Sunny Optical Technology - gw.com.cnrdfile.gw.com.cn/F8/38/F83807AA1ED2557710A09A9437643C9E.pdf ·...

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Please read carefully the important disclosures at the end of this report Equity Research October 24, 2013 Sunny Optical Technology Competition triggers another investment cycle Initial Coverage Initiate with HOLD Investment positives Sunny Optical leads the China smartphone camera market, mainly thanks to its technologically advanced higher pixel count lenses and COB packaging. Since pixel migration carries diminishing marginal effects and more manufacturers have entered the COB technology space, its competitive edges are weakening. We expect to see much higher competition in the HCM market, leading to a margin squeeze; the price competition in 5MP (megapixel) HCM is a warning signal. Financials We believe Sunny Optical will benefit from pixel migration. However, more R&D and capex expansion may weigh on its margins. Our earnings projections are below consensus as we factor in lower margin assumptions. Due to capex expansion from 2013, this mix may weigh on margins before advanced technology investment pays off. We thus forecast an operating margin decline in 2013 to 8.1% (from 9.26% in 2012) before slightly rebounding to 8.7% in both 2014 and 2015. Valuation and recommendation We initiate coverage of Sunny with a HOLD rating and a target price of HK$7.92, based on our target P/E of 13.2x 2014e EPS. Our P/E multiple reflects strong China smartphone demand on camera upgrades; however it also takes into account disruptions from intensifying competition and ASP pressure. Sunny Optical’s P/E has averaged 12x, so our price target still represents a 10% premium to its historical average P/E as we believe the targeted valuation should reflect the company’s growth outlook both in terms of sales and ROE for the next 12 months. Risks Key downside risks: 1) greater margin contraction in the camera module business due to slower pixel migration and rising industry competition; 2) an inventory correction in China smartphones; and, 3) lower-than-expected handset camera lens orders from Samsung. Key upside risks: stronger-than-expected demand from China and global brand customers; and, higher-than-expected revenue contribution from 8MP+ products. Ticker 02382.HK Last close HK$7.97 CICC target HK$7.92 52wk price range HK$11.78~4.13 Market cap (bn) HK$9 Daily value (mn) HK$129.26 Shares outstanding (mn) 1,097 Free float (%) 55 Daily volume (mn sh) 16.18 Business sector Electronic Components (Rmb mn) 2011A 2012A 2013E 2014E Revenue 2,498 3,984 5,976 6,753 (+/-) 37.4% 59.5% 50.0% 13.0% Net profit 215 346 430 521 (+/-) 49.3% 60.9% 24.3% 21.3% EPS 0.22 0.35 0.39 0.48 BPS 1.68 1.93 2.09 2.49 DPS 0.04 0.07 0.06 0.07 CPS 0.07 0.26 0.22 0.51 P/E 30.0 18.5 16.0 13.1 P/B 3.8 3.3 3.0 2.5 EV/EBITDA 19.2 12.7 10.4 8.6 Dividend yield 0.7% 1.1% 1.0% 1.2% ROAA 9.7% 12.9% 11.8% 11.4% ROAE 13.4% 19.2% 20.4% 20.8% Source: Bloomberg, company data, CICC Research Haofei CHEN Andrew LIN [email protected] SFC CE Ref: AJD676 [email protected] 57 100 143 186 229 272 Oct-2012 Jan-2013 Apr-2013 Jul-2013 Oct-2013 Relative Value (%) 02382.HK HSCEI

Transcript of Sunny Optical Technology - gw.com.cnrdfile.gw.com.cn/F8/38/F83807AA1ED2557710A09A9437643C9E.pdf ·...

Page 1: Sunny Optical Technology - gw.com.cnrdfile.gw.com.cn/F8/38/F83807AA1ED2557710A09A9437643C9E.pdf · Sunny Optical Technology ... CCM capacity projection ... Sunny Optical looks likely

Please read carefully the important disclosures at the end of this report

Equity Research

October 24, 2013

Sunny Optical Technology Competition triggers another investment cycle Initial Coverage Initiate with HOLD

Investment positives Sunny Optical leads the China smartphone camera market, mainly thanks to its technologically advanced higher pixel count lenses and COB packaging. Since pixel migration carries diminishing marginaleffects and more manufacturers have entered the COB technologyspace, its competitive edges are weakening. We expect to see muchhigher competition in the HCM market, leading to a margin squeeze;the price competition in 5MP (megapixel) HCM is a warning signal.

Financials We believe Sunny Optical will benefit from pixel migration. However,more R&D and capex expansion may weigh on its margins. Our earnings projections are below consensus as we factor in lower marginassumptions. Due to capex expansion from 2013, this mix may weighon margins before advanced technology investment pays off. We thus forecast an operating margin decline in 2013 to 8.1% (from 9.26% in 2012) before slightly rebounding to 8.7% in both 2014 and 2015.

Valuation and recommendation We initiate coverage of Sunny with a HOLD rating and a target price of HK$7.92, based on our target P/E of 13.2x 2014e EPS. Our P/E multiple reflects strong China smartphone demand on cameraupgrades; however it also takes into account disruptions from intensifying competition and ASP pressure. Sunny Optical’s P/E has averaged 12x, so our price target still represents a 10% premium to itshistorical average P/E as we believe the targeted valuation shouldreflect the company’s growth outlook both in terms of sales and ROEfor the next 12 months.

Risks Key downside risks: 1) greater margin contraction in the cameramodule business due to slower pixel migration and rising industry competition; 2) an inventory correction in China smartphones; and, 3) lower-than-expected handset camera lens orders from Samsung.

Key upside risks: stronger-than-expected demand from China andglobal brand customers; and, higher-than-expected revenue contribution from 8MP+ products.

Ticker 02382.HK Last close HK$7.97 CICC target HK$7.92 52wk price range HK$11.78~4.13 Market cap (bn) HK$9 Daily value (mn) HK$129.26 Shares outstanding (mn) 1,097 Free float (%) 55 Daily volume (mn sh) 16.18 Business sector Electronic Components

(Rmb mn) 2011A 2012A 2013E 2014E

Revenue 2,498 3,984 5,976 6,753 (+/-) 37.4% 59.5% 50.0% 13.0% Net profit 215 346 430 521 (+/-) 49.3% 60.9% 24.3% 21.3% EPS 0.22 0.35 0.39 0.48 BPS 1.68 1.93 2.09 2.49 DPS 0.04 0.07 0.06 0.07 CPS 0.07 0.26 0.22 0.51 P/E 30.0 18.5 16.0 13.1 P/B 3.8 3.3 3.0 2.5 EV/EBITDA 19.2 12.7 10.4 8.6 Dividend yield 0.7% 1.1% 1.0% 1.2% ROAA 9.7% 12.9% 11.8% 11.4% ROAE 13.4% 19.2% 20.4% 20.8%

Source: Bloomberg, company data, CICC Research

Haofei CHEN Andrew LIN [email protected] SFC CE Ref: AJD676

[email protected]

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Page 2: Sunny Optical Technology - gw.com.cnrdfile.gw.com.cn/F8/38/F83807AA1ED2557710A09A9437643C9E.pdf · Sunny Optical Technology ... CCM capacity projection ... Sunny Optical looks likely

CICC Research: October 24, 2013

Please read carefully the important disclosures at the end of this report 2

Contents Competition triggers another investment cycle ............................................................................................ 3 

Pixel migration is a key driver for camera modules ................................................................................................. 3 Lens suppliers’ operating risks will rise sharply ....................................................................................................... 6 Accelerating growth of non-smartphone business .................................................................................................. 7 Margin under pressure; initiate coverage with a HOLD rating ................................................................................ 8 

Figures Figure 1: Number of smartphone models by camera module in 2014 ................................................................ 3 Figure 2: Global smartphone market breakdown by pixels and % change ......................................................... 3 Figure 3: Sunny Optical’s CCM shipment mix by pixel count ............................................................................. 4 Figure 4: Sunny Optic’s product mix by application ............................................................................................ 4 Figure 5: CCM capacity projection ..................................................................................................................... 5 Figure 6: Handset lens blended ASP ................................................................................................................. 6 Figure 7: Smartphone lens capacity projections ................................................................................................. 6 Figure 8: Lens content per CCM ........................................................................................................................ 7 Figure 9: Earnings forecasts .............................................................................................................................. 7 Figure 10: Growth & margin analysis ................................................................................................................. 8 Figure 11: P/E and P/B bands ............................................................................................................................ 9 Figure 12: Valuations of comparable companies ................................................................................................ 9 Figure 13: Financial performance review ......................................................................................................... 10 

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CICC Research: October 24, 2013

Please read carefully the important disclosures at the end of this report 3

Competition triggers another investment cycle

Despite smartphone ASP falling as EM demand drives shipment volume, we expect improved functionality and volume growth for cameras. Flagship smartphones have been adopting 13MP (megapixel) camera modules since 2013. Most low-end/mid-range smartphones now have 5MP or higher camera modules, resulting in little difference among smartphone models. Nokia announced that it would install a 13MP or higher camera for its new Windows phone (scheduled for launch in 2H13), but it remains to be seen whether the camera feature will factor into consumers’ decisions.

Figure 1: Number of smartphone models by camera module in 2014

Source: GSMArena ,CICC Research

Pixel migration is a key driver for camera modules

The number of standard camera pixels in high-end smartphones will rise from 8MP in 2012 to 13MP in 2013. Smartphone makers’ hardware competition (full high definition and phablet demand growth) and operating system upgrades require camera modules to upgrade with high pixels. The proportion of 8M pixel cameras in the smartphone market, which surged from 20.3% in 2011 to 30.2% in 2012, will likely fall back to 36.2% in 2013.

Figure 2: Global smartphone market breakdown by pixels and % change

Source: GSMArena, CICC Research

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CICC Research: October 24, 2013

Please read carefully the important disclosures at the end of this report 4

Despite increasing competition from Chinese handset camera-module suppliers in 1H13, Sunny Optical looks likely to post a 22% YoY increase in its CCM blended ASP due to the increasing demand of better camera features, even for the mass-market smartphone segment. We forecast the portion of 5MP+ CCM shipments to rise from 49% of overall shipments in 1H13, to 55% in 2013, and 63% in 2014.

Previously, Sunny Optical provided 2~5MP CCM products for the China smartphone market. However, due to the increasing demand of better camera features in China, it started to produce 8MP CCM from 2012. It has also been developing features such as auto-focus for 5~8MP rear cameras, as well as developing slimmer components for slimmer smartphones, which requires more advanced production technology.

We forecast Sunny Optical’s total revenue to rise by 50% YoY for 2013 and 13% YoY for 2014. Our main revenue growth assumption is based on the strong China smartphone shipment growth being sustained over the next couple of years, as well as smartphone feature upgrades which should support the company’s ASP and gross margin against the sharp price decline in the highly competitive China market.

Figure 3: Sunny Optical’s CCM shipment mix by pixel count

Source: GSMArena, CICC Research

Figure 4: Sunny Optical’s product mix by application

Source: GSMArena, CICC Research

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CICC Research: October 24, 2013

Please read carefully the important disclosures at the end of this report 5

Higher definition competition split from displays to cameras

In 2013, growth in the tablet market provided new opportunities for camera module component vendors. In 2014, it will be hard for standard smartphone camera modules to top the current level of 13MP. Incremental demand for high-end camera modules will stagnate, while that for low-end devices will rise. In addition, smartphone makers will become more unwilling to adopt higher pixel camera modules for price reasons as consumers become more sensitive to smartphones’ pricing rather than specifications.

Meanwhile, the market share competition in the tablet space will focus on specifications. Tablet makers such as Samsung Electronics and Apple continue to add new product enhancements such as full high-definition displays. The LTE boom is leading to higher demand for high-definition video content. These factors will help boost the demand for higher-pixel rear-end camera modules. Currently, most tablets come with 5MP rear-end camera modules, but 8MP camera modules will become more popular in 2014.

Growth slowing for high-end smartphones; feature enhancement and volume growth to continue for cameras

Smartphone products have so far been driving demand for electronic components. As growth of smartphone shipments is reliant on volumes in emerging markets, falling APS means growth in smartphone-related components demand is likely to slow. Our focus is VCM (voice coil motor) actuators for cameras. Here we expect unit prices to rise as OIS (optical image stabilization) will become the mainstream in high-end smartphone camera models after 2014; volumes will also rise for types without OIS as demand of lower-end smartphones booms in emerging markets.

In 2012, most popular high-end smartphone models had 8MP cameras, but 13MP cameras are becoming the standard for 2013. Increasing demand for 2014 models, however, will likely be value added in non-pixel areas such as OIS functionality rather than increasing pixel count.

Intensifying competition in camera module space a concern

Camera modules have a relatively short lead time for ramp up compared to other components; industry players such as Truly and O-Film have been expanding capacity. O-Film’s aggressive pricing (recently successfully penetrated Xiaomi’s HongMi supply chain) may be disruptive to industry pricing dynamics.

Figure 5: CCM capacity projection

Source: GSMArena, CICC Research

(mn units/month) 2012 2013E Major CustomersSunny Optical 10 22 Huawei, Lenovo, OPPO, Gionee, TinnoLite-On Tech 22 25 Nokia, HTC, Dell, Lenovo, RIM, Haier, Samsung, Amazon, Google, XiaomiTruly 6 10 OPPO, VIVOO-Film 8 HongMI, Lenovo, Longcheer

Page 6: Sunny Optical Technology - gw.com.cnrdfile.gw.com.cn/F8/38/F83807AA1ED2557710A09A9437643C9E.pdf · Sunny Optical Technology ... CCM capacity projection ... Sunny Optical looks likely

CICC Research: October 24, 2013

Please read carefully the important disclosures at the end of this report 6

Lens suppliers’ operating risks will rise sharply

The company started shipping handset lens sets (mainly 8MP) for Samsung Electronics’ smartphones in June 2013. We believe it is likely that Sunny Optical will account for 10~15% of Samsung Electronics’ smartphone rear camera lens sets in 2H13, which should amount to ~20m units. Sunny Optical also targets gradually increasing its in-house supply of handset lens sets for the CCM business. The company guides that ~30% of its camera module lenses will be produced in-house by 2H13; up from 23% in 1H13 after expanding capacity ~50~60% within 2013 due to strong demand for high-resolution CCMs.

Figure 6: Handset lens blended ASP

Source: CICC Research

In 2H13, lens prices are significantly lower vs. 1H13’s price of 4P and 5P element high-end lenses. In particular, the number for 1H14 will drop sharply by ~15~20% HoH on average; as a result, gross margins will decline 10ppt. Suppliers are competing for orders to avoid the idling of capacity as well as to secure capacity utilization. We think structural changes caused by uncertain end demand will markedly increase lens suppliers’ operating risks in 2H13 and 2014.

All lens suppliers are expanding capacity in 2H13. Oversupply will force them to cut prices to maintain capacity utilization at high levels. The sector is facing the risk of sales and earnings decline. Although high-end camera modules’ mainstream pixel counts will migrate to 8MP in 2014 and 13MP in 2015, demand for lenses will likely stay at 5P elements. In other words, lens content per handset will stay at least 5 for the next couple of years.

Figure 7: Smartphone lens capacity projections

Source: CICC Research

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Company Applications 1H13 Capacity (mn units/mth) 2H13 Capacity (mn units/mth)Largan Phone, Tablet, NB 70 85Genius Optical Phone, Tablet, NB 65 80Kantatsu Phone, Tablet 20 30Newmax Phone, Tablet, NB, Game Console 15 23Sunny Optical Phone, Tablet 15 20AOET Tablet, NB 8 15Asia Optical Phone, Tablet, NB, Game Console 8 10

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CICC Research: October 24, 2013

Please read carefully the important disclosures at the end of this report 7

Figure 8: Lens content per CCM

Source: CICC Research

Accelerating growth of non-smartphone business

Sunny Optical also develops optical products for various other uses, which should ensure its long-term profitability growth. The company indicated its vehicle lens business (2013e: 4% of sales, but 12% of profits) grew 67% YoY in 1H13, exceeding previous expectations due to new design wins from the Japanese auto supply chain. Many new vehicles use advanced driver assistance systems (ADAS) that usually include a rear-view camera, a forward-facing camera and side cameras for blind spots. Sunny Optical expects these lenses (4% of 1H13 revenue on the back of 67% YoY growth) to contribute more revenue that is either in line with, or faster than, the industry average (the Fuji chimera Research Institute forecasts a 32.5% CAGR over 2011~17).

In addition, demand is rising for 3D imaging products, including existing projects from Leap Motion’s 3D motion control and future new models for local TV and consumer IT clients. The company has been supplying camera modules for Samsung Electronics’ smart-TV gesture-control features since the end of last year. Another product is an external motion-control device launched by US-company Leap Motion in July of this year, which is capable of sensing a user’s gestures and enabling the connected PC to be controlled without touching it. Sunny Optical is Leap Motion’s sole supplier of such products and expects to manufacture more products to international PC makers over the next few years (HP launched a Notebook with an embedded Leap Motion’s solution in 4Q13).

Figure 9: Earnings forecasts

Source: Company Data, Wind, CICC Research

Aperture Pixel P elementF/2.4 VGA 2PF/2.4 HD/FHD/2MP 3PF/2.0 HD/FHD/2MP 3PF/2.0 HD/FHD/2MP/5MP 4PF/2.0 5MP/8MP/13MP 5PF/1.8 8MP/13MP 5P

Income Statement (Rmb mn) 1H2010 2H2010 1H2011 2H2011 1H2012 2H2012 1H2013 2H2013ENet revenue 834 984 1,103 1,395 1,770 2,214 2,786 3,190Cost of revenues 656 770 867 1,109 1,430 1,813 2,345 2,657Gross profit 178 214 236 287 340 401 440 534Other operating revenue 3 4 4 10 7 2 5 74Operating Expense 115 137 142 171 175 206 229 341Operating Profit 65 83 99 125 172 197 217 267Interest Expense 2 2 1 2 1 2 2 3Interest Income 12 15 25 19 14 12 8 26Equity Earnings (2) (3) (2) (2) (3) (1) 0 0Other non-operating gain/(loss) (2) 1 (9) (15) 2 (3) 4 (4)EBT excluding unusual items 70 95 111 126 184 202 227 287Unusual items (4) 4 (1) 3 3 8 9 (9)Pretax Income 66 99 110 130 188 209 235 279Income Tax Expense 16 11 23 15 32 26 41 46Minority Interest (5) (1) (4) (10) (1) (6) (2) (2)Net Income 55 89 92 123 157 189 197 233

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CICC Research: October 24, 2013

Please read carefully the important disclosures at the end of this report 8

Margin under pressure; initiate coverage with a HOLD rating

On top of the 59.5% YoY growth it posted in 2012, we forecast Sunny Optical’s revenue will rise 50% in 2013 and 13% in 2014. We believe the main growth driver over the next two years will remain smartphone applications, in terms of both shipment growth and the expansion of China’s smartphone market.

Sunny Optical has become more aggressive in its move to higher resolution products and vertical integration in lenses to enhance its margins and ASP. In 1H13, 18% of its camera modules shipments were >8MP (from 5% in 2012), which we estimate will be >20% in 2H13. However, the current in-sourced lens for Sunny Optical’s camera modules is mainly 5MP. Due to the capex expansion from 2013, this mix may weigh on margins before advanced technology investment pays off. We therefore forecast that operating margin will decline to 8.1% in 2013 (from 9.26% in 2012) before rebounding slightly to 8.7% in 2014 and 2015.

Figure 10: Growth & margin analysis

Source: Company Data, Wind, CICC Research

Initiate coverage with HOLD rating and target price of HK$7.92

Sunny Optical is one of China’s best performing tech stocks. While the stock remains a key beneficiary of the explosive mid-range/low-end smartphone growth for coming quarters, margin pressure and the street’s downside earnings revision are likely to pressure the stock’s performance. Trading at the high-end of its historical average and industry P/E, we think all the positives are already priced in. As a result, we initiate coverage with a HOLD rating and a TP of HK$7.92.

We based our 12-month target price of HK$7.92 on our target P/E multiple of 13.2x applied to our 2014 EPS estimate of HK$0.60. Our P/E multiple of 13.2x reflects strong China smartphone demand on camera upgrades and also takes into account the disruption from intensifying competition and ASP pressure from clients. Sunny Optical’s P/E has averaged 12x for the past 12 months. Our price target still represents a 10% premium to its two-year historical average P/E multiple, we believe the targeted valuation should reflect the company’s growth outlook both in terms of sales and ROE for the next 12 months.

To some extent, recent share price volatility has reflected 1H13 GPM disappointment; although a key debate remains over whether GPM can recover in 2H13, as OEMs shift their focus to the mid-range segment – which may weigh on component pricing – and competition intensifies in China’s camera module space, which may pressure 8MP camera module margins. Sunny Optical is trading at a PER of 13.3x 2014e and 12.5x 2015e; we see limited upside.

2008A 2009A 2010A 2011A 2012A 2013E 2014E 2015EGrowth AnalysisNet Revenue -8.3% 3.4% 38.8% 37.4% 59.5% 50.0% 13.0% 7.0%Gross Profit -33.4% 9.2% 43.1% 33.4% 41.7% 31.5% 17.9% 10.1%Operating Profit -69.0% 34.4% 80.5% 51.4% 64.7% 31.2% 21.4% 7.0%Net Income -65.3% 17.9% 56.5% 49.3% 60.9% 24.3% 21.3% 7.0%Margin AnalysisGross Margin 19.8% 20.9% 21.6% 20.9% 18.6% 16.3% 17.0% 17.5%Operating Expense 80.2% 79.1% 78.4% 79.1% 81.4% 83.7% 83.0% 82.5%Operating Margin 4.8% 6.3% 8.1% 9.0% 9.3% 8.1% 8.7% 8.7%EBIT Margin 5.4% 7.2% 9.1% 9.5% 9.7% 8.6% 9.2% 9.2%Effective Tax Rate 13.5% 13.0% 16.4% 15.8% 14.6% 17.0% 17.0% 17.0%Net Margin 6.2% 7.0% 7.9% 8.6% 8.7% 7.2% 7.7% 7.7%

Page 9: Sunny Optical Technology - gw.com.cnrdfile.gw.com.cn/F8/38/F83807AA1ED2557710A09A9437643C9E.pdf · Sunny Optical Technology ... CCM capacity projection ... Sunny Optical looks likely

CICC Research: October 24, 2013

Please read carefully the important disclosures at the end of this report 9

Figure 11: P/E and P/B bands

Source: Company Data, Wind, CICC Research

Figure 12: Valuations of comparable companies

Source: Company Data, Wind, Bloomberg, CICC Research

Note: * Data for companies not covered by CICC is from Bloomberg consensus

Mkt Cap

2013E 2014E (mn USD) 2012A 2013E 2014E 2012A 2013E 2014E 2013E 2014E 2010A 2011A 2012ASunny Optical Technology Group 7.77 HOLD 15.58 12.85 1,032 18.60% 16.30% 17.00% 0.36 0.39 0.48 2.07 1.72 9.67 13.40 19.15Zhejiang Crystal-Optech Co Ltd* 18.50 NR 37.74 25.16 1,132 46.14% 43.10% 42.86% 0.39 0.53 0.79 5.47 5.20 21.07 17.09 14.72Largan Precision Co Ltd* 982 NR 15.02 13.20 4,511 29.71% 46.91% - 41.58 66.27 75.12 4.68 3.82 26.88 28.72 26.02Genius Electronic Optical Co Ltd* 117 NR 469.84 32.14 464 11.39% - - 9.04 0.32 4.61 - - 16.18 19.42 11.86Partron Co Ltd* 15,950 NR 7.70 6.64 843 16.56% 16.55% 15.70% 1,261 2,188 2,539 2.64 1.95 22.93 24.00 36.94LG Innotek Co Ltd* 85,500 NR 31.18 11.72 1,591 8.68% - - -2,037 - - 1.25 1.14 17.34 -11.87 -3.24Digital Optics Co Ltd* 17,700 NR 5.58 4.43 95 19.14% 18.70% - 41,274 41,639 42,004 1.82 1.32 13.43 33.82 28.00Sekonix Co Ltd* 25,750 NR 7.42 6.47 187 22.67% 24.60% 24.85% 2,313 3,439 3,941 1.75 1.39 17.03 2.37 20.70053450.KQ

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Page 10: Sunny Optical Technology - gw.com.cnrdfile.gw.com.cn/F8/38/F83807AA1ED2557710A09A9437643C9E.pdf · Sunny Optical Technology ... CCM capacity projection ... Sunny Optical looks likely

CICC Research: October 24, 2013

Please read carefully the important disclosures at the end of this report 10

Figure 13: Financial performance review

Source: Company Data, Bloomberg, CICC Research

Income Statement (Rmb mn) 2007A 2008A 2009A 2010A 2011A 2012A 2013E 2014E 2015ENet revenue 1,382 1,267 1,310 1,818 2,498 3,984 5,976 6,753 7,226Cost of revenues 1,005 1,016 1,036 1,426 1,976 3,243 5,002 5,605 5,962Gross profit 377 251 274 392 523 741 974 1,148 1,265Other operating revenue 3 5 4 7 14 9 79 83 52Operating Expense 183 195 197 252 313 381 570 643 688Operating Profit 197 61 82 148 224 369 484 588 629Interest Expense 4 0 2 4 3 3 5 5 6Interest Income 35 8 20 27 44 26 34 41 44Equity Earnings 0 0 0 (5) (4) (4) 0 0 0Other non-operating gain/(loss) 0 0 (5) (1) (24) (1) (0) (0) (0)EBT excluding unusual items 227 69 94 165 237 386 514 624 667Unusual items 9 20 5 0 2 11 0 0 0Pretax Income 236 89 100 165 240 397 514 624 667Income Tax Expense 10 12 13 27 38 58 87 106 113Minority interests 0 (2) (5) (6) (14) (7) (4) (4) (4)Net Income 225 78 92 144 215 346 430 521 558Basic EPS (Rmb) 0.25 0.08 0.09 0.15 0.22 0.36 0.39 0.48 0.51Dividend (HKD) 0.00 0.02 0.02 0.02 0.05 0.09 0.09 0.11 0.12Balance Sheet (Rmb mn) 2007A 2008A 2009A 2010A 2011A 2012A 2013E 2014E 2015ECash and cash equivalents 544 388 740 188 252 243 366 363 401Trading account assets 0 291 0 0 84 281 281 281 281Other short-term investments 66 4 0 585 295 90 90 90 90Total receivables 381 260 376 457 630 905 1,358 1,534 1,641Inventory 347 224 342 416 570 839 1,259 1,422 1,522Other current assets 34 36 34 41 60 66 99 112 120Total current assets 1,128 1,069 1,284 1,527 1,822 2,267 3,249 3,561 3,789Net fixed assets 401 497 486 465 489 646 931 1,253 1,598Equity investments 0 0 0 15 14 1 1 1 1Held-to-maturity securities 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0Available-for-sale securities 8 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0Other long-term investments 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0Goodwill and intangible assets 12 21 27 23 0 0 0 0 0 In:Goodwill 12 12 12 4 0 0 0 0 0Land use rights 20 20 19 19 18 23 23 23 23Other non-current assets 0 5 5 8 32 65 65 65 65Total non-current assets 441 543 538 530 553 735 1,020 1,342 1,687Total assets 1,569 1,612 1,822 2,058 2,375 3,002 4,269 4,903 5,476Accounts and notes payable, net 185 120 212 301 471 774 1,194 1,338 1,423Accrued taxes 10 7 11 9 17 16 24 27 29Trading account liabilities 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0Short-term borrowings and current portion of long- termdebt/capital leases

0 18 29 88 62 103 155 175 187

Other current liabilities 79 74 82 99 120 159 239 270 288Total Current Liabilities 274 219 334 496 671 1,052 1,611 1,809 1,927Long-term debt and capital leases 0 17 27 25 17 0 350 350 350Other non-current liabilities 0 9 11 8 7 18 18 18 18Total non-current liabilities 0 26 38 34 24 18 368 368 368Total liabilities 274 246 372 530 694 1,070 1,979 2,177 2,295Preferred equity 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0Common stock 98 98 98 98 98 98 98 98 98Reserves 1,191 1,245 1,317 1,396 1,561 1,821 2,184 2,623 3,082 Additional paid-in capital 686 686 686 686 686 686 686 686 686 Retained earnings 250 308 363 471 621 890 1,252 1,691 2,150 Other reserves 255 252 269 239 255 246 246 246 246Treasury stock 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0Other comprehensive income/(loss) 0 0 1 3 3 3 3 3 3Total common equity 1,289 1,343 1,416 1,496 1,661 1,922 2,285 2,724 3,183Total parent shareholders’ equity 1,289 1,343 1,416 1,496 1,661 1,922 2,285 2,724 3,183Minority interests 6 24 33 32 20 10 6 2 (1)Total shareholders’ equity 1,295 1,366 1,449 1,528 1,681 1,932 2,291 2,727 3,182Total liabilities and shareholders’equity 1,569 1,612 1,822 2,058 2,375 3,002 4,270 4,904 5,477Cash Flow (Rmb mn) 2007A 2008A 2009A 2010A 2011A 2012A 2013E 2014E 2015ENet income 225 78 92 144 215 346 430 521 558Depreciation and amortization 54 73 86 91 92 109 164 185 198Change in working capital (95) 52 (36) (40) (228) (200) (351) (138) (84)Other non-cash items (25) (1) (12) (9) (7) 2 (4) (4) (4)Net cash generated from operations 160 203 131 185 72 257 239 565 668Capital expenditure 170 150 78 82 203 299 449 507 542Proceeds from disposals of property, plant and equipment 2 2 10 2 13 43 0 0 0Increase in investment 71 287 0 605 562 389 0 0 0Decrease in investment 0 66 295 0 765 397 0 0 0Net cash generated from other investing activities 30 15 1 (36) 75 68 0 0 0Net cash generated from investing (209) (355) 228 (721) 87 (180) (449) (507) (542)Increase in debt 215 15 47 191 51 264 402 20 12Decrease in debt 248 0 30 134 82 241 0 0 0Increase in capital 705 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0Decrease in capital 0 0 0 50 20 35 0 0 0Total dividends paid 236 21 20 20 44 71 68 82 99Net cash flows generated from other financing activities (4) 1 (3) (3) (3) (3) 0 0 0Net cash provided by financing 432 (4) (6) (16) (97) (86) 333 (62) (87)Impact of foreign exchange rate changes 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0Other cash flow adjustments 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0Net increase/(decrease) in cash and cash equivalents 383 (156) 353 (552) 63 (8) 123 (4) 39

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CICC Research: October 24, 2013

Please read carefully the important disclosures at the end of this report 11

Important legal disclosures General Disclosures

This report has been produced by China International Capital Corporation Hong Kong Securities Limited (CICCHKS). This report is based on information available to the public that we consider reliable, but CICCHKS and its associated company(ies)(collectively, hereinafter “CICC”) do not represent that it is accurate or complete. The information and opinions contained herein are for investors’ reference only and do not take into account the particular investment objectives, financial situation, or needs of any client, and are not an offer to buy or sell or a solicitation of an offer to buy or sell the securities mentioned. Under no circumstances shall the information contained herein or the opinions expressed herein constitute a personal recommendation to anyone. Investors should make their own independent evaluation of the information contained in this research report, consider their own individual investment objectives, financial situation and particular needs and consult their own professional and financial advisers as to the legal, business, financial, tax and other aspects before participating in any transaction in respect of the securities of company(ies) covered in this report. Neither CICC nor its related persons shall be liable in any manner whatsoever for any consequences of any reliance thereon or usage thereof.

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V131013

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