WORLD WHEAT Source: US Wheat Associates monthly supply and demand report, found on

their website: http://www.uswheat.org/

The World Wheat Market

Year

Production

Consumption

Surplus (shortfall)

11/12 12/13 13/14

698 655 706

697 679 703

1 -24 3

0 2

World Production and Use

0 3

Supplies in Top Exporting

Countries*

0 4 *Includes U.S., Canada, Australia, Argentina, EU-27, Russia, Ukraine and Kazakhstan

World wheat supply & demand

Date 11/12 12/13 13/14

Supply

Trade

Demand

Ending

stocks

199 199 176

698 655 706

896 855 882

158 138 154

550 543 564

147 136 139

697 679 703

199 176 178

Exports/imports

Beginning stock Production Supply total

Food & seed Feed & residual Use tool

0 5

Global Stocks* -to-Use Ratio

0 6 *Ending stocks

Global Ending Stocks and Price

0 7

Black Sea Exports

0 8

International Wheat Factors

Record 2013/14 world wheat crop – increase of 7.8% from last season, +51

million tons.

Approximately 20% of all wheat globally goes into the feed market and with

the Chicago corn / wheat spread at US$2.30 / buschel - battle.

In spite of problems in South America (frost in Brazil and smaller plantings in

Argentina) – not bullish internationally (Canada and Australia – larger crops).

New season Northern Hemisphere – US / Black Sea / EU plantings look good

– start harvest in June 2014

0 9

U.S. Situation

0 10

Argentina Situation

0 11

Canada Situation

0 12

Date

Opening stock

Production

Imports

489

Consumption

Exports

Closing stock

1752

1600*

3040

280

521

13/14*

Supply & demand of wheat

in South Africa (‘000 tons)

0 13

Local Wheat Drivers

With small local crop, we will trade inland import parity

Currently local wheat well priced versus imports (R / US$), +- R100 / ton at

R10.20 / US$

Western Cape quality concern – at least 100 000 tons lost to feed (S&D)

Still some unsold Black Sea wheat stored in silos / more coming in Dec / Jan

0 14

Local Prices

0 15

2900

2850

2800

2750

2700

2650