Sustainable Econmy

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    The Concept of the Sustainable Economy and the Promise of Japan's TransformationAuthor(s): Niccolo CaldararoSource: Anthropological Quarterly, Vol. 76, No. 3 (Summer, 2003), pp. 463-478Published by: The George Washington University Institute for Ethnographic ResearchStable URL: http://www.jstor.org/stable/3318185 .

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    SOCIALTHOUGHT& COMMENTARYT h e C o n c e p t o f t h e SustainableEconomy a n d t h e P r o m i s e o fJ a p a n ' s TransformationNiccolo CaldararoSan Francisco tateUniversity

    n recentyearsthe conceptof a sustainableeconomy has become a populartheme. LesterBrown's1981 book,Building SustainableSociety, alled for a

    sustainablesocietybased on conservationand populationstability.While nthepresenteconomicsituationthis mayseem absurdto some, the presentdilem-ma is actuallyan appropriatecontext in whichto discussthe concept. Humanenvironmental xploitationhasconsiderableeffects on the ecologyof the plan-et, thus the idea of sustainable human economies is appealingto manyenvi-ronmentalists.Some economists (e.g., Kennedy,1993) have been skepticalofsustainabilitycenarios,butcurrent rendsina few localesindicatepotentialav-enues to sustainable economic adaptations.Paradigmsof economic develop-ment lined to socio-culturalorientation and religious perspectivehave beenused recently to explain social phenomenon like "fundamentalism"(seeArmstrong,000).Thebasicconceptinthisargument s thata "conservativepir-it" nfuses nationshistoricallyMuslimwhich has impeded economic progress.Reference o Japan nthis contextshould shed lighton this argument.The presentinterestin sustainabilitymayseem strangeto appliedanthro-pologistswho questionedthe developmentmodelsof the post-W.W.IIeriod,es-peciallythat of W.W.Rostow(1960).The debate at that time centeredon the

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    idea of underdevelopment as an index of cultural"vigor,"with sustainableeconomies classifiedas "traditionalist."hisattitudewasexpressedbySchaedel(1964) nthe contextof the periodas, "Thedegreeof utilization hat a givenso-ciety makes of its naturalresources,given a certain basic technology,is pre-sumablyan indexof culturalvigor, ngenuity,efficiency,or whateverconceptone cares to employ."CarlSauerproposedthe idea that human society canachievea positivelevel of economicadaptationwhich he calledecologicalcli-max(1941).SirJosephHutchinsonadvancedthis idea and describedhowsucha societycouldmaintain tsvigorandstability, pposingstill current heoriesbyeconomiststhat stablesocieties mustdegrade(1966).Inthe 1970sa numberofgeographers ndecologistsdefinedinopposition o this idea,one of a preferredgoal of a "climax conomy",one in whicha societyhad become adaptedto itsenvironmentat a level below itscarrying apacityand recognizinghe benefitsof diversity n animal and plantpopulationsand the value of wilderness(e.g.,Fisherand Sargent,1974).Little onsideration,however,was madeto studies ofcomplexitywhich demonstrated hatwith increasing omplexityand densityofpopulation ocietiesundergodecliningmarginalproductivityeven factoring orinnovation),decliningmarginalreturnson investment,and increasedcostlinessperunit of energyextraction Tainter, 988).

    Consumptionby humans,and the socialconsequencesof consumersocie-ty, were noted by John MaynardKeynesin his EconomicPossibilitiesor ourGrandchildren,rittenin 1930. Keynes uggestedpotentialadaptations o eco-nomicstructureof societieswhichmightlead to a worldof slow or zerogrowthbut maintainpostindustrialifestyles nd health. Failuresn plannedeconomiesand the disparitybetween richand poor in even some of the most developedWesterneconomies have made Keynesianideas seem idealistic to most.However, ome trendsexisttoday which may provethat sustainablemoderneconomies are possible.Bogin (2001)reviewedthe evolution of humanpopu-lation and itsgrowthand showedthat popularnotionsof a demographic ran-sition are based on incomplete data on European populations in the 19thcenturypresentedas simplemodelsinthe worksof Davis 1945)andThompson(1929).Thesedemographers ssumeda naturalprogressionrom a preindustrialto an industrial tage inall societies.Anthropologists avedemonstrated,how-ever,that differentsocietiesexperiencea varietyof populationresponses o in-dustrialization;population"surges" re not uniformin relationto improvedsanitationand healthor in food productionand distribution.Scientificdefini-tions of sustainabilityoften encompass the idea that sustainability s not afixed condition, but a balance between rates of depletion and recovery464

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    (Redman,1999; Haggett,1979; Goudie,1993).Somestudiesof prehistoric o-cieties havecome to depend on renewabledurationas a centralpointaroundwhich a concept of sustainablesocietymight be describedas in the compari-son of long cycle recovery n soil fertilitydemonstratedinancient Peruvs thatin southwest New Mexico Sandorand Eash,1991; Sandorand Gersper, 988).However,some natural scientistsargue that such isolated circumstancesofpast events cannot be used to predictfuture resourcemanagement (Ludwig,Hilbornand Walters,1993). Fromthis perspective,applyinganalysesof pastevents to the presentbreaksdown due to politicaland socialpressureas con-sensus of scientificopinionfailseven after the collapseof the resourcesbeingconsidered.Humanexploitationof resouces,in thisview, leadsto exhaustion.The Sumeriancollapse is used as an example of this process(M.deVreede,1977).Thescientificcommunity has helped to perpetuatethe illusion of sus-tainable development by implicationof scientificand technological progresswhen, it can be argued,the opposite istrue (Roe,1997).Nevertheless,bycom-biningcontemporary, istorical nd prehistoricesearchwe canapproach omesketch of sustainablehumansociety.

    Whilewe read of the impendingcrisisin China,most recentlyoutlined byJamesKynge 2002)and ArthurWaldron2002),with insolventbanks,and in-dustries,and runaway cologicaldisasters,we areoftenremindedof the millionsof Chinesewho want to become consumers.Consumerism sthe goal, buthowcanwe have a sustainableeconomyif it is based on the manufactureand con-sumptionof productswhich can only be sustainedbyan ever increasingpopu-lation of consumers?We are frightenedagain by the threatening grayingofAmerica.InJapan,however,we find a different heme. Thistheme will be de-velopedbelowkeeping n mindthatJapanesepopulationshaveuniquehistoriesand that the people of Japando not constitutea uniformentity(Weiner, 997;Clammer, 001),though they do reflecta common recentculturehistory.RobertReichspokefor legionsof economists(NewYorkTimes,2 Sept.2001)when he addressed he fear that onlyconsumerspending today is keepingtheeconomyfromcollapsing.Reichexpresses he current ogicwhichargues hat arecessionusuallyoccurswhen consumers topspendingandsubsequently om-paniescut theirpayrolls.Buteven AdamSmith 1776)recognizedhatsituationsvaryovertime as conditionsshift.Certainlyn the U.S., he recession ears havetakenfrontstage over the stockmarket"melt-down"nd disintegration f thehightech bubble.Thesituation,however,hasmanyparallelswiththe 1920sand1930s when a Republican dministrationnstituteda taxcut soon afterthe stockmarket rashof 1929.Thispaled,of course, ncomparisono the tax"rebates"n-

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    gineeredby AndrewMellon,Secretary f the Treasuryn the 1920s which re-turned to the wealthiestAmericansmuch of the taxthey had paidinthe previ-ous decadeaccordingoJohnKennethGalbraith. hisspecterdoes informusonsustainable conomies,andgivesone pauseinthe present"downturn."uta dis-cordantpicture merges romJapan,with a highsavingsrate,billions nvestedbyindividualsnpostalaccounts,a lowpopulation ate,a very owconsumption ateand a nearnegativegrowthrate.AsPeterTasker rgues 2002), his"excessive"av-ingsrateisan impediment o consumerismand to the paradigmof modernin-dustrial ociety.Weare remindedby Reich's loquentexaminationof the economy,that it isthe consumereconomy which defines our time. The promiseof the internetbubble(yes,there were manypromises)was that it heraldeda future of pollu-tion-free, itter-lessproducts.Itsketched an economywhere the most valuableworkers,and most profitableproductswould be intellectual. But this visionlackeda clear ramework, nd whilethat was one of the reasons orits,perhaps,temporarydemise,this lackof frameworkhaunts discussionsof sustainability.Recentarticles nSierra, nd inthe Yoderlerthenewspaperof the San FranciscoBayChapterof the SierraClub)haveendorsed the idea of a sustainable econ-omy.Asan anthropologist knowthat there have been periodsand peoplewhoproducedsocieties and modes of economic exploitationof theirenvironmentwhich sustained the carryingcapacityof their locality.One of the earlier andconcise examinationsof this idea is that of Joseph Caldwell(1958).The ex-treme alternative o a sustainedadaptation s the horrific ollapsedescribedbyJaredDiamond 1984,1995)for the people of Easter slandand usedbyCharlesRedman 1999)to illustratea varietyof typesof unstable human environmen-tal exploitation cenarios n historyand to proposea sustainableproject or thefuturesurvivalof humanity.Oneof the best and curiousexamplesof sustain-ability,however, n a historicaland industrial ontext isJapan.

    Kyokonoue(2001)hasdescribedhe evolutionof modernJapanese hought,inparticularhe idea of "Jinkaku"ndthe rolethe concepthasplayed n the de-velopmentof consensus and change,while HarumiBefu(2001)has examinedthe conceptof "Nihonjinron",nd the idea of "Japaneseness"s a responsetomodernity. f we examinethis processbriefly hrougha few essential historicalevents we can see the outlines of a post-industrialthos emergingfrom an al-tered continuityof pasttradition.

    Chinaprovided apanwithmanysourcesof inspiration nd materialculture,but perhapsthe keyto understanding urrent rendsin Japanis in the reper-cussionsof the introduction f Neo-Confucianismnd its use by leyasuin build-466

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    ingthe foundations of the Tokugawa hogunate.This rationalistphilosohyofChu Hsicame to function as the means by whicha new and stableJapanesestate could be established and bywhich trade and commerce could be regu-lated (Tsunoda t al., 1958).While he Tokugawa tate is often referred o as afeudal one, a comparison that confuses its character and institutionswithEuropeaneudalism,the fact that it was basedon rationalisms quitedifferentand often overlooked. MedievalEuropeaneudalism was a choatic state of af-fairs,imbued with irrationalmysticismand scholasticism,brutaland constantwarfare Manchester,993) basicallyunlikeJapanduring he Tokugawaperiod.Infact, some policiesbear more resemblance o effortsto stabilizethe RomanEmpire,orexample Diocletian'sattempt,similarto that of leyasu(inreformsbegunby Hideyoshi),o limit the movement of people from one locatity o an-other,to keep people in certain roles in life.TheTokugawaperiodis often de-scribed as one characterizedby peace and prosperity,a goal of its foundersguided by Neo-Confucianism,nd supported bytrade and learning.

    Thebackgroundo these conditionsrequiresus to recall hat the same yearin whichTokugawa eyasuwas bornin 1542 the Portuguesebeganto tradeinJapanand Christianityndfire arms were introduced.Theyarrived na Chineseboat. WilliamAdams of KentEngland,became a trusted advisor to the gov-ernment andshowedthem howto buildbig shipsresultingn a numberof voy-ages in Japanese-built ships to India and Peru. Duringthe Ashikaga ruleBuddhismbecame powerfulin the politicaland military ield. Variousgroupsof Christianmissions arrivedand quarreledamong themselvesand with theirconverts:the SpanishDominicans,PortugueseJesuitsand Englishand DutchProtestants.Eachwarnedthe governmentof the evils of the others. Conflictswith the Buddhistsresulted as well. The Ashikagarule ended in 1573 andNobunagasubdued the Buddhistsand Hideyoshireducedthe daimyos,a classof office holder.In1585 the governmentexpelledthe foreigntradersand com-pelled the nativeconverts to Christianityo returnto their former faith. TheJapanesecame to the conclusionthat Europeans nd theirChristianity ere anintolerablenuisance and a mere cloakforconquest.The Portugueseneverre-gaineda footholdandonlythe Dutchmanagedto establish radingrelations nthe 17th century, hough limited to the island of Deshima.Under the Tokugawa family, after 1603, Japan remained closed toEuropeans or over 200 years.Japancut itself off from the rest of the world.Whilethere is ample tradition for such a course of action in Confucianismand the policies of the Ming dynasty (Tsunodaet al., 1958), contemporaryevents and informationfrom the world stage were also importantdetermi-

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    nants.Itwas forbidden o buildanyship larger han for limitedcoastal use. NoJapanesecould go abroad, no Europeanenter.Japanlived relatively solatedin its feudal realm as the worldwent its own way.Some hints of this worldcame by wayof the Dutchon Deshimaand in 1837 a shipsailed intoYedoBayflyinga strange flag of stripesand starscarrying ome sailors she had pickedup adrift n the Pacific.Thisshipwas drivenoff bya cannon shot.This lagap-pearedon othershipsandthen in 1853came fourwarshipsunderCommodorePerry,but they refused to be drivenaway. They lay in forbidden waters de-mandingto be heard by the rulersof Japan.In1854 Perryreturnedwith 10ships propelledbysteam. Perrydemanded open tradewithJapan.He landedwith 500 men to sign the treatywhichJapanhad no powerto refuse.

    Still, he country riedto fendoff the future.In1863a British ailorwas killedin a street brawland a Japanesetown was bombarded n retaliation.Anoble-man whose landscommandedthe Straitsof Shimonoseki, ired on foreignves-sels violatingpassageand a fleet of British,French,Dutchand American hipsdestroyedhis fortifications.Finallyan alliedfleet in 1865 landedat Osakaandimposeda ratification f the open portstreatyto Europeans. apan,under theTokugawa,had createda societyin whichits arts and sciences focusedon themaintenanceof a prosperousbut insularsociety.At the dawn of the 19thcen-tury,Japanwatchedin horror he enslavementand rapeof resourcesWesterncolonialdominationbrought o itsneighbors.Trade eemed to be a preludetoconquest and isolationappearedto be the best means of avoidingthe fate ofotherAsian ocieties.ButWesternpowers ookeduponthe worldas a collectiveresourceo be dividedupandexploited.Asan ostrichmighthide itshead,Japancouldnotwithhold ordisguiseitselfand itswealth.Japanmanagedto feed thegrowingpopulation(from23 millionin 1650 to 30 millionin 1720),buta lim-it had been reached. Food resourceswere stretchedand shortages becameprevalent.TheJapanesepeasant,however,adaptedto this harsh situationbyabortionand infanticide,practicesknown as mabiki,the same term used forthinningout young riceplants.The populationstabilizeduntilthe early19thcentury.IreneTaeuber 1962)notedthatJapan'spopulationwas mainlystable,with littlegrowth(1.5%)rom the MeijiRestorationo the late 1930s.Yet he ef-fectsof thisgrowthweresubstantial,withthe populationrising rom35 millionin 1872to 71 million n 1940.Therewassome outletfor excesspopulationdur-ingthe 19th and early20th century,mainlyin the Americas,but this new in-creasewas the resultof anotheradaptationby Japan.

    Theoutcome of Perry's peningof Japanwas an adaptationof Japan'spol-icy to the West.Japansaw that it had three choices before Perry'sarrival:1.468

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    Submit to colonial rule and be subjected as other non-Westernnations, 2.Resistand suffer conquest, genocide, slaveryand suicide, 3. Refuse contactand avoid either course. AfterPerryJapansaw only two possible courses: 1.Submit o colonialrule or 2. Becomea colonialpower.Between1865 and 1900Japanchose the latter and she created the industrialpower necessaryto be-come a militarypower.AsH.G.Wells aid,the salvationof Japanresulted romthis humiliationand, "Never n all the historyof mankind did a nation makesuch a stride as Japanthen did."She modeled hernew social institutionsafterEuropean ountriesand borrowedelements of capitalistdevelopmentand mil-itarystructure rom both Europeand America.The foundationsof the MeijiReformwere based on a thoroughstudyof European nstitutionsand history(Benedict,1946).PrinceIto,a framerof the Constitution f 1889 went so far asto send MarquisKido o HerbertSpencerto solicit his opinionson howJapanmightadaptto modernchallenges Norman,1940).And nthe late19thcenturyJapanstruggledwith Europe's oncept of nationsand the rationalefor colo-nialism.SinceEuropeannationsclassedthe worldas civilized, emi-civilized ndsavagewith only those civilizedas capableof beingcolonialpowers,Japanat-tempted to avoidsolidaritywiththe savageclassand to proveherselfcivilizedbyattemptingto colonize. Her irstattemptwas Taiwan.TheJapanesegovern-ment and press producedan ideologymimicing hat of European olonialismanddevisedbyan AmericanEskildsen,002).Thisconflictwiththe idea of colo-nialism,especiallyits racistcast, had an importantrole in the constructionofa modernidentity orJapan,andJapan's olonialeffortswere patternedon thisconflict.Laterduringthe Parisin 1919 negotiationsJapanwould pressfor aclause to be insertedinto Conferencedocuments puttingthe world's nationsagainstracialdiscrimination.Thisreflectedan oldJapanesepolicyderived romNeo-Confucianhought dating before the beginning of the 17th centuryasdemonstrated nfromFujiwara eika o the Princeof Annamand a ship'soathdrawnup about the same time (Tsunoda, t al. 1958). Itwas rebuffed,and inthe end herdelegationsimplyaskedfor the principle f equalityamongnationsand the just treatment of their nationals(MacMillan,002). Japan'swar withChina n 1894-5 was a preludeto a demonstrationof how far she had come.Russia,Germany nd France ombinedto preventJapan romreaping he ben-efits of herefforts.In1898, Germanyand Russia nvaded Chinaannexingpor-tions. Britainoined inthe seizureof territory. apan oinedthe Westernpowersinthe suppressionof the BoxerRebellion n 1900. ButJapanrespondedand by1905 Japanshocked the Westbydoingwhat no non-Westernpowerhaddonesincethe ebbingof Turkishpowerinthe 16thcentury,defeata Westernnation

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    at sea and on land.JapanannihilatedRussia's avyand crushedRussian rmiesin the field. Europeand Americarealized hatJapanwouldchallengethem inthe Eastand with the comingof WorldWar Japancould,as Ho ChiMinhnot-ed, choosewhich side of this Europeanivilwarto be on, or none. After he war,Japanengagedinconflictwiththe variousrevolutionary overnmentsof Russiaas did manyWesternpowers,and after the death of YuanShih-K'ai,he joinedthe USA nd Europeanpowersincontesting partsof China.ButJapanwas pur-suingmorethanrespect, o whenJapanaskedfora racial qualityclausefor thenew Leagueof Nations, he Europeanpowersrefusedand wentfurther:heyes-tablished naval arms limits in the PacifichumiliatingJapaninto acceptingasmall navyor face open war (Calvocoressi& Pritchard, 989). In 1931, Japantook advantageof the chaos in Chinaand invaded Manchuriawhich had for-merlybeen under Russian ontrol.The civilwar in Chinaprovideda pretext orinvasion,much in the style of Europeanpretexts ust a generationbefore orAmerican"annexations"nthe Philippines r elsewhere.Americawouldnotrec-ognize Japan'sclaims in China,but had not condemned those of Europeanpowersand had consideredChina o be a sphereof her own influence.Japan'swar in Chinahadturnedout poorly by 1939, but no solution seemed possibleand Americawasaidingthe united Chinese orcesafterwarlordZhangXuelianghad kidnappedChiangKai-Shek nd convincedhimthattheyshouldfightwithMaotogetheragainstthe Japanese.

    Japanstood in the middleof the 20th centuryas an equalto nationswhichhadrisenfromtraditional ocieties to industrializationn over700 years.Japanhadaccomplished his taskinjust70 years.Amazingly,ts use of the "sneakat-tack"was an adaptationand elaborationof a Britishplan,createdby HectorC.Bywater,described n detailbyWilliamH. Honan(1991).The sneakattackwasnot unique in 1941; it was used byAmerica n 1846 againstMexico,between1700 and 1870 it used byGreatBritain30 times, and byFrance36 times inthesame period.The best knownattack before PearlHarborwas HoratioNelson'sattackon Copenhagenn 1801,whichdestroyed he Danishnavy.Butwhat wasamazingabout Japan'sattackin 1941 was that it used a plan conceived andmeticulouslydescribedbyBywaterna bookwidelydiscussed n worldcapitalsin the 1920s and 30s. Bywater reated a scenarioin whichJapanwould attackthe U.S.A. nd seize the Philippinesand Guam.Adm. IsorokuYamamotowasnaval attache in Washington n 1926 and met Bywater n 1934 in London.Bywater lso describedan eventual American ictoryby island-hopping,muchas the war would unfold.ThatJapanwould assimilatesucha paradigm romamoreadvancedseat of powerwasentirelyconsistentwith its culturalpattern n470

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    responseto Chinabetween the 5th and 16th centuriesof this era(Tsunoda,DeBary&Keene,1958). DuringhisperiodJapan ntegratedChinesephilosophy ndreligion nto a localadaptationwhich was instrumental n the processof creat-inga centralizedgovernment.Canwe findthe purposebehind this planin theman Yamamoto,with defeat as the outcome?Whyelse would Yamamotoun-dertake a planthatwas doomed to fail by its own architect?Ofcourse,he wasassassinatedbythe U.S.347th Wingon April18th 1943 almost a yearafterlos-ingthe Battleof Midway.nan interviewwithShigeharuMatsumoto, memberof the JapaneseCabinet in 1940, Yamamoto tated,

    "In he firstsixto twelvemonths of a war with the UnitedStatesand GreatBritainI will runwild and win victory upon victory.Butthen, if the warcontinuesafterthat, Ihave no expectationof success."It is well knownthat Yamamotowas not eagerto enter into a war withthe

    U.S.A.Hedisagreedwith the WarParty's iewthatJapanesevictorieswould forceAmerica into a peace favorable to Japan'sdesires to be a recognizedworldpower.The factthat he wasassassinatedafterMidwayndicates hat he had nonew planto modifyBywater'sprediction.Ifhe did he must not have shared itwith hisassociates or superiors.Perhapshe undertookhis planforcertainde-feat basedon hisexperiences n the Westwhichgave himanotherplan,one inwhichJapanneeded defeat to change and become democratic and less cul-turallydistinct. One is reminded of the life of the Buddhistmonk Nichirenwhose famous tractdenouncedJapan'srulers n the 13th centuryand predict-ed the punishmentof the people byforeigninvasion,one isalso reminded ofthe teachingsof YamagaSoko,whose redefinitionof Neo-Confucismintermsof originalConfucian ontext and emphasis)produceda reorganization f thesamurai class emphasizingtheir need to cultivateother artsand duties thanwar.Thissystematicexposition edto whatcame to be knownas the Wayof theWarriorbushido) nd led to a conversionof the samuraiclassduringthe longTokugawapeace froma militaryaristocracyo one of politicaland intellectualleadership.Theyeventuallybecame the "brains" f the Restorationmovement(Tsunoda t al. 1958.)Andwhile such a planbyYamamoto o changeJapanbydefeat would haveviolateddutyto the leadership, t could stillbe interpretedas devotion or dutyto the state.

    Defeated nWWII, ithitsindustry nd militarynAmericanhands,Japanre-made itself. Itstillavoidedcolonialrule,butwasforcedinto the culturalmoldof the USA. apanagainexcelledand itseconomyoutstripped he West,as did

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    its use of the capitalistmeansof managingwealth.However,withinthis narrowtransition,Japanesecultureremained,outwardlyclothed in the symbolsandachievements which define success and progressin the West, but with thebones of traditionthere, unchanged.That traditionis Shinto and the entireframework f personalrelationswhich areguidedandgiven meaningbyit,butmodifiedbyNeo-Confucianism.efu(2001)concentrateson the construction fNihonjinronas a conscious process,almost a civil religion, welling up fromtraditionas a means of dealingwithJapan'spostwarstresses. Hearguesit hasbecomea "model or behavior."Butthis model forbehavior s not constructedon Shintoismalone, and certainlynot traditionalShinto(Tsunoda, t al., 1958);rather t restson the foundationof Neo-Confucianism hich hasguidedJapansince the early17th century.

    Certainly apan's tructure odaystill reflects raditionand the criticismsofits traditionaltrade barriersonly serve to expose how this framework unc-tions to sustainJapaneselife and culture.Japan'sdistribution ystem is oftenusedas an exampleof traditionalnefficiencies;orexample,in 1987Japanhada population o wholesalerratioof 315:1whilein the USAt was69:1.F.L.K. sudescribedthe guild structure n detail in his text, lemoto:TheHeartof Japan(1975),and demonstratedhow it was a prototypefor organizations.JapaneseanthropologistsikeChieNakaneargueforthistraditional ystemas a resilientbase for functional adaptation (Kelly,1991). The economic frameworkpre-served the traditionalsociety by mandatingratesand trends in employment.Thiswas not done withoutconsiderable tressandchange,as Norbeck Norbeck1960) noted; in the 1950s substantialdeteriorationin kinship patternswereplainat that time, but reinforcedwithextensionsof traditional orms,like fic-tive kinship.Traditionalormsof protestmergedwitha modern(U.S.-imposed)legalsystem,to respond o massivepollutionresultingromthe vastpos-warn-dustrializationFisher&Sargent,1975).Aesthetic deasof landscape preserva-tion as well as concepts of public health led to the creation of parksandwildernesswhich conflictedwith increasing conomicdemandsfor naturalre-sources(Simmons,1973; Numata,et al., 1975).

    Still,simply maintaining he formof the traditional ocietydoes not neces-sarilypreservea sustainableeconomy.Todo thata countrymust havea low fer-tilityrate.Japanhas this. Thoughin 1991 JimImpocoof U.S.Newsand WorldReportcharacterized his populationdrop as a "silentprotest"describedbysome Japanesedoctorsas a "babystrike"resulting rom the changinglivingconditions.However, he traditionunderlying he trend undermines his por-trayal.AfterWWII,he birthrateinJapanwas34.3 per1,000and authoritieswere472

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    alarmed at the potentialfor starvationand social unrest.Unlikeother nations,Japan's esponsewasuniqueandsustained.Thepopulationrespondedo the cri-sis by a dramaticpopulation drop to 17.2 per 1,000 by 1957. From1949 to1956 sterilizations an at 33,000 peryearand upto 44,000 in 1957. More han1 million nducedabortionswerereported nthe sameyear.Japanhadreturnedto its traditionalmethods to controlpopulationafterthe introductionof pesti-cides, new healthmeasuresand increased ood production nthe pre-WWIIe-riod had provided he resources orpopulationgrowthencouragedbythe needto meet the challengeof the West.Dramatic oncentration f industryncoastalareastraditionallyused for agriculturen the postwar periodresultedin con-gestion,pollutionand a generaldeclineof the qualityof life.Theresponse o thissituation nthe 60s and 70swasto shift to a less concentratedplanwithgreateremphasison traditionalpatterns Fisher&Sargent,1975).

    While he USA urrentlypressures apan o consume,lower nterestrates,andcreatehuge WPA-likeovernmentprojects, he Japaneselargely gnorethe cri-sis. Ourpressand economists deridethe Japaneseeffortsto deal with the cur-rent economic situation by referring o it as "financial ocialism" see JamesBrooke,NYTimes,/11/01).FromKoizumio the Issui-KaiOneWaterAssociation,a Nationalistgroup),the Japanesehave resistedgoing at financialtrends inWesternways.Our inancialbailoutof the savingsand loanindustryhasbeen re-jected. Westerneconomists are pressuring he Japaneseto privatize he PostOfficewhere a majority f theJapanesepeoplehave theirsavings.Koizumi s re-sisting hisstrategy.TheClinton dministration,ikeBushSr.andJr.and Reagan,pressuredheJapanese o restructureheireconomyto parallelmoreWestern r-ganizationand awayfromwhat Hsudescribedas a Shinto-based ystem.

    The present situation has parallelswith early 20th century Japan,whenWestern-educated, unnosukeInoue applied Westernbankingand monetarytheoriesto Japan'seconomic problems(Tett,2002). The resultwasjust as cat-astrophic orJapanas these methodswere forthe West,producing similarcol-lapseof the economyand banksasthe Depressionnthe USA nd Europe.Whileno one today can say howJapanmight have faired had traditionalapproach-es been taken, it is obvious fromthe West'sexperiencewith economic policyfrom 1900 to 1930 that there were no successfulplans.This swhyKoizumi,deemed a reformerbyboththe Westandthe Japanese,has surprisedWesternobservers.He has concentrated his efforts not on re-formingthe debt and overregulation,which frightensthe West,but on theConstitution perhapsbecause it was writtenbythe USA nd does not fit theneeds of Japanesesocialadaptation.Hisvisitto the Yashukni hrine in Tokyo

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    was in a similar one and while it frustrates he Westand her neighbors, t re-inforcesunderlyingocialmotivators.This one is seen in Koizumi's lectionslo-gan, "Kaeruo!" Let's hange!).Does it mean gettingrid of Japan'scentralizedgovernmentaland economicsystems?Notinthe wayWesternobservershope.Hehas hinted that he wouldsupportreallocations f funds fromrural o urbanareas, but he is vague about what kindof funds and for what purposetheywould be used. Thepresentsystemredistributesunds from the urbanareastothe poorerruralareas, is somethinglike a traditional evelingmechanism.Bychanging,Japanmay onlybe adapting na familiarmanner,certainlynot inthecontrived undamentalismof the Judeo-Christianults responsible or sectari-an violenceinthe restof the world,or inthe collapsing ashionof revitalizationmovementsin the face of Western olonialismor globalism.

    Western conomic criticshave pointedto the need for bankingreformandincreasedconsumerspendingas the only solutions.Certainlyhe U.S.bail outof the Savingsand Loansdid not prevent unkbond and REITsromcollapsingin the 1980s, or the stockmanipulations,accountingschemes, and the fall ofthe dot.coms,which rockedthe U.S.economy and left millionsof Americanswithoutsavings.MartinWolf 2002)blamesJapan's aversas the mainproblem,but ifJapanese politicianshad followedWashington nd bailed out the banksthat would not have changedthings.Japan'speople are better off financiallyand have betterprospectswith theirsolidsavingsthan U.S.citizenswho haveseen theirsavingsand retirementsdisappear.NathanLewis 2002)arguesfor aslashin taxes to save the banking ndustry.Butif people do not want to spend,how can this help?

    TheJapanesehave refusedto increaseconsumption,to producemorechil-dren or to change their habitsof living.Theyhave maintained a low impactconstructionindustrycompared with the West. In fact, Japan's agriculturalprotectionismhas protectedits farmlandfromdevelopment,and its landusepolicieshaveconcentratedpopulationon the coasts and left the interiornear-ly as densely populated as it was during the last century. Sprawlis not aJapanese problem.So what is happening in Japan?Japan is buildinga sus-tainable economy for the 21st centurywhile everyother nation on the plan-et builds non-sustainableeconomies based on the economic theories andconditionsof the 1950s (Pearce&Atkinson,1993).AndwhileJapan,likeoth-er developed countries,enjoys enormous importsof naturalresources,par-ticularlyoil, effortsare being made to reduce these dependencies and it isobvious that if currentpopulationtrends continue Japan's"ecological oot-print"will decline (Rees,2002).474

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    Japandoes face a considerableproblemwith energy,giventhat in 1996 on-ly 18%of itsenergywas producedbynon-fossil uel sources.By1998 this sharehad increasedto 19.1% JapaneseMinistry f ForeignAffairs,2001) in a con-certed effortto reachKyotoevels.Prior o the 1990sJapanhad the highesten-ergycostsof any industrializedountry,with the thoughtthat these costsmightbe deterringeconomic recovery he governmentderegulatedmuchof the en-ergymarket,with no appreciableresults.

    TheJapaneseof today are livingin a depressedeconomy in Westerneco-nomic terms. But to the Japanese, they are still livinga verycomfortable ife;they havesavingsand securitybasedon tradition.Certainlywe hearof layoffsandtheJapaneseunemploymentrate is highforJapanbutat the levelU.S.econ-omistshavelongconsiderednecessary.Butanother"sustaining"spectof theireconomyisthe distribution f income.AsWilliamBaumoldemonstratedat the1991 Sloan Foundationconference on researchon industryand economicgrowth, virtuallyall the wealth that was createdduringthe U.S.economy'sre-structuringnthe 1980s flowed to the upper20%of American ociety.InJapan,the economy'sproductivityrowthyieldeda moreequitabledistribution, s didEurope's n general. Theirpopulation is aging, but it is also undergoinganadaptationof population profilewhichmayhave reachedsustainable evelsatpresent global conditions. Thisaging of the population is generallyviewedwith concern and we see similarshifts in droppingfertilityand populationinIrelandand Portugal Bogin,2001). Butthese two nationshaveexperiencedsig-nificantmigrationalong with droppingfertilityand neitherdisplayedJapan'spre-20thcenturydemographicshifts.

    Noboru 1999)describes our crises or21st centuryJapan:1. Intellectual re-ativity,2. Sustainableenergy,3. Environmental ollutionand the population.Actually,he last,a projecteddecline to 100 millionby2050 (Kristof,999),mayprovide he solutionto two of the four.With he reduction n populationJapancouldrelyon renewable ourcesof cleanenergy husreducing nvironmental ol-lution.A reductionin energy needs will also result from a reductionin con-sumerism, less garbageand pollution. Bogin (2001) notes that the Japanesespendthe moston the elderlyof anynation, hatJapaneseadultsarechosing obuild theirfamilies around care for the elderly.About 70%of singlewomen intheirthirtiesare livingwithagingparents.ButNoboru eaves out a morethreat-ening challengeto Japanand the world, he collapseof worldwide ood chains.Theoceansarealready allingvictim o overfishingnderosionanddesertifcationare reducing productivity long with changingweather patternslike El Nino.Risingpopulationdemands or food anddecreasingproductivityhreatennoton-

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    lyeconomicdevelopmentbut modernlifestyles.WhatJapancould do now istocontinue histrendandreduce tspopulationo sustainable evelsgivenlocalna-tionalconditionsand return o a mode similar o itspre-1865conditions.Japanis criticised or not supporting mmigration f people fromdevelopingnations(Kristof,999).Onewonders fthis criticisms moreof a frustation tJapanese ul-turalcontainmentof globalismand resistenceo European ominationas inthe19thcentury.Bogin 2001)claims hatthis wouldbenefittheJapaneseeconomyallowingfor cheap labor and a wave of immigrantswith high fertilitywhichwouldreduce he slideinJapanesepopulation.ThefactthatBoginrecognizeshathighinitial ertility n immigrantss reducedovertime in developingcountriesseems to make this a shortterm solution.Also,Boginand other studentsof hu-man population eem to ignore he opportunityhe Japanesehave of adaptingpopulation o technologyand environmental xploitationand resources.Bogin(2001)argues hatbyaccepting mmigrantsromdeveloping ountries,developedcountriescan benefit and the childrenwillbenefitfrom conditions nthese de-velopedcountries.Also, hateventuallydevelopingnationswill also go througha dropinfertilitywhichwillproducea similarpopulationcrisis n them. Itonlyseems rational hen, if eventuallydevelopingcountrieswill also face a grayingpopulation or usto face this problemnow,rather han putit off. Perhapst willbe better in the long run for all nations to study the Japaneseexperiment.Immigrationmaynot be the answer,but theJapanesemayhaveone answer. amnotsuggestinga return o pre-industrialechnology,rathera modification f cul-turalpatterns upportedby21stcenturyechnology.Onemightgo so faras to saythatJapan san indigenousculturerespondingo the maladaptation f the glob-al economydefinedbybothJulesHenry n the 1960s,Goldschmidt, t al. 1990andJerryMander ndEdwardGoldsmithn1996.Like therperiodsnJapan's is-tory,Japanseems to be respondingo an internationalpressure n itsown way,as itdidwithEuropean olonialism nthe 19thcentury.Theidea thata countrycan maintaina highlevelqualityof life, lowunemploymentand lowconsump-tion issignificant nd a severe contrast n comparisonwithotherdevelopedna-tions. Onewonders f we arewitnessing he future.

    Finally,Japanhas been able to industrialize rom a "conservative"ocialand economic conditionfrom the 16th to the 20th centuriesand maintainaconsiderableraditional ulturalbase in contradictiono what we shouldexpectaccordingo Armstrong'sheory (2000).Japanhasalso been ableto adaptto thesocialand economic stressesof 21st centuryglobalism.

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