Sustainability a path to Peace FINAL 11122015
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Transcript of Sustainability a path to Peace FINAL 11122015
Peace Center Thursday November 12, 2015
by
Tony Green
"Sustainability as a path to peace: How to prevent future wars over our water
supply”
Copyright @ Tony Green 2015
Agenda
1. Is water the next oil?2. The key to our livelihood 3. Water Scarcity4. And its associated problems5. How has it come to this?6. Have we come to blows over water?7. Where there is conflict there is resolution but at a price 8. The solutions are….9. The choice is ours
Copyright @ Tony Green 2015
Water – essential for human survival – is also necessary for nearly every sector of human activity, including agriculture, industrial production and power generation, and as a key means for transporting people and goods.
Copyright @ Tony Green 2015
Less than one percent of the Earth’s drinkable water is readily accessible for direct human uses.
Earth’s surface is covered by 71% waterEssential for life – can survive only a few days without water
By 2030, 47 percent of the world’s population will be living in areas of high “water stress.”
http://www.centralia.edu/academics/envscience/envs100Hueckel/envs150N/chap09.ppt. http://peoplestribune.org/pt-news/2015/05/water-is-a-human-right/
Copyright @ Tony Green 2015
Copyright @ Tony Green 2015
Water Scarcity
http://www.centralia.edu/academics/envscience/envs100Hueckel/envs150N/chap09.ppt
Small fraction (.014%) is readily available for human use
Water Scarcity
Copyright @ Tony Green 2015
https://www.ied.edu.hk/esdweb/aids/water.ppt
Water Scarcity
Copyright @ Tony Green 2015
http://www.slideshare.net/LisaMartinez78247/water-presentation-final-ppt
More than one out of six people lack access to safe drinking water
More than two out of six lack adequate sanitation
3900 children die every day from water-borne diseases
Global Population
Copyright @ Tony Green 2015
As of 9:00 A.M, P.S.T. November 7
7,379,526,826http://www.worldometers.info/world-population/
80% probability 9.6 billion
and 12.3 billion by 2050Source: the guardian.com
Growing by 1.18 % per
year, or an additional
83 million people
annually. Source: United Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs/Population Division 1World Population Prospects: The 2015 Revision, Key Findings and Advance Tables
Water Use and Source Contradiction
Copyright @ Tony Green 2015
Population and water distribution don’t always correspond, often leaving highly populated regions with little access to
water.
Asia which has to support 60% of the world population with only 36% of the worlds water.
The Middle East which has to support 5% of the world population with only 1% of the worlds renewable water
sources.Source: http://www.princeton.edu/~ina/infographics/water.html
Source: Water Wars by Diane Raines Ward
History
Copyright @ Tony Green 2015
“Most of the major rivers in Europe and water, generally
speaking, have been used as boundaries between countries
throughout history”
Possible end result?
Copyright @ Tony Green 2015
Two main factors for water shortage: dry climate and too many people. Many people live in hydro poverty – can’t afford clean water
“Fierce competition for fresh water may well become a source of conflict & wars in the future.” Kofi Annan, March 2001
"Many people think that in the middle east is water and not oil will be the source of the next wars" Allan Hammond, World Resources Institute
Copyright @ Tony Green 2015
http://www.nytimes.com/2006/08/23/opinion/23ihtedwatkins. 2570814.html?_r=0&pagewanted=print
Possible end result?
Have we come to blows?In the past 50 years there have been 1,821 instances of water related interactions between countries,
The vast majority 1,228 ended peacefully.
Only 21 involved actual military violence (18 between Israel and its neighbors).
http://www.princeton.edu/~ina/infographics/water.htmlCopyright @ Tony Green 2015
Despite this gloomy scenario, war is unlikely, according to
history: no nations have gone to war specifically
over water resources for thousands of years.
In The End…
Source : Water, Conflict, and Cooperation: Lessons From the Nile River Basin By Patricia Kameri-Mbote
DOES NOT MEAN THE POSSIBILITY DOES NOT EXIST
FOR WARS IN THE FUTURE
Copyright @ Tony Green 2015
Lake Chad
Copyright @ Tony Green 2015
When it was full, Lake Chad was the sixth largest lake in the world.
But now due to the declining rain fall and ever intensifying human use it has shrunk to 1/20 of its original sizeSource: Al Gore’s an inconvenient truth Page 117
Lake Chad
Copyright @ Tony Green 2015
When Nigerian fisherman followed the receding water
into neighboring Cameroon hey sparked military fire fights and
international legal disputes. When farmers began to till the
former lake bottom battles over property rights erupted.
Source: Al Gore’s an inconvenient truth Page 117
Israel
Copyright @ Tony Green 2015 http://www.oilempire.us/water.html
Six day war of 1967
Before it ended Israel had annexed the Golan heights; it took the West Bank from Jordan along with one third of the kingdom most fertile land and it seized Gaza from Egypt. All of it secured precious water for Israel.
Arab league angered at Israel construction of its National Water Carrier, which appropriated much of the water of the Jordan River for use in Israel
Nile River
Copyright @ Tony Green 2015
Egypt and Sudan hold absolute rights to use 100 percent of the river’s water under agreements reached in 1929 between Egypt and Britain.
Of all the world’s water-deprived regions, none encompasses more conflicts ongoing and potential than the lands along the Nile.
Two-Thirds of the African population threatened by
water scarcity and famine.
Ethiopia has 84 percent of the Nile gushing out of its gorges.
Except Egypt none are wealthy enough to build large water projects without foreign and technical help.
India and Pakistan
Copyright @ Tony Green 2015
India
Pakistan
The Indus
The Indus flows from Himlayanmountains in Tibet in China to the
Arabian Sea
Shared by India and Pakistan, at the time of partition (when English rule ceased and India and Pakistan were
carved up)
India cut off water in 1948. Pakistan protested; Indian stance was Pakistan should accept Indian rights over water
Pakistan refused
Solutions - Desalination
Source: dreamstme.comSource: ITT Water Equipment Technologies & Flowtronex ITT Flowtronex
Copyright @ Tony Green 2015
Solutions – Fog Harvesting
Copyright @ Tony Green 2015
Takes advantage of the water vapor which is in the air we breathe which we normally cannot see
Solutions – Fog Harvesting
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http://www.fogquest.org/project-information/current-projects/
Solutions – Indus Water Treaty of 1960
Copyright @ Tony Green 2015
http://inweh.unu.edu/wp-content/uploads/2015/09/Water-Cooperation-Views-on-Progress-and-the-Way-Forward.pdf
.
Solutions – Trilateral Water Institute
Copyright @ Tony Green 2015
http://inweh.unu.edu/wp-content/uploads/2015/09/Water-Cooperation-Views-on-Progress-and-the-Way-Forward.pdf
Solutions – 1994 Peace Treaty
Copyright @ Tony Green 2015
http://inweh.unu.edu/wp-content/uploads/2015/09/Water-Cooperation-Views-on-Progress-and-the-Way-Forward.pdf
Solutions – Interstate Commission for Water Coordination of Central Asia
Copyright @ Tony Green 2015
http://inweh.unu.edu/wp-content/uploads/2015/09/Water-Cooperation-Views-on-Progress-and-the-Way-Forward.pdf
Solutions – Nile Basin Initiative
Copyright @ Tony Green 2015
Source : Global Issues Seminar Series January 25, 2006 The Global Water Challenge:Poverty, Growth & International Relations
Tie In to Sustainability?
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http://sustainability.tufts.edu/wp-content/uploads/Sustainabilityvenndiagram.pdf
Remember the Price
Copyright @ Tony Green 2015
A Soldier’s Last Words: I am sorry that it has come to this
We should demand an end to the abuse of military members and a return to a foreign policy that promotes peace and prosperity instead of war and poverty. – Congressman Ron Paul
“A drop of water is the basis for living, andwithout it there can be no development
and no peace”
- Fadel Kawash – Former Palestinian Commissioner for the West Bank
Copyright @ Tony Green 2015