Sustainable Development in Fragile Ecosystem by Chris Brown

7/29/2019 Sustainable Development in Fragile Ecosystem by Chris Brown

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Sustainable Development in a Fragile Ecosystem

This presentation:

Threats

Namibias setting

Impacts of devolution

Climate change

Conclusions

Chris Brown


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Key threats to Ecosystems

Land transformation Loss of biological diversity

Impacts of climate change

Rural poverty

And these are all interrelated


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RIVERS

Zambezi

ChobeLinyantiKwando

KavangoKunene

Orange

Perennial Rivers

All other rivers flow briefly

during good rainy seasons

and some may not flow for

many years


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RAINFALL

Namibia is anarid country

KEY TO RAINFALL

andLAND

CAPABILITY

Domest ic

Livestock

Key to Land Capability

Wildl i fe Crops

Arid MarginalT

Desert T

Semi-arid MarginalT Marginal

Sub-humid LowT Medium

Semi-arid T Low Marginal

RIVERS


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VISION 2030

THE OVERRIDING

MESSAGE THAT THIS

REPORT CONVEYS IS :by capitalising on Namibias comparative advantages

and providingappropriate incentives to use our natural

resources in the most efficient ways possible, we will be

in a better position to create a safer, healthier and more

prosperous future for all Namibians to 2030 and

beyond.


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WHAT ARE NAMIBIAS COMPARATIVE ADVANTAGES ?

VAST OPEN SPACES AND WILDERNESS AREAS

ABUNDANT AND DIVERSE BIODIVERSITY AND

WILDLIFE POPULATIONS that are well adapted to

Namibias harsh climatic and physical conditions,

and have extremely high direct& indirect use value.

UNCONTAMINATED MEAT AND

FISH PRODUCTS

Rich CULTURAL diversities andvaluable TRADITIONAL

KNOWLEDGE

Efficient SERVICE Industries


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Biological diversity Endemic diversity


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People 2.1 million

Goats 2.0 million

Sheep 2.0 million

Cattle 2.0 million

Wildlife 2.0 million +

Cattle 31 million ha

Small scale cereal & livestock 5.5 million ha

Small stock 27 million ha

Intensive agriculture

0.04 million ha

Distributionof wildlife:

Bi di i i i d


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Vegetation types

Biomes

Protected AreasConcessions

FreeholdConservancies

CommunalConservancies

Biodiversity setting continued..


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Registered & emergingCommunal Conservancies

= 18.5%

State Protected Areas= 16.5%

Freehold Conservancies= 6.1%

Community Forestsand Concessions

= 1.3%

Total Area underconservation management

44.5%

Private protected areas2.1%


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Livestock and wildlife numbers in Namibia over past 40 years

0

500.000

1.000.000

1.500.000

2.000.000

2.500.000

3.000.000

3.500.000

4.000.000

4.500.000

5.000.000

1971/2 1981/2 1991/2 2001/2 2004 2008 2009

Cattle

Small-stock

Wildlife


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0

20.000

40.000

60.000

80.000

100.000

120.000

140.000

160.000

1997 2000 2004 2008

Number of people employed in the agricultural sector(data from the Ministry of Labour & Social Services)


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TourismTrophyhunting

Live capture& sell

Own use

Meatproduction

Ownuse

Venisonproduction

Livesale


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Live sale (N$)

Cattle 1,500 - 5,000

Goats - 200 - 700

Springbok - 950Oryx - 2,200Kudu - 2,900

Giraffe - 15,000

Roan - 120,000Sable - 220,000

Buffalo - 350,000White Rhino - 250,000Black Rhino - 500,000
http://www.wildlife-pictures-online.com/mainpictures.htmlhttp://www.wildlife-pictures-online.com/image-files/xgir4.jpg


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Tourism (million N$)

Wildlife viewing 2,700

Trophy hunting - 316
http://www.wildlife-pictures-online.com/lionpictures1.htmlhttp://www.wildlife-pictures-online.com/mainpictures.htmlhttp://www.wildlife-pictures-online.com/image-files/xgir4.jpg


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Rainfall (land productivity)

Higher financial

returns from exotic

species management

in areas of highrainfall & soil

fertility

Higher financial

returns from

indigenous species

management in lower

rainfall areas

Policy failures drive downvalues of indigenous species

Subsidies (e.g. in agriculture) driveup value of exotic species management


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National levelTotal gross annual output of wholeagricultural sector (large & small stock,and crops) commercial andsubsistence sectors

N$1,878 million

Total gross annual output of non-agricultural natural resource basedsector ( tourism, trophy hunting,

wildlife products, indigenous plantproducts, etc i.e. indigenous

biodiversity) commercial sector only

N$3,200 million

Indigenous biodiversity production systems have overtaken agriculturalproduction systems and exceed them by a factor of at least two times


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Best returns on land- financial results: Karas region

Item Communallivestock

Freeholdlivestock

Tourism

Financial grossincome perhectare (N$)

4.71 15.00 165.00

Net cash income

per hectare (N$)

0.93 0.48 23.00

Livelihoodsincome (N$)

1.08 3.27 19.00

Financial rate of

return

5.5% 9.8% 12.9%


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Job creation: farming versus tourism

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

before 1996

farming

1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003

Years

Num

bersofemploy

ees

Fulltime employment - operational

Contract employment - building

Farming


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The tourism sector Massive growth in tourism since 1989

Now over 800 000 visitors / year

6.9% growth projected for next 10 years

72,000 jobs; N$6.8 billion to GDP

= 16% of total GDP

0

200000

400000

600000

800000

1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003

Year

No

ofvisitors

2006 2007


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Number of tourism

establishments registered with

the Namibia Tourism Board in 2004-

2006

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

2004 2005 2006


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Number of hunters visiting Namibia

Year: 1994 1999 2004 2008

Number

of hunters 1,918 4,030 5,363 7,000

Overall increase 265%

Trophy hunting (2005) earned N$316 million - 20%more than all small stock farming (freehold and

communal together)


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0

50000

100000

150000

200000

250000

300000

350000

1975

1976

1977

1978

1979

1980

1981

1982

1983

1984

1985

1986

1987

1988

1989

1990

1991

1992

1993

1994

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

Freehold wildlife management unit Private Reserve

Community Forest Communal Conservancy

Concession Protected Area

Area of land (km2) under eachtype of conservationmanagement: 1975 - 2010


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Percentage of Biomes covered by different forms of conservationmanagement


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Percentage of Vegetation types covered by different forms of conservation management


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Connectivity and co-managementlinking parks and conservancies


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Some wildlife trends incommunal conservancies


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Poaching virtually stoppedIncreasing wildlife numbersElephant & rhino doubledPredator recoveryRise in HWCConservancy management

skills built


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Between 1999 20127

Total almost 5,000

animals translocated 5 different species

Value over N$15 million

6 locally extinct species

Black rhino

Giraffe

Black faced impala

Burchells zebra

Blue wildebeest

Sable antelope


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Mudumu north ComplexKhaudum north Complex

Greater Waterberg Complex

Greater Sossusvlei Complex

Greater Fish River CanyonComplex

Co-management

approaches


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Greater

Sossusvlei-Namib co-

managementComplex


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Climate change projections

Temperature changes


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Climate change projections continued ..


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Climate changeprojections continued ..

Projected changes in

rainfall across Africa


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Impacts on production systems

Cattle 31 million ha (38%)

Small scale cereal & livestock 5.5 million ha (9%)

Small stock 27 million ha

(33%)

Intensive agriculture0.04 million ha (


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Climate change projections continued ..

Current mean annualrainfall acrossNamibia

Projected mean annual rainfall across Namibiaby 2050 and 2080, according to predictionsgenerated by the HADCM3 generalcirculation model


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20502000

Impacts on Cropping

Growing Season Failure


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Projected areas lost to rain-fed crop production inNamibia and number of

people impacted

By 2050 By 2080

4 million ha 6 million ha

209,000 people

28% of rural pop.

485,000 people

38% or rural pop.

20802050

Present


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2080

2050

Present

Projected prime large-stock farming areas inNamibia

Prime large-stock area lost

By 2050 By 2080

9 million ha 18 million ha


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y = 0.0002x^2 -0.0498x + 7.000

Relationship between rainfall and carrying capacity


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Median

25%-75%

Non-Outlier RangeOutliers

current 2050 2080

Time period

-100

0

100

200

300

400

500

Revenueperhecta

re

Livestock farming revenue

is strongly linked to annualrainfall.

A 1% change in rainfallleads to a 1.36% change inrevenue per ha.


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Projected livestock and wildlife numbers in Namibia inresponse to climate change

0

500.000

1.000.000

1.500.000

2.000.000

2.500.000

3.000.000

3.500.000

4.000.000

4.500.000

5.000.000

Present 2050 2080

Cattle

Smallstock

Wildlife


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Conclusions1. Build on comparative and competitive advantages

2. Link conservation to rural development and livelihood

diversification

3. Align markets to work for conservation of indigenousecosystems and biodiversity through appropriate policies

and legislation on wise and sustainable use

4. Devolve rights and responsibilities over land and natural

resources to local level

5. Use protected areas to create incentives for compatible land

uses and as engines for local & national development

6. Limit the role of government to that of creating a conducive

environment, regulating for equity and providing extension

and capacity-building services to the rural


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And finally,

If you work against market forces, you will fail.

If you work with market forces you have harnessed the mostpowerful partner available.

Thank you

Sustainable Development in Fragile Ecosystem by Chris Brown

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