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Better and Better: The Myth of Inevitable

ProgressBy James Surowiecki

From our July/August 2007 Issue

"Day by day, i e!ery way, I am gettig better ad better" #$at matra, i!eted by t$e sel%&taug$t'syc$ologist (mile )ou* i t$e ieteet$ cetury, ke't ruig t$roug$ my $ead as I read Idur+oklays ew book o t$e relatios$i' betwee ecoomic growt$ ad $uma ad e!irometal'rogress, #$e Im'ro!ig State o% t$e -orld Just as )ou* told $is 'atiets t$at icessat re'etitio o%$is matra would make it come true, +oklay seems to belie!e t$at sayig o%te eoug$ && ad ieoug$ di%%eret ways && t$at li%e today is better t$a e!er will make it so

+oklay de'icts a global ecoomy i w$ic$ early all sigs are 'ositi!e && ad i w$ic$ t$e 'roblemst$at do e.ist, suc$ as stagatio or setbacks i sub&Sa$ara A%rica ad t$e %ormer So!iet io, will besol!ed i% ecoomic growt$ ad tec$ological im'ro!emets are allowed to work t$eir magic or ist$is, i +oklays accout, a ew '$eomeo 1e mars$als a im'ressi!e array o% $istorical data toargue t$at t$e traectory o% t$e twetiet$ cetury $as bee geerally u'ward ad oward #ake as aw$ole, +oklay argues, $umaity really $as bee gettig better ad better day by day, so t$at today, as$is subtitle 'uts it, "were li!ig loger, $ealt$ier, more com%ortable li!es o a cleaer 'laet"

See %rom a broad $istorical 'ers'ecti!e, t$is descri'tio is, %or most 'eo'le, accurate eoug$ Justabout e!eryoe li!ig today is t$e bee%iciary o% w$at ca almost certaily be called t$e sigle mostcose3uetial de!elo'met i $uma $istory && amely, t$e oset o% idustriali4atio As t$e ecoomic$istoria Agus 5addiso $as s$ow i a series o% studies o% ecoomic de!elo'met o!er t$e 'ast twomilleia, $uma ecoomies grew !ery little, i% at all, %or most o% $uma $istory Betwee 6000 ad620 or so, 5addiso estimates, aual ecoomic growt$ was aroud 008 'ercet a year && w$ic$meat t$at li!ig stadards im'ro!ed icredibly slowly ad t$at 'eo'le li!ig i 600 were oly mildly

better o%% t$a 'eo'le li!ig i 6000 But sometime aroud 620, t$at all bega to c$age Betwee620 ad today, world 'er ca'ita real icome grew 20 times as %ast as it did i t$e 're!ious eig$tceturies

I t$e -est, abo!e all, t$e e%%ects o% t$is tras%ormatio $a!e bee so massi!e as to be 'racticallyu%at$omable 9eal icome, li%e e.'ectacy, literacy ad educatio rates, ad %ood cosum'tio $a!esoared, w$ile i%at mortality, $ours worked, ad %ood 'rices $a!e 'lummeted Ad alt$oug$ t$e -est$as bee t$e biggest bee%iciary o% t$ese c$ages, t$e di%%usio o% tec$ology, medicie, adagricultural tec$i3ues $as meat t$at de!elo'ig coutries $a!e eoyed dramatic im'ro!emets iw$at t$e ited atios calls "$uma de!elo'met idicators," e!e i% most o% t$eir citi4es remai

http://www.foreignaffairs.com/author/james-surowieckihttp://www.foreignaffairs.com/issues/2007/86/4http://localhost/var/www/apps/conversion/tmp/scratch_3/http://www.foreignaffairs.com/issues/2007/86/4http://www.foreignaffairs.com/author/james-surowiecki

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'oor :e cose3uece o% t$is is t$at 'eo'le at a gi!e icome le!el today are likely to be $ealt$ier adto li!e loger t$a 'eo'le at t$e same icome le!el did ;0 or 80 years ago

I oe sese, all o% t$is s$ould be ob!ious, sice a momets t$oug$t && or a 3uick read o% a ieteet$&cetury o!el && s$ould su%%ice to remid you o% $ow muc$ better, at least i material terms, li%e istoday t$a it was a cetury ago, let aloe i t$e 6, le!el o% a%%luece =A>, adtec$ological e%%iciecy =#> Accordig to t$is logic, ot oly are 'o'ulatio growt$ ad ecoomicgrowt$ bad %or t$e eart$, but so, too, is tec$ological c$age, sice it $as a multi'lier e%%ect o t$eot$er two %actors #$e oly way to sa!e t$e 'laet, %rom t$e eo&5alt$usias 'ers'ecti!e, is to setstrict limits o $uma be$a!ior, doig e!eryt$ig 'ossible to rei i busiesses ad cosumers

#$e I A# %ormula was ot 'ulled com'letely out o% t$i air As societies get ric$er ad more'o'ulous, t$ey do cosume more resources, ad, es'ecially i t$e early '$ases o% ecoomic growt$,t$ey do so wit$ a measure o% idi%%erece to t$e o!erall im'act o t$e e!iromet But w$at t$ee3uatio misses, ad w$at +oklay s'eds a good c$uk o% $is book demostratig, is t$at tec$ologyca actually reduce e!irometal im'act, t$ereby dimiis$ig t$e demads made by a%%luece ad'o'ulatio growt$ A classic e.am'le o% t$is e%%ect is t$e massi!e e.'asio i t$e e%%iciecy o%agricultural 'roducti!ity o!er t$e 'ast ;0 years roducti!ity gais $a!e dramatically reduced t$ee!irometal burde o% %armig =at least o t$e lad && t$ere $a!e ot bee similar ad!aces i t$ee%%iciet use o% water> ad s$ruk t$e amout o% lad eeded to %eed t$e world 5ore recetly,tec$ological im'ro!emets i t$e scrubbig o% 'ower&'lat smokestacks $a!e broug$t about a s$ar'reductio i t$e amout o% sul%ur dio.ide i t$e air Im'ro!emets i t$e e%%iciecy o% wid ad solar'ower $a!e reduced =albeit oly a little> t$e demad %or %ossil %uels Ad alt$oug$ t$e im'act o% t$eseio!atios $as bee %elt most strogly i t$e de!elo'ed world, t$ey $a!e also im'ro!ed coditios it$e de!elo'ig world, at least wit$ regard to t$igs suc$ as access to clea water ad some ty'es o% airemissios +oklay may be e.aggeratig somew$at w$e $e says t$at t$e etire 'laet && as o''osed to

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ust t$e de!elo'ed world && is cleaer, but it is i %act ot a outrageous claim

#$e 'arado. $ere is t$at tec$ological c$age is geerally associated wit$ =or is actually t$e result o%>icreased a%%luece, w$ic$ makes it likely t$at a ecoomy will get cleaer e!e as it gets ric$er Adem'irically, t$at does seem to be t$e case A%ter all, de!elo'ed coutries do geerally $a!e cleaer air,cleaer water, more %orest co!er, ad less cro'lad de!oted to %ood 'roductio t$a de!elo'igcoutries do, e!e t$oug$ t$e latter are muc$ 'oorer #$e ob!ious, ad im'ortat, e.ce'tio is ):2emissios ad t$e broader 'roblem o% climate c$age But +oklay && w$o s'eds too muc$ o% $isbook o%%erig a o!erly %amiliar criti3ue o% e.cessi!e actio i res'ose to global warmig && arguest$at ow t$at Americas are icreasigly cocered about climate c$age, tec$ology will soo $el'mitigate t$e 'roblem

All o% t$is does ot mea t$at t$e ited States is less 'olluted t$a it was i 677, let aloe t$a it wasw$e it was i$abited oly by ati!e Americas But it does mea t$at t$e ited States is arguablyless 'olluted today t$a at ay time i t$e last 600 years ad t$at t$e last ;0 years or so, i 'articular,$a!e see a dramatic im'ro!emet i t$e 3uality o% air ad water Ad t$e same is true, to lesser adgreater e.tets, i t$e rest o% t$e de!elo'ed world :e $y'ot$esis %or w$y t$is $as $istoricallyoccurred is demostrated by w$at is called t$e e!irometal Eu4ets cur!e =?E)> -$e gra'$ed, t$e

relatios$i' betwee 'ros'erity ad e!irometal degradatio looks like a u'side&dow Iitially,as coutries grow, t$ey trade o%% e!irometal well&beig %or ecoomic growt$ && t$at is, as t$ey getric$er, t$ey also get more 'olluted At some 'oit, $owe!er, t$ey become 'ros'erous eoug$ to s$i%tt$eir 'riorities ad begi to seek out ways to grow more clealy +oklay suggests a !ariatio o t$e?E), t$e "e!irometal trasitio $y'ot$esis," w$ic$ tries to accout %or time ad tec$ology as wellas a%%luece #$e i!etio ad s'read o% ew tec$ologies, $e suggests, make it easier ad more likely%or coutries to get o t$e rig$t side o% t$e &cur!e 3uickly, e!e be%ore t$ey $a!e become ric$ t$e"gree re!olutio," %or istace, allowed 'oor coutries to reduce t$e e!irometal burde o% %armig

F9?? 5A9E?#S, F9?? ?:@?

#$e e!irometal trasitio $y'ot$esis is a reasoable way o% t$ikig about t$e relatios$i' betwee'ros'erity, tec$ology, ad 'eo'les e.'ectatios about t$e e!iromet Ad +oklays rebuttal to t$ee!irometal doomsayers is bot$ welcome ad co!icig So w$y, t$e, is $is o!erall take o t$eworld && ad i 'articular o $ow we got to w$ere we are ad w$at we eed to do to kee' t$igsmo!ig i t$e rig$t directio && usatis%yig i t$at )ou*ist wayG #$e sim'le aswer is t$at +oklaysaccout lea!es out too muc$ t$at matters ad 'reteds t$at icredibly com'le. '$eomea ca bee.'laied away wit$ a %ew catc$ '$rases I its o!erly saguie ad sim'listic take o globali4atio,regulatio, ad t$e role o% state ad ecoomic 'ower, #$e Im'ro!ig State o% t$e -orld is sym'tomatico% w$at $as become, i t$e eyes o% may, a 3uitessetially America 'oit o% !iew && a !iew accordigto w$ic$ t$e task o% creatig a better world ca ultimately be boiled dow to t$e motto o% t$e -allStreet Joural editorial 'ageC "%ree markets ad %ree 'eo'le"

Free markets ad %ree 'eo'le are, to be sure, woder%ul t$igs But w$at +oklay o%%ers u' i $is book

is a %udametally determiistic take o t$e worldC as coutries get ric$er ad more tec$ologicallyad!aced, t$eir citi4es =all, or almost all, o% t$em> aturally get $ealt$ier ad better educated, eatbetter, li!e loger, ad care more about t$e e!iromet #$e %ree market, recogi4ig 'eo'lesresultig desires, deli!ers t$e goods t$ey wat

#$e e!irometal trasitio $y'ot$esis is t$e most strikig e.am'le o% t$is !iew, sice it 'ostulatest$at e!irometal im'ro!emet $a''es, as it were, aturally #$e reality, o% course, is t$at t$e %ig$to!er e!irometal regulatio, at least i t$e ited States, was && ad remais && a %ierce oe ad t$ate!irometal ske'tics ad busiesses $a!e doe t$eir best to 're!et regulatios suc$ as t$e )lea Airad )lea -ater Acts %rom e!er becomig law It is also t$e case t$at wit$out t$ose regulatios, t$e

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"cleaer 'laet" +oklay sees today would ot e.ist +oklay attem'ts t$e argumet t$at air ad water'ollutio i t$e ited States were decliig log be%ore regulatios were 'ut ito e%%ect%ortuately, $is ow e!idece s$ows t$at emissios %or a $ost o% 'ollutats 'eaked rig$t aroud670, w$e t$e )lea Air Act was 'assed, or a%ter, ad myriad studies demostrate t$at t$e itedStates ri!ers ad lakes are dramatically more swimmable ad %is$able today t$a t$ey were be%ore t$e)lea -ater Act

#$e 'oit is t$at %ar %rom beig t$e ie!itable 'roduct o% a strog ecoomy, e!irometalim'ro!emet is o%te t$e result o% 'olitical struggles t$at could !ery easily $a!e goe t$e ot$er way Itis also ulikely to occur i t$e absece o% a strog state t$at is accoutable to its citi4es Het +oklaysetire work && 'er$a's ot sur'risigly %or someoe at t$e libertaria )ato Istitute && is 'redicated ot$e idea t$at t$e state mostly %uctios as a obstacle to t$e bee!olet workigs o% t$e market #$isassum'tio is es'ecially 'eculiar i t$e cote.t o% a discussio o% 'ollutio, sice ecoomic t$eory tellsus t$at 'olluters, i t$e absece o% regulatio, $a!e o reaso to take t$e costs o% t$eir emissios itoaccout ollutio is t$e 3uitessetial case o% a egati!e e.terality ad, accordigly, o% market%ailureC sice 'olluters do ot 'ay t$e cost o% t$eir 'ollutio, t$ey will 'roduce more t$a is sociallyo'timal e!e i% t$ey may reduce t$eir emissios as a by'roduct o% im'ro!emets i o!erall e%%iciecy#$e oly way, ultimately, to reduce 'ollutio is to costrai 'olluters to do ot$erwise It is ot, i ot$er

words, %ree&market&dri!e ecoomic growt$ ad tec$ological c$age aloe t$at make t$e I A#e3uatio %alse it is t$ose t$igs cou'led wit$ t$e rig$t iceti!es, iceti!es t$at t$e market by itsel%caot 'ro!ide

#$e same %acile assum'tio t$at t$e u%ettered market is t$e sol!et %or all serious 'roblems 'er!ades+oklays discussio o% globali4atio ad its im'act o global well&beig As +oklay 'oits out,correctly, it is a myt$ t$at t$e ad!et o% globali4atio $as bee accom'aied by a rise i 'o!erty adie3uality I %act, t$e 'ercetage o% t$e worlds 'o'ulatio t$at is 'oor $as actually %alle o!er t$e 'asttwo decades =alt$oug$ 27 billio 'eo'le still li!e o less t$a 2 a day> Ad ie3uality && at leastamog idi!iduals globally && $as actually declied some as well #$e sur'risigly 'ersistet 'icture o%globali4atio as a 'rocess w$ereby t$e de!elo'ed world e.'loits ad immiserates t$e de!elo'ig oe isust wrog

#$e 'roblem, $owe!er, is t$at t$e umber o% coutries t$at $a!e dramatically im'ro!ed t$eir stadardso% li!ig i t$e era o% globali4atio is sur'risigly small && ad most o% t$em are i Asia So e!e i%ecoomic growt$ is, as it seems to be, %udametal to "t$e im'ro!ig state o% t$e world," we $a!e otdoe a !ery good ob o% %igurig out $ow to s'read t$e bee%its o% t$at growt$ aroud t$e globe As+oklay ackowledges, t$e ecoomies o% sub&Sa$ara A%rica ad t$e %ormer So!iet io $a!e imay cases ot ust sto''ed growig but actually s$ruk o!er t$e 'ast 68 years or so 5ost o% @atiAmerica $as see oly tri!ial ecoomic growt$ i t$e 'ast two decades, w$ile e!e Asias "little tigers"=Idoesia, 5alaysia, ad #$ailad> && w$ose ecoomies $a!e grow ra'idly sice t$e 670s && $a!es'et muc$ o% t$e 'ast se!e years reco!erig %rom t$e damage wroug$t by t$e 60s Asia %iacialcrisis It is true t$at most o% t$ese coutries $a!e oet$eless see t$eir $uma de!elo'met idicators

im'ro!e, t$aks to t$e di%%usio o% tec$ology ad $ealt$ care But outside o% Asia =ad a %ew 'lacessuc$ as Botswaa ad )$ile>, t$e ecoomic bee%its o% globali4atio $a!e bee $ard to %id, w$ic$ is'recisely w$y t$ere $as bee suc$ a backlas$ agaist w$at $as come to be kow as t$e -as$igtocosesus +oklay argues t$at it oly makes sese to attack globali4atio i% t$ere is e!idece t$at ric$coutries are gettig ric$er o t$e backs o% t$e 'oor But it is ot sur'risig t$at 'eo'le are madeu$a''y by t$e sig$t o% ot$ers gettig ric$er w$ile t$ey stay t$e same or actually get 'oorer

+oklay suggests oe res'ose to t$is criti3ueC t$e 'roblem is t$at t$ere $as bee too littleglobali4atio, ot too muc$, ad t$at w$at go!ermets eed to do is ste' out o% t$e way ad let t$emarket be %ree #$ere is o doubtig t$e !irtue o% t$e %ree market as a wealt$&creatio mac$ie, ad it is

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certaily t$e case t$at i may coutries bad 'olicies =o%te desiged to 'rotect establis$ed iterests>$a!e discouraged etre'reeurs$i' ad scared away ca'ital oet$eless, $ere, too, t$e e!idece is %armore ambiguous t$a #$e Im'ro!ig State o% t$e -orld im'lies #ake )$ia ad Idia, w$ic$ toget$erare res'osible %or almost all o% t$e reductio i 'o!erty i t$e world i t$e 'ast two decades #$ey aregreat success stories, but w$e it comes to uderstadig w$at t$ey say about $ow to attai ecoomicgrowt$, t$ey are com'licated rat$er t$a straig$t%orward stories )$ia is a log way %rom a true %ree&

market ecoomy, ad it $as %ollowed almost oe o% t$e rules t$at t$e -as$igto cosesus set dowA $uge umber o% its eter'rises remai state&owed, t$e allocatio o% ca'ital i t$e coutry remaislargely determied by 'olitics, t$e coutrys ca'ital markets are ot truly o'e, t$ere are limitatios o%oreig owers$i', t$e currecy is ot co!ertible, ad so o Idia, similarly alt$oug$ lessdramatically, still $as massi!e tari%%s, strict legal restrictios o %oreig owers$i' ad o ewbusiesses, ad a aggressi!e regulatory state #$e core message o% +oklays book is t$at ecoomicgrowt$ ad tec$ological c$age are t$e keys to im'ro!ig 'eo'les li!es But t$e success o% )$ia adIdia suggests t$at o oe really kows $ow to brig t$ese ac$ie!emets about, w$ic$ makes+oklays wide&eyed o'timism about t$e %uture seem mis'laced

#1? ?- 9A+5A#IS5

-$at is missig %rom #$e Im'ro!ig State o% t$e -orld, i t$e ed, is a sese o% ust $ow com'le.societies ad ecoomies really are arado.ically, %or a book dedicated to celebratig t$e eormous'rogress t$e world $as made i t$e 'ast two decades, it does ot su%%icietly ackowledge ust $owmiraculous t$e success o% t$e -est ad Ja'a $as bee ad $ow %ar %rom assured it is t$at t$e rest o% t$eworld will eoy ayt$ig like it #$at is ot ecessarily cause %or 'essimism && t$e o''oets o%globali4atio, ad t$e 'ro'oets o% t$e immiseratio t$esis, o!erlook t$e !ery real im'ro!emets ie!eryday li%e t$at e!e some o% t$e worlds 'oorer coutries $a!e eoyed as a result o% t$e s'read o%tec$ology !ia globali4atio But i some im'ortat sese, +oklays book %eels like it mig$t $a!ebee writte 68 years ago, w$e t$e -as$igto cosesus was still all t$e rage ad w$e it seemedt$at sol!ig t$e de!elo'ig worlds 'roblems was ust a matter o% lowerig trade barriers, 'ri!ati4igidustries, ad allowig ca'ital to %low %reely +oklay 'reteds to a certaity about t$e 'at$ to'ros'erity t$at o oe, at t$is 'oit, ca $a!e #$e e.'eriece o% t$e last two decades $as $ad a

c$asteig e%%ect o t$e e.'ectatios o% may o% globali4atios most ardet ad!ocates && e!e t$ose i'laces suc$ as t$e Iteratioal 5oetary Fud +oklay, a''aretly, $as remaied immue

Agai, t$e 'oit is ot to retur to t$e bad old days o% 'rotectioism ad im'ort&substitutioidustriali4atio #$e 'oit, rat$er, is t$at we sim'ly kow a lot less t$a we t$oug$t we did #ake, %oristace, )$ile ad Botswaa, two o% t$e oly o&Asia de!elo'ig coutries to eoy meaig%ul,sustaied ecoomic growt$ i t$e 'ast 20 years )$ile, uder Augusto ioc$et, im'lemeted may%ree&market re%orms, ad t$e 'ri!ati4atio o% its social security system $as made it a darlig o% %reemarketeers But a si4able 'ortio o% )$iles wealt$ actually comes %rom its co''er $oldigs, w$ic$ e!eioc$et did ot 'ri!ati4e Ad )$ile also limited t$e %low o% so&called $ot ca'ital ito its markets Is itt$e ad$erece to markets or t$e de!iatios %rom t$em t$at accout %or )$iles success, or is it t$e

combiatio o% t$e twoG :r is it somet$ig else etirely, somet$ig about )$ilea attitudes toward timead work ad etre'reeurs$i'G #$e trut$ is o oe is sure Botswaa, similarly, $as %ollowed ort$odo.ecoomic 'olicies ad $as a limited state ad low le!els o% corru'tio, all o% w$ic$ 'resumably $a!esomet$ig to do wit$ its success But Botswaa also $a''es to $a!e $uge diamod su''lies, w$ic$accout %or aroud ;0 'ercet o% its aual out'ut Botswaas itelliget ecoomic 'olicies almostcertaily $a!e $el'ed it rea' greater bee%its %rom its atural resources =ulike t$e may coutries t$at%all !ictim to "t$e resource curse"> But you ca $ardly $old it u' as a model t$at ot$er atios could%ollow, uless you 'la to edow t$em wit$ massi!e diamod su''lies, too

#$e %act t$at e!ery coutrys e.'eriece is di%%eret does ot mea t$at t$ere are ot dee'er trut$s to be

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uco!ered by lookig at t$e e.'eriece o% t$e world as a w$ole But t$e trut$s t$us %ar uco!ered arerelati!ely %ew i umber ad o%te limited i im'act So, yes, %ree trade is a good t$ig, subsidies toagriculture ad o%%icial corru'tio are bad t$igs, ad so o Ad 'olicymakers s$ould be aggressi!e iim'lemetig t$ose 'ractices ad 'olicies t$at t$ere is a good reaso to t$ik will work But t$ey alsoeed to be cautious about takig t$eoretical 'rooucemets %or reality, ad t$ey s$ould be 'ragmatistsrat$er t$a e!agelists A%ter decades o% mis'laced certaity, it may be time to recogi4e t$e limits o%

our ow kowledge && at least i% we wat t$e state o% t$e world to cotiue im'ro!ig

Better Lives?

By Idur 5 +oklayFrom ouro!ember/December 2007 Issue

#o t$e ?ditorC

I am 'leased t$at i $is re!iew o% my book #$e Im'ro!ig State o% t$e -orldC -$y -ere @i!ig@oger, 1ealt$ier, 5ore )om%ortable @i!es o a )leaer laet ="Better ad Better," July/August2007>, James Surowiecki agrees t$at %rom a $istorical 'ers'ecti!e t$e state o% t$e world $as im'ro!ed1owe!er, I am disa''oited t$at $e missed some o% my most im'ortat 'oits && as e!ideced i'articular by $is claim t$at I belie!e 'rogress is "ie!itable" ot$ig could be %urt$er %rom my !iewsI ote o 'age 660 o% my book, "Because ecoomic growt$ ad tec$ological c$age are otie!itable, e!irometal cleau' ad e!irometal trasitios are, likewise, ot a %oregoecoclusio" I reem'$asi4e t$is 'oit at ot$er 'laces, ad t$e book eds wit$ t$ese wordsC "Buttec$ology is ot eoug$ we also eed ecoomic de!elo'met Alt$oug$ t$ere are o guaratees,actig toget$er, t$ey && more t$a ayt$ig else && o%%er t$e best $o'e %or tec$ological 'rogress,

wit$out w$ic$ we caot e.'ad curret limits to growt$"Surowiecki also claims t$at uder my e!irometal trasitio $y'ot$esis, e!irometal cleau'$a''es "aturally" 1e argues t$at suc$ cleau' is ot t$e "ie!itable 'roduct o% a strog ecoomy"ad may ot occur wit$out "a strog state t$at is accoutable to its citi4es" I say as muc$ i mye.'ositio o% t$e $y'ot$esis I ote t$at oe reaso %or t$e e!irometal trasitio t$at leads tocleau' is t$at "a democratic society, because it $as t$e 'olitical meas to do so, will traslate its desire%or a cleaer e!iromet ito laws, eit$er because cleau' is ot !olutary or ra'id eoug$, orbecause o% s$eer symbolism #$e wealt$ier suc$ a society, t$e more a%%ordable && ad more demadig&& its laws"

Surowiecki also declares t$at my ow e!idece s$ows t$at emissios o% may air 'ollutats 'eakedaroud 670, a%ter t$at years )lea Air Act was 'assed, ad t$at a%terward ri!ers ad lakes becamemore swimmable ad %is$able But t$is law was eacted a%ter maor gais i reducig t$e 'ublic $ealt$im'acts o% air ad water 'ollutio $ad already bee secured t$ese laws did ot accelerateim'ro!emets i e!irometal 3uality 5oreo!er, emissios are ot t$e best measure o% t$e im'acts o%air 'ollutio, es'ecially wit$ regard to 'ublic $ealt$ #$at is w$y t$e ?!irometal rotectioAgecys atioal ambiet air 3uality stadards, w$ic$ s'eci%y w$et$er outdoor air 3uality is i t$e$ealt$y rage, are measured i terms o% cocetratios o% 'ollutats i t$e outdoor air, rat$er t$aemissios @og&term data idicate t$at %or t$e most sigi%icat 'ollutats, maor im'ro!emets ioutdoor ad idoor air 3uality 'receded t$e 670 )lea Air Act

http://www.foreignaffairs.com/issues/2007/86/6http://www.foreignaffairs.com/issues/2007/86/6

8/12/2019 SUROWIECKI vs GOKLANY --Better and Better, the Myth of Inevitable Progress

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9egardig water 'ollutio, I ote t$at %ederal laws did ideed im'ro!e %is$ability ad swimmability,but deat$s due to water&related diseases $ad bee reduced by &600 'ercet betwee 600 ad 670,be%ore t$e eactmet o% t$e )lea -ater Act o% 672 ad t$e Sa%e Drikig -ater Act o% 67;Alt$oug$ t$e 670s e!irometal laws did brig some bee%its, some o% t$e most sigi%icat cleau'$ad occurred be%ore t$ey took e%%ect, ad t$eir "commad&ad&cotrol" regulatory a''roac$ cost moret$a more %le.ible a''roac$es =suc$ as emissios tradig or e!irometal ta.es> would $a!e

Fially, I would dis'ute Surowieckis c$aracteri4atio o% me as a "wide&eyed" o'timist I am o moreco!iced t$a $e is about t$e ie!itability o% 'rogress ?coomic ad tec$ological 'rogress are!aluable because t$ey ad!ace e!irometal ad $uma well&beig %ortuately, t$ey are otie!itable