Supporting Rich Participatory Mapping for Hybrid …...Supporting Rich Participatory Mapping for...
Transcript of Supporting Rich Participatory Mapping for Hybrid …...Supporting Rich Participatory Mapping for...
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Supporting Rich Participatory Mapping for Hybrid and Agent-Based Models: A
Collaborative Web-Based Modeling Platform
Nathaniel Osgood
University of Saskatchewan
Innovations in Collaborative Modeling
2016
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Agenda
• Motivations
• Vision
– ABHM modeling language
– Collaborative model mapping environment
• Demonstration
• Limitations
• Future Work
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Three Modeling Eras• Consult us, we’ll bring you the answer
– Generalist modelers, dependent end users
• Models built, distributed as “black boxes”
– Tight constraints:Scenario assumptions&outputs
– Limited end user understanding of assumptions
– Slow, exogenous model evolution
• Agile (Collaborative, Adaptive) modeling
– Interdisciplinary: Model building w/end users
– Model relatively transparent to non-modelers
– End user customized outputs
– End users help evolve model assumptions
– Model as living document, evolving with learning
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Models as Thinking Tools• Models help us learn more quickly by thinking
through the implications of our assumptions more
– Consistently, reliably & rigorously
– Quickly
– Thoroughly
and thereby allow us to put whatever empirical evidence we have to better, more complete & effective use in
– Informing our choices
– Advancing our understanding (including by refining our models & our choice of data to collect)
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Models as Boundary Objects• When characterized in a transparent fashion,
models can serve as a common point of understanding by diverse stakeholders
• Having this common point of understanding permits easier communication and sharing of intervention ideas
• The modeling approach & software used often has a major impact on capacity for use of models as boundary objects
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A Spectrum of Participation
Group Model Building Group Model Adaptation
Engagement withBuilt model
GDM-T2DMPatient Flow &
ED Wait TimesAB Pt Vaccination
Tobacco regulatory science
TB Prevention & Control
West Nile virus
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System Dynamics Models as Boundary Objects
• System Dynamics models have long served as effective boundary objects
• Causal loop diagrams can be understood very quickly by those from most backgrounds
• Stock and flow diagrams can be understood with a bit of guidance
• Often the model is finished following the participatory section
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Recent Advances Support Using ABHMs as Boundary Objects
• Recent software advances permit declarative specification of ABHMs -- a focus on what is being modeled, less on the how
• Such specifications do support a strong and growing capacity to use ABHMs as boundary objects
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ABMs: Long-time Status-Quo
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Declarative Languages: Present (AnyLogic)
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Stages of the ABHM Modeling Process
Model scope/boundary
selection.
Model time horizon
Identification of
key variables
Reference modes for
explanation
Causal loop diagrams
Stock & flow diagrams
Policy structure
diagrams
Group model building
Specification of
•Parameters
•Quantitative causal
relations
•Decision rules
Initial conditions
Reference mode
reproduction
Matching of
intermediate time
series
Matching of
observed data point
Constrain to sensible
bounds
Structural sensitivity
analysis
Specification &
investigation of
intervention scenarios
Investigation of
hypothetical external
conditions
Cross-scenario
comparisons (e.g.
CEA)
Parameter sensitivity
analysis
Cross-validation
Robustness&extreme case
tests
Unit checking
Problem domain tests
Formal analysis
Learning
environm
ents/Micr
oworlds/f
light
simulator
s
Qualitative &
Semi-quantitative insights
Infectives
New Infections
People Presenting
for Treatment
Waiting Times
+
+
Health Care Staff
-
Susceptibles-
Contacts ofSusceptibles with
Infectives
++
++
Normal and
Underweight
Weight
Overweight
Pregnant with GDM
History of GDMT2DM
Developing Obesity
Pregnant Normal
Weight Mothers
with No GDM
History
Completion of Pregnancy
to Non-Overweight State
Completion of GDM
Pregnancy
Women with History of
GDM Developing T2DM
Overweight Individuals Developing T2DM
Normal WeightIndividuals Developing
T2DM
Pregnant with
T2DM
New Pregnancies from
Mother with T2DMCompletion of Pregnancy for Mother with T2DM
Pregnant
Overweight
Mothers with No
GDM History
Pregnancies of
Overweight Women
Completion ofPregnancy to
Overweight State
Pregnancies ofNon-Overweight
Women
Pregnancies to Overweight
Mother Developing GDM
Pregnancies toNon-Overweight Mother
Developing GDM
Pregnant with
Pre-Existing History of
GDM
Pregnancies for
Women with GDM
Pregnancies DevelopingGDM from Mother with
GDM History
Completion of Non-GDMPregnancy for Woman with
History of GDM
Shedding Obesity
Pregnant WomenDeveloping PersistentOverweight/Obesity
Oveweight Babies Born
from T2DM Mothers
Pregnant Women with GDMthat Continue on toPostpartum T2DM
Normal Weight Babies Bornfrom Non-GDM Mother with
History of GDM
Overweight Babies Born fromNon-GDM Mother with
History of GDM
Normal Weight BabiesBorn from GDM
Pregnancy
Overweight Babies Born
from GDM Pregnancy
Overweight Babies Born toPregnant Normal Weight
Mothers
Overweight Babies Bornfrom Pregnant Overweight
Mothers
Normal Weight Babies Born to
Mothers without GDM
Normal Weight BabiesBorn from T2DM
Pregnancy
Pregnancy
Duration
<Birth Rate>
Normal Weight Babies Bornto Overweight Mothers
without GDM
Normal Weight
Deaths
Overweight
Deaths
T2DM Deaths
Deaths from Non-T2DMWomen with History of
GDM
2
2
2
2
( )
( )
S I h IIh
S I h IIh
Baseline50%60%70%80%90%95%98%100%Average Variable Cost per Cubic Meter
0.6
0.45
0.3
0.15
00 1457 2914 4371 5828Time (Day)
Quantitative insights
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Stages of the ABHM Modeling ProcessVery limited support available for ABHM
model mapping & conceptualization
Model scope/boundary
selection.
Model time horizon
Identification of
key variables
Reference modes for
explanation
Causal loop diagrams
Stock & flow diagrams
Policy structure
diagrams
Group model building
Specification of
•Parameters
•Quantitative causal
relations
•Decision rules
Initial conditions
Reference mode
reproduction
Matching of
intermediate time
series
Matching of
observed data point
Constrain to sensible
bounds
Structural sensitivity
analysis
Specification &
investigation of
intervention scenarios
Investigation of
hypothetical external
conditions
Cross-scenario
comparisons (e.g.
CEA)
Parameter sensitivity
analysis
Cross-validation
Robustness&extreme case
tests
Unit checking
Problem domain tests
Formal analysis
Learning
environm
ents/Micr
oworlds/f
light
simulator
s
Qualitative &
Semi-quantitative insights
Infectives
New Infections
People Presenting
for Treatment
Waiting Times
+
+
Health Care Staff
-
Susceptibles-
Contacts ofSusceptibles with
Infectives
++
++
Normal and
Underweight
Weight
Overweight
Pregnant with GDM
History of GDMT2DM
Developing Obesity
Pregnant Normal
Weight Mothers
with No GDM
History
Completion of Pregnancy
to Non-Overweight State
Completion of GDM
Pregnancy
Women with History of
GDM Developing T2DM
Overweight Individuals Developing T2DM
Normal WeightIndividuals Developing
T2DM
Pregnant with
T2DM
New Pregnancies from
Mother with T2DMCompletion of Pregnancy for Mother with T2DM
Pregnant
Overweight
Mothers with No
GDM History
Pregnancies of
Overweight Women
Completion ofPregnancy to
Overweight State
Pregnancies ofNon-Overweight
Women
Pregnancies to Overweight
Mother Developing GDM
Pregnancies toNon-Overweight Mother
Developing GDM
Pregnant with
Pre-Existing History of
GDM
Pregnancies for
Women with GDM
Pregnancies DevelopingGDM from Mother with
GDM History
Completion of Non-GDMPregnancy for Woman with
History of GDM
Shedding Obesity
Pregnant WomenDeveloping PersistentOverweight/Obesity
Oveweight Babies Born
from T2DM Mothers
Pregnant Women with GDMthat Continue on toPostpartum T2DM
Normal Weight Babies Bornfrom Non-GDM Mother with
History of GDM
Overweight Babies Born fromNon-GDM Mother with
History of GDM
Normal Weight BabiesBorn from GDM
Pregnancy
Overweight Babies Born
from GDM Pregnancy
Overweight Babies Born toPregnant Normal Weight
Mothers
Overweight Babies Bornfrom Pregnant Overweight
Mothers
Normal Weight Babies Born to
Mothers without GDM
Normal Weight BabiesBorn from T2DM
Pregnancy
Pregnancy
Duration
<Birth Rate>
Normal Weight Babies Bornto Overweight Mothers
without GDM
Normal Weight
Deaths
Overweight
Deaths
T2DM Deaths
Deaths from Non-T2DMWomen with History of
GDM
2
2
2
2
( )
( )
S I h IIh
S I h IIh
Baseline50%60%70%80%90%95%98%100%Average Variable Cost per Cubic Meter
0.6
0.45
0.3
0.15
00 1457 2914 4371 5828Time (Day)
Quantitative insights
Comparatively strong support
available for ABHMs
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Challenges with Model Mapping Status Quo:Content
• Stock and flow and causal loop diagramming are inadequate to capture agent-based&hybrid features
• Examples of major missing features
– Separate characteristics of distinct agents
– Multi-level context
– Capturing of relevant agent environmental context
• One or more types of network links
• Spatial context
• Structured characterization of existing & dynamics with respect to categorical state
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• Limited to co-located individuals
• Hard to scale effectively to large participant pools– Privileged record keeper : power structure issues
– Difficulty seeing a projected diagram
– Constrained access to physical representation
• Difficulty in communicating to audiences with multiple languages
• Justification/stories are lost
• Commonly reliance on hand-built diagrams
Challenges with Model Mapping Status Quo:Process
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Agenda
Motivations
• Vision
– ABHM modeling language
– Collaborative model mapping environment
• Demonstration
• Limitations
• Future Work
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VISION: SOFTWARE SUPPORTINGCOLLABORATIVE MAPPING WITH ABHM
SPECIFIC LANGUAGE
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Central Elements of an Agent & Hybrid Qualitative Modeling
Language• Agent
• Connections (with polarity)
• Parameters
• Elements of State
– Stocks & flows
– Statecharts (state, actions, rules)• States
• Transitions
• Branches
• Final state
– Generic variable
• Interventions
• Environment
– Networks
– Geographic context
– Spatial context
• Flexible use of connections
• Decisions
• Indication of feedback loops
• Text annotations
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MANUAL USE OF OUR ABHM LANGUAGE
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Manual Use of the ABHM Language 1
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Manual Use of the ABHM Language 2
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Manual Use of the ABHM Language 3
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Manual Use of the ABHM Language 4
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Challenges of hand-built diagrams
• Messy
• Changes burdensome
• Sometimes unreliable
• Limited confines of space
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Agenda
Motivations
• Vision
ABHM modeling language
– Collaborative model mapping environment
• Demonstration
• Limitations
• Future Work
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Collaborative Software Vision for ABHM Mapping
• “Google docs/Office365” for ABHM mapping
• Easy way for multiple distributed users to collaborate while building up ABHM diagram
• Simple sharing mechanism
• Accessible by multiple types of devices
• Small, simple feature set
• Scalable with users
• Performant
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Agenda
Motivations
Vision
– ABHM modeling language
– Collaborative model mapping environment
• Demonstration
• Limitations
• Future Work
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DEMONSTRATION
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Accessing the System
• To follow along viewing the presentation
– Go to http://tinyurl.com/ICM2016ViewCL
– Press “Authenticate” button
– Watch
• To create a presentation
– Go to http://tinyurl.com/ICM2016CreateCL
– Press “Authenticate” button (if you didn’t above)
– Add variables, etc.
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Agenda
Motivations
• Vision
ABHM modeling language
Collaborative model mapping environment
Demonstration
• Limitations
• Future Work
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Limitations• Views only synched when complete item being
altered
• Missing items from tool set
– State entry points
– Events
• Lack of hierarchical “hiding” mechanisms
• Aesthetically limited diagrammatic conventions (e.g., for flows)
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Agenda
Motivations
Vision
ABHM modeling language
Collaborative model mapping environment
Demonstration
Limitations
• Future Work
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Agenda
Motivations
Vision
– ABHM modeling language
– Collaborative model mapping environment
Demonstration
Limitations
• Future Work
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Features Seeking to Add
• Multilingual toggle/superposition
• Option of recording explanatory metadata– Link creation: Justification/stories
– Link browsing & modification: Recording of multi-way discussion
• Pointing
• “Auditing” to record who changed what and at what time
• Possible combination with collaborative causal loop diagramming tool
• Expansion to support simulation
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Conclusions
• Traditional causal loop & stock / flow diagramming methods offer a poor fit for ABHM mapping
• Traditional diagramming methods for participatory modeling offer significant limitations
• We have created an OSS collaborative modeling tool supporting simultaneous, interactive causal loop diagramming by physically distributed or co-located participants using multiple device categories
• Despite limitations, early experience suggests great potential for such collaborative software
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Acknowledgements• Garrett Hansen• Undergraduate team, particularly
– Michael Ruffell– Matthew Hamilton– Corey Hickson– Benjamin Meyer– Michael Kelly– Bengin Lee– Connor Nettleton-Gooding– Shane Williamson– Jordan Wong– Chin Wang Lau– Angela Stankowski– Darvin Zhang
• Carl Gutwin
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Intermediate Agent-Based Modeling Bootcamp & Incubator 2016 (Aug. 22-27)• Detailed “hands-on” coverage of building, calibrating &
using agent-based & hybrid health models
• Diverse health application case studies
• Instructor & TA assistance in building up models customized to participant’s interest
• Dozens of example health models, step-by-step exercises building health ABHMs
• Discussion of modeling process best practices
• Coverage of sensitivity analysis, calibration, debugging
• Detailed tutorials on computational essentials