Tuesday, October 14, 2014 For Private Circulation Only

MAJOR CURRENCIES Currency Expiry High Low Close Change

USDINR Spot 61.3 60.995 60.995 -0.28

USDINR Oct 61.5625 61.275 61.31 -0.22

EURINR Spot 77.68 77.19 77.28 -0.06

EURINR Oct 78.04 77.75 77.7975 -0.14

GBPINR Spot 98.804 97.891 98.098 -0.39

GBPINR Oct 99.11 98.68 98.73 -0.05

JPYINR Spot 57.22 56.72 57.06 0.17

JPYINR Oct 57.18 56.76 57.145 -0.02

News & Development

China’s exports rose 15.3 percent in September from a year earlier,

beating a median forecast in a Reuters poll for a rise of 11.8

percent and quickening from August's 9.4 percent rise.

India's annual consumer price inflation eased for a second straight

month in September to 6.46 percent, its lowest level since the

government started releasing the data in 2012, government data

showed on Monday.

US DOLLAR INDEX

The dollar index, a gauge of the greenback's value against six major

currencies, was down 0.4 percent to 85.53 on Monday on persisting

concerns about global economic growth and worries that the Federal

Reserve may delay its first interest rate hike.

USDINR

The Indian rupee started the week on a winning note after stronger-

than-expected China trade data lifted risk appetite for emerging market

assets by easing some of the recent concerns about the global

economy.

Data on Monday showed China's exports in September grew more than

the market expected, while imports surprisingly expanded, alleviating

worries about deteriorating domestic demand in the world's second-

largest economy.

Outlook

USDINR is likely to trade on the negative note on the back of easing

domestic inflation in the month of September.

MAJOR INDICES Index Close Change % Change

DJIA 16321 -223.03 -1.35%

NASDAQ 3808 -62.86 -1.62%

DAX 8812 23.62 0.27%

FTSE 6366 26.27 0.41%

HANGSN 23143 54.84 0.24%

NIKKIE 15301 -178.38 -1.15%

SENSEX 26384 86.69 0.33%

DOLLEX 85.53 -0.38 -0.44%

Investments (EQUITY) – 13th Oct, 2014 (In Rs. Crores)

BUY SELL Net Investment

FII 2480.59 3151.65 -671.06

DII 1618.85 1052.02 566.83

Technical Outlook

USDINR Strategy S2 S1 Close R1 R2

Oct Sell @ R1 61.05 61.20 61.31 61.40 61.55

*Investors can use S2/R2 as Stop Loss/Target depending upon the strategy advised

Page 2

CURRENCY DAILY

EURINR

The euro was last up 0.5 percent against the U.S. dollar at $1.2690, just

below a session high of $1.2699.

France faced intensifying pressure from euro zone peers on Monday to

tighten spending next year amid a growing rift over its plans to flout

European budget rules.

The dispute with France over its planned 2015 budget is a test of new

euro zone powers to police public finances and is complicated by a wider

debate about how to use government money to help the stagnating

European economy.

The German government has no plans to abandon its target of reaching a

zero public deficit next year, Chancellor Angela Merkel's spokesman said

on Monday in comments echoed by leaders of her coalition.

Outlook

We expect EURINR to trade on the mixed note as weak European

economic data could put pressure on Euro and easing domestic inflation

in the month of September would put pressure on the EUR.

Technical Outlook

EURINR Strategy S2 S1 Close R1 R2

Oct Sell @ R1 77.55 77.70 77.79 77.95 78.10

*Investors can use S2/R2 as Stop Loss/Target depending upon the strategy advised

GBPINR

Britain's anti-EU UK Independence Party (UKIP) could be included for

the first time in a high-profile televised leaders' debate ahead of next

May's general election, under a proposal put forward by broadcasters

for political approval on Monday.

UKIP leader Nigel Farage, whose party won its first ever elected

parliamentary seat last week, have been be invited to take part in one

of three debates which are likely to define the poltical agenda ahead of

the vote.

British high-street spending recorded its biggest monthly fall in years

last month as supermarkets continued to cut prices and warm weather

dissuaded shoppers from buying new winter clothes.

The British Retail Consortium said total retail spending was 0.8 percent

lower this September than a year ago, the steepest annual drop since

April 2012 and a sharp contrast to August's robust growth of 2.7

percent.

Outlook

We expect GBPINR to trade on the negative note on the back of easing

domestic inflation in the month of September and weak economic data

from UK.

Technical Outlook

GBPINR Strategy S2 S1 Close R1 R2

Oct Sell @ R1 98.30 98.50 98.73 98.90 99.10

*Investors can use S2/R2 as Stop Loss/Target depending upon the strategy advised

Page 3

CURRENCY DAILY

DATE TIME (IST)

COUNTRY ECONOMIC DATA CONSENSUS PREVIOUS IMPACT

Tue, Oct 14 14th-15th China New Loans 750B 703B Medium

2:00pm UK CPI y/y 1.40% 1.50% High

2:00pm UK PPI Input m/m -0.40% -0.60% Medium

2:00pm UK RPI y/y 2.30% 2.40% Medium

2:30pm EUR German ZEW Economic Sentiment 0.2 6.9 High

2:30pm EUR Industrial Production m/m -1.50% 1.00% Medium

2:30pm EUR ZEW Economic Sentiment 7.1 14.2 Medium

All Day EUR ECOFIN Meetings Medium

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Ashish Shah Tejas Nikhar Mohit Agarwal

AVP ashish.shah@sushilfinance.com

Sr. Research Analyst tejas.nikhar@sushilfinance.com

Research Analyst mohit.agarwal@sushilfinance.com

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