SUNIL SOMALWAR (W I T H B A R B A R A S A R A M A K )

DEPARTMENT OF PHYSICSRUTGERS UNIVERSITY

RUTGERS ENERGY INSTITUTE FOURTH ANNUAL SYMPOSIUM

MAY 6, 2009

Future of Electricity in the Transportation Sector

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Outline

Emission in the Electric Sector Normalization to Emission (Uniform

Language) Roads Trains, Buses and Airplanes Policy Landscape / Conclusion

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Greenhouse Emission Challenge in the Electric Sector

Electricity is a premier form of energy because Carnot

inefficiency (at the power plant) is already built in.

(Not all BTU’s are created equal) Coal emits twice as much CO2 per kwhr as natural

gas

Sources of Electricity

Nuclear19%

Coal50%

Petroleum3%

Natural Gas19%

Other3%Hydroelectric

6%

Pollution in ElectricityPetroleum and Natural Gas

1/6

Coal 5/6 5/09 Somalwar

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Greenhouse Emissions from Electricity Today: Five out of every six CO2

molecules from electric sector come from Coal

Tomorrow?

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M. I. Hoffert et. al., Nature, 1998, 395, 881

Emissions: Where to? IPCC IS92a Scenario

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Assume a sustained decrease in energy intensity at 1% per year(Energy cost of producing a $ of GDP)

M. I. Hoffert et. al., Nature, 1998, 395, 881

Emissions: Where to? IPCC IS92a Scenario (contd)Factor in aggressive clean technology

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Emission/BTUratio for coalunchanged

M. I. Hoffert et. al., Nature, 1998, 395, 881

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Emissions: Where to?

Today: Five out of every six CO2 molecules from electric sector come from Coal

Tomorrow: Given the global population and economic growth, situation does not change despite significant technological progress. This is the challenge

(Nate Lewis, Caltech: Robust prediction) For this talk, note just the timescale: 50 years

(= lifetime of a coal plant). 5/09 Somalwar

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Normalization to Emissions(A bit of bookkeeping)

Proliferation of energy units (btu, kwh,Joule, kcal…) leads to opacity and slanted conclusions.

Define one “gallon” = 20 lbs of CO2

(Emission equivalent: An activity resulting in 20 lbs of

CO2 emission has environmental cost of one “gallon” of gasoline.)

a) Electricity and transportation on a uniform footing

b) Transparent language.

c) Focus on emissions, not on irrelevant quantities.

(e.g. normalization to fuel price: one financial “gallon” equals ~$2.50)

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Road : Plug-in Car Tesla sports car available. 2010-11: GM Volt, Toyota plug-in, Renault China’s national goal: Commoditization of

plug-in cars

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BYD (Warren Buffet Investment)

$22,000 Oct 2008

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Perception of the Plug-in Car

“Green” technology Zero emissions High volume media

coverage Real Government Subsidies

1996 General Motors EV15/09 Somalwar

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Corn-ethanol Déjà vu

Vagueness - No numbers in media articles

Prius’s green coattails (hybrid technology with onboard electricity)

Public Subsidies (53c/gal , $7000 per car)

Great promise of future (cellulosic/clean electricity )

Realization of harm5/09 Somalwar

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Emissions from a Plug-in CarHow to calculate efficiency of the plug-in car? No emissions from tailpipe? Can go 100 miles on a gallon of gasoline? 40 mile range on battery? Clarity needed for the actual emissions

impact of the plug-in electric car.

(Einstein would say: Do a thought experiment)

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Plug-in Car Emissions:What Would Oprah Do?

2004: Oprah gave away brand new GM cars to 276 members of her studio audience.

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Plug-in Car Emissions: Meet Bob Lutz GM Vice-Chairman in-charge of Chevy Volt plug-in car, Bob Lutz, is waiting at the door.

(Remember the name for later)

He has one free Chevy Volt for each of you

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Plug-in Car Emissions:What Would Einstein Say? Plug your brand new Chevy Volt into the wall

outlet and charge it 8 kWh for a 20 mile ride.

(http://gm-volt.com/full-specifications/) NJ imports electricity. A neighboring coal state will

burn extra coal to send us that 8 kWh, emitting 8kwhr x 2.5 lbs/kWh = 20 lbs CO2.

(Power plant emission figure from DOE-EIA with ~10% transmission loss.)

(Incremental emission expertise: CEEEP, Frank Felder @ Bloustein School)

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Plug-in Car Emissions: The Numbers

20 mile ride costs 20 lbs CO2 (at power plant). But 20 lbs CO2 = One gallon of gasoline

Chevy Volt is a 20 miles per gallon car.(Normalized by Greenhouse Emissions)

Inefficiencies NOT included: Battery charger and charging inefficiencies (laptop best: ~75%) Rapid battery charging inefficiency Li-ion battery aging inefficiency (increased internal resistance) passenger comfort (ohmic heating in winter, a/c in summer) Lifecycle (manufacture) footprint of the extra batteries….

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Argument 1 Against the Plug-in Car: Low Efficiency (3 more to go)Chevy Volt

2.5 miles/kWh (40 miles on 16kWh1) = ~20 miles/”gallon”

A 20 mpg SUV at best. Real-life inefficiencies make it a Hummer.

Tesla RoadsterAccording to Tesla Motors: 4 miles/kWh (220 miles on 53kWh2)

NY Times: 3miles/kWh (100 miles on 32 kWh3) = ~25 miles/ gallon

Plug-in PriusSame as GM Volt (Numbers from Toyota engineers quoted in NYT)

BUT Gasoline Prius Hybrid: 47 miles/gallon (Generates its own electricity from gasoline)

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Good Hybrid vs. Bad Plug-InHow does the plug-in compare to hybrid in terms of emissions?

Gasoline Hybrid Plug-in Electric

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Reason 2: Plug-in Vehicles Run Counter to the Goal of Reducing Coal Use

0

50000

100000

150000

200000

(Exa)J

OilRsv

OilRes

GasRsv

GasRes

CoalRsv

CoalRes

Unconventional

Conventional

Rsv = Reserves

Res = Resources

There is no shortage of coal in the world

From Lewis

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Coal is the cheapest

1-4¢ 2.3-5¢

6-8¢5-7¢ 6-7¢

25-50¢

0

5

10

15

20

25

Co

st,

¢/k

W-h

r

Coal Gas Oil Wind Nuclear Solar

a) Cost range is incremental vs. lifetime average.b) Wind assumes best locations and presence of a grid

Lewis ~20045/09 Somalwar

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Our Addiction to Coal Highest Greenhouse priority is to reduce coal

consumption: The dirtiest fuel responsible for 5/6 of emissions in electricity sector.

It will take decades to reduce reliance on coal since electric grid is operating at capacity and generation is barely keeping up with demand.

Coal plants are being built fast and furious globally.

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Political Power of Coal Lobby Coal is domestic, distributed nationally, found in political swing-states, is inexpensive and its emissions take place in remote locations instead of pouring out of

countless tailpipes around us.

Plug-in cars Bring coal into transportation sector. =Coal-to-liquid = Synfuel = FT fuel x2 emissions per mile

Give coal more lobbying resources and political power to thwart meaningful emissions cap. Under any carbon pricing scheme, coal draws twice the penalty of natural gas or petroleum.

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Argument 2: Plug-in Vehicles Run Counter to the Goal of Reducing Coal Use

Adding transportation to the already overstretched electric grid will lead to: More fossil fuel plants Stronger coal lobby Weakened prospects of a stringent carbon pricing

policy (Cap & Trade with a meaningful cap or greenhouse pollution fees.)

Can’t ask for less coal in face of electric brownouts

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Argument 2: Plug-in Vehicles Run Counter to the Goal of Reducing Coal Use

Timescales: Coal plant ~50 years Sequestration/renewables ~25-50 years Revamping an automotive line ~10 years.

PLUG-IN CAR(T) BEFORE THE HORSE.

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Argument 3: Disincentive to Fuel Conservation in the Transportation Sector (Economics 101)

We consume too much petroleum. Plug-in car: increases fuel supply by adding electricity

Both petroleum AND electricity can run your car Increased fuel supply Less price pressure on petroleum Lower gasoline price higher consumption (Even if the electricity came from wind!)

With gasoline at $2/gallon and the corn-ethanol boondoggle ongoing, do we need another fuel supply in the transportation sector (coal, natural gas or wind)?

Giving vodka to a whisky addict without taking away whisky.

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A Hypothetical Scenario

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Argument 4: The Plug-in CAFE Loophole

CAFE (Corporate Average Fuel Economy) Federal regulatory framework to improve fuel economy.

Penalty if the manufacturer’s annual fleet average falls below the standard.

Favorite playing ground for loophole industry (SUV’s, flex-fuel…)

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?

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Argument 4: The Plug-in CAFE Loophole Plug-in vehicles are slated to get high

efficiency (50-100 mpg) designation despite 20 mpg emission.

Thus, each electric vehicle will let 2-4 gas guzzlers meet the average fuel economy (CAFE) standard if the standard is at 35 mpgWon’t encourage production of more efficient

cars but instead will sell more gas-guzzlers

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Plug-in car CAFE loophole in action:CAFE Standard 35 mpg average One plug-in vehicle with 100 mpg designation sold by the manufacturer, four 20mpg

SUV’s can pass the CAFE fleet average five 20 mpg vehicles on road.

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Four Arguments Against Plug-in Vehicles 1. Further promotion of coal

Coal, the dirtiest energy source, is the backbone of a tight electric grid. New load makes electric grid decarbonization more difficult. “No New Load !”

2. Disincentive to fuel conservation in the transportation sector

Increases fuel supply base in transportation, frees up gasoline for other inefficient vehicles. Same as liquid coal.

3. Inefficient A factor of two more emissions/mile than a

comparable gasoline hybrid. (Again, same as liquid coal.)

4. Regulatory loophole Trojan horse lets its inefficient brethren thru CAFE gate.5/09 Somalwar

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FAQ: Why Use Coal Emission Numbers Instead of National Average?

Because it is the dirtiest fuel in the electric sector and is responsible for 5/6 of the emissions.

New loads ultimately rely on coal since the clean sources are running flat out.

Getting rid of coal is the highest priority Electric grid is very tight New loads

prolong coal’s life. Analogy: 7% Home loan interest

versus 25% credit card interest.

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FAQ: What if I have solar panels on my roof and a windmill in the backyard?

Answer: But the clean electric grid is nowhere in sight. The plug-in is still a new load on the grid.

1) Presuming that global warming is the reason for these investments, feed all this clean electricity back into the electric grid to beat back coal.

2) Given the public subsidies (wise or not) that went into the solar panels and windmills, all the more reason not to squander the clean electricity on an inefficient, inconvenient and expensive toy.

Personal purity does not make good public policy. Plug-ins are fuelled by expectations of a utopia around the corner.

(And if you happen to be off the electric grid, you are not going very far in a plug-in

car, and you have no business spoiling that wilderness anyways!)

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Plug-in car: It’s the economy, stupid!

Motivation behind the plug-in car is dirt-cheap electricity, not greenhouse efficiency: In a coal state, GM Volt will give 60 miles per financial “gallon”, assuming $2.50/gal gasoline and 10c/kWh electricity.

With gasoline at $4.00 per gallon, it becomes a 100 miles per financial “gallon” car. However, its environmental efficiency remains the same as that of a 20miles/gal SUV.

Moral: Coal does not pay for its pollution (externality). Hence the economic and environmental price disparity.

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Plug-in Car Comes With August Company

Motivation behind the plug-in car is dirt-cheap electricity, not greenhouse efficiency.

GM’s Bob Lutz called global warming a "total crock of xxxx." About the battery-driven Volt, Lutz said, "I'm motivated more by the desire to replace imported oil than by the CO2 [argument]…[hybrids like the Prius] make no economic sense”… http://www.autobloggreen.com/2008/02/13/gms-bob-lutz-global-warming-is-a-total-crock-of-sh-t/ . Also, reuters.com

Other backers: Former CIA director Woolsey and other “national security” folks (Conservatives forgetting Economics 101 and hoping that increased fuel supply will eliminate petroleum imports.)

My fellow environmentalists: Many like plug-in cars (though thankfully, not the environmentally identical coal-to-liquid “synfuels”).

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FAQ: Effect of Carbon Pricing

Carbon pricing (via cap & trade or pollution fees) is the best tool to reduce greenhouse emissions. But why dig the hole deeper when we don’t even have this tool yet?

A political miracle: Coal states let us double the price of their electricity from 10c/kWh to 20c/kWh.

Impact on a plug-in car (2.5mile/kWh): 4c/mile 8c/mile. This 4c/mile increase is minimal compared to 30c/mile depreciation plus 15c/mile insurance.

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FAQ: When will it be time for plug-in cars?

Answer: Not until a) The electric grid has been decarbonized (50 years?) and b) Policy mechanisms are in place to ensure that (clean)

electricity will displace petroleum from transportation, not encourage its consumption.

Example: A massive $400/tonCO2 carbon price (dream on!) increases

today’s coal electricity price by 50c/kWh, accomplishing (a), but gasoline price increases to only $6/gallon because it is a cleaner fuel. (Europe: ~50% less consumption compared to US.)

Then it might be time for a plug-in car, but the market will bring it in on its own provided carbon price keeps going up.

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Trains, Buses and PlanesWhat is the most efficient intercity passenger transport?

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Freight Trains vs. Passenger Trains Freight Trains are more efficient than trucks at

goods transportation because of low steel-on-steel resistance.

However, efficiency of freight trains does not transfer to passenger trains

Passenger trains Need instantaneous acceleration Have higher peak and variable speeds Carry high rolling dead-weight per passenger (Acela: 2 tons/seat)

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Efficiency Data (with coal electricity)

Mode of Transportation

Btu per Passenger-Mile (etc)

Passenger-Miles per Gallon (20 lbs CO2)

Amtrak 29356

(insufficient information)

10-40(Electric vs. Diesel)

Jet (600 mile)(revenue miles/gal) 45

German ICE(Hamburg-Frankfurt 1993)

466 58

Gasoline Prius(2 passengers)

1390 90

Intercity Bus 9465 130-200

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A Case for Intercity Express Buses

Short-Medium haul – Express coach buses running from Boston to DC are substantially more efficient than Amtrak and 3-4 times more efficient than German ICE’s. (and I’m a trainiac!)

Superfast train network is not a good option at this stage.

Wide-body long-haul jets to hubs with intercity express bus network most efficient (but planes are too convenient – carbon pricing a must!)

Infrastructure exists!

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Intercity Express Buses (3-4 times

cheaper than Amtrak)

4.2 mpg (200pmpg) (China)

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FAQ: What about mass transit that runs on electricity?

Urban and suburban mass transit is a game-changer because it positively impacts urban planning and land use.

Mass transit, with its rapid start/stop needs, is precisely what electricity (an energy source with CO2 premium at the power plant) is meant for, not for shiny new single occupant toys on the road.

(Having said that, the Port Authority buses from NJ into NYC are likely far more efficient than NJ Transit trains.)

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Policy Landscape and Conclusions Electricity should have a minimal future in transportation. Until

a fully decarbonized grid is in sight, electricity should be reserved for premier uses such as mass transit.

Supply-side policies such as corn ethanol, plug-in car and Pickens plan can not address overconsumption.

Policy confusion due to pet proposals. Avoid specific proposals and reserve political capital for a maximal carbon price signal such as Cap & Trade or pollution fees. It will do the job together with a healthy R&D funding from normal revenues.

Only a large carbon price signal will alter consumption patterns Greenhouse revenues should be fully refunded. (Some compromises such as initial partially free permits and/or state-by-state carbon refunds may be needed.)

(Gasoline hybrids such as Prius are good!)http://www.physics.rutgers.edu/energy/

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