Survey of Serbian Public Opinion - IRI must undergo major reforms and must change its approach to...
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Survey of Serbian Public Opinion November 24 – December 3, 2015
Transcript of Survey of Serbian Public Opinion - IRI must undergo major reforms and must change its approach to...
Survey of Serbian Public Opinion
November 24 – December 3, 2015
Detailed Methodology
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• The survey was conducted on behalf of the International Republican Institute by Ipsos Strategic Marketing.
• Data was collected between November 24 – December 3, 2015 through face-to-face interviews.
• The total number of interviews was 1,449 with an oversample of 533 collected in Vojvodina province.
• Margin of Error: 95 percent confidence level: Total population (n=1,449) plus or minus 2.82 percent; Vojvodina (n=533)
plus or minus 4.65 percent.
• The sample was made up of Serbian residents, age 18 years and older. Regions included in the sample are Belgrade,
Vojvodina province, East Serbia, West Serbia, Central Serbia, South Serbia and included both urban and rural inhabitants.
Areas of the population excluded from the sample: Inhabitants of poorly accessible, remote parts of the country,
approximately 1.6 percent of population.
• The sample design was a multi-stage, random sample.
• Stage One: Primary sampling unit – territory of polling places (Proportional to population size, cumulative selection
– Lachirie method) – number of sampling points 185 (seven to eight respondents per sampling points).
• Stage Two: Secondary sampling unit – household (Sample random sampling, systematic sample with random choice
of the starting point and equal steps of choice.
• Stage Three: Tertiary sampling unit – respondent (Sample determined via the Kish Scheme, a random sampling
method that uses a table of random numbers to identify the person within a household to be interviewed).
• Figures in charts and tables may not add to 100 percent due to rounding error and/or multiple choice answers.
• The survey was funded by the U.S. Agency for International Development.
Support for Membership inEuropean Union Continues to Decline
Do you support the Serbia’s membership in the European Union?
43%
33%
9% 10%5%
41%
29%
12% 12%
6%
36%33%
12%15%
4%
32%29%
14%
20%
6%
34% 34%
12%
17%
2%
23%
31%
17%
25%
4%
20%
29%
19%
25%
7%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
Yes, Fully Yes, Somewhat No, Mainly Not at All Don't Know/No Answer
October 2009 August 2010 April 2011 March 2012 February 2014 July 2015 November 2015
4
October ‘09:
August ’10:
April ‘11:
March ‘12:
February ‘14:
July ‘15:
November ‘15:
76%
71%
69%
61%
68%
54%
49%
October ‘09:
August ’10:
April ‘11:
March ‘12:
February ‘14:
July ‘15:
November ‘15:
19%
23%
27%
34%
30%
42%
44%
In your opinion, will your personal life be positively affected by Serbia’s European Union membership?
15%
12%
36%
37%
45%
45%
4%
6%
July 2015
November 2015
0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%
Yes, Very Much Yes, but Not Much No, Not at All Don't Know/No Answer
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If a referendum on Serbia's membership in the European Union were held this Sunday, how would you vote?
64%
17% 16%
4%
55%
24%
15%
6%
60%
21%
14%
4%
46%
28%
21%
6%
44%
32%
18%
6%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
Vote for Membership Vote againstMembership
I Would Not Vote at All Don't Know/No Answer
April 2011 March 2012 February 2014 July 2015 November 2015
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What is the reason you would vote against / wouldn’t vote at all on the European Union referendum?
7
38%
35%
19%
20%
38%
32%
5%
13%
July 2015
November 2015
0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%
I don't believe in values that EU integration brings.
I'm fed up with pressure we receive in order to enter EU.
After the experience with Greece and Spain, I don’t trust that EU membership will bring us any good.
Don't Know/No Answer
(Those who would vote against/ wouldn’t vote at all on the EU referendum July n=687, November n=739)
How much do you associate the following with the European Union?
48%
41%
34%
33%
32%
29%
35%
32%
27%
29%
16%
19%
23%
30%
32%
34%
35%
35%
37%
40%
41%
51%
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%
Protection of Sovereignty/Independence
Promotion of Right Values
Economic Growth
Fighting Crime and Corruption
Promotion of Wrong Values
Source of Money/Aid
A Better Life
More Jobs
Protecting Human Rights
Loss of Sovereignty/Independence
Costly
Does Not Associate (1+2) Associate (4+5)
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I will read three statements to you…I would like you to tell me which one is the closest to your own opinion.
19%
47%
25%
9%
Serbia must pass a few reforms to join the EU, but this will be a minor process and then Serbia can enter the EU.
Serbia must undergo major reforms and must change its approach to everything to enter the EU.
Serbia doesn't have to undergo any major reforms as a condition to enter the EU.
Don't Know/No Answer
9
Are these major reforms realistic to happen in Serbia?
44%
45%
11%
Yes No Don't Know/No Answer
10
(Those who think that Serbia must undergo major reforms and must change its approach to everything to enter the European Union, n=681)
Would you say it’s because:
11
2%
21%
30%
47%
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50%
Don't Know/No Answer
The reforms are doable, but there is nopolitical will to do them
The reforms are simply too big forcurrent or any future government to
implement
Society as a whole is not ready tosupport any painful processes whichthese kind of reforms would carry
(Those who think that these major reforms are not realistic to happen in Serbia, n=303)
Society as a whole is not ready to support any
painful processes which these reforms would carry.
The reforms are simply too big for current or any
future government to implement.
The reforms are doable, but there is no political
will to do them.
Don't Know/No Answer
Have you followed news about the latest Brussels agreement concerning Kosovo issues?
36%
64%
Yes No
12
What is your general impression; is the agreement in favor of Serbia or not?
13
(Those who followed news about the latest Brussels agreement concerning Kosovo issues, n=519)
44%
45%
12%
Yes, It Is in Favor of Serbia No, It Is Not in Favor of Serbia Don't Know/No Answer
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Do you believe that Serbia will be forced to recognize Kosovo in order to join the European Union?
10%
19%
71%
9%
19%
72%
12%
20%
68%
14%
19%
67%
12%
21%
68%
11%
20%
69%
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80%
Don't Know/No Answer
No
Yes
August 2010 April 2011 March 2012 February 2014 July 2015 November 2015
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If that happens (Serbia is required to recognize Kosovo), what do you think Serbia should do?
41%
41%
46%
44%
57%
57%
22%
20%
19%
16%
16%
13%
26%
24%
19%
28%
19%
17%
11%
15%
16%
13%
8%
12%
August 2010
April 2011
March 2012
Feburary 2014
July 2015
November 2015
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%
Refuse to accept that even if it means staying out of EU.
Even though the recognition would be tough for me, the government should do this as anecessary evil because the benefits of EU surpass the costs of recognition.
Accept the request and proceed with joining EU because Kosovo independence is anirreversible process.
Don't Know/No Answer
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How would you describe the stability situation in the region today?
16
3%
11%
36%
47%
4%
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50%
Don't Know/No Answer
Very Unstable
Somewhat Unstable
Somewhat Stable
Very Stable
Stable: 51%
Unstable: 47%
And what about Europe as a whole? Is the situation in Europe…
17
4%
16%
42%
35%
3%
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50%
Don't Know/No Answer
Very Unstable
Somewhat Unstable
Somewhat Stable
Very Stable
Stable: 38%
Unstable: 58%
How big of a threat, if at all, do each of the following pose to the stability of Europe?
1%
2%
4%
5%
5%
4%
2%
5%
9%
14%
10%
8%
9%
14%
25%
25%
28%
29%
20%
28%
23%
23%
28%
30%
67%
49%
37%
30%
28%
26%
1%
1%
2%
3%
2%
4%
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%
Terrorism
Migrants fromMiddle East/North
Africa
Crime andCorruption
Military Conflict
Financial Issues
Ethnic Relations
No Threat at All 2 3 4 Very Big Threat Don't Know/No Answer
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(Please, rate on a scale of 1-5, 1=no threat at all, 5=very big threat)
Ethnic Relations
Financial Issues
Military Conflict
Crime and Corruption
Migrants from Middle
East/North Africa
Terrorism
Serbs Look to Russia in Search of Economic Prosperity, Security
How strongly do you agree or disagree with the following statements?Serbia’s interests are best served by maintaining strong relations with:
39%
30%
24%
16%
7%
4%
57%
65%
71%
80%
89%
94%
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%
Turkey
America
EuropeanUnion
Germany
China
Russia
Disagree (3+4) Agree (1+2)
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Serbia's interests are best served by maintaining strong relations with…
21
72%
64%67%
60%
63%65% 65%
80%
74%
79%
74%74%
82%80%
82%
78%79%
66%72%
75%
71%
88%
88%
88%
82%
76%
88%89%
92%
90%
92%
86%
81%
94% 94%
60%
65%
70%
75%
80%
85%
90%
95%
100%
October 2009 August 2010 April 2011 March 2012 February 2014 July 2015 November 2015
United States Germany European Union China Russia
If you have to choose one of these countries, Serbia’s interests are best served by maintaining strong relations with which country?
4%
1%
4%
8%
13%
17%
53%
5%
1%
3%
7%
9%
12%
63%
0% 20% 40% 60% 80%
Don't Know/No Answer
Turkey
United States
China
Germany
European Union
Russia
November 2015 July 2015
22
To the best of your knowledge, which country (out of those listed) is the biggest aid donor to Serbia?
23
15%
1%
2%
3%
8%
14%
21%
36%
0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% 40%
Don't Know/No Answer
Turkey
United States
Other Country
Germany
China
European Union
Russia
Why do you feel that Serbia’s interests would be best served by maintaining strong relations with Russia?
(Those who think that Serbia`s interests would be best served by maintaining strong relations with Russia, July n=753, November n=912)
1%
4%
4%
11%
18%
13%
26%
23%
1%
3%
8%
10%
18%
18%
20%
23%
0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30%
Don't Know/No Answer
Russia Is the Biggest Investor in Serbia
It Is Our Main Gas / Oil Provider
It Is Our True Ally in the Effort to Keep KosovoPart of Serbia
Russia Is Our Protector throughout History
It Is Our Biggest Export Market
Russia Is the Only Power That Can Confrontthe West
Russians Are Our Orthodox Brothers
November 2015 July 2015
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Russians Are Our Orthodox Brothers
Russia Is the Only Power That Can
Confront the West
It Is Our Biggest Export Market
Russia Is Our Protector throughout
History
It Is Our True Ally in the Effort to
Keep Kosovo Part of Serbia
It Is Our Main Gas/Oil Provider
Russia Is the Biggest Investor in
Serbia
Don't Know/No Answer
How do you view Russian investment in Serbia?
25
46%
38%
9%7%
Russian investment is primarily about economics, delivering benefits to both sides.
Russian investment gives some benefits to Serbia but also carries certain expectations andconditions.
Russian investment is primarily about influence and control of Serbia.
Don't Know/No Answer
Which statement is closer to your opinion?
26
12%
19%
61%
8%
Serbia Belongs in the West
Serbia Belongs in the East
Serbia Doesn't Belong in Either the West or the East
Don't Know/No Answer
Demographics
9%
2%
3%
86%
22%
17%
18%
15%
18%
10%
48%
52%
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%
Other
Muslim\Bosniak
Hungarian
Serbian
65+
54-64
45-54
35-44
25-34
18-24
Male
Female
ETH
NIC
ITY
AG
EG
EN
DER
Demographics
28
27%
55%
18%
29%
59%
12%
<1%
18%
29%
6%
5%
2%
12%
24%
5%
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70%
Elementary or Less
Secondary
College or University
Employed in State-Owned Enterprise
Employed in Private Enterprise
Self-Employed
Other
Unemployed
Pensioner
Housewife
Student
Pupil
Employed in State-Owned Enterprise
Employed in Private Enterprise
Self-Employed
ED
UCATIO
N
TYPE O
FEM
PLO
YM
EN
T(n
=588)
EM
PLO
YM
EN
T
Demographics
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