Surface ozone trends in a changing climate Camilla Andersson, Magnuz Engardt & Joakim Langner.
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Transcript of Surface ozone trends in a changing climate Camilla Andersson, Magnuz Engardt & Joakim Langner.
Surface ozone trends in a changing climate
Camilla Andersson, Magnuz Engardt & Joakim Langner
What will happen to surface ozone in the future?Climate change
Stability, BVOC, deposition, …Anthropogenic emission change in EuropeChange in inter-continental transport Change in stratospheric contribution Etc
Andersson, Engardt & Langner – future surface ozone in Europe
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Magnuz Engardt
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Previous publications with MATCH studyingwith the effect of climate change on air quality:
Langner, J., Bergström, R. and Foltescu, V. 2005. Impact of climate change on surface ozone and deposition of sulphur and nitrogen in Europe. Atmos. Environ. 39, 1129-1141.
Hole, L. and Engardt, M. 2008. Climate change impact on atmospheric nitrogen deposition in Northwestern Europe: A model study. Ambio 37, 9-17.
Langner, J., Andersson, C. and Engardt, M. 2009. Atmospheric input of nitrogen to the Baltic Sea basin: present situation, variability due to meteorology and impact of climate change. Boreal Environ. Res. 14, 226-237.
Engardt, M., Bergström, R. and Andersson, C. 2009. Climate and emission changes contributing to changes in near-surface ozone in Europe over the coming decades: Results from model studies. Ambio 38, 452–458. DOI: 10.1579/0044-7447-38.8.452
Andersson, C. and Engardt, M. 2010. European ozone in a future climate: Importance of changes in dry deposition and isoprene emissions. J. Geophys. Res., 115, D02303. doi:10.1029/2008JD011690
Klingberg J., Engardt M., Uddling J., Karlsson P.E. and Pleijel H. 2010. Ozone risk for vegetation in the future climate of Europe based on stomatal ozone uptake calculations. Tellus, In press. DOI: 10.1111/j.1600-0870.2010.00465.x
New study – what is more important for future surface ozone Precursor emissions? Climate change? Boundary concentration?
Today’s talk Design of study
Model set up Evaluation Precursor emission projection Modelled results: timeseries and maps Conclusions
Modelling set up
Andersson, Engardt & Langner – future surface ozone in Europe
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Dynamical downscaling
Global climate changeECHAM5
Regional climate changeRCA3 Regional CTM
MATCH
CO2 emission scenario: A1BCO2 emission scenario: A1B
Period 1961-2100Constant or varying• precursor emissions • boundary concentration
Andersson and Bergström - scarp 2.2
3-dimensional transport and chemistry model (MATCH)Boundary conc,
parameters etc.
3-dimensional meteorological fields Emissions
Land use
CTM: MATCHEulerian three dimensional chemistry transport model• ~60 chemical species• Transport (advection and mixing)• Natural emissions (sea salt, isoprene)• Deposition• Chemistry (photo-, wet-, thermal-, ~130 reactions in kpp)• Particle components: sulfate, nitrate, ammonium, ec, oc, (anthr) dust, sea salt
Input data• 3D met, every 3-6 hours• Emissions• Boundary and initial
concentrations• Deposition velocities• Etc…
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Magnuz Engardt
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What’s currently missing in MATCH? Vegetation affected by climate change Air Quality’s impact on climate Some PM emissions and dynamics not included in MATCH MATCH does not consider heavy metals, POPs, greenhouse gases, …
MATCH is a mass based modelwe are currently including more sophisticatedaerosol dynamic treatment of particles but this, updated, model is not included in this study
Dynamical downscaling of global climate model over Europe by RCA3 Input to MATCH every 6 hours (T, CC, QML, PREC, U, V, surface fields, …)
RCA3 (Samuelsson et al 2011, Kjellström et al 2011) Full description of atmosphere and interations with land surface Land surface model (Samuelsson et al 2006) Lake model, PROBE (Ljungemyr et al 1996) SST and SI conditions are prescibed (this set up)
Here: 0.44 km (rotated lat-lon) over Europé
4month spin up Transient calculation 1961-2100
Has been applied in numerous studieswith numerous GCMs as input
Climate data
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Scenarios (we are also using HADCM3-RCA3, not shown today)
Global (climate) model
Regional downscale climate model
CTM Boundary conc (CTM)
Precursor emissions
GHG emissions
Years
ECHAM5 RCA3 MATCH constant Yr 2000 A1B 2000-2100
ECHAM5 RCA3 MATCH constant RCP4.5 A1B 1961-2100
ECHAM5 RCA3 MATCH 0.1 ppb(v) yr-1
RCP4.5 A1B 2000-2100
ECHAM5 RCA3 MATCH 0.2 ppb(v) yr-1
RCP4.5 A1B 1961-2100
ECHAM4 RCA3 MATCH constant Yr 2000 A2 1961-19902021-20502071-2100
ERA40 - MATCH constant Yr 2000 ”real” 1958-2001
Andersson, Engardt & Langner – future surface ozone in Europe
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Manuscript will be submitted soon!Andersson and Engardt JGR 2010Engardt et al Ambio 2009Andersson and Langner WASP 2007Andersson et al Tellus B 2007
ENSEMBLES: RCA3
(Kjellström et al. 2011)ECHAM4-RCA3 (Kjellström et al 2005)
ECHAM5 (Roeckner et al 2006)ECHAM4 (Roeckner et al 1999)
ERA40 (Uppala et al 2005)
Evaluation ECHAM5-RCA3-MATCH vs obs20 year climatology of near-surface ozone
Andersson, Engardt & Langner – future surface ozone in Europe
Annual mean
AMJJAS mean
Annual daily max
AMJJAS daily max
Mean
Observations 30.8 36.4 41.5 49.6
ECHAM5 A1B3_cleo4.5_1 29.3 35.6 38.4 44.6
Bias % -4.7 -2.3 -7.5 -10.1
Spatial corr. 0.55 0.53 0.71 0.78
# stations 59 63 59 61
RCA3 evaluation 1961-1990: T2M and Precipitation
Andersson, Engardt & Langner – future surface ozone in Europe
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Kjellström et al., 2011
DJF (winter) T2MJJA (summer) T2MPrecipitation
Deviations from obs- Warm bias in winter (NE)- Wet bias in summer (parts N)
RCP4.5 - by JGCRI RCP4.5 end of the century CO2 equiv is ~650 ppm(v)
RCP4.5
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Precursor emission scenarios - NOx
Andersson, Engardt & Langner – future surface ozone in Europe
1850
2100
Precursor emission scenarios - NMVOC
Andersson, Engardt & Langner – future surface ozone in Europe
1850
2100
Change in temperature and precipitation2071-2100 vs 1961-1990
ECHAM5-RCA3 CO2 : A1B
Andersson, Engardt & Langner – future surface ozone in Europe
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Kjellström et al., 2011
DJF JJA DJF JJA
Change in amjjas avg surface ozone in Europe
ECHAM5-RCA3-MATCH
Andersson, Engardt & Langner – future surface ozone in Europe
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Impact of climate changeSignificant at 99% level2040s/2050s vs 2000s
Impact of climate change and RCP4.5 emissionsSignificant at 99% level2050s vs 2000s
Change in surface ozone in northern Europe
ECHAM5-RCA3-MATCH
Andersson, Engardt & Langner – future surface ozone in Europe
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Manuscript in preparation
Average AMJJAS• daily max • daily
average
Change in surface ozone in southern Europe
ECHAM5-RCA3-MATCH
Andersson, Engardt & Langner – future surface ozone in Europe
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Källström et al., 2009
Average AMJJAS• daily max • daily
average
Andersson, Engardt & Langner – future surface ozone in Europe
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April-Sept h-max• Climate change
April-Sept avg• Climate change
• & Boundary (0.2 ppb yr-1) & prec emis
• & Boundary (0.2ppb yr-1)
& prec emis
April-Sept avg• Climate change
ECHAM4(A2-GHG)
April-Sept avg• Climate change ERA40
• & Prec emis
• & Prec emis
1960 2100
measurement
Model at meas sites
Change in surface ozone, southern EuropeAll scenarios (so far)
Conclusions
The effect of emission reductions in the RCP4.5 scenario on surface ozone has greater impact than climate change in the ECHAM5-RCA3-MATCH scenario on European surface ozone due to climate change.
Interhemispheric transport has the potentail to become an important factor in the future, especially for average concentrations in northern Europe, but also for daily max concentrations.
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Andersson, Engardt & Langner – future surface ozone in Europe
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Andersson, Engardt & Langner – future surface ozone in Europe
Future plans
Publish ECHAM5-RCA3-MATCH and HADCM3-RCA3-MATCH scenarios(manuscript is being compiled)
Use/include more scenarios in various studies: CLIMA-TRAP (EU-project)
Health impact assessment (manuscript is being compiled)
CLEO (Swedish EPA)Vegetation impacts in Sweden
SUDPLAN (EU-project)Downscaling impact of climate change (air pollution, temp, precipitaiton) over some European cities
IMPACT2C (EU-project)Impacts at a 2degree global temp increase
ECLAIRE (EU-project) Etc…
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Andersson, Engardt & Langner – future surface ozone in Europe
Thank you for listening!