Sustainable Bioenergyand Environmental Aspects An …€¦ · · 2011-11-21Brazil bioethanol US...
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Sustainable Bioenergy and
Environmental Aspects
An IEA Perspective
© OECD/IEA 2010
An IEA Perspective
Paolo Frankl
Head, Renewable Energy Division
International Energy Agency
Sustainable bioenergy:
sowing the seeds of sustainable development
Rome, 10 November 2011
Topics
� Current Trends in Biomass for Energy
� The Role of Bioenergy in a Sustainable Energy
Future
� IEA Roadmaps on Biofuels and Bioenergy
© OECD/IEA 2010
© IEA/OECD 2011
Trends in Biomass Energy Supply
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© IEA/OECD 2011
� Bioenergy today provides around 10% of global
primary energy supply
� Most of it, however, is inefficient, traditional
biomass
Recent Trends in Bioelectricity
Production
100
150
200
250
300
TW
h
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0
50
100
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
United States Germany China Brazil Japan RoW
•Growth particularly strong in Germany and China
•Bioenergy provides around 1.3% of electricity today
Recent Trends in Biofuels Production
20
30
40
50
60
Mto
e
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0
10
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
Year
Brazil bioethanol US bioethanol EU-27 biodiesel RoW biofuels
•Production concentrated in Brazil, US and EU
•Biofuels provide around 2% of transport fuels
(c. 3% of road transport fuels)
The IEA ETP 2010 Blue Map Scenario
Towards a Low Carbon Future
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� Baseline Scenario – business-as-usual; no adoption of new energy
and climate policies
� BLUE Map Scenario - energy-related CO2-emissions halved by
2050 through CO2-price and strong support policies
� Serves as basis for all IEA Technology Roadmaps
� Bioenergy contributes in all four end-use sectors
[ETP 2010]
Key Technologies for Reducing Global
CO2 Emissions
30
35
40
45
50
55
60
Gt
CO
2
CCS 19%
Renewables 17%
Nuclear 6%
Power generation efficiency
and fuel switching 5%
Baseline emissions 57 Gt
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A wide range of technologies will be necessary to reduce
energy-related CO2 emissions substantially.
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050
and fuel switching 5%
End-use fuel switching 15%
End-use fuel and electricity
efficiency 38%
BLUE Map emissions 14 Gt
WEO 2009 450 ppm case ETP2010 analysis
[ETP 2010]
Biofuels Contribution to Emission
Reductions in the Transport Sector
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� Efficiency improvements are the most important low-cost measure to
reduce transport emissions.
� Biofuels can reduce global transport emissions by 2.1 Gt CO2-eq. in
2050.
� To achieve these reductions, all biofuels must provide considerable
life-cycle GHG emission reductions.
Final Biomass Use by Sector in ETP
2010� Biomass currently provides around 910 Mtoe (38 EJ) of final energy
per year
� 200 Mtoe (8.3 EJ)/yr of commercial heat and power and 53
Mtoe (2.2 EJ)/yr of liquid transport fuels
� Traditional biomass accounts for over 670 Mtoe (28 EJ)/yr
� In BLUE Map final biomass use increases to around 1850 Mtoe
(78EJ)/yr in 2050.
� This will require roughly 7 000 Mt dry biomass
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© IEA/OECD 2011
� This will require roughly 7 000 Mt dry biomass
[ETP 2010]0
10
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2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050
EJ
0
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Mto
e
Transport
Buildings - solid
biomassBuildings - l iquid and
gaseous biomass
Non-energy use
Public CHP
Industry
Electricity
IEA Roadmaps - Bioenergy
� Roadmaps are intended to:
� Highlight pathway(s) to reach large scale use of low-carbon
technologies, consistent with Energy Technology Perspectives 2010
� Focus on the key steps over the next 5-10 years, as well as long-term
milestones, including:
� Identify barriers and obstacles and how to overcome these
� Identify key conversion pathways
� Key RD&D gaps and how to fill them while ensuring sustainability
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� Key RD&D gaps and how to fill them while ensuring sustainability
� Identify market requirements and policy needs
� Define international collaboration needs
� Biofuels for Transport
� Published April 2011
� Bioenergy for Heat and Power
� Work in progress
� Published Spring 2012
Global Biomass Potential
Pri
ma
ry e
ne
rgy
(E
J)
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� A considerable potential of “low risk” biomass sources has been assessed
� 145 EJ of sustainable biomass primary energy supply could come entirely
from residues, wastes, and sustainably grown energy crops
Source: Adapted from Dornburg
et al., 2008 and Bauen et al.,
2009, and supplemented with
data from IEA, 2010c.
Pri
ma
ry e
ne
rgy
(E
J)
IEA Biofuel Roadmap: Vision
� Global biofuel supply grows
from 2.5 EJ today to 32 EJ in
2050
� Biofuels share in total
transport fuel increases from
2% today, to 27% in 2050
� Diesel/kerosene-type
biofuels become particularly
Fin
al e
ne
rgy
(E
J)
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important to decarbonise
heavy transport modes
� Biofuels could reduce global
transport emissions by 2.1 Gt
CO2-eq. in 2050
� Large-scale deployment of
advanced biofuels will be
vital to meet the roadmap
targets
Fin
al e
ne
rgy
(E
J)
Land Requirements
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© IEA/OECD 2011
� Land required to produce biofuels increases from 30 Mha today to 100 Mha
in 2050, in addition to 1 billion tons of residues
� Sustainable land expansion will be challenging given increasing demand
for food and biomaterial
� Sound policies are needed to ensure sustainability and mitigate risk of
indirect land-use change (ILUC)
� In the long-term, a sustainable land-use management for all agricultural and
forestry land is needed.
Note: This is gross land demand, excluding land-use reduction potential of co-products
Sustainability of Bioenergy – A focus on
environmental aspects
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� Lifecycle-GHG emission reductions, uncertain ILUC
� Land-use competition with other sectors (agriculture,
forestry, nature conservation etc.)
� Impact on biodiversity
� Water use (in cultivation and processing) is becoming an
increasingly important issue
� UNEP and IEA Bioenergy have recently published a
report on the issue
GHG-Reduction Potential of Biofuels
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© IEA/OECD 2011
� Most biofuels can reduce GHG-emissions compared to gasoline/diesel
� To achieve GHG reductions, biofuels must be produced in an efficient way
� However, uncertainty on the impact of land-use change on GHG balance
remains
Measures to reduce environmental
impact of bioenergy production
� Pressure on agricultural land can be limited and risk of
ILUC can be mitigated through:
� Productivity improvements
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� Productivity improvements
� Efficient use of co-products (biorefinery concept)
� Use of residues and wastes as feedstock
� Biomass cascading
� Use of pasture/ unused land
� Land-use zoning and sustainable land-use management
schemes
Importance of Sustainability Criteria
� Sound policies are needed to ensure biomass for energy
is produced sustainably
� Adoption of internationally aligned sustainability
certification for all bioenergy based on internationally
agreed sustainability criteria such as those developed
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agreed sustainability criteria such as those developed
by GBEP
� Ultimately, all agricultural and forestry products should
be certified