Supermodels – Gossip from the Catwalk John Walker Crime Trends Analysis John Walker Crime Trends...

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Transcript of Supermodels – Gossip from the Catwalk John Walker Crime Trends Analysis John Walker Crime Trends...

  • Slide 1
  • Supermodels Gossip from the Catwalk John Walker Crime Trends Analysis John Walker Crime Trends Analysis for the OESR/JMAG Justice Modelling Workshop Brisbane October 2005 Presents
  • Slide 2
  • Conference Themes: The development and use of models in social and justice organisations. The types of models that are of interest include: Simulation; Spatial; Temporal; Trajectory; Policy; Economic (cost-benefit analysis), and Resource allocation. Models Come in All Shapes and Sizes Petite Models e.g. Court-room Capacity models, Staffing Needs models Size 16-26 Models e.g. Justice System models, Accessibility models, Funding Allocation models B I B Supersize me Models e.g. Transnational Crime, Drugs & Money Laundering models
  • Slide 3
  • Every Aussie knows the fundamentals of Modelling. Aussie newspapers even the tabloids - are filled with databases and regression models, and Aussies study them carefully. Aussies recognise that this set of numbers represents: [a] a mediocre level of kicking accuracy, and [b] the regression equation: Total Score = 6 times the numbers of goals, plus the number of behinds. 11.17.83 is a total mystery even to mathematically-minded people elsewhere. To Americans its the date in 1983 when Magic Johnson scored 22 assists for Cleveland against the L.A. Lakers who cares! 11.17.83 ? 11.17.83 ? 11.17.83 ? We write this as: TS = 6*G + 1*B + 0 Databases, Algebra and Regression Equations Incomprehensible statistical stuff ? Aussies know more than they think they do!Aussies know more than they think they do!
  • Slide 4
  • Regression Analysis - natural way to look at data Just suppose we dont know exactly how the total match points were calculated.Just suppose we dont know exactly how the total match points were calculated. We might look at the table and think that the number of wins or the number of points for seem to be the most significant determinants of TMP.We might look at the table and think that the number of wins or the number of points for seem to be the most significant determinants of TMP. The charts support our first hypothesis rather than our second.The charts support our first hypothesis rather than our second. The R 2 measures how closely the points are to the lines.The R 2 measures how closely the points are to the lines. Hypothesis 1: TMP = 4 * Number of Wins + 0 Hypothesis 2:
  • Slide 5
  • The AFL Ladder is a Database 2-stage regression model: F=6*G + B + 0F=6*G + B + 0 TMP = 4*W + 2*D + 0TMP = 4*W + 2*D + 0 Club PWDLFA%Total Match Points West Coast Eagles980191969213332 Geelong9702103477413428 Richmond970292280611428 Melbourne960395886211124 Adelaide950478168511420 Sydney Swans95047147459620 Kangaroos95047778738920 Fremantle940585682210416 St Kilda940586283810316 Western Bulldogs940593193310016 Port Adelaide93157048238614 Hawthorn930683581910212 Brisbane Lions93068018759212 Essendon93067578858612 Carlton921681610387910 Collingwood9207757954798 Game characteristics Game Score Match Points Ladder position Fan Satisfaction
  • Slide 6
  • The Victoria Police Human Resource Allocation Model is a database with the same structure as the AFL ladder Variables selected on the basis of their common sense relationships with policing, their statistical explanatory power, their availability at the district level and the frequency with which they can be updated: - Total population; - Numbers of indigenous people - Persons aged 20 years and below; - Population growth rate of people below the age of 20 - Retail turnover - Family violence reports - Numbers of Liquor Licenses - Numbers of Black Spot intersections, - Numbers of Major Events, - Numbers of Stations with Police Cells, and - Point of Presence Service considerations (how many stations needed to cover the district).
  • Slide 7
  • The Victoria Police HRAM is also a two-stage regression model Stage 1 RegressionsStage 2 Regression Stage 1 RegressionsStage 2 Regression Equation 1 Equation 2 Equation 3 Equation 4 Equation 5 Community characteristics Crime & Road Trauma Calls on Police Police Resources Public Satisfaction
  • Slide 8
  • Forecasting in the Justice System. 1 3 2 4 5 6 1 7 8 9 1 3 2 4 5 6 1 7 8 9 1 3 2 4 5 6 1 7 8 9 1 3 2 4 5 6 1 7 8 9 1 3 2 4 5 6 1 7 8 9 1 3 2 4 5 6 1 7 8 9 1 3 2 4 5 6 1 7 8 9 The ProjectionsThe Budget The Scenarios The Workshop ?????? The Environmental Scan The Trend Analysis Trends in Community Characteristics Trends in Crime & Road Trauma Trends in Police Responses Trends in Courts Responses Trends in Correctional Populations Strategic Planning and Budgeting
  • Slide 9
  • Accessibility Modelling for Future Demand What do we want? Prisons for criminals! When do we want them? Now! Where do we want them? Not Near ME! DoJ What do we want? Emergency Services! When do we want them? Now! Where do we want them? Near ME! Location of services is important. How can Service Providers respond to these competing and conflicting demands? Trends in Settlement Patterns Trends in Regional Demands for Services Trends in Service Characteristics Equity & Access considerations Trends in Service Responses Strategic Planning and Budgeting
  • Slide 10
  • Time to think B-I-B? In the micro and mid-size sections of the scale, modelling to support evidence-based strategic planning is now common in the criminal justice system in VictoriaIn the micro and mid-size sections of the scale, modelling to support evidence-based strategic planning is now common in the criminal justice system in Victoria Staff allocation models police (Peter Kewu Li) Demand Projection and Service Accessibility models for prosecutions, civil and criminal courts, prisons, community corrections, sentencing and forensic services (See previous JMAG conferences) At the B-I-B end, the U.N. has been told for decades that global modelling of crime and justice is not possible. This myth was shattered in 2005.At the B-I-B end, the U.N. has been told for decades that global modelling of crime and justice is not possible. This myth was shattered in 2005.
  • Slide 11
  • Valuing the Global Illicit Drug Markets 1980-2004 Numerous attempts to quantify Illicit Drugs markets in the past,Numerous attempts to quantify Illicit Drugs markets in the past, The Financial Action Task Force (FATF) estimated in the late 1980s, sales of cocaine, heroin and cannabis approximated $124 billion per year in the US and Europe, equivalent today to some $200 billionThe Financial Action Task Force (FATF) estimated in the late 1980s, sales of cocaine, heroin and cannabis approximated $124 billion per year in the US and Europe, equivalent today to some $200 billion OECD, FATF Working Group on Statistical and Methods, Narcotics Money Laundering - Assessment of Scale of the Problem, 1989, Financial Action Task Force on Money Laundering, report, 1990. Based on 1995 drug production estimates, UNDCP arrived at a global estimate of $85 billion to $1000 billion [1]. Given this broad range and the uncertain validity of assumptions made, UNDCPs 1997 World Drug Report, spoke of a likely turnover of around $400 billion [2]. Questioned by some experts as possibly too high. However, no alternative calculations were provided.Based on 1995 drug production estimates, UNDCP arrived at a global estimate of $85 billion to $1000 billion [1]. Given this broad range and the uncertain validity of assumptions made, UNDCPs 1997 World Drug Report, spoke of a likely turnover of around $400 billion [2]. Questioned by some experts as possibly too high. However, no alternative calculations were provided. [1] UNDCP, Economic and Social Consequences of Drug Abuse and Illicit Trafficking, (Technical Series 1997). [2] UNDCP, World Drug Report, (Oxford University Press 1997). In the late 1990s, the Financial Action Task Force experts could not agree on the most appropriate methodological approach - top-down or bottom-up. Recommendations made to countries to improve data collection systems and to undertake drug market estimates at the national level.In the late 1990s, the Financial Action Task Force experts could not agree on the most appropriate methodological approach - top-down or bottom-up. Recommendations made to countries to improve data collection systems and to undertake drug market estimates at the national level. OECD Financial Action Task Force, Report of the FATF Ad Hoc Group on Estimating the Magnitude of Money Laundering on Assessing Alternative Methodologies for Estimating Revenues from Illicit Drugs (2000).
  • Slide 12
  • Valuing the Global Illicit Drug Markets - 2005 Information on the value of the drug sector and consequently the analysis of various aspects of the implication of money laundering was a gap in the otherwise comprehensive coverage of the World Drug Report.Information on the value of the drug sector and consequently the analysis of various aspects of the implication of money laundering was a gap in the otherwise comprehensive coverage of the World Drug Report. One of the reasons for this is that the measurement of such activities is difficult and prone to criticism. It is, however, a vital element of the global drug control equation.One of the reasons for this is that the measurement of such activities is difficult and prone to criticism. It is, however, a vital element of the global drug control equation. Project Outputs:Project Outputs: An estimate of the value of the retail and wholesale markets for heroin/opium, coca/cocaine, cannabis, and Amphetamine-Type Substances, a report documenting these results and methodologies used to derive them, a data base, complete documentation of the data base, an evaluation o