SUSTAINABLE FOOD FUTURES...Arbusto de alta proteína Pastura mejorada El aumento de la...
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www.wri.org/wrr/ March, 2013 Photo: Espen Faugstad SUSTAINABLE FOOD FUTURES LOS FUTUROS ALIMENTARIOS SOSTENIBLES A Menu of Solutions to Feed More than 9 Billion People by 2050 Un menú de soluciones para alimentar más de 9 mil millones de personas para el año 2050 Collaborators: Princeton University, INRA, CIRAD Institutional collaborators: UNDP, UNEP, World Bank Tim Searchinger, Princeton University, Technica
Transcript of SUSTAINABLE FOOD FUTURES...Arbusto de alta proteína Pastura mejorada El aumento de la...
www.wri.org/wrr/ March, 2013
Photo: Espen Faugstad
SUSTAINABLE FOOD FUTURES LOS FUTUROS ALIMENTARIOS SOSTENIBLES
A Menu of Solutions to Feed More than 9 Billion People by 2050 Un menú de soluciones para alimentar más de 9 mil millones de personas para el año 2050
Collaborators: Princeton University, INRA, CIRAD Institutional collaborators: UNDP, UNEP, World Bank
Tim Searchinger, Princeton University, Technica
Agricultural Land is Half of all the World’s Ice- and Desert-Free Land La tierra agrícola es la mitad de todo el terrestre no cubierta por el hielo ni desierto del mundo
Source: Ramankutty et al. 2008. Global Biochemical Cycles; Foley et al. 2005. Science
Figure 5. Cerrar la brecha con un menú para un futuro sostenible de alimentos
ILLUSTRATIVE
Disponibilidad de alimentos
(2006)
BAU Disponibilidad de alimentos
necesario (2050)
Disponibilidad anual mundial de Kcal Kcal (trillion)
9,500
15,500
Note: Food or kcal “availability” = food or kcal produced Source: WRI analysis based on FAO 2009 and 2012
El desafío Rendimiento El crecimiento de las calorías de los cultivos 2006-50 será igual a la de 1962 a 2006 (FAO) La FAO estima rendimiento crecerá en promedio igual a la tasa lineal antes Para evitar la expansión neta de tierras de cultivo, los rendimientos deben crecer en el 132% de las tasas históricas Pero: menos posibilidades de expandir el riego fertilizantes, semillas científicos ya generalizadas más la producción de alimentos a partir de las de bajo rendimiento
28 percent of global crop energy in 2010 would be needed to produce 10 percent of transportation fuel in 2050 Percent
Source: Heimlich, R. and T. Searchinger. Forthcoming. Calculating Crop Demands for Liquid Biofuels. Washington, DC: World Resources Institute.
Presenter
Presentation Notes
Another demand pressure is the growing competition for land. There is a finite amount of land which is facing a growing demand from non-food-production uses. Land formerly used for food crops is being diverted for other uses including biofuel production and urbanization. And while more natural ecosystems could be converted into food production, doing so could have negative effects on conservation, climate, and water. Note: 100 mHa = Egypt (100.2 mHa) 250 mHa = 250 mHa is slightly larger than Algeria (238.1 mHa) or smaller than Kazakhstan (272.5 mHa)
Utilizando toda la biomasa cosechada en el mundo de la energía proporcionaría sólo 20% de las necesidades energéticas futuras del mundo Exajoules por año
Total energía mundial de los cultivos,
residuos de cosecha, rozó la biomasa, y se
cosecha la madera (2000)
Proyectado uso mundial de energía primaria
(2050)
225
900
Source: Heimlich, R. and T. Searchinger. 2013. (forthcoming). Calculating Crop Demands for Liquid Biofuels. Washington, DC: World Resources Institute.
20%
Neta energía mundial de todos los cultivos, residuos de cosecha
rozaron la biomasa, y se cosecha la madera
(2000)
180
Presenter
Presentation Notes
Another demand pressure is the growing competition for land. There is a finite amount of land which is facing a growing demand from non-food-production uses. Land formerly used for food crops is being diverted for other uses including biofuel production and urbanization. And while more natural ecosystems could be converted into food production, doing so could have negative effects on conservation, climate, and water. Note: 100 mHa = Egypt (100.2 mHa) 250 mHa = 250 mHa is slightly larger than Algeria (238.1 mHa) or smaller than Kazakhstan (272.5 mHa)
Harvested area for 15 major crops has expanded by almost 100 million hectares in the last ten years Million hectares
Source: WRI analysis based on FAO. 2012. “FAOSTAT.” Rome: FAO.
Crop residues
Grass y otros tipos de forraje proporcionan la mayoría del alimentación animal del mundo
Note: Soybean and other oil meals are included in “Food industry by-products” while whole soybeans are included in “Soybeans, starchy roots and other edible crops”. Source: Wirsenius, S., et al. How much land is needed for global food production under scenarios of dietary changes and livestock productivity increases in 2030? Agr. Syst. (2010).
Cultivos comestibles e.g. Soja, raíces amiláceas
Tierras de cultivo pastos
Subproductos de la industria de la alimentación y residuos de alimentos
Non-ag herbage & browse
Cultivos de cereales
Cultivos forrajeros (hay & silage)
Residuos de cultivos
Pastos permanentes y browse Column1
Porciento: 100% = 6705 millones de toneladas de materia seca por año (2010)
Ruminants
Non-ruminants
Expansión pastizal en los ecosistemas naturales en Province du Nord, Rwanda
Photo: AdamCohn
Expansión pastizal en bosques en Choco, Colombia
Presenter
Presentation Notes
Questions addressed in each of these subsequent installments include: Summary (1 page) What is the problem to be addressed? (2-3 pages) Brief synthesis of the best research already out there Clear problem diagnosis accompanied by a “killer chart” What is the aspired wedge? (2 pages) What is it? (e.g., “halve the rate of food waste across the supply chain globally by 2050 . . . from 30% to 15%”) How big is the opportunity? (give a number or range in terms of calories, nutrition, people fed, or other metric . . . this gets media coverage and decision-maker attention) Where might the wedge be most applicable? (e.g., map showing degraded land restoration globally, map showing yield gap reduction opportunities, diagram quantifying waste reduction opportunities per step in food supply chain) What are the 3-5 most promising, practical, pro-poor, environmentally sound, and scalable strategies for achieving this wedge, and what does it take to implement them? (12 - 24 pages, 3-4 pages per strategy, ½ - 1 page per case study) Dive into the 3-5 most important strategies for achieving this wedge (for some, there might be 3-5 for OECD and a separate list for LDC). Of course there may be more strategies, but one of the value added benefits of the WRR is to highlight the ones with the biggest bang and those that can be implemented now. Structure could be: Strategy 1 What is it? Who needs to do what? Why do it? (i.e., what are all the benefits of it . . . not just environmental) Why isn’t it already being done (what are the obstacles)? How can these obstacles be overcome? Case example showing real world implementation of the strategy and its results Strategy 2 Same as above Strategy 3 Same as above Gender and social benefits (1 page box) Concluding thoughts (½ page) Who should be picking up this wedge or set of strategies Broader implications of this wedge
World Resources Institute
550 million hectares In South America (2007) 27% of area
http://sedac.ciesin.columbia.edu/data/set/aglands-pastures-2000/maps
Los pastizales de América del Sur
Slide Courtesy of J. Chara, CIPAV
World Resources Institute
3,050,000
3,100,000
3,150,000
3,200,000
3,250,000
3,300,000
3,350,000
3,400,000
3,450,000
1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020
Area
, 100
0 H
a Prados y pastos permanentes, Mundo
Permanent meadows and pastures
World Resources Institute
Aumento de calorías de origen animal 2006-2050 es 130% de aumento 1962-2006
Aumento de carne de res
Aumento de productos lácteos
Aumento de alimentación basado en el cultivo
FAO 81% 71% 0%
Source: WRI analysis of FAO 2012 data.
Proyeciones de consumo de productos ganaderos (FAO)
Todos (kcal/person/day) Carne
(kcal/person/day) Region 2006 2050 % change 2006 2050 % change Canada & USA 907 887 -2% 117 95 -19%
European Union 864 925 7% 80 75 -6%
Brazil 606 803 33% 151 173 15%
Former Soviet Union 601 768 28% 118 156 32%
China 561 820 46% 41 89 116%
Other OECD 529 674 27% 64 84 31%
Latin America (ex Brazil) 475 628 32% 96 116 21%
Middle East & North Africa 303 416 37% 59 86 45%
Asia (ex. China, India) 233 400 72% 24 43 79%
India 184 357 94% 8 19 138%
Sub-Saharan Africa 144 185 29% 41 51 26%
World 413 506 23% 50 65 30%
Las actividades relacionadas con la agricultura son ~ 24% de las emisiones globales de gases de efecto invernadero (2010)
Note: Figures may not equal 100% due to rounding. Gigatonne = 1 x 109 Source: Climate Analysis Indicators Tool (CAIT). 2012. World Resources Institute.
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Total de emisiones no agricolas
La producción agrícola (e.g., fertilizantes, arroz,
ganado, energía)
Silvicultura y cambios de usos de
tierra incluso turberas drenadas
Procesos industriales Residuos
70
11
4 2
Porciento, 100% = 50 gigatonnes CO2e por año
Sources: WRI analysis based on IEA 2012, EIA 2012, EPA 2012, Houghton 2008, and OECD 2012.
Figure 25. “Lo Mismo de Siempre” (BAU) Emisiones de agricultura se componerían >70% de los emisiones que son admisibles para tener un “2°C mundo”
Gt CO2e por año
12 15
36
70
2010 2050(Lo mismo de siempre)
2050(2°C Objetivo)
Non-Ag Emisiones
Emisiones de agricultura y de cambios de usos de tierra
>70%
48
85
21
Source: GLEAM in Gerber, P. J., H. Steinfeld, B. Henderson, A. Mottet, C. Opio, J. Dijkman, A. Falcucci, and G. Tempio. 2013. Tackling climate change through livestock: A global assessment of emissions and mitigation opportunities. Rome: FAO.
Beef production generates 6 times more greenhouse gas emissions per unit of protein than pork, chicken, and egg production Kilograms of CO2e per kilogram of protein
Figure 24. Las emisiones globales de gases de efecto invernadero procedentes de la producción agrícola
Sources: WRI analysis based on EPA 2012 and FAO 2012. with adjustments
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12 20
17
10
7
Ruminant Enteric Fermentation
Manure management
Porciento 100% = 6.5 Gt CO2e en 2010
Fermentación entérica rumiantes
Residuos de rumiantes en las pasturas
Fertilización del suelo
Energía
Arroz
•18 Herrero et al., PNAS (2013)
•19
Emisiones comparativos de las vacas lecheras Gerber et al., FAO (2010)
Africa: 7.5 kg de gases de efecto invernadero por kilogramo de leche
U.S.: 1.3 kg de gases por kilogramo de leche
Mejoras accesibles - las emisiones por unidad de leche cortada por ½ a 2/3. Arbusto de alta proteína Pastura mejorada El aumento de la digestibilidad de stover Source: Thornton & Herrero 2010 PNAS
8. Aumentar la productividad de los pastos y la ganadería
Hedenus et al, Climactic Change (2014)
Both Greater Efficiency and Some Technological Innovations Needed
Information Needs to Intensify Sustainably
• Real and more detailed knowledge about production systems and extent by sub-national region
• Consistently organized global data on real farms, typical farms and studies
• Real understanding of biophysical and socio-economic constraints to improement
• Strategies to improve • System for tracking progress & sharing
experiences
Contents of Sustainable Intensification Livestock Tool
• Intensity levels of production systems by country sub-region
• Production • Land use • Greenhouse gas emissions per kilogram of meat
and milk • Biophysical and socioeocnomic opportunities
and constraints • Intensification scenarios
