Sustainable Energy Vision 2030 - 2040 · Vision for Denmark (OVE) 2030 Strong growth in windpower,...
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Scenario « 100% Renewables in EU » Transition till 2030 - 2040 in the EU - countries - The INFORSE Vision Gunnar Boye Olesen, International Network for Sustainable Energy INFORSE-Europe Presentation, 2. December, 2010 European Parliament, Brussels
Transcript of Sustainable Energy Vision 2030 - 2040 · Vision for Denmark (OVE) 2030 Strong growth in windpower,...
Scenario « 100% Renewables in EU »
Transition till 2030 - 2040 in the EU - countries
- The INFORSE Vision
Gunnar Boye Olesen, International Network for Sustainable Energy
INFORSE-Europe
Presentation, 2. December, 2010 European Parliament, Brussels
•European network of 80 NGOs working for renewable energy and energy efficiency
Active on EU policies, sustainable energy, visions/ scenarios, sustainable energy education, etc
Work on global climate and energy issues with INFORSE members in other continents, e.g. climate negotiations
Supported by EU DG Environment, members and others
See www.inforse.org/europe
The INFORSE Vision
• Phase out fossil fuel and nuclear power• Provide everybody with basic energy needs, also
the 1 billion that lack basic clean energy for cooking and light today
INFORSE Sustainable Energy Visions Global Vision
Vision for EU-27 Bulgaria Denmark Hungary Latvia
Lithuania Romania Slovakia
UK Zero Carbon Britain Belarus Russia
Ukraine
We need to limit global climate change to 2'C (or better 1.5'C)
Only than can we avoid catastrophes for nature and humanity
In spite of recent press there has been very broad scientific consensus on this for several years
It is expressed in the IPCC 4th Assessment report (2007) and stronger emphasized in later studies
EU's Challenges in a Global Development Rights Framework
http://www.ecoequity.org
The Global Vision – Enough Renewables for 9 billion people if we
use it efficiently
Prof. Bent Sørensen, 100% Renewable Energy Scenario, Low Energy Consumption Scen. 1999
EU-27 Sustainable Energy Vision - Above 98% reduction by 2040, - Fast application of known solutions to 2020 and 2030 - Sustainability issues addressed (biomass, biofuels) - No net import or export over longer periods
2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 20400
500
1.000
1.500
2.000
2.500
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5.000
EU-27 CO2 emissions, INFORSE Vision 2040
m ill. tons /year
Emission Reductions Close to Global Development Right Scenario (different scales and basis, comparison not precise)
EU-27 Sustainable Energy Vision
Demand side: Modest increase in energy services (sufficiency/sust.) Less road transport in EU-15 (sufficiency,
environm.) Large increases in energy efficiency: Transition to electric and hydrogen transport, ~95%
Energy Service Developments
0 0 0 0 0 00
50
100
150
200
250
EU-10 Activity - Relative to 2000
RailwaysElec.domesticDom.space heatingIndustry Pers.carsRoad freight
2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 20500
50
100
150
200
250
300
EU-15 Activity - Relative to 2000
RailwaysElec.domesticSpace heatingIndustry Pers.carsRoad freight
Energy Efficiency Increases ►Ecodesign, EU will drive efficiency of many products
until 2020, and with updates also later, energy efficiency factor 2.5 to 2040
►Factor 4 energy efficiency for personal cars until 2040 ►Factor 3 energy efficiency for industry until 2040 ►Factor 2 en. eff.for space heating, until 2040 (2%/year) ►40% en. eff. for railways, agriculture, road freight
2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 20500
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Specific energy consumption - relative to 2000
Space heatingElec.domesticIndustry Pers.carsRai lwaysRoad freight
How the energy efficiency looks like(examples)
EU-27 Sustainable Energy Vision
Supply side: Efficient energy supply with combined heat and
power(CHP), smarter and more efficient grids Rapid development of renewable energy Phase out of nuclear until 2025 (end of lifetime), no
CCS No major imports or exports to/from EU, but
electricity exchange with e.g. Norway Core gas network for storage, supplied with biogas
EU-27 Sustainable Energy Vision
Renewable Energy - 460,000 MW windpower, installation rate 10%higher
from 2010, 30% higher from 2020 - Solar PV and solar heating as EREC “Rethinking2050” - Biomass total 8600 PJ, identified sustainable level
(EREC ~14000 PJ) - Biofuel as today (year 2010) - Geothermal 1200 PJ, not much hot dry rock (¼ of
EREC's potential for 2050)
Renewable Energy Supply - EU27
2.000 2 .005 2 .010 2.015 2 .020 2.020 2 .030 2 .030 2 .0400
5.000
10.000
15.000
20.000
25.000
30.000
Renewable Energy in EU27, INFORSE Vision
Sola r PVSola r hea tW indpow erGeotherma lB iogasB io- f ue l, liqu idEnergy Fores tB iomas sHy dro
PJ/ye
ar
2.000 2.005 2.010 2.015 2.020 2.025 2.030 2.035 2.040,000
2.000
4.000
6.000
8.000
10.000
12.000
14.000
Electricity divided in sources in EU27, INFORSE Vision
NuclearFoss ilsSolar PVWindBiomassHydro
P J /ye a r
EU-27 Sustainable Energy Vision
2 .0 0 0 2 .0 0 5 2 .0 1 0 2 . 0 1 5 2 .0 2 0 2 .0 2 5 2 . 0 3 0 2 . 0 3 5 2 .0 4 00
1 0 .0 0 0
2 0 .0 0 0
3 0 .0 0 0
4 0 .0 0 0
5 0 .0 0 0
6 0 .0 0 0
7 0 .0 0 0
8 0 .0 0 0
9 0 .0 0 0
E U P r im a r y E n e r g y , IN F O R S E V is io n 2 0 4 0
N u c le a rC o a l a n d W a s teO ilN a tu r a l g a sW in d , s u n , g e o e tc .B io m a s s
PJ/ye
ra
25%
Will the EU Biomass Use be Sustainable?
* EU-15 figures up-scaled with 20% to EU-27** DK figures up-scaled with population ratio to EU-27
WhitePaper'10*INFORSE
INFORSE-DK**EEA2020*
EREC2050FoE/SEI-mitigation'50
0
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4000
6000
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12000
14000
16000
EU-27 Biomass potential/use (PJ)
Solid energy cropsBiofuels/cropsBiogasStrawOld timber/wasteIndustrial wood residuesWood/biomass
Vision for Denmark (OVE) 2030 Strong growth in windpower, sust. biomass Reduce specific building consumption 39% to '30 Reduce specific electricity use, industry 42% to '30 Flexible energy: district heating, heat pumps, electric cars and hydrogen Sustainable transport system, 80% more efficientNo new internationalpower lines
DK System in balance in 2030 Hourly balances made with Energy Plan programme ~1% unused windpower Existing import/ export lines
RES12 = WindRE34 = wave+PVCHP incl. geothermal
Danish Sustainable Energy Vision
Danish Sustainable Energy Vision
10000 11000 12000 13000 14000 15000 160000
50
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300
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7 Scenarios for 100% Renewables in 2030
Am bie nt he a tBiom a ss W indpow e rW a ve sS ola rG e othe rm a l
M W Windpowe r
Ener
gy s
uppl
y, PJ
/year
Ambient heat: heat collected by heat pumps
CostsCosts calculated based on Danish national price forecasts,
standard and high fossil fuel prices,Price for entire Danish energy supply system in 2030*
Vision Basis Basis,high-fossil-prices
0
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Costs in 2030, DK Energy Vision and basis, 3% interest
Efficiency In-vestments & in-terestExternal el.tradeInvestment&interestsO&MFuel
Billi
on D
KK/ye
ar
Vision Basis Basis,high-fossil-prices
0
10
20
3040
50
60
70
8090
100
Costs in 2030, DK Energy Vision and basis, 6% interest
Efficiency Investments & interestExternal el.tradeInvestment&interestsO&MFuel
Billi
on D
KK/ye
ar
Danish Sustainable Energy Vision
*Excluding CO2 costs, external trade is only electricity exchange with zero net annual import
Thank you
See www.inforse.org/europe
Proceedings: http://www.inforse.org/europe/tour_2010.htm http://www.inforse.org/europe/VisionEU27.htm
