２００９．０３．１８＠OakRidge

Sustainability and Sustainability and High-end Super-ComputingAkimasaSumiIntegrated System for Sustaqinability Science(IR3S)Sustaqinability Science(IR3S)Transdisciplinary Initiative for Global Sustainability(TIGS)The University of Tokyo

Sustainabilityy

• 20th Century was an age of wars and l i f thi !explosion of everything!

▫ For example, energy supply, food, steel d ti b d k l dproduction, garbage and knowledge

• 21th Century should be an age of peace d t i bilit !and sustainability !

360

380

爆発の時代CO2

320

340

360代

Age of Explosion

oil

8

109

Nuclear

Hydro 20280

300

1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 200

Explosion

n to

nnes

, qu

ival

ent)

4

65

87

Natural Gas

Coal

Oil

20X 人口

70億

(bill

ion

eq

2

4

1

30億

1900

1920

1940

1960

1980

2000

0

Sources: UN Statistical Yearbook, BP Statistical Review of the World Energy

２０００１９００

Our knowledge was accumulated through battle to evilsthrough battle to evils

• Meteorology Storm• Medicine Diseases

fli b l• Law Conflict between people

Modern evil is

• Global WarmingP• Poverty

• Loss of meaning of life• Terrorism• Complex and multi-discipline!

Linkages among three systems6

Global systemGlobal systemGlobal systemGlobal system

Climate systemClimate systemEnergy and ResourcesEnergy and Resources

EcosystemEcosystem

Climate systemClimate systemEnergy and ResourcesEnergy and Resources

EcosystemEcosystemLow-Carbon Human Security

SocietySecurity

Global warming infectious diseasesnatural disasterComplexComplex

Social systemSocial systemSocial systemSocial system Human systemHuman systemHuman systemHuman system

natural disaster

Mass production

Complex ProblemComplex Problem

PoliticsEconomyIndustry

PoliticsEconomyIndustry

Security/SafetyLifestyleHealth

Security/SafetyLifestyleHealth

Mass production, consumption, destruction

TechnologyTechnology Norms and valuesNorms and values

Resource-circulating society

Transdisciplinary approach 7

Physics, Chemistry, Biology

Ecology, Earth Sc

G

Ecology, Earth Sc・・・

Global system

Social system

Human system

Amount of WasteLifestyles

Sustainability Science fusesSustainability Science fuses Natural and Social Sciences with indicators

In the 19th and the 20th century, our knowledge was accumulated by knowledge was accumulated by

• Science is toward horizontal structure.• Microscope and Telescope are contributed to p p

expansion of our knowledge.

Tools

• Expansion of our view in space-time domainSpace domain• Space-domain

• Microscop• Telescope• Telescope• Expansion of our view in space-time domain• Simulation by modsels• Simulation by modsels

In the 21st century,y

• Issues are in the spacial and temporal domain.We need a tool to survey this 4 dimensional • We need a tool to survey this 4-dimensional space.

• Relation between space and time is a law• Relation between space and time is a law.• Numerical models are another new tools to

survey issues in the 4-dimensional space.y 4 p

Recent Trend of HPC

• From Tera to peta: approx.10 years• the 10 peta (Japan) : 10 years• One order rise up ・・・・ 3 yearsOne order rise up 3 years• Exa scale computing ・・・ 2018

around• Peta scale computing

h l h・・・the real thing• With rapid innovation,

Exa-scale computing ・・・ expected to be real in near ・・・ expected to be real in near future ・・・by 2015?

The Earth Simulator ProjectThe Earth Simulator Project

• 1998-2002• Remarkable impacts p

to super-computer world!

• CRAY revived!CTL:Cartridge Tape Library system

Magnetic Disk systemN C b (65)PN ElectromagneticIN Cabinets (65)PN

Cabinets (320) Double Floor for

Power Supply systeAir Conditioning system

Electromagnetic

w upp y y

Seismic Isolation s

Air Conditioning system

The CCSR/NIES/FRCGC Coupled O A h GCM f h E h Ocean-Atmosphere GCM for the Earth Simulator: MIROC 3.2

High-resolution version

Atmos: T106 (～1.1o ) L56 Ocean: 1/4

o x1/6

oL48( )

for regional as well as global climate change and extreme events

Medium-resolution versionAtmos: T42 (～2.8

o ) L20 Ocean: 1.4

o x(0.5

o-1.4

o ) L44Atmos: T42 ( 2.8 ) L20 Ocean: 1.4 x(0.5 1.4 ) L44

for many scenarios, ensembles and climate sensitivity issues …

Hi-CGCM: a pilot 40-yr integrationHi CGCM: a pilot 40 yr integration

Icosahedral gridsIcosahedral gridsOriginal Icosahedron

Glevel-0Glevel-9: Δx=14kmGlevel-10: Δx=7kmG 11 Δ 3

Glevel-1 Glevel-3 Glevel-5

Glevel-11: Δx=3.5km

Glevel 3 Glevel 5

Apr. 2004 short term exp.p p

NICAM 3.5km GMS/GOESNICAM 3.5km

Summaryy

• Strong demand about the future climate and environment!environment!

• Only simulation can do this job.• Huge demand for computation and high-end • Huge demand for computation and high end

computer!• “Easy to maintain” Codey• Efficient Code • Dialogue between climate scientists and g

computer scientists is critical.