Sustainable Energy: The Solar Strategyesc.fsu.edu/documents/lectures/fall2006/EML4450L4.pdf1850 1900...

Sustainable Energy Science and Engineering Center

Sustainable Energy:

The Solar Strategy


Energy and Power

Energy (in joules) = Force (in newtons) x Distance (in meters)

Power (in watt) = Rate at which energy is converted from one form to the other ( in joules per second)

Example: 100 watt light bulb is converting 100 joules of energy into light each second

Power used in a given period is generally used as a measure of energy - kWh

1 kWh = 1000 x 3600 = 3.6 x 106 Joules (i.e. 3.6 MJ)

1 Million tonnes of oil equivalent (Mtoe) = 41.9 x 1015 Joules (i.e. 41.9 PJ)

kWh= kW x capacity factor x 365 x 24 - Annual conversion

Exa - 1018; Peta - 1015; Tera - 1012; Giga - 109; Mega - 106

1 TW = 31.54 EJ/year

Useful conversion tables at: http://cdiac.ornl.gov/pns/convert.html


Taxonomy of Sustainable Development Goals

Adapted from National Research Council, 1999


Primary Energy Consumption per Capita

Electricity

Heat

Transport

One Tone of Oil Equivalent = 11,639 kWh


Source: World Energy Council, Cleaner Fossil Fuels Systems Committee

Population Without Electricity


Global Electricity Production

16 TWh


Growth in Electricity Demand

2001 2010 2015 2020 20250

2,000

4,000

6,000

8,000

10,000

12,000B

illio

n Ki

low

att h

ours

Industrialized EE/FSU Developing

History Projections

Total:~ 14 TWh 24 TWh

Typical home electricity use in USA = 9000 kWh/year


US Energy Need

Source: Transforming the electricity infrastructure by Gellings & Yeager, Physics Today, December 2004.


Average Customer Load in kWh/year

State Residential Commercial: small/medium

Commercial: Large

Florida 13,806 81,344 817,951

California 6,528 64,240 520,152

Michigan 7,788 74,756 2,480,151

Minnesota 9,333 85,583 3,963,724

New York 6,532 65,638 2,472,830


Per Capita Energy Use


Per Capita Electricity Consumption

Potential energy savings

Source: Daniel Kammen, UC Berkeley, ER 100 Lecture 1, Fall 2005


Florida Energy Use

Source: Florida’s Energy Future, DEP, January, 2004


Florida Electricity Generation


Wood=1.25 Wood=1.25

Coal =1.08

Oil =0.84

Gas =0.64

Carbon Intensity of

1850 1900 1950 2000

1.2

1.0

0.8

0.6

1.1

0.7

0.9

0.5

tc/t

oetones of carbon / tones

of oil equivalent

Carbon Intensity


Global emissions are 16 gC/MJ and global use is 420 EJ 7 GT (C)


Energy Intensity: quantity of energy required per unit output (e.g. GDP)

Energy Efficiency: a given level of service is provided with reduced amounts of energy

Efficiency improvements in processes and equipment can contribute to decreases in energy intensity.

Energy Intensity & Efficiency


This chart shows the energy required to generate $1000 of GDP.

A downward slope with time reflects increasing energy efficiency.

As this chart illustrates, there are still significant opportunities for efficiency gains in developing nations.

But OECD nations are also expected to be increasingly efficient due to the introduction and use of new technologies in a wide variety of applications including personal transportation.

Energy Intensity

Source: exxonmobil.com/corporate/citizenship


US Efficiency Improvement

Since 1990, savings > $170 billion annually



World Sources and Uses Of Energy

Electricity Liquid FuelsSpace Heating


Energy Market Share

World use: 10 TW (US: 3 TW) -2004

World use: 30 TW -2050 (projected ?)


Changing Energy Mix

1 EJ= 278 TWh


coal

Global Energy Systems Transition


Sustainable Energy Source:

One that is not substantially depleted by continuous use

Does not entail significant pollutant emissions or other environmental problems

Does not involve the perpetuation of substantial health hazards or social injustices

Only a few energy sources come close to this ideal

Renewable Energy Sources:

Generally more sustainable than fossil or nuclear fuels

Essentially inexhaustible

Their use entails lower emissions of greenhouse gases or other pollutants

Fewer health hazards

Sustainable Energy Source

Principal source of renewable energy is solar radiation


Electricity supply, wo

0

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

1990

1995

2000

2005

2010

2015

2020

2025

2030

2035

2040

2045

2050

TWh/

y

NuclearFossil totHydroSolarWindb

Sustainable Energy Vision

Source: Sustainable energy vision 2050, Gunnar Boye Olesen, INFORSE-Europe coordinator, Gl. Kirkevej 56, DK

8530 Hjortshoej, Denmark, email [email protected]. Rio 2002


Origin of Renewable Energy FlowsSolar radiation (incoming short

wavelength):

5.44 x 106 EJ/year

Short wavelength radiation direct reflection to space: ~ 30%

Energy cycle without anthropogenic interference. The energy flows are in TW

1 TW = 31.54 EJ/yearSource: Renewable energy, Brent Sorensen,

Elsevier, 2004, p123

Closed cycle


Direction conversion to heat in air, earth and oceans: 2.55 x 106 EJ/year

Biomass energy: 4.3 x 103 EJ/year

Wind, waves convection and currents: 11.7 x 103 EJ/year

Convection in volcanoes and hot springs: 9.36 EJ/year

Ocean tides: 93.6 EJ/year

0.7

We should pay attention to those areas of energy cycle which have not yet been utilized for which energy conversion methods have been in place.

~ 4.7 x 10-5 of the solar radiation

Maximum relative change during the past 500K years has been 10-3

Possible Sources of Energy Conversion

12

in TW

0.7

air

water

soil


Solar Electricity

Solar-thermally generated electricity:

Complex collectors to gather solar radiation to produce temperatures high enough to drive steam turbines to produce electric power. For example, a turbine fed from parabolic trough collectors might take steam at 750 K and eject heat into atmosphere at 300 K will have a ideal thermal (Carnot) efficiency of about 60%. Realistic overall conversion (system) efficiency of about 35% is feasible.

Solar Photovoltaic energy:

The direct conversion of sun’s rays to electricity.The efficiency (the ratio of the maximum power output and the incident radiation flux) of the best single-junction silicon solar cells has now reached 24% in laboratory test conditions. The best silicon commercially available PV modules have an efficiency of over 17%.


Solar-thermal Power Systems

In 1914, Frank Shuman of Philadelphia was planning to build 50,000 km2 of collectors in Sahara dissert. With present technology, such a plant can generate 2500 GW of electricity.


CSP Costs

Source: Dr. Franz Trieb, German Aerospace Center (DLR)


CSP Potential

Source: Dr. Franz Trieb, German Aerospace Center (DLR)


PV Costs

Photoelectrochemistry, an area of confluence between solar cell technology and battery or fuel cell technology, is playing role in the development of organic solar cells.

First generation (I): Crystalline PV

Second generation (II): Thin Film PV

Third generation (III): Based on nanotechnology using collections of atoms of semiconducting material. Films containing nanocrystalline structures and nanostructured conducting polymers are designed to absorb much of the solar spectrum. This technology will lead to PV cells made from thinly stacked plastic sheets converting solar energy to electricity with very high efficiency and at very low cost.


Solar Cell Power Conversion η


1980 1990 2000 2010 2020

100

80

60

40

20

Levelized cents/kWh in constant $20001C

OE

cen

ts/k

Wh

Photovoltaics

*


Source: Volker Quascning, DLR & Manuel Blanco Muriel, CIEMAT, Spain

PV-CSP Power Ranges


PV Module Production Experience (or PV Module Production Experience (or ““LearningLearning””) ) CurveCurve

Source: Dr. Thomas Surek, NREL

0.1

1.0

10.0

100.0

0 1 10 100 1,000 10,000 100,000 1,000,000

Cumulative Production (MWp)

PV M

odul

e Pr

ice

(200

3$/W

p)

1976

2003

90%

80%

70%

Based on discovery and Based on discovery and progress in new technologiesprogress in new technologies

2013* 2023*

* Future-year markers are basedon 25% annual growth rates

(expect >>25% in this scenario)

Based on successful progress Based on successful progress in thin films in thin films


Source: Photovoltaics Guide book for Decision makers by Bubenzer and Luther; Springer, 2003

Renewable Electricity Generation


6 Boxes at 3.3 TW Each = 20 TW

Solar Cell Land Area Required

Source: Smalley, 2003


Average Retail Price of Electricity to Residential customers (¢/kWh).

Region October 2005 October 2004

New England 13.31 11.95

Mid AtlanticNew York

12.4815.48

11.8614.6

South AtlanticFlorida*

8.859.58

8.369.02

Pacific ContiguousCalifornia

10.0611.93

10.3712.56

Hawaii 20.21 18.13

US Total 9.41 9.01

*In 2006, the rate in Florida will be increased to about 10.861 (¢/kWh)


Source: Exxon Mobil, 2002 and modified by AK

Electricity Production Cost

Residential consumer cost of electricity in 2005

*

* Integrated gasification Combined Cycle (IGCC) with Capture and Sequestration


Daily Average Output for Plat Plate Collectors with Fixed Tilt Angle Chosen for Maximum Annual Output


The solar technology is still in its infancy, comparable with the automobile of 1920’s.

The future solar cells will be made of flexible materials capable of converting the entire solar radiation spectrum into electricity.

Cost reductions will result in massive use of solar electricity in a not too distant future.

Recent News: Nanosolar to Build 430MW Solar Cell Factory; World's Largest Solar-Cell Factory; Building a Billion-Dollar Fab for Less in the Silicon Valley, CA.

Summary

Source: Smalley, 2003

eml4450L4 missing.pdfEML4450L4.pdf

Sustainable Energy: The Solar Strategyesc.fsu.edu/documents/lectures/fall2006/EML4450L4.pdf1850 1900...

Documents

Transcript of Sustainable Energy: The Solar Strategyesc.fsu.edu/documents/lectures/fall2006/EML4450L4.pdf1850 1900...