Sushil Finance's Daily Commodity Update - Sushil Finance

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Tuesday, October 14, 2014 For Private Circulation Only MAJOR COMMODITIES Commodity Expiry High Low Close Change Commodity Expiry High Low Close ($) Change Gold 5-Dec 27246 26940 26972 8 Gold (Oz) Dec 1238.00 1223.60 1230.00 8.30 Silver 5-Dec 39039 38280 38336 -176 Silver (Oz) Dec 17.68 17.28 17.35 0.04 Crude Oil 20-Oct 5278 5151 5219 -65 Crude Oil Nov 85.87 84.07 85.74 -0.08 Natural Gas 28-Oct 238.60 234.70 237.80 1.80 Natural Gas Nov 3.93 3.82 3.92 0.06 Copper 28-Nov 414.50 411.50 413.30 -1.10 Copper 3M 6737.00 6670.00 6737.00 32.00 Nickel 31-Oct 1016.80 1003.20 1005.00 -1.60 Nickel 3M 16645.00 16375.00 16510.00 90.00 Aluminium 31-Oct 117.95 117.00 117.65 0.05 Aluminium 3M 1949.00 1922.25 1945.75 9.25 Lead 31-Oct 127.70 125.90 126.05 -0.45 Lead 3M 2088.75 2055.50 2069.75 4.75 Zinc 31-Oct 142.65 141.65 142.10 -0.40 Zinc 3M 2337.75 2315.00 2334.25 5.75 News & Development China exports rose 15.3 percent in September from a year earlier, beating a median forecast in a Reuters poll for a rise of 11.8 percent and quickening from August's 9.4 percent rise, data showed on Monday. China Imports rose 7 percent in terms of value, compared with a Reuters estimate for a 2.7 percent fall, which would have marked their third consecutive decline. Iron ore imports rebounded to the second highest this year and monthly crude oil imports rose to the second highest on record. As a result, China posted a trade surplus of $31.0 billion in September, down from $49.8 billion in August. Saudi Arabia has privately told oil market participants it can accept oil prices between $80 and $90 a barrel, sources briefed by OPEC's biggest producer told Reuters. India's annual consumer price inflation eased for a second straight month in September to 6.46 percent, its lowest level since the government started releasing the data in 2012, government data showed on Monday. (Source: Reuters)

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Sushil Finance present their daily update on the commodity markets. Read about the latest commodity news, outlook and technical strategies on Gold, Silver, Crude Oil.

Transcript of Sushil Finance's Daily Commodity Update - Sushil Finance

Page 1: Sushil Finance's Daily Commodity Update - Sushil Finance

Tuesday, October 14, 2014 For Private Circulation Only

MAJOR COMMODITIES

Commodity Expiry High Low Close Change

Commodity Expiry High Low Close ($) Change

Gold 5-Dec 27246 26940 26972 8

Gold (Oz) Dec 1238.00 1223.60 1230.00 8.30

Silver 5-Dec 39039 38280 38336 -176

Silver (Oz) Dec 17.68 17.28 17.35 0.04

Crude Oil 20-Oct 5278 5151 5219 -65

Crude Oil Nov 85.87 84.07 85.74 -0.08

Natural Gas 28-Oct 238.60 234.70 237.80 1.80

Natural Gas Nov 3.93 3.82 3.92 0.06

Copper 28-Nov 414.50 411.50 413.30 -1.10

Copper 3M 6737.00 6670.00 6737.00 32.00

Nickel 31-Oct 1016.80 1003.20 1005.00 -1.60

Nickel 3M 16645.00 16375.00 16510.00 90.00

Aluminium 31-Oct 117.95 117.00 117.65 0.05

Aluminium 3M 1949.00 1922.25 1945.75 9.25

Lead 31-Oct 127.70 125.90 126.05 -0.45

Lead 3M 2088.75 2055.50 2069.75 4.75

Zinc 31-Oct 142.65 141.65 142.10 -0.40

Zinc 3M 2337.75 2315.00 2334.25 5.75

News & Development

China exports rose 15.3 percent in September from a year earlier, beating a median forecast in a Reuters poll for a rise of 11.8

percent and quickening from August's 9.4 percent rise, data showed on Monday.

China Imports rose 7 percent in terms of value, compared with a Reuters estimate for a 2.7 percent fall, which would have marked

their third consecutive decline. Iron ore imports rebounded to the second highest this year and monthly crude oil imports rose to

the second highest on record.

As a result, China posted a trade surplus of $31.0 billion in September, down from $49.8 billion in August.

Saudi Arabia has privately told oil market participants it can accept oil prices between $80 and $90 a barrel, sources briefed by

OPEC's biggest producer told Reuters.

India's annual consumer price inflation eased for a second straight month in September to 6.46 percent, its lowest level since the

government started releasing the data in 2012, government data showed on Monday.

(Source: Reuters)

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Commodity Daily

Gold

Gold rose on Monday as the dollar fell on uncertainty about global economic growth, while the prospect of more economic stimulus from China increased bullion's investment appeal. The yellow metal posted its fifth rise in the past six sessions after the dollar index fell on growth concerns and worries the U.S. Federal Reserve may wait longer to hike interest rates. Last week, the greenback notched its biggest weekly loss in six months. Also underpinning gold was Chinese economic data for the third quarter suggesting the economy likely grew at its weakest pace in more than five years. Investors speculated Beijing might roll out more stimulus measures. Gold got a boost from a strong rebound in Chinese imports of industrial commodities in September. Meanwhile, holdings in SPDR Gold Trust, the world's largest gold-backed exchange-traded fund and a proxy for market sentiment, fell 2.64 tonnes on Friday to 759.44 tonnes, its lowest since December 2008.

Outlook

We expect gold prices are likely to trade sideways on the back of mixed cues from Global economy.

Technical Outlook

Gold Strategy S2 S1 Close R1 R2

Dec Sideways 26850 26950 26972 27070 27150

*Investors can use S2/R2 as Stop Loss/Target depending upon the strategy advised

Silver Silver inched up 1 cent to $17.35 an ounce. Concerns over the health of overseas economies continued in the wake of last week's weak German economic data and the International Monetary Fund's cut to its global growth forecast, and strengthened the euro and Japanese yen against the dollar. And Fed officials said on Saturday that a slowdown in the global economy could hamper a tightening of U.S. monetary policy. Many currency traders anticipate that a Fed hike in short-term interest rates will boost the dollar by driving investment flows into the United States.

Outlook We expect Silver prices are likely to trade sideways on the back of mixed cues from Global economy.

Technical Outlook

Silver Strategy S2 S1 Close R1 R2

Dec Sideways 37700 38200 38336 38600 39100

*Investors can use S2/R2 as Stop Loss/Target depending upon the strategy advised

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Commodity Daily

Crude Oil Brent oil prices fell on Monday, tumbling more than $2 a barrel intraday to their lowest since 2010, after key Middle East producers signaled they would keep output high even if that meant lower prices. Brent oil prices have tanked by nearly 25 percent since June as ample supply coincided with weak demand, raising the possibility that the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) could cut output. But Saudi Arabia has privately told oil market participants it can accept oil prices between $80 and $90 a barrel, sources briefed by OPEC's biggest producer told Reuters. Kuwait's oil minister said OPEC was unlikely to cut production to support prices. OPEC ministers will meet to discuss output policy Nov. 27. U.S. crude CLc1 fell 8 cents to settle at $85.74 a barrel, having recovered from an intraday low of $84.07. The spread between the two grades narrowed, falling to less than $3 after regular trading, the lowest since Oct. 7. One trader said the gap had narrowed because of profit taking on the spread, while a second trader said it was due to global growth. Both struggled to identify why the spread had narrowed late Monday.

Outlook

We expect crude oil prices to trade on negative note as ample supply and Saudi’s willingness to accept Crude prices at current levels are likely to put pressure on Crude prices.

Technical Outlook

Crude Oil Strategy S2 S1 Close R1 R2

Oct Sell @ R1 5160 5190 5219 5240 5270

*Investors can use S2/R2 as Stop Loss/Target depending upon the strategy advised

Natural Gas U.S. natural gas futures gained 1.5 percent on Monday on forecasts for cooler weather expected to boost heating demand in the East next week, despite forecasts for much warmer than normal temperatures this week. MDA Weather Services forecast unseasonably warm autumn weather in the U.S. Northeast and Mid-Atlantic over the next five days before cooler air takes over the eastern half of the country starting over the weekend. The U.S. National Hurricane Center does not expect any tropical systems to threaten the oil- and gas-rich U.S. Gulf of Mexico over the next five days. There are, however, a couple of tropical storms and a disturbance in the Atlantic - Fay is moving east toward Africa. Gonzalo is expected to turn northeast toward Bermuda after crossing the Virgin Islands, and the disturbance is expected to move northeast between Bermuda and the Azores over the next five days.

Outlook We expect Natural gas prices to trade on negative note on the back of forecast unseasonably warm autumn weather over the next five days.

Technical Outlook

Nat Gas Strategy S2 S1 Close R1 R2

Oct Sell @ R1 233 236 237.8 239 242

*Investors can use S2/R2 as Stop Loss/Target depending upon the strategy advised

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Commodity Daily

LME Inventories Copper Lead Zinc Aluminium Nickel

Current Stock 151225 225650 729025 4545700 368364

Change 1575 700 -2650 -8625 1230

% Change 1.05% 0.31% -0.36% -0.19% 0.34%

Base Metals Copper and other base metals prices rose on Monday after the dollar fell and better-than-expected Chinese trade data eased fears of a slowdown in demand in the top commodities consumer. A surge in China's exports in September was an upbeat signal for the world's second-largest economy while a near 15 percent jump in copper imports cheered investors about metals demand. Imports of raw material copper ores and concentrate jumped 34.4 percent from the previous month in September, hitting a record 1.29 million tonnes, the data showed. Many analysts are expecting the copper market to go into surplus due to higher mine output this year. China's surprisingly strong trade performance in September may reduce the chances of aggressive policy action such as an interest rate cut, but the prospects of a prolonged property slump suggests more measures are still needed to shore up the economy, economists said. The world's biggest copper producer Codelco apparently had a neutral view on the market, having offered 2015 copper term premiums at $112 a tonne for customers in Europe, unchanged from this year, two sources with direct knowledge of the offer said on Monday.

Outlook We expect base metal prices to trade mostly on negative note on fading expectation of more stimulus measures in China.

Technical Outlook

Nov/Oct Strategy S2 S1 Close R1 R2

Copper Sell @ R1 409 411 413.3 415 417

Nickel Sell @ R1 990 999 1005 1016 1023

Alum Sideways 116 116.7 117.6 118 119

Lead Sell @ R1 124.5 125.5 126.0 127 128

Zinc Buy @ S1 139.8 141 142.1 142.8 143.7

*Investors can use S2/R2 as Stop Loss/Target depending upon the strategy advised

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Commodity Daily

DATE TIME (IST) COUNTRY ECONOMIC DATA CONSENSUS PREVIOUS IMPACT

Tue, Oct 14 14th-15th China New Loans 750B 703B Medium

2:00pm UK CPI y/y 1.40% 1.50% High

2:00pm UK PPI Input m/m -0.40% -0.60% Medium

2:00pm UK RPI y/y 2.30% 2.40% Medium

2:30pm EUR German ZEW Economic Sentiment 0.2 6.9 High

2:30pm EUR Industrial Production m/m -1.50% 1.00% Medium

2:30pm EUR ZEW Economic Sentiment 7.1 14.2 Medium

All Day EUR ECOFIN Meetings Medium

Source: Forex Factory

For Further Assistance Contact: - 022-40934000

Ashish Shah Tejas Nikhar Mohit Agarwal AVP

[email protected] Sr. Research Analyst

[email protected] Research Analyst

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