Super 7 Picks - June 2018

Techno Funda Report - June 2018

BP Equities Private Limited (www.bpwealth.com)

B P W E A L T H

2nd June, 2018

Research Team [email protected]

022-61596406

Index

Company Recommendation Price (Rs) Entry Range (Rs) Target Price (Rs) Stop Loss (Rs) Page No.

Bajaj Auto Ltd. Buy 2897 CMP 3220 2740 1

Coal India Buy 295 CMP-285 340 272 2

Colgate Palmolive (I) Ltd. Buy 1247 1230-1200 1380 1150 3

Equitas Holdings Ltd Buy 165 CMP-159 184 152 4

Larsen & Toubro Ltd Buy 1372 CMP-1340 1530 1270 5

Multi Commodity Exchange of India Ltd Buy 840 CMP-810 930 770 6

State Bank Of India Ltd Buy 267 CMP-257 297 245 7



B P W E A L T H

Performance Tracker

Performance Tracker Jan 2018

Sr. No. Company Recommendation Reco Price (Rs) Target Price (Rs) Status

1 Cummins India Ltd Buy 902 1040 Exit at 911

2 Dr Reddy Laboratories Ltd Buy 2414-2360 2850 Profit booked at 2518

3 Exide Industries Ltd Buy 223-218 260 Profit booked at 233.2

4 GIC Housing Finance Ltd Buy 445-435 508 Exit at 444

5 Gujarat State Fert & Chem Ltd Buy 156-150 183 Partial booked at 163

6 Tata Consultancy Services Ltd Buy 2701-2650 2980 Target Achieved

7 Tata Motors Ltd Buy 432 500 Stoploss Triggered

Techno Funda Return For Jan, 2018 : 1.71% , Nifty Return For Jan, 2018 : 5.1%

Performance Tracker Feb 2018


1 ABB India Ltd Buy 1570-1530 1790 Exit at 1525

2 Bharti Airtel Ltd Buy 423-410 480 Exit at 427.75

3 Castrol India Ltd Buy 196-190 233 Exit at 201.8

4 ICICI Prudential Life Insurance Co Buy 415-400 480 Exit at 408.15

5 ITC Ltd Buy 271-265 302 Exit at 264

6 JSW Steel Ltd Buy 309-300 358 Exit at 305.5

7 Tata Consultancy Services Ltd Buy 2880 3250 Not Initiated

Techno Funda Return For Feb, 2018 : 0.66% , Nifty Return For Feb, 2018 : 0.0%

-0.8%

5.2%

-0.4%-1.9%

4.1%

-2.9%

4.0%5.1%

0.0%

-2.4%

4.4%

-0.4%

0.9%

4.0%

-2.8%

5.0%5.9%

-0.3%

1.0% 1.7%0.7% 1.4% 1.7%

-1.9%-5%-3%-1%1%3%5%7%9%

11%13%15%

Jun-17 Jul-17 Aug-17 Sep-17 Oct-17 Nov-17 Dec-17 Jan-18 Feb-18 Mar-18 Apr-18 May-18

Nifty Return Techno Funda Return



B P W E A L T H

Techno Funda Return For March, 2018 : 1.40% , Nifty Return For March, 2018 : -2.40%

Performance Tracker March 2018


1 Castrol India Ltd Buy 201-193 233 Profit booked at 205

2 Engineers India Ltd Buy 168-163 195 Stoploss Triggered

3 HCL Technologies Ltd Buy 932 1075 Profit booked at 969

4 Mahindra & Mahindra Ltd Buy 740 830 Exit at 739

5 Shriram Transport Fin Corp Ltd Buy 1369-1330 1530 Profit booked at 1440

6 UPL Ltd Buy 721 815 Exit at 730

7 Voltas Ltd Buy 625 730 Exit at 621

Performance Tracker May 2018


1 Amara Raja Batteries Ltd Buy 840 960 Stoploss Triggered

2 Gail (India) Ltd Buy 339 380 Stoploss Triggered 3 Hero MotoCorp Ltd Buy 3650-3550 4030 Stoploss Triggered

4 Multi Commodity Exchange of India Ltd Buy 760-740 860 Target Achieved

5 Oil & Natural Gas Corporation Ltd Buy 189 220 Stoploss Triggered

6 PNB Housing Finance Ltd Buy 1283-1240 1395 Stoploss Triggered

7 Ujjivan Financial Services Ltd Buy 385-375 430 Profit booked at 397

Techno Funda Return For April, 2018 : 1.71% , Nifty Return For April, 2018 : 4.4%

Techno Funda Return For May, 2018 : -1.90% , Nifty Return For May, 2018 : -0.4%

Performance Tracker April 2018 Sr. No. Company Recommendation Reco Price (Rs) Target Price (Rs) Status

1 Exide Industries Ltd Buy 225-218 265 Not Initiated 2 Larsen & Toubro Ltd Buy 1336 1520 Exit at 1378

3 LIC Housing Finance Ltd Buy 539-525 630 Exit at 542

4 Marico Ltd Buy 325-315 376 Exit at 321

5 MOIL Ltd Buy 201 233 Profit booked at 217

6 National Aluminium Ltd Buy 65-62 79 Not Initiated 7 Oil & Natural Gas Corporation Ltd Buy 180 210 Exit at 181

2nd Feb ,

Buy

Auto & Ancillaries

Technical View The stock has formed Morning star a bullish reversal price pattern which suggests the recent trough to act as strong support and short term trend to turn bullish. The recent trough coincides with 78.6% retracement of its up move from 2510 to 3468. Also the volumes activity has increased substantially which is higher than last many weeks which increases the reliability of the recent trough to act as strong support for short term trend. RSI has formed positive divergence with price which is a bullish signal and compliments the bullish view of price. We recommend to Buy BAJAJ-AUTO at CMP with a stop loss of 2740 for the target of 3220 in short term.

Investment Rationale Market share regain with higher than industry growth in domestic 2-W

Bajaj Auto’s market share in the domestic 2-W market has been on a declining trend since FY07. Market share woes continued in FY18, with Bajaj Auto’s domestic 2-W market share declining further from 11.4% to 9.8%. This is attributable to subdued performance of new launches, weaker rural pres-ence (compared to peers) & absence of scooter portfolio. Going ahead, the management expects to outpace the double-digit industry growth (~10-11%) on the back of 1) new Discover that is expected to grow from ~18,000 units to ~25,000 units per month, 2) pick-up in Pulsar volumes, post launch of new 150 cc variant and 3) strong demand for CT- 100 post price cut of | 3000-3500.We expect with higher than industry growth can help company to regain market share

Exports, 3-W provide comfort

In the domestic 3-W segment, the management guidance on demand remains strong, given that new permits have been released in Telangana, Delhi, Bangalore and existing growth potential in Ma-harashtra (ex- Mumbai). The management has guided for a monthly run-rate of 60,000- 65,000 units for 3Ws (domestic + exports). We expect ~8% CAGR for 3- W in FY18-20E. On the export front, the management expects 1.9 mn units in FY19E, which, we believe, is achievable. This is on the back of a revival in Nigeria volumes (stabilised at 30,000 units) post oil rebound. We expect export volumes to grow at 14% CAGR in FY18-20E

Execution Data

Target (Rs) 3220

Stop loss (Rs) 2740

Buying Range (Rs) CMP

Last Close Price (Rs) 2897

% change Weekly 5.0

Weekly Oscillator Direction

13 WMA Upwards

21 WMA Downwards

50 WMA Downwards

RSI Buy Mode

MACD Buy Mode

Bajaj Auto Ltd.

1

B P W E A L T H

Sector Outlook Positive

Stock

BSE code 532977

NSE Symbol BAJAJ-AUTO

Bloomberg BJAUT IN

Reuters BAJA.BO

Key Data

Nifty 10,696

52WeekH/L(Rs) 3,468 / 2,695

O/s Shares (Rs mn) 289

Market Cap (Rs bn) 837

Face Value (Rs) 10

Average volume

3 months 3,54,496

6 months 3,44,879

1 year 3,12,576

Technical View (Weekly Chart)

Support at rising trend line

Resuming up move after taking support at down sloping trend line

Support at 78.6% retracemen near previous trough

RSI has formed positive divergence

2nd Feb ,

Buy


Mining

Technical View The stock has reversed after forming bullish reversal candlestick near 61.8% retracement of its up move from 234 to 317 which suggests recent trough to act as strong support and short term trend to turn bullish. After reversal the stock has surpassed a down sloping trend line which suggests the stock to resume its previous up move. Also the breakout has come with a rise in volume which in-creases the reliability of the breakout. RSI had earlier formed positive reversal and now has sur-passed a down sloping trend line which is a bullish signal and compliments the bullish view in price. We recommend to Buy COALINDIA in the range of CMP-285 with a stop loss of 272 for the target of 340 in short term. Investment Rationale Operating Leverage Benefits coupled with better Price Realisations During FY18, Coal India (COAL IN) adjusted EBITDA (ex-OBR) grew 107% YoY to INR 100.6bn, well above industry estimates of INR 56.9bn. This was primarily led by 1) Higher realization, up 7%, 2) Volume up 5% to 159mn tonnes& FSA volume up9%, 3) Reduction in operating cost,and 4) A rise in other operating income by 141%,led by levy of evacuation charges (full-year impactto be visible in-FY19). Employee expenses included a one-time hit of INR 73.8bn owing to provisionsrelated to an increase in gratuity ceiling. EBITDA/tonne came in at INR 631, up 96%. Blended realization rose by 7% to INR 1,573, aided by a price rise in January 2018, and higher premium on eAuction coal UDAY – A key game changer Indian power sector has undergone a huge transformation in the last 7 -8 years – be it in addition, bringing renewable at the centre of power sector development or taking electricity to the remotest corner of the country. During FY 06-16, increased private sector participation in the power sector has record capacity addition. Govt. has announced a number of policy initiatives to investment in the sec-tor. Basic infrastructure has been laid to in electricity demand of the country which is currently mere one third of the world average. However, all these initiatives have not resulted into higher electricity demand which is showing almost a flat curve since last 3 – 4 drastically gone down from around 10% to 2% in these years. ‘UDAY’ – scheme launched mainly for the much needed revival of the DIS-COMs thereby helping other stakeholders in the value chain. The potential to provide a permanent resolution of past as well as potential future issues of the sector and empowers the utilities to break even in next 2 – 3 years. We believe, the electricity demand reported by CEA is not the true require-ment of the country but the amount of electricity that DISCOMs can procure. UDAY will enable DIS-COMs to buy more power in the future to unlock the true electricity demand of the country. Conse-quently, this will give boost to coal based power generation and in turn coal demand will increase.

Execution Data

Target (Rs) 340

Stop loss (Rs) 272

Buying Range (Rs) CMP-285


% change Weekly 6.91


13 WMA Upwards

21 WMA Upwards

50 WMA Upwards RSI Buy Mode MACD Sideways Mode

Coal India Ltd.

2

B P W E A L T H


Stock

BSE code 533278

NSE Symbol COALINDIA

Bloomberg COAL IN

Reuters COAL.BO

Key Data

Nifty 10,696

52WeekH/L(Rs) 317/234

O/s Shares (Rs mn) 6,207

Market Cap (Rs bn) 1,825

Face Value (Rs) 10

Average volume

3 months 3,345,220

6 months 4,305,230

1 year 4,473,830

Surpassed falling trend line

RSI has surpassed down sloping trend line

2nd Feb ,

Buy


FMCG Execution Data

Target (Rs) 1380

Stop Loss (Rs) 1150

Buying Range (Rs) 1230-1200


% change Weekly (0.82)


13 WMA Upwards

21 WMA Upwards

50 WMA Upwards

RSI Buy Mode

MACD Buy Mode

Technical View After a sharp up move the stock underwent a sideways correction and remained sideways for the past ten months and now has registered breakout from this sideways channel which is a bullish sig-nal for medium term trend. Also breakout has accomplished with surge in volumes which increases the reliability of the breakout. RSI had earlier formed positive reversal with price and now has sur-passed down sloping trend line which is a bullish signal compliments the bullish view of price. We recommend to Buy COLPAL in the range of 1230-1200 with a stop loss of 1150 for the target of 1380 in short term. Investment Rationale

Low Market Penetration

Market penetration of modern oral care products in India is among the lowest in the world. Oral care product consumption per gram is much lower in India compared to some emerging market peers. Less than 10% of Indians brush their teeth twice a day, a habit which is not widely prevalent even in urban areas. Over 325mn people in the country do not use toothpaste at all. Market penetration of toothpaste in rural areas is only ~63%. Low market penetration data above signifies that as awareness increases and incomes rise, the oral care category can witness strong multi-year growth, in terms of volume as well as premiumisation of the segment, something which is evident in recent years. Usage of toothpastes for sensitive teeth, sensitive gums and teeth whitening as well as mouthwash has also picked up in recent years

Wider product portfolio and continuing category premiumisation

With dedicated focus and support from its parent, Colgate-Palmolive, the largest oral care player in the world and by far the most successful oral care player in emerging markets, CPIL has the widest product portfolio compared to peers in oral care. The product range, starting from niche pre-mium categories to the lower-end toothpastes and toothpowder, is unmatched. CPIL is the market leader across toothpaste, toothbrush as well as toothpowder categories. Wide portfolio enables the company to take advantage of whichever category is growing faster, unlike peers who have a weak portfolio.

Colgate Palmolive (India) Ltd.

3

B P W E A L T H


Stock

BSE code 500830

NSE Symbol COLPAL

Bloomberg CLGT IN

Reuters COLG.BO

Key Data

Nifty 10,696

52WeekH/L(Rs) 1,285/976



Face Value (Rs) 1

Average volume

3 months 475,440

6 months 375,230

1 year 362,930

Breakout from sideways channel of ten months

RSI had earlier formed bullish reversal and has surpassed down sloping trend

2nd Feb ,

Buy


BFSI

Technical View The stock had earlier given breakout from long term channel which is a bullish signal for medium term trend. Now it has reversed after taking support at the internal trend line and is expected to re-sume its up move. Also the breakout has accomplished with rise in volumes which increases the reli-ability of the breakout. RSI had earlier given a bullish crossover and is now resuming its up move after converging around its average which is a bullish signal and compliments the bullish view of price. We recommend to Buy EQUITAS in the range of CMP-159 with a stop loss of 152 for the target of 184 in short term. Investment Rationale Deposit accretion to cushion margin Diversification of the asset book in favour of secured lending comes with a risk of lower yielding as-sets. The only lever to protect margin is to lower cost of funds. Hence, access to such deposits be-comes a critical differentiator. Equitas have identified low-cost deposits as a core focus area. Equitas has so far done a better job in garnering a higher proportion of low-cost deposits. This has helped it reduce its cost of deposits to 6.5 percent from 7.8 percent at the end of last year and overall cost of borrowings to 8 percent from 9.2 percent. MSE segment key to asset quality fortunes The company has invested the most in seeding new businesses in the MSE segment including the recently launched working capital/business banking products. Already at ~39% of loan AUM, the for-tunes of this segment are critical to overall asset quality health.

Execution Data

Target (Rs) 184

Stop loss (Rs) 152





13 WMA Upwards

21 WMA Upwards

50 WMA Upwards RSI Buy Mode MACD Buy Mode

Equitas Holdings Ltd.

4

B P W E A L T H


Stock

BSE code 539844

NSE Symbol EQUITAS

Bloomberg EQUITAS IN

Reuters EQHL.BO

Key Data

Nifty 10,696

52WeekH/L(Rs) 184/130



Face Value (Rs) 10

Average volume

3 months 1,808,880

6 months 2,252,940

1 year 2,079,090

Breakout from channel line

2nd Feb ,

Buy

Capital Goods

Technical View

The stock had earlier registered breakout from its multi-month resistance zone with surge in volumes which is bullish signal for medium term. The stock has reversed taking support at rising trend line which suggests recent trough to act as a strong support and stock is expected to resume its previous up move. RSI had earlier formed positive reversal and is now forming higher lows which is a bullish signal and compliments the bullish view of price. We recommend to Buy LT in the range CMP-1340 with a stop loss of 1270 for the target of 1530 in short term. Investment Rationale

Diversified business with strong order book

L&T has diversified presence across sectors like infrastructure, power, heavy engineering, electrical & automation, hydrocarbons, infrastructure development projects, IT and technology services, finan-cial services, metallurgical and material handling, industrial products and machinery, shipbuilding and realty. Infrastructure, hydrocarbons and power segment are the leading revenue contributors. L&T’s consolidated order book stood at Rs. 2.63 lakh crore as on June 30, 2017 (2.4 times the revenues of FY2017).

Rs.30 trillion of opportunity to realize over next six years

There is scope of ~Rs.30 trillion of announced government spending programs where L&T would participate. Based on L&T’s capabilities, we expect L&T to bid for Rs.20 trillion of such orders. At a reasonable 15% hit rate in such orders, we expect L&T to win Rs2.9 trillion of orders over the next six years (implies an arithmetic average of Rs500 bn of orders per annum over the next six years). The order book witnessed improvement of 0.8% over previous year. The order inflows in Q1 FY2018 were largely driven by orders from the infrastructure segment (of Rs. ~15,000 crore). The healthy order book provides meaningful revenue visibility for the company.

Execution Data

Target (Rs) 1530

Stop loss (Rs) 1270





13 WMA Upwards

21 WMA Upwards

50 WMA Upwards

RSI Buy Mode

MACD Sideways Mode

Larsen & Toubro Ltd.

5

B P W E A L T H


Stock

BSE code 500510

NSE Symbol LT

Bloomberg LT IN

Reuters LART.BO

Key Data

Nifty 10,696

52WeekH/L(Rs) 1,470 / 1,108



Face Value (Rs) 2

Average volume

3 months 20,81,968

6 months 25,71,136

1 year 24,26,594


RSI has formed positive reversal

Resuming up move after taking support at up sloping trend line

2nd Feb ,

Buy


Diversified

Technical View The stock has reversed sharply after consolidating near the lower trend line which is drawn parallel to the upper trend line which suggests the recent trough to act as strong support for short term trend. Also the stock has registered breakout from a Double Bottom a bullish reversal price pattern which indicates the recent trough to act as strong support and short term trend to turn bullish. The breakout has accompanied with rise in volumes which increases the reliability of the breakout. RSI had earlier formed positive divergence and now has surpassed down sloping trend line which is a bullish signal and compliments the bullish view of price. We recommend to BUY MCX in the range of CMP-810 with a stop loss of 770 for the target of 930 in short term. Investment Rationale

“Winner Takes All” Principle

Currently MCX has been able to capture a market share of approx. 90% and it works in a industry where the principal that applies is ‘Winner takes all’. The leading exchange is the obvious choice of traders, given the assurance for their biggest pre-requisite for choosing any exchange – liquidity. As a result, the player with the highest market share is a guaranteed winner - liquidity drives liquidity. Even in the most turbulent of times over the last 12-18 months, when the parent’s existence was in deep waters on issues of fraud around National Spot Exchange (NSEL), the exchange managed to retain its share. Additionally, it has remained without a fulltime MD & CEO since May 2014 when Mr. Manoj Vaish resigned after just three months. This is a reflection of the winner-takes-all nature of the busi-ness model.

Operating Leverage benefits yet to be visible

The cost structure of MCX mainly comprises of fixed costs i.e. approx 2/3rd of MCX’s operating costs which includes fixed software contract charges, employee cost, telecom charges various other fixed costs. This clearly shows the scope of operating leverage in the business. And also globally, the data has proved that increasing in volumes and revenues is much faster than in operating costs and with a portfolio of maximum fixed costs, the business will have a strong operating leverage potential. There-fore, we expect MCX to see a non linear growth arising from the increase in volumes due to the com-modity option trading launch on the exchange.

Execution Data

Target (Rs) 930

Stop loss (Rs) 770





13 WMA Upwards

21 WMA Upwards

50 WMA Downwards RSI Buy Mode MACD Buy Mode

Multi Commodity Exch Of India Ltd.

6

B P W E A L T H


Stock

BSE code 534091

NSE Symbol MCX

Bloomberg MCX IN

Reuters MCEI.BO

Key Data

Nifty 10,696

52WeekH/L(Rs) 1,182 / 665



Face Value (Rs) 10

Average volume

3 months 6,23,407

6 months 6,23,491

1 year 4,65,609

RSI has surpassed down sloping trend line

Double Bottom near Lower parallel trend line

2nd Feb ,

Buy


BFSI

Technical View The stock has reversed sharply from the demand zone and has registered breakout from a Double Bottom a bullish reversal price pattern which indicates the recent trough to act as strong support and short term trend to turn bullish. The breakout has accompanied with rise in volumes which increases the reliability of the breakout. MACD has given a bullish crossover after long amount of time which is a bullish signal and compliments the bullish view of price. We recommend to Buy SBIN in the range of CMP-257 with a stop loss of 245 for the target of 297 in short term. Investment Rationale Largest bank in India by all metrics, strong deposit franchise SBI has a pan-India presence with the highest branch network of 24,017 branches as well as 59,000 ATM’s all over India. SBI being the largest bank in India both by asset size (Rs 27 lakh crore) and profitability has played a lead role in the banking space in setting interest rate, products. Owing to a strong liability franchise, its cost of fund (sub 5.38%) is among lowest in industry, enabling SBI to earn such strong NIM of 2.50% on such a large base (domestic NIM - 2.67%).It has managed CASA ratio of approx. 45.68% and retail deposit >80% of deposit, which is stable in nature. Its credit grew strong in the past at 11.3% CAGR from Rs.7,50,362 crore in FY09 to Rs.21,85,967 crore in FY17 and it also covers a market share of around 25% in deposits and advances including its securities. It has been moderating since FY15. Going ahead, with retail and better rated corporate segment in focus, we expect credit growth to stay moderate. NPA is improving; Retail Loans Increasing We have also seen an improvement in the Gross NPA and Net NPA since the previous quarter to 10.91% and 5.73% respectively as well as the provision coverage ratio has also been seen improving to 66.17% on YoY and QoQ basis. SBI has exposure in across various segments with retail and cor-porate segments being the major contributors. In the recent developments, the bank has given more focus on the retail segment through various channels. This will eventually lead to a boost in the sec-tor leading to further improvement in the net interest margins of the bank. Currently, SBI has 30% of its domestic loan book to the personal segment with housing loans accounting for majority. The home loans provided by SBI covers a market share of 32.12% of the total home loan market. The average LTV ratio for March 18 is 53.46% is quite good compared to the markets where as total Personal segment has a very low NPA ratio of 0.86% as of March 2018. This growth is expected to continue in the future due to recent PMAY to provide affordable housing to the people of India. With the current economic rise of the country, the whole banking sector is expected to improve.

Execution Data

Target (Rs) 297

Stop loss (Rs) 245



% change Weekly (0.09)


13 WMA Upwards

21 WMA Upwards

50 WMA Downwards RSI Buy Mode MACD Buy Mode

State Bank Of India Ltd.

7

B P W E A L T H


Stock

BSE code 500112

NSE Symbol SBIN

Bloomberg SBIN IN

Reuters SBI.BO

Key Data

Nifty 10,696

52WeekH/L(Rs) 351/ 232



Face Value (Rs) 10

Average volume

3 months 23,841,272

6 months 23,180,661

1 year 21,336,689

MACD has given a bullish crossover

Double Bottom near demand zone

Research Desk Tel: +91 22 61596406

Disclaimer Appendix

Institutional Sales Desk Tel: +91 22 61596403/04/05

Analyst (s) holding in the Stock : Nil

Analyst (s) Certification:

We analysts and the authors of this report, hereby certify that all of the views expressed in this research report accurately reflect our per-sonal views about any and all of the subject issuer (s) or securities. We also certify that no part of our compensation was, is, or will be directly or indirectly related to the specific recommendation (s) or view (s) in this report. Analysts aren't registered as research analysts by FINRA and might not be an associated person of the BP Equities Pvt. Ltd. (Institutional Equities).

General Disclaimer

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BP EQUITIES Pvt. Ltd have exercised due diligence in checking the correctness and authenticity of the information contained herein, so far as it relates to current and historical information, but do not guarantee its accuracy or completeness. The opinions expressed are our current opinions as of the date appearing in the material and may be subject to change from time to time. Prospective investors are cau-tioned that any forward looking statement are not predictions and are subject to change without prior notice.

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Super 7 Picks - June 2018

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