Sunny with a Chance
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Transcript of Sunny with a Chance
Sunny with a Chance
Elwynn TaylorWeather Impacts on Agriculture
Urban-AgAcademyAg-101
Geislers, 3 miles East
Prairie & ClimateThe Wealth of the Earth
Highest Productivity KnownHighest Carbon Sequestration
35% Grass, 35% Legume, 30% other
40% Corn, 30% Soybean
Bio-Fuel (Utah, 1944)
• Something like our 8N• Our food acres increased 50%
Ballard Springs PondMillville silt-loam
• Reduction of farm land• Fuel market competes with feed
market
of citrus’, sandwiches, & climates change
In 1968 cooling was a major concern, so was population (Paul Ehrlich). “The greatest threat is our energy hunger, I ordered a lunch delivered, from 1400 miles away.” Dr. Hyrum Johnson
Global Energy Demand is Rising Rapidly Because Energy Consumption and Income are Linked
Energy Demand Reduction?
Energy Farming
Bio-FuelReduce Atmospheric Carbon?Convert coal to liquid fuel?
Economy: Fuel or Food?
Alternatives: Hydro, Wind, Solar, Nuclear
Production Outlook
Grain or Fiber?• Improved yield–Maize U. S. yield 1960-2009
x3.0– Rice World yield 1960-2009
x2.3– Rice Philippines yield
x3.1– Rice U. S. yield
x2.3 I S U
1860 1880 1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000 2020 20400
102030405060708090
100110120130140150160170180190200 U.S. Corn (Maize) Bu/acre
1930 25 BPA
1979 100 BPA
1956 50 BPA
2030 200 BPA
I S U
The Crop TrendTrends changeTrend & Volatility
Trend is Technology + Climate Change
Volatility is Weather + Climate Cycles
1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 20200
20
40
60
80
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120
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Resource Capture
Almost 60 in 1894, 121 in 2007
1950-1993 Precipitation
Precipitation Change for Iowa
1880 1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000 20200
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f(x) = 0.0517145900733844 x − 69.0758854257082
Ames, IA Precipitation by year 1893-2007
100+ yr Precipitation
Increased Stream Flow:Increased # of Flood-prone Years
1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 20200
500
1000
1500
2000
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3000
3500
f(x) = 6.93204241599198 x − 12627.4395898116
Turkey River at Garber, IA
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34
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67
8
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10
Warm Winters Cold Winters
COLD
WARM
http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/oa/climate/research/sst/weekly-sst.php
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La Niña Outlook 9Mar 2012• 30% Chance La Niña persists into Summer• 60% Chance El Niño begins immediately • 10% Chance of Neutral ? ?
• Minimal chance of Neutral SOI• 30% Chance of La Niña with US Yield < 148 BPA $6.60• 60% Chance of El Niño with US Yield > 168 BPA $5.00• 10% Chance of neutral with US Trend+ 164 BPA $5.15• $ from Wisner 2/9/2012• http://www.extension.iastate.edu/agdm/crops/outlook/cornbalancesheet.pdf
Based on the evolution of recent atmosphere-ocean conditions, I am dropping the odds from 50/50 to less than 30% for continued La Niña conditions into the upcoming summer. In fact, there is a distinct possibility that we could see a switch to El Niño by mid-2012. … ([email protected]), (303) 497-6340
Soy 41bpa $11.95, 43.5bpa $10.60, 45.5bpa $10.35
Today DEC corn $5.60 May corn $6.50
Madden-Julian
• Contributing to the weather today• wattsupwiththat.com/2010/12/22/the-madden-julian-oscillation/
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• mesonet.agron.iastate.edu
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http://www.spc.noaa.gov/climo/reports/120629_rpts.html
IL
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IL (historical)
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IL (historical)
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Outlook• Warm through Sat, then not as warm• Thunder storms possible• Then through 24 Mar:
• Based on current atmosphere-ocean conditions, I believe the odds for this La Niña event to continue right through early summer (June-July 2012) are just about 50%. Beyond that, it is worth noting that four of the ten two-year La Niña events between 1900 and 2009 ended up as a three-year event, so I would put the odds for this to occur in 2012-13 at 40% right now.
• http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/enso/mei/