Sustainability, Climate Change and Tourism: Challenges posed by the global economic crisis

Bournemouth University, 25 November 2009

   

Luigi CabriniDirector, Sustainable Development of TourismWorld Tourism Organization (UNWTO)www.unwto.org

Tourism, economic crisis and climate change: Challenges and opportunities

1. Global crisis and tourism

2. Tourism in the Green Economy

3. The Davos Process on Climate Change and Tourism

4. Mitigation strategies

Contents

2008 Forecast 2009

World +2% -6% to -4%

Europe +0.3% -8% to -5%

Asia and the Pacific +1% -4% to -1%

Americas +3% -6% to -3%

Africa +4% 1% to 5%

Middle East +18% -10% to -5%

International Tourism 2009 – full year forecast

Sour

ce: W

orld

Tou

rism

Org

aniza

tion

(UNW

TO)

Source: World Tourism Organization (UNWTO)

Outbound: declining expenditure abroad in 2009

International Tourist Arrivals, World

6

10 10

0

9

31 0

-3-1

-3 -3

-8-10

-13

-1

-11

-7

-3 -3

-25

-20

-15

-10

-5

0

5

10

15

Jan.. Feb. Mar. Apr. May Jun. Jul. Aug. Sep. Oct. Nov. Dec. Jan.. Feb. Mar. Apr. May Jun. Jul. Aug. Sep. Oct. Nov. Dec.

Chan

ge (%

)

Demand picking up?

+2%

+6% -1% -7%

Source: World Tourism Organization (UNWTO)

20092008

Easter Holiday (March)

Easter Holiday (April)

7.9

0.0

2.9

-1.5

10.1

5.46.1 6.1

2.0

-6% to -4%

1% to 3%

-6

-4

-2

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009* 2010*

2010 forecast: 1% to 3%

International Tourism 2010 forecast

Ch

ang

e (

%)

Source: World Tourism Organization (UNWTO)

UNWTO Panel of Tourism Experts

Source: World Tourism Organization (UNWTO) ©

25

50

75

100

125

150

175

T1 T2

'03

T3 T1 T2

'04

T3 T1 T2

'05

T3 T1 T2

'06

T3 T1 T2

'07

T3 T1 T2

'08

T3 T1 T2

'09

T3

Prospects

Ev aluation

Much

better

Better

Equal

Worse

Much

w orse

Much

better

Better

Equal

Worse

Much

w orse

UNWTO Panel of Tourism Experts: regaining confidence

International Tourist Arrivals

0

200

400

600

800

1,000

1,200

1,400

1,600

1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020

milli

on

Tourism 2020 Vision forecastActual 1995-2008

1.0 bn

922 mn

1.6 bn

Actual trend vs. Tourism 2020 Vision forecastWorld

534 mn

-T2020V average annual growth (aag) rate projected of 4.1% a year- 2006: +6.1%- 2007: +6.1%- 2008: +2.0%- actual aag in period 1995-2008 has been 4.3% a year

Source: World Tourism Organization (UNWTO)

World, Growth of Real GDP & International Tourist Arrivals

-2

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010

% c

han

ge

ove

r p

revi

ou

s ye

ar

Real GDP

Tourist Arrivals

Tourism, economy and external shocks

Echo of second oil crisis / Falklands and Israel-Lebanon conflicts

Gulf War / disintegration of Yugoslavia

Asian Financial Crisis

11S Iraq, SARS

7% a year between 2004 and 2007

Kosovo

2009: -1.1%2010: 3.1%

2011-2014: 4%

Crisis: time for change, time of chances

- Sustainability issues- Aging stock and need to regeneration- Energy dependence- Climate change adaptation and mitigation- Competitiveness, human resources and cost structure- Low occupancy of accommodation and strong seasonality- Need for product development and diversification- Insufficient market differentiation- Need for more and more effective marketing and promotion- Cooperation and coordination

• Structural underlying weaknesses and threats are more visible:

Response to the Crisis - Roadmap for recovery

• Focus on job retention and sector support• Understand the market and respond rapidly• Boost partnership and ´Coopetition`• Advance innovation and technology• Strengthen regional and interregional support

Roadmap for recoveryResilience

• Create new jobs – particularly in SME’s• Mainstream tourism in stimulus and

infrastructure programs• Review tax and visa barriers to growth• Improve tourism promotion and capitalize on

major events• Include tourism in aid for trade and development

support

Roadmap for recoveryStimulus

Roadmap for recoveryGreen Economy

• Develop Green Jobs and Skills Training• Respond Effectively to Climate Change• Profile Tourism & Travel in all Green Economy

Strategies• Encourage Green Travel Infrastructure

Investment• Promote a Green Travel Culture in Suppliers,

Consumers & Communities

Tourism in the Green Economy

Forthcoming Study on Tourism for the GreenEconomy Report

UNWTO/UNEP cooperative effortUNWTO/UNEP cooperative effort

It is one of the 11 economic sectors to be included in the GER It is one of the 11 economic sectors to be included in the GER

Relevant messages: Relevant messages:

o To To GOVERNMENTSGOVERNMENTS: where, how and under what conditions investments in : where, how and under what conditions investments in sustainable tourism bring faster economic recovery, create high quality jobs sustainable tourism bring faster economic recovery, create high quality jobs and reduce poverty while also improving environmental outcomes.and reduce poverty while also improving environmental outcomes.

o To To BUSINESSESBUSINESSES: how and under what conditions such investments are at least : how and under what conditions such investments are at least as profitable as other investments.as profitable as other investments.

o To To SHAREHOLDERSSHAREHOLDERS: how and under what conditions green investments in : how and under what conditions green investments in sustainable tourism are likely to yield more stable/secure and even higher sustainable tourism are likely to yield more stable/secure and even higher returns.returns.

Structure of the Study

• Introduction

• Challenges and opportunities for the tourism sector:

The global economic crisis and its effects on tourism

Climate change and tourism

Tourism and Poverty alleviation

Tourism and protected areas

• State of Investment

• Scenarios of increased investment

• Financing

• Enabling Conditions

• Conclusions and Main Recommendations

Green Economy Report

INVESTMENT:

o Current Status of global investment in sustainable tourism

o What additional level of investment is required?

o By Whom? Why?

ECONOMY EFFECTS OF INCREASED

INVESTMENTS ON TOURISM:

Output

Jobs

Livelihood

Health

Poverty reduction

Environment

ENABLING CONDITIONS:

o Financing for sustainable tourism

o Barriers to tourism approaches and how to overcome them

o Other enabling conditions (trade policy, market access, standards, etc)

The Davos Process on Climate Change and Tourism

• With its close connections to the environment and climate itself, tourism is considered to be a highly climate-sensitive sector.

• Climate change is not a remote future event for tourism, as the varied impacts are becoming evident at destinations.

• Changing climate patterns might alter major tourism flows.

• Least developed countries and small island developing states might be particularly affected.

• Impacts of climate change on the tourism sector are expected to steadily intensify.

• At the same time, the tourism sector is a contributor to climate change; GHG emissions from transport and accommodation.

Tourism Climate change

Tourism Vulnerability ‘Hotspots’

Regional Knowledge Gaps

2015

• Millennium Development Goals

2007

• 2nd International Conference in Davos

• Ministerial Summit in London

• UNWTO General Assembly in Cartagena

• UN Climate Change Summit Bali

2008

• Seminar in Oxford

• Ministerial Meeting in London

• Conference in Egypt

• Workshop in Colombia

• UN Climate Conference in Poznan

2009

• Cagliari workshop for Mediterranean

• World Climate Conference-3 in Geneva

• Gothenburg Symposium

• UN Climate Change Summit in Copenhagen

2003

• First International Conference on Climate Change and Tourism in Djerba

The Davos Process on Climate Change and Tourism

From Davos to Bali

CC Adaptation & Mitigation

Adaptation and Mitigation in the Tourism sector

Low carbon travel

CC & Tourism. Djerba

T&T in the Green Economy

2009 Copenhagen MDG 2020 2050

CC and Tourism: Responding to Global Challenges

• Climate is a key tourism resource but tourism is also a contributor to climate change (5%)

• Tourism is a vital economic factor and contributor to the MGD

• Adopt urgent policies to encourage sustainable development: economic, social, environmental and climate change responsiveness

• How to do it? Mitigate emissions (transport and accommodation)

Adapt businesses and destinations to changing climate conditions

New technology

Help poorer regions adapting

Davos Declaration

Davos Declaration

Governments

• International Framework• Partnerships• Educate - Train - Monitor

Consumers

• Reduce Footprint• Choose Carbon Clean• Link to Conservation

Industry/Destinations

• Clean Energy• Design/Product• Tell Customers

Research/Media Nets

• Intensify Research• Mainstream Education• Promote Responsible Travel

• Tourism community will participate in the common effort led by the United Nations.

• Tourism is ready to take up its share of the burden in proportion with its contribution to climate change.

• However, do not unfairly target tourism! It is an activity as respectable as others, which satisfies needs that are just as essential.

• Tourism generates wealth, creates jobs and contributes to the alleviation of poverty.

• Poor countries will be doubly affected if we deprive them of the economic contribution of tourism.

UNWTO’s Message at Bali Climate Summit

The Davos Process has a shared ownership Its value resides in:

– Promoting, collecting and disseminate the tourism initiatives on climate change

– Ensuring cooperation and coherence– Providing added value and visibility to efforts made– Representing a wide range of public and private stakeholders– Place tourism in the “climate change map”        

The Davos Process

The Davos process is nurtured by a variety of initiatives :

– Energy Efficiency for the Tourism Industry (EETI) project

– The Caribsave partnership to address climate change impacts in the Caribbean

– The Maldives project on adaptation to Climate Change

– WTTC initiative  “ Leading the Challenge on Climate Change”

– WEF report  “ Towards a low carbon travel and tourism sector”

– ETC’s San Marino workshop and European NTO’s engagement

–  International Task Force on Sustainable Tourism. The Marrakech process

– The Global Sustainable Tourism Criteria  

The Davos Process

• International seminar, Oxford, United Kingdom, 7-10 April 2008

• Capacity building and pragmatic adaptation and mitigation techniques and methods for developing countries and small island states

• Organised and coordinated by UNEP, Oxford University (OUCE), UNWTO and WMO

• Some 30 high level tourism and environment officials from developing countries and Small Island developing states participated in the Seminar.

• This Report provides frameworks, tools and best practices for the tourism sector

Climate Change Adaptation and Mitigation: Frameworks, Tools and Practices

WMO

Excellence in Energy for the Tourism Industry Accommodation sector: SME hotels

Objectives• Increase use of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy Technologies

(EE & RET) by SME hotels in the European Union

• Strengthen hotel sector networks (e.g., National hotel associations, destination authorities, energy management agencies) for promotion of EE & RET in hotels

• Build better links between users in the hotel sector and EE & RET suppliers and manufacturers

• Stimulate innovation by manufacturers and suppliers of EE & RET to meet the needs of SME hotels

• Sensitise National and Local Authorities on adoption of suitable supporting measures, policies and incentives to encourage use of EE & RET by SME hotels

Implemented by UNWTO in cooperation with UNEP-DTIE, International Hotel and Restaurant Association (IH&RA), European Renewable Energy Council (EREC), French Environment and

Energy Management Agency (ADEME)Under negotiation with European Commission / EACI

Coastal Tourism in the Mediterranean: Adapting to Climate Change

(Cagliari, Italy, 8 to 10 June 2009)

• Designed for decision-makers and tourism experts

• Strengthen the capacities of the tourism sector players in the Mediterranean countries to fill the knowledge gap on tourism adaptation strategies

• Representatives from 16 Mediterranean countries

• Support the integration of climate change mitigation and adaptation measures in the national tourism development plans and strategies.

• Use of planning tools in coastal zones through exercises on Scenario Planning and Strategic Planning for Sustainable Tourism Development

• Field visit to southwest Sardinia:

• Rehabilitation of a natural dune system

• Example of the a resort that has implemented environmental management of the structure and eco-design

• Rehabilitation of a lighthouse through eco-architecture

Travel and Tourism in the Green Economy Symposium

(14 -15 September 2009, Gothenburg)

• Organized by the UNWTO, ETC, UNEP and the Swedish Government.

• Aimed at exploring the links between the Green Economy Initiative and the Davos Process on Climate Change and Tourism.

• Discussion panels:– Tourism going climate neutral– The travel industry, innovation and new technologies– Destinations: A sustainable approach– Towards a Green Economy – NTO challenges and

opportunities

• Focus on how sustainable tourism can contribute to the transformation to the Green Economy.

Mitigation strategies

Global Tourism Emissions in 2005: CO2 Only

Sub-Sectors CO2 (Mt)

Air transport * 522 40%

Car transport 418 32%

Other transport 39 3%

Accommodation 274 21%

Activities 52 4%

TOTAL 1,307

Total World (IPCC 2007) 26,400

Tourism Contribution 5%

Transportationof Tourists = 75%of Sector Emissions

* - does not include non-CO2 emissions and impact on climate

‘Business as Usual’ Projection ofFuture CO2 Emissions from Tourism*

* Excluding same-day visitors

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

3500

2005 2035

Mt

CO

2

Air Transport

Car Transport

Other Transport

Accommodation

Activities43%

26%

21%

53%

15%

24%

4% 7%

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

3500

Baseline ‘Business as

Usual‘

Technical

Efficiency

Modal-

Shift/Length of

Stay

Combined

Mt

CO

2

Future CO2 Emissions from Global Tourism:Scenarios of Mitigation Potential in 2035

* Excludes same-day tourists

2035*

2035 Mitigation Scenarios

-36%

-68%

-43%

2005*

◘ Reducing energy use / Conservation: » changing transport behaviour (e.g. shift to rail and coach instead of car

and aircraft, choosing closer destinations), changing management practices (e.g. videoconferencing for business tourism)

◘ Improving energy efficiency: » use technology to carrying out the same operation with a lower energy

input

◘ Use of renewable or carbon-neutral energy: » substitute fossil fuels with energy sources that are not finite and cause

lower emissions, such as biomass, hydro, wind, and solar energy

Mitigation options for the Tourism Sector

MITIGATION MEASURESLand Transport

- Cars contribute more than 80% emission of the land transport (but only 15%-20% for tourism purpose)

- Key emissions abatement options for car transport:

Development of more efficient vehicles. • Abatement potential up to 30% of emissions

Adoption of cleaner fuels. • Develop a very low emissions car powered by electricity, fuel cells or

hydrogen

Promoting changes to consumer behaviour reduction. • Up to 15% of carbon emissions could be reduced

Source: World Economic Forum Study: Towards a Low Carbon Travel & Tourism Sector

MITIGATION MEASURESAir Transport

- Acceleration of fleet renewal with more fuel efficient planes. • More than 11% of the current world fleet are older than 25 years.

• Possible abatement potential of CO2 saving: >7%

- Reduce infrastructure inefficiencies in airspace management.• Up to 12% of CO2 emissions can be reduced

- R&D innovation to develop new long-term technology which could further reduce emissions Airframe Technologies Engine Technologies Alternative Fuels

MITIGATION MEASURESWater Transport (Cruise ships)

- Operation & technical measures to reduce energy use

- Change of energy source to power cruise lines

Route optimization Cruise ship energy efficiency improvement Machine condition

Each measure has a carbon abatement potential around 7%. However this is not

cumulative due to interdependencies

MITIGATION MEASURESAccommodation

- Operational & technical measures to reduce energy use Insulation Building design for new buildings Building Energy Management System Change in room temperature

- Change in energy source

- Change in consumer behaviour

Solar Biomass / Bio-fuel Combined heat Power

Increased energy awareness: Incentives for customers:

Zion National Park Visitor Centre

Each measure has a carbon abatement potential around 7%. However this is not cumulative due to interdependencies

Tourism sector (mainly its transport and accommodation subsectors) should incorporate in their operations efficient energy use and management innovations to mitigate their GHG.

Tourism companies to design mid and long term plans with meaningful targets, realistic and credible.

Tourism’s economic, social and development benefits need to be communicated and positively perceived, so as not to penalize tourism in comparison with other sectors.

Tourism stakeholders should partner rather than compete.

Preparing for Copenhagen and beyond

Awareness raising and information for the tourism sector on the impacts of climate change.

Capacity building for adaptation at destinations.

Analyse and apply mitigation measures along the supply chain of the tourism sector.

Contribute to reach the objectives of reducing GHG emissions generated by the sector, in the framework of the collaborative action of the United Nations.

Continue the investigation on impacts, adaptation and mitigation aiming to improve the specific knowledge and develop methods to tackle the complex challenges related to climate change.

The Way Forward

2050

2012

20152020

2009

•Stabilize by 2050•Start Now 2020 targets•Common but differentiated

•Stabilize by 2050•Start Now 2020 targets•Common but differentiated

•Adapt / Mitigate• Technology / Finance• Conservation

•Adapt / Mitigate• Technology / Finance• Conservation

• Carbon Price • Tax• Incentivise• Regulate

• Carbon Price • Tax• Incentivise• Regulate

• Reward Innovation• Transfer Technology• Boost Investment

• Reward Innovation• Transfer Technology• Boost Investment

Thank youwww.unwto.org/sdt