million people affected and 400,000 died4349 3909
42,447 people died during the big flood of 1954F
lood
dea
th t
oll
1950
1952
1954
1956
1958
1960
1962
1964
1966
1968
1970
1972
1974
1976
1978
1980
1982
1984
1986
1988
1990
1992
1994
1996
1998
2000
2002
2004
2006
2008
2010
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
Year
Dir
ect
eco
no
mic
loss
es
(bill
ion
RM
B
0
0.5
1
1.5
2
2.5
3
3.5
4
4.5
Re
lativ
e lo
sse
s (%
)
Flood economic losses in China(1990-2010 )
2.39 0.64
5Data Source: Bulletin of Flood and Drought Disasters in China (2010)
• In 2010, only 35.3% of the flood losses came from the damages of agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and
• Especially, more than 250 cities at or above the countylevel were inundated in 2010, and most of them werecaused by the local rainstorms.
fishery. The other nearly 2/3 of the total losses was composed of the damages of industry, traffic and transportation, and the damages of infrastructures.
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
7000
8000
Year
Death toll caused by flood related hazards in China (1980-2010)
43493909
1454
42254150
The dead and missing in Zhouqu debris flow event: 1765=1510+255
Dead: 3222Missing: 1003Total: 4225
6Data Source: Bulletin of Flood and Drought Disasters in China (2010)
deat
h to
ll
1980
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
Death toll caused by flash flood, landslideand debris flow in China (1991-2010)
5000
4500
4000
3500
3000
2500
2000
1500
1000
500
0
Year
1.00
0.90
0.80
0.70
0.60
0.50
0.40
0.30
0.20
0.10
0.00
dead
r a t e
Dead: 2824 (not including missing)
7Data Source: Bulletin of Flood and Drought Disasters in China (2010)
Zhouqu: 1765
199
11
992
199
31
994
199
51
996
199
71
998
199
92
000
200
12
002
200
32
004
200
52
006
200
7
200
82
009
201
0
deat
h to
ll
Causing Analysis (1)• Climate fluctuation
Annual average precipitation in China from 2000 to 2010Data Source: China Water Resources Bulletin (2000 - 2010), MWR.
8
Causing Analysis (2)• Rapid economic development• Rapid growth of Population• Rapid changes of Land use due to urbanization and
infrastructures construction
0
5000
10000
45000
40000
35000
30000
25000
20000
15000
1960
1963
1966
1969
1972
1975
1978
1981
1984
1987
1990
1993
1996
1999
2002
2005
2008
Year
GD
P
an
d F
ina
nci
al
Re
ven
ue
(B
illio
n R
MB
)
GDP
Financial Revenue
Common features of urbanization
• Urbanization rate rising from 20% to 40%, the UK spent 120 years, France 100 years, Germany 80 years, the USA 40 years, while China took only 22 years.
• During such rapid process, underground infrastructures as drainage system were always being ignored. The governors of cities have to pay more attention to some critical issues such as housing, traffic jam, power supply, water supply, and so on, taking the so called policy “on the ground priority”.
10
Year 1952 1970 1980 1990 2000 2003 2008
Urban population( million )
39 93 191 302 461 520 607
percentage( % )
8.30 11.2 19.39 26.41 36.09 40.5 45.7
A series of large cities suffered by severe flood in recent years: Nanjing, Beijing, Shanghai, Wuhan, Gangzhou, Fuzhou,Shenzhen, Xian, Hangzhou, Jinan,Zhenzhou, Chongqing, Chengdu…
Urban Floods Damages Increasedin China
Flash flood occurred in Jinan in July 18, 2007
Intra-urban flooding occurred in Beijing in July 10, 2004Fluvial flooding,
Wuzhou, Guangxi, June 22, 2005
Guangzhou, May 7,2010
Wuhan June 182011
On July 21, 2012, Beijing was struck byheavy rainstorm again.
The day is as dark as the night. Severe traffic jams occurred, and large number of people plugging on the way.
Max. rainfall: 460mm ; and 128.9mm/hr Ave. rainfall: 63 mm;
句學
How the challenges can be addressed
Developing stage
• Rapid process of urbanization• Weak flood control and drainage system• The gap between rich and poor• Increasing uncertainties in global warming• ……
How to keep or rehabilitatethe existed balance?
How to cope with the challenges coming in the future?
High level of management, with strong economic and technical capacities
Sustainable development stage
How to enhance or create new balance step by step to meet the demands of rapid and smooth development?
? ?
C D
Where can we find some other weights?
scale
How to restore the balance?
How to meet the basic needs of survival? Lower demands in security
Flood control system developed in a whacky circleLower technical ability Low level of urbanization
Undeveloped stage
Coping Strategies (1)
2000
2003
2006
2007
• The investment has been increased several fold in enhancingflood control system by comprehensive measures.• Formed a new thinking to promote a harmonious
relationship between man and nature in water governance for the sustainable development since.
• To promote the “two shifts” in flood control and drought relief affairs, i.e. shifting “from flood control to flood Management” and “from simplex drought-fighting to comprehensive drought management”.
• A series of measures have been taken to enhance theemergency response system and capacity building.
• Taking the people's livelihood related water issues as a moreprominent and top-priority tasks.
15
1998
Coping Strategies (2)
• In 2009, 200 million Yuan RMB was invested in the development of non-structural measures for early warning of flash floods in 103 pilot counties, which increased to 500 in 2010. The number is expected to increase up to 1,836 in 3 years.
• In the beginning of 2011, the No 1 Document issued by the Central Government aimed to accelerate the reform and development of water governance.
16
Coping Strategies (3)• The input for water security and sustainable
utilization will be multiplied by the governments at all levels, i.e. to invest 400 billion Yuan RMB on average per year in the 12th and 13th Five-year Plans (2011-2020).
• The National Master Plan for the Integrated Management of Medium and Small Rivers, the Reinforcement for Unsafe Reservoirs, and Prevention and Comprehensive Treatment of Flash Flood and Mountain Disasters have been discussed and approved by the State Council in early April 2011.
City
Tianjin University
Recent ClimateResearch for Tianjin
City
2
Tianjin
Tianjin is a dual-core city, with its main urban area (including the old city) located along the Hai River, which connects to the Yellow and Yangtze Rivers via the Grand Canal.
Trend in Average Temperature (The City of Tianjin)
Month S VAR Z ConfidenceLevel
Trend
Jan 260 18924.67 1.88 0.9699 Significant Increase
Feb 344 18946.33 2.49 0.9636 Significant Increase
Mar 484 18948 3.51 0.9998 Significant Increase
Apr 584 18930 4.24 1.0000 Significant Increase
May 331 18915.67 2.40 0.9918 Significant Increase
Jun 359 18934 2.60 0.9953 Significant Increase
Jul 194 18882.33 1.40 0.9192 Slight Increase
Aug 149 18911 1.08 0.8599 Slight Increase
Sep 119 18842.67 0.86 0.8051 No
Oct 127 18915.33 0.92 0.8212 No
Nov 54 18931.67 0.39 0.6517 No
Dec 189 18920.67 1.37 0.9147 Slight Increase
Trend in Average Precipitation(The City of Tianjin)
Month Z β Trend
January -0.8983 -0.005 No
February -0.8883 -0.012 No
March -0.6508 -0.021 No
April -0.1656 -0.014 No
May 1.4490 0.301 No
June 1.4632 0.589 No
July -2.0779 -1.331 Significant Decrease
August -2.1344 -1.316 Significant Decrease
September 0.0071 0.002 No
October 0.3871 0.047 No
November -0.4667 -0.030 No
December -0.3137 0.000 No
Trend Analysis for Annual and Seasonal Precipitation Change
Z=1.96 ->confidence level = 95%
Annual
and
Season
Years Z β Trend
Annual 56 -1.2368 -1.620 No
Spring 56 1.1097 0.332 No
Summer 56 -2.0425 -1.657 Significant Decrease
Fall 56 0.3887 -1.477 No
Winter 56 -1.4773 -0.009 No
Seasonal Variation
1960 1970 1980
年份1990 2000
-4
-2
0
2
4
统计量
UF 统计量
k
UB 统计量k0.05 显著水平
1960 1970 1980
年份1990 2000
-4
-2
0
2
4
统计量
UF 统计量k
UB 统计量k
0.05 显著水平
1960 1970 1980
年份1990 2000
-4
-2
0
2
4
统计量
UF 统计量
k
UB 统计量
k
0.05 显著水平
1960 1970 1980
年份1990 2000
-4
-2
0
2
4
统计量
UF 统计量k
UB 统计量k
0.05 显著水平
Spring Summer
Fall Winter
1960 1970 20001980
年份1990
-4
-2
0
2
4
统计量
UF 统计量k
UB 统计量k
0.05 显著水平
1960 1970 1980
年份1990 2000
-4
-2
0
2
4
统计量
UF 统计量
kUB 统计量
k
0.05 显著水平
July August
IDF fitting Methods1
2
3
Rainfall Distribution Study
Area Reduction Factor Study
Design Storm Study
Gumbel
Exponentialdist r ibut ion
General Extreme Value
Pearson I I I
IDF Curve Development
0 5 0 1 0 0 1 5 0 2 0 0
2 . 0
1 . 5
1 . 0
0 . 5
0 . 0
2 . 5
3 . 0旧 2 旧 3 新 2 新 3
Comparing 2 y and 3y return period IDF Curves
Comparison of IDF CurvesIn
tens
ity (m
m/m
in)
Duration (Min)
Comparing 2 y and 3y return period IDF Curves for 6 hrs Rain Event
Comparison of IDF Curves
Return Period Total Depth (mm)
2 3 5 10 20 30 50 100
New 79.5 326.5 106.0 127.4 148.7 161.1 176.5 198.8
Old 53.6 59.7 67.4 77.8 88.2 94.3 102.0 112.5
Huff Rainfall Distribution
Storm 2
雨峰雨峰
雨峰
降雨强度
降雨持续时间
雨峰
D1
D2
D3
Storm 1
Minimum Time : 12hrs
Threshold :20mm
Rainfall Event Separation
0 20 40 60
时间累积百分比80 100
0.0
0.8
时段雨量占总雨量的比例
概率水平 10%
0 2040 60
时间累积百分比
80 100
0.0
0.4
时段雨量占总雨量的比例
概率水平50%
0 20 40 60
时间累积百分比80 100
0.0
0 .2
Lest Critical
0.4
时段雨量占总雨量的
比例
Most Critical
Secondary
概率水平 90%
0.4
Rainfall Distribution for Different Time Periods
0 10 20 30
降雨历时 (min)
40 50 600
20
40
60
80
100
降雨量累积百分比
10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%
0 30 60 90
降雨历时 (min)
120 150 1800
20
40
60
80
100
降雨量累积百分比
10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%
0 60 120 180
240
降雨历时(min)
300 360
0
20
40
60
80
100
降雨量累积百分比
10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%
0 120 240 360480
降雨历时 (min)
600 720
0
20
40
60
80
100
降雨量累积百分比
10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%
1hr
3hr
6hr
12hr
July 21, 2012 Storm in Tianjin (observed)
Citywide Average
Downtown Core
Comparison of Design Storm Distribution with July 21, 2012 Storm (Downtown)
10%50%
90%
Comparison of Design Storm Distribution with July 21, 2012 Storm (Citywide)
10%50%
54 Year Samples for Design Storm
30 Year Samples for Design Storm
Area Reduction Study
4 years data in minute from 28 digital rain gauges for 250 km2
Thiessen Method
0 50 100
区域面积150 200
0.0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1.0
点面折减系数
1hr 3hr 6hr 12hr 24hr
Reduction Rate for City ofTianjin
For shorter period rainfall, the reduction rate drop more steeply
SustainableInfrastructure
3
Tianjin University
Urban Development and Its Changes to the Natural
Water Balance
A Guide Book for BC Stormwater Planning
Change in Hydrology
Rural/Undeveloped
Single Family Residential (large lots)
Single Family Residential (small lots) Mixed Land Use-High
Density
Nature Condition Slight Impact Signification Impact Major Impact
Decreasing Base flows
Increasing Peak flows
Increasing channel Erosions
Rural/Undeveloped
Single Family Residential (large lots)
Single Family Residential (small lots) Mixed Land Use-High
Density
Decreasing Base flows
Increasing Peak flows Increasing
channel Erosions
Increasing Temperature
Natural Condition
Slight Impact Signification Impact
constructed cross-section
Major Impact
Guiding Principles: ADAPT
ADAPT
T
A
P
A
Design for the complete spectrum of rainfall event
Agree that storm water is a resource
Act on a priority basis in at-risk drainage catchments
Test solutions and reduces costs by adaptive management
Plan at four scales– regional,watershed, neighborhood and site
D
Low Impact Development低影响开发
1. Mimic Original Eco system in terms of hydrological aspects2. Decentralized Control Strategy3. Use source control in stead of End Control
Summary of LID Principles
Stormwater:
•Slow it down
•Spread it out
•Soak it in
1. 2007 Dry Year2. Total Precipitation: 634 mm
1. No Surface Runoff up to approx 25 mm2. Removing most contaminants found in parking lot
Conclusions3
Tianjin University
Conclusions
1
2
3
In Urban Area, rainfall is localized, it makes the
flooding issue more severe and give more
pressure for infrastructure
Precipitation is one of very important driven
forces for the change of eco system
Integrated Water Resources Management/LID
might be the solution to restore the original
hydrologic cycle and relief part of the pressure
to our infrastructure
The End