SunCentric CSI Report May 2011

8/6/2019 SunCentric CSI Report May 2011

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The CPUCs California Solar InitiativeA Program Off Track

An Update through March 2011

Glenn Harris, CEOSunCentric Incorporatedwww.suncentricinc.com

Published May 19, 2011


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In September 2007 we published our first report on the California Solar Initiative, A Triumph or a Train Wreck. In it we pieced

together the available data, talked with many of our colleagues in the solar business and took a hard look at how the program mightperform in the years ahead. Our outlook was not too positive.

Forward to today and again wed say our outlook is not too positive. Through March 2011, the 4 1/4 year mark, the CPUCs 10

year general market program has completed only 430 MW of the required 1,750 MW, about 25%. We see no meaningful signs of

acceleration that would allow us to project that the program can meet its requirement. Our forecast is that about 1,100 MW will becompleted by year end 2016.

Interestingly, in October 2010 CCSE announced that, based on confirmed projects, they were nearing the dollar incentive budget

for their Non-Residential programs. In late December 2010, PG&E followed. As a way to prevent overspending their budgets forthose two parts of the program, they decided to continue to accept project applications, but not automatically give a reservation.

This effectively created a pre-program step. The new step in the Non-Residential program is called Wait List and there are nowover 50 MW in this bucket. To move off the Wait List and into the program, a project now in the program must be cancelled.

This very strict approach does not seem to take into account the fact that more Non-Residential project MW are cancelled thancompleted. The Wait List process will certainly further lengthen project times, increase project uncertainty and put our hard won

solar industry infrastructure at risk. In our discussions with solar contractors we hear some reports that Non-Residential customersare proceeding with projects ignoring the CSI incentive.

The Non-Residential budget issue caused us to look at how the incentive budget was going for the whole program. After study, wesee that through March 2011, $147 million LESS incentive was actually spent, or reserved for performance based incentivepayments, than planned. This situation became likely when the decision was made early in the program to allow cancelled MWback into the program, but at the current incentive level, which is frequently lower than when the MW were first reserved. Ourbudget projections are included in the slide deck, and youll see we think the program will stay way under the planned budget forboth incentives and MW for the duration of the program.

2

SunCentric Comments


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3

SunCentric Comments (continued)

Adding a bit of additional drama, the program administrators have also reported that some Non-Residential systems receiving a

performance based incentive payment are producing more MWh than projected, causing the expectation that there will besignificant program overspending. This situation was not caused by some solar miracle, but because the early incentive calculatordid not correctly predict the MWh for some systems (i.e. tracked) or because weve had better weather than expected.

While not included in this report, we have studied the possibility that the fleet of Non-Residential performance based systems could

in whole overspend the Non-Residential budget. The CSI data set does not include actual MWh produced or actual performancebased payments made. The data set does show system size, product used, location and incentives allocated to the individual project.

There is sufficient data to make a good estimate, including variables like trackers and weather, of the fleets MWh production andthe likely total incentive payments needed over the 5 year payment period. Based on study, we are not overly concerned that the

Non-Residential performance based fleet will overspend their allocated incentive budget.

In part based on historical reservation, project completion and dropout rates, we continue to believe that the program does not haveenough demand to meet its year end 2016 objective. Our estimate is that about 3,000 MW total of reservation requests will beneeded to reach 1,750 MW of completions. Through March 2011 the program has received about 1,228 MW of reservation

requests. With declining incentives and some evidence of declining demand, the program has an uphill battle to more than doublereservation requests and reach 3,000 MW sometime in 2016.

Our viewpoints on the CSI come from experience gained over more than 10 years in the solar industry and our observations of thefinicky nature of solar subsidy programs. During this time we, and the industry, have greatly benefited from Californias publicly

available solar program data. Starting with the CEC and SGIP programs, and now the CSI, the data is a unique and very valuablesolar industry resourcecareful interpretation of the data provides many insights.

The charts and tables made for this presentation come from data collected and maintained by the CSI program administrators. You

can find the raw data files at www.californiasolarstatistics.ca.gov. The file now has over 63,000 projects and the administratorspost an updated dataset each week. This real time information gives us the ability to identify and track the programs andprogram participants performance in many ways, and to identify or confirm some broader U.S. PV industry trends.


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4

SunCentric Comments (concluded)

We particularly like showing program performance data in cumulative views. This technique gives the reader the opportunity to

look at rates of important measures over time. Because the data is posted weekly, we can see virtually real time how things areprogressing. As you review the pictures you can see surges and sags in activity. If you have the benefit of some CSI program andPV industry history you can assign causes to the swings, such as incentive changes, global PV module demand and supply

conditions, policy decisions and solar market or economic conditions.

Another advantage of using cumulative data is in forecasting. The program is bounded by MW, incentive dollars and time. Usingcumulative views makes for easier, and in our experience quite accurate, forward looking forecasts.

You can find some of our older CSI reports on the SunCentric site. Each year weve looked at program progress, project time,

price/demand, PV and inverter manufacturer and contractor results, and done a bit of forecasting. This year weve added our takeon the incentive budget, the new Wait List and a section on Residential and Non-Residential third party ownership, an interesting

industry topic, particularly in the residential space.

On some slides we make a comment or two for clarity or to emphasis a point. We think (hope) that as you study the pictures you

will get the key messages. As always we welcome your feedback and will respond to your questions.

As we mentioned last year, the CSI creates the baseline for credible forecasts in the U.S. and the results are a leading indicator ofthe outlook for the U.S. solar market. While there is much speculative PV activity on the horizon, the CSI is installing MW now

and demonstrates many of the barriers we face in the U.S. market. We also think that lessons learned from the CSI will help in new

program design in California and the U.S. and will give rise to better and simpler solar programs .

California has recently increased its Renewable Portfolio Standard to 33% by 2020. This objective will require massive amounts ofnew renewables to be grid connected in the near term. With all the hard work that has gone into the CSI, we think changes should

be made to get the program to the finish line. Because we believe the program will come in under the incentive budget, and dollarsare therefore not a constraint, we would simply say let the program continue past the 2016 sunset date, and until 1,750 MW are

complete.


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5

Table of contents

The CPUCs CSI Objective..........Slide 6

The CPUCs CSI Results and Observations................Slide 7

Notes and Definitions...Slide 8 to 9

Results for the entire CPUC CSI program...............Slide 10 to 22

Results for the Residential program......... Slide 23 to 28Results for the Non-Residential program........Slide 29 to 34

Status of Non-Residential Wait List projectsSlide 35 to 37

Time to complete projects......Slide 38 to 41Results by Utility... Slide 42 to 44

Change in prices and demand.............. Slide 45 to 50

Contractor results.............Slide 51 to 54

PV manufacturer results......... Slide 55 to 58Inverter manufacturer results............ Slide 59 to 62

Third party ownership results........... Slide 63 to 69

Incentive $ budget and MW forecasts..Slide 70 to 81


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Officially started in January 2007, the 10 year general market program is requiredto install 1,750MW by year end 2016.

6

The CPUCs CSI objective


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At the end of 2010, the 4 year mark, the program has completed 396 MW or 23%of the 1,750 MW objective.

The program is not completing MW at a rate that will allow the program tocomplete 1,750 MW by year end 2016.

It now takes about 350 days to complete a Non-Residential project and about 180days to complete a Residential project.

In the Non-Residential program more MW are cancelled or withdrawn than arecompleted.

The program is installing MW for less incentive $ than planned. Through March2011, there is about a $147 million positive variance.

Program completion and cancellation rates make it likely that 3,000 MW ofreservation requests will be needed to reach 1,750 MW of completed projects.

7

The CPUCs CSI results and a few observations


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1. Read the title of the chart first, then the y axis and x axis labels. Then review the

data.

2. The data to make these charts comes from RawDataSet_3-30-2011.csv and the

www.californiasolarstatistics.ca.gov site.

3. Some totals may be slightly different due to rounding.

4. The RawDataSet_3-30-2011.csv file has over 63,400 projects. There are

thousands of missing entries and errors. When appropriate we make corrections

or remove projects to improve the quality of the answer.

8

Notes:


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1. Project Status definitionsA. Complete and PBI In Payment, or In Payment, means the projects and MW are complete and an

Expected Performance Based Buydown (EPBB) incentive check can be sent or a Performance Based

Incentive (PBI) payment can be made.

B. Cancelled and Withdrawn means that the project and MW were cancelled or withdrawn at any time for

any reason.

C. In Process, means the project and MW are still active. Projects in process may get completed or

cancelled.D. Confirmed Reservation, or Confirmed, means the projects and the MW are approved into the program.

All projects that could possibly reach Complete and In Payment come from this category.

E. Reservation Requests Review, or Reservation Requests, means the projects and MW of applications

were submitted to the utility administrators for review. The MW may or may not receive a Confirmed

Reservation.

F. Wait List are PG&E and CCSE Non-Residential projects that due to incentive budget concerns are on

hold for unspecified amount of time. They may or may not receive Reservation Request Review statusand be officially accepted into the CSI program.

2. MW definitions

A. MW DC are PV manufacturer module nameplate MW.

B. CEC MW are a quasi estimate of AC MW. CEC MW are created using the PTC rating of a PV module and

the CEC rating of the inverters. The CEC rating of a system is on the order of 85% of the DC rating.

9

Definitions


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15104

174 168 187136

164191

468

638

10%

39%

48%

26%

23%

0

200

400

600

800

1,000

2007 2008 2009 2010 SunCentric 2011Forecast

MWDC

CSI MW DC Completed Rest of U.S. Non-Res and Res PV Installations CSI % of U.S. Installations

The CSI as a part of U.S. Non-Residential andResidential PV Installations 07 thru 10 with 11 forecast

10

The CSI remains an important part of U.S. solar PV activity.

268

365

636

825

151

U.S. totals from 2010 SEIA Report, figure 2.2, available at www.seia.org/galleries/pdf/SMI-YIR-2010-ES.pdf


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10.1

36.052.0

79.0

18.02.8

53.1

97.7

65.4

15.5

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

2007 2008 2009 2010 Q1 2011

CECMW

Residential Non-Residential

CSI Residential and Non-Residential Completions2007 thru 2010 and Q1 2011

11

Compared to 09 Residential was way up in '10. Non-Residential was way down.

12.9

89.1

149.7 144.4

33.5


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396

521

253

0

200

400

600

800

1,000

1,200

1,400

Dec-06

Mar-07

Jun-07

Sep-07

Dec-07

Mar-08

Jun-08

Sep-08

Dec-08

Mar-09

Jun-09

Sep-09

Dec-09

Mar-10

Jun-10

Sep-10

Dec-10

Mar-11

CECMW

Complete and In Payment In Process Cancelled and Withdrawn

Cumulative MW Activity of All CSI ProjectsJanuary 2007 thru March 2011

12

At the end of 4 years, the 10 year program has completed 396 MW or 23% of its 1,750 MW objective.

Year end 2016 Objective: Complete 1,750MW


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13

Cumulative Activity of All CSI ProjectsJanuary 2007 thru March 2011

There was a Reservation Request surge in the Non-Residential program in the middle of 2010 that boosted programactivity. The surge was caused by coming lower incentives and the potential that the Federal grant would expire at yearend 2010. This activity has not translated to a Completion surge. Also notice that after the surge that Reservation Requests(demand) is flattening and MW In Process are flat to down.

0

200

400

600

800

1,000

1,200

1,400

Dec-06

Mar-07

Jun-0

7

Sep-07

Dec-07

Mar-08

Jun-0

8

Sep-08

Dec-08

Mar-09

Jun-0

9

Sep-09

Dec-09

Mar-10

Jun-1

0

Sep-10

Dec-10

Mar-11

CECMW

ReservationRequests

ConfirmedReservation

Cancelled andWithdrawn

In Process

Complete

Year end 2016 objective: Complete 1,750MW


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$816

$701

$502

$0

$250

$500

$750

$1,000

$1,250

$1,500

$1,750

$2,000

$2,250

Dec-06

Mar-07

Jun-07

Sep-07

Dec-07

Mar-08

Jun-08

Sep-08

Dec-08

Mar-09

Jun-09

Sep-09

Dec-09

Mar-10

Jun-10

Sep-10

Dec-10

Mar-11

$ MilIncentive


Cumulative Incentive $ Activity of All CSI ProjectsJanuary 2007 thru March 2011

14

At year end 2010 the program had spent, or reserved for performance base incentive payments, $816 million.Notice that together Complete and In Process have flat lined at about $1,500 million.

Program Incentive Budget: $1,747.8 Million


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$0

$250

$500

$750

$1,000

$1,250

$1,500

$1,750

$2,000

$2,250

Dec-06

Mar-07

Jun-07

Sep-07

Dec-07

Mar-08

Jun-08

Sep-08

Dec-08

Mar-09

Jun-09

Sep-09

Dec-09

Mar-10

Jun-10

Sep-10

Dec-10

Mar-11

$ MilIncentive

15

Cumulative $ Incentive Activity of ALL CSI ProjectsJanuary 2007 thru March 2011

Reservation Requests

ConfirmedReservation

Cancelled and Withdrawn

In Process

Complete & In Payment

Program Incentive Budget: $1,747.8 Million

There was a Reservation Request surge in the Non-Residential program in the middle of 2010 caused by coming lowerincentives and the potential that the Federal grant would expire at year end 2010. At the end of March there was about$1,416 million in Confirmed projects. Many projects drop out after they are confirmed.


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16

2007 2008 2009 2010 End March2011

Annual Withdrawn and Cancelled ProjectsIncentive $ Millions and CEC MW 07 to 10 and Q1 11

$537 million of incentives and 285 CEC MW have been cancelled and withdrawn. Notice that the $ of incentives are nowdeclining while the MW are increasing. Based on the programs incentive structure this relationship is to be expected.

$10.4

$61.0

$84.8

$59.5

$15.8

$72.5

$69.2

$68.5

$76.2

$18.9

4.1

25.736.5 37.7

16.126.3

33.6

35.3

53.6

15.7

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

180

$0

$20

$40

$60

$80

$100

$120

$140

$160

$180

CECMW

$ MilIncentive

Withdrawn Incentive $ Cancelled Incentive $ Withdrawn CEC MW Cancelled CEC MW

$82.9

30.4

$130.1

59.2

$153.3

71.8

$135.8

91.3

$34.731.8


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Program MW completions versus MW budgetby Utility and Host Customer thru Q1 2011

17

At the 4.25 year mark of the 10 year program only PG&Es and CCSEs Residential programs are performingwell enough to potentially reach their MW budget.

Projects that are complete have received their one time incentive payment or are receiving performance basedpayments. This is the final step in the CSI process.

PG&E SCE CCSE Total

MWBudget

thruMarch2011 %Complete MWBudget



thruMarch2011 %Complete

Residential 252.4 114.6 45% 265.6 54.1 20% 59.5 26.4 44% 577.5 195.1 34%Non-Residential 512.3 125.5 25% 539.5 87.5 16% 120.8 21.5 18% 1,172.6 234.5 20%Total 764.7 240.1 31% 805.1 141.6 18% 180.3 47.9 27% 1,750.1 429.6 25%


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18

Quarterly Activity of All ProjectsQ1 2007 thru Q1 2011

Q1 '07 Q2 '07 Q3 '07 Q4 '07 Q1 '08 Q2 '08 Q3 '08 Q4 '08 Q1 '09 Q2 '09 Q3 '09 Q4 '09 Q1 '10 Q2 '10 Q3 '10 Q4 '10 Q1 '11

Reservation Requests 64.2 56.5 42.8 58.5 52.0 35.1 37.4 44.1 54.0 49.8 45.7 76.8 83.5 275.0 81.5 88.8 58.9

Confirmed Reservations 3.0 33.9 47.7 31.7 35.4 36.1 42.1 42.9 23.4 34.1 41.6 39.1 31.0 72.6 121.8 72.4 100.2

Complete and In Payment 0.0 0.6 3.2 9.1 14.2 26.4 22.2 26.3 39.5 50.4 31.9 27.8 31.8 32.7 35.2 44.7 33.5

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

CECMW

We see no indication of another Reservation Request surge as happened in Q2 2010. Q1 2011 reservationactivity was down compared to Q1 2010 reservation activity.


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177

219

0

100

200

300

400

500

Dec-06

Mar-07

Jun-07

Sep-07

Dec-07

Mar-08

Jun-08

Sep-08

Dec-08

Mar-09

Jun-09

Sep-09

Dec-09

Mar-10

Jun-10

Sep-10

Dec-10

Mar-11

CECMW

Residential Non-Residential19

Cumulative Residential and Non-ResidentialCEC MW Completed each month

At the end of 2010 the Residential program had completed 177 MW or 31% of objective.At the end of 2010 the Non-Residential program had completed 219 MW or 19% of objective.

YE 2016 Residential Objective: Complete 578 MW

YE 2016 Non-Residential Objective: Complete 1,173 MW


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20

Residential and Non-Residential CEC MWCompleted each month

0

5

10

15

20

25

Jun-07

Sep-07

Dec-07

Mar-08

Jun-08

Sep-08

Dec-08

Mar-09

Jun-09

Sep-09

Dec-09

Mar-10

Jun-10

Sep-10

Dec-10

Mar-11

CECMW



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0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

18

Jun-07

Sep-07

Dec-07

Mar-08

Jun-08

Sep-08

Dec-08

Mar-09

Jun-09

Sep-09

Dec-09

Mar-10

Jun-10

Sep-10

Dec-10

Mar-11

CECMW

Residential Non-Residential 3 per. Mov. Avg. ( Residential) 3 per. Mov. Avg. ( Non-Residential)

Residential and Non-Residential CEC MWCompleted each month with 3 month Moving Average

21


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22

Residential and Non-Residential ProjectsCompleted each month

0

200

400

600

800

1,000

1,200

1,400

1,600

1,800

2,000

Jun-07

Sep-07

Dec-07

Mar-08

Jun-08

Sep-08

Dec-08

Mar-09

Jun-09

Sep-09

Dec-09

Mar-10

Jun-10

Sep-10

Dec-10

Mar-11

# ofProjects



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177

71

19

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

Dec-06

Mar-07

Jun-07

Sep-07

Dec-07

Mar-08

Jun-08

Sep-08

Dec-08

Mar-09

Jun-09

Sep-09

Dec-09

Mar-10

Jun-10

Sep-10

Dec-10

Mar-11

CECMW

Complete and In Payment In Process Cancelled and Withdrawn23

Cumulative MW Activity of Residential ProjectsJanuary 2007 thru March 2011

YE 2016 Residential objective: Complete 578MW

At the end of 2010, the 4 year mark of the 10 year program, the Residential program has completed 177 MW or31% of its 578 MW objective.


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0

50

100

150

200

250

300

Dec-06

Mar-07

Jun-07

Sep-07

Dec-07

Mar-08

Jun-08

Sep-08

Dec-08

Mar-09

Jun-09

Sep-09

Dec-09

Mar-10

Jun-10

Sep-10

Dec-10

Mar-11

CECMW

24

ReservationRequests

ConfirmedReservations

Cancelled and Withdrawn

In Process

Completeand In Payment

Cumulative Activity of Residential ProjectsJanuary 2007 thru March 2011

The residential program has delivered steady results. However based on the rate of new Reservation Requestsand Confirmed Reservations there are indications of a gradual slowdown in activity.

YE 2016 Residential objective: Complete 578MW


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25

Residential Projects Completed each MonthJanuary 2007 thru March 2011

0

200

400

600

800

1,000

1,200

1,400

1,600

1,800

2,000

Jun-07

Sep-07

Dec-07

Mar-08

Jun-08

Sep-08

Dec-08

Mar-09

Jun-09

Sep-09

Dec-09

Mar-10

Jun-10

Sep-10

Dec-10

Mar-11

# ofProjects

There appears to be a downward trend in completed projects since September 2010.


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26

Quarterly MW Activity of Residential ProjectsQ1 2007 thru Q1 2011




Complete and In Payment - 0.4 2.9 6.8 8.1 9.5 8.9 9.6 13.0 11.4 12.4 15.2 18.4 17.1 22.4 21.1 18.0

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

CECMW

There appears to be a downward trend in residential program activity since Q2 2010.


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27

Average Size of Completed Residential SystemsIn CEC kW

As system cost has come down and system efficiency has gone up, the average residential system size hasincreased a few hundred watts.

4.0

4.2

4.4

4.6

4.8

5.0

5.2

Jun-07

Sep-07

Dec-07

Mar-08

Jun-08

Sep-08

Dec-08

Mar-09

Jun-09

Sep-09

Dec-09

Mar-10

Jun-10

Sep-10

Dec-10

Mar-11

CECkW

System Size 6 per. Mov. Avg. ( System Size)


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28

Number of Residential Projects and MW DCIn Process, by Project Size at the end of March 2011

About 13,100 projects and 80 MW DC are now In Process

812

1,635

1,809

1,974 2,010

1,340

1,001

775

458

866

237

12442 13 11

1 to 2kW 2 to 3kW 3 to 4kW 4 to 5kW 5 to 6kW 6 to 7kW 7 to 8kW 8 to 9kW 9 to 10kW 10 to15kW

15 to20kW

20 to30kW

30 to50kW

50 to100kW

> 100kW

1.2

4.2

6.3

8.8

11.0

8.7

7.5 6.6

4.3

10.3

4.03.0

1.50.8

2.1

Number or Projects

MW DC of Projects


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219

450

234

0

200

400

600

800

1,000

Dec-06

Mar-07

Jun-07

Sep-07

Dec-07

Mar-08

Jun-08

Sep-08

Dec-08

Mar-09

Jun-09

Sep-09

Dec-09

Mar-10

Jun-10

Sep-10

Dec-10

Mar-11

CECMW

Complete and In Payment In Process Cancelled and Withdrawn29


Cumulative Activity of Non-Residential ProjectsJanuary 2007 thru March 2011

At the end of 2010, the 4 year mark of the the 10 year program, the Non-Residential program has completedonly 219 MW or 19% of its 1,173MW objective.


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30

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

900

1,000

Dec-06

Mar-07

Jun-07

Sep-07

Dec-07

Mar-08

Jun-08

Sep-08

Dec-08

Mar-09

Jun-09

Sep-09

Dec-09

Mar-10

Jun-10

Sep-10

Dec-10

Mar-11

CECMW

ReservationRequests ConfirmedReservation

Cancelled &Withdrawn

In Process

Complete and In Payment

Cumulative Activity of Non-Residential ProjectsJanuary 2007 thru March 2011

Notice that more MW have been Cancelled than have been Completed. This trend will likely continue. TheReservation Request surge in 2010 was caused by coming incentive reductions and the potential that theFederal grant would expire.



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Complete and In Payment 0.0 0.2 0.3 2.3 6.1 17.0 13.3 16.7 26.5 39.1 19.5 12.6 13.4 15.5 12.9 23.6 15.5

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

31

Quarterly Activity of Non-Residential ProjectsQ1 2007 thru Q1 2011

CECMW


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32

Non-Residential Projects Completed each monthJanuary 2007 thru March 2011

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

Jun-07

Sep-07

Dec-07

Mar-08

Jun-08

Sep-08

Dec-08

Mar-09

Jun-09

Sep-09

Dec-09

Mar-10

Jun-10

Sep-10

Dec-10

Mar-11

# ofProjects


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33

Average Size of Completed Non-Residential SystemsIn CEC kW

0

50

100

150

200

250

Jun-07

Sep-07

Dec-07

Mar-08

Jun-08

Sep-08

Dec-08

Mar-09

Jun-09

Sep-09

Dec-09

Mar-10

Jun-10

Sep-10

Dec-10

Mar-11

CECkW

System Size 6 per. Mov. Avg. ( System Size)


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34

Number of Non-Residential Projects and MW DCIn Process, by Project Size at the end of March 2011

About 2,000 projects and 510 MW DC are now In Process

38

68

135

166

126

160149

115

188

139

89

301

189

144

0.1 0.2 0.9 2.4 3.16.2 9.0 10.0

22.8 24.2 19.9

106.2

125.7

184.3

< 2kW 2 to 5kW 5 to 10kW 10 to20kW

20 to30kW

30 to50kW

50 to75kW

75 to100kW

100 to150kW

150 to to200kW

200 to250kW

250 to500kW

500kW to1MW

> 1MW

Number of Projects

MW DC of Projects


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83

237

320

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

# ofProj

CCSE PG&E Total

Wait Listed PG&E and CCSE Non-Residential ProjectsWeekly cumulative Dec 15, 2010 thru Apr 20, 2011

35

Data missing ormisreported

Due to incentive budget concerns the program managers have implemented a new Non-Residential programstep. It is called Wait List. These projects have not been accepted into the program, but may receive areservation after projects now In Process are cancelled. By mid April 320 projects were on the Wait List.


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48

9

57

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

CECMW

PG&E CCSE Total

Wait Listed PG&E and CCSE Non-Residential CEC MWWeekly cumulative Dec 15, 2010 thru Apr 20, 2011

36

More than 57 MW are now on the Wait List.



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$40

$6

$47

$0

$10

$20

$30

$40

$50

Inc$ Mil

PG&E CCSE Total

Wait Listed PG&E and CCSE Non-Residential Incentive$ Million Weekly cumulative Dec 15, 10 thru Apr 20, 11

37


About $47 million of incentives are on the Wait List.


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38

Average Total Days in Process for Residential ProjectsCompleted in the Month of

Despite high awareness of the time it takes to complete a project, no consistent improvements have been seen sofar. A Residential project takes about180 daysafter the customer says YES.

20 2334 39

44 49 49 48 42 39 39 38 34 31 25 25 26 26 28 26 26 23 24 18 16 13 15 13 14 13 16 13 16 16 17 18 1921 21

36 30 23 19 18 18 17

4153

51 49

54 5158 61 72 82

88 94 101 99 106108103 99109

123118 124129

116101110

93106112

101102114107

118126

11010510110690 96

99 102110120118

40

3429 28

34 3537

4145 40

3941 36 38 38 33 37

35

3829

2126

26

26

26 22

27

2724

2731

35 40

39

45

4240 44 33 38 34

34 3535

31 38

47

811

13 11

1513

13 1216

1915

916 22 23

22

19 14

1615

11

14

11 13 1915 16 18

26

18 19

19

22

20 24 1918

2416 19 18

20 1819

0

50

100

150

200

250

Jun-07

Sep-07

Dec-07

Mar-08

Jun-08

Sep-08

Dec-08

Mar-09

Jun-09

Sep-09

Dec-09

Mar-10

Jun-10

Sep-10

Dec-10

Mar-11

Days

Reservation Requests Review to Confirmed Reservation Confirmed Reservation to Incentive Claim Requests Review

Incentive Claim to Pending Payment Date Pending Payment Date to Complete Data


39/81

39

Days in Process for Residential ProjectsCompleted in the Month of

0

25

50

75

100

125

150

Jun-07

Sep-07

Dec-07

Mar-08

Jun-08

Sep-08

Dec-08

Mar-09

Jun-09

Sep-09

Dec-09

Mar-10

Jun-10

Sep-10

Dec-10

Mar-11

Days

Reservation Requests Review to Confirmed Reservation Confirmed Reservation to Incentive Claim Requests Review



40/81

40

Average Total Days in Process for Non-ResidentialProjects, Completed in the Month of

5069 77

4870 72

87

44

90

133106106

136118

87109

7799

83 86

142119

136112

91 101113

145

78 75101 99

128105

73 76101 98

7396 97 103

11595

121142

23

3752

59

76 57

81

71

96

102

113123

128141

129

205

159

239

142146

171184

176

150177

192175

157

152153

189194

181

161

174148

165180

159115

148118

110163121

207

43

37

29

24

3235

38

47

52

80

65 41

72

46

41

66

46

58

5571

69

4744

73 49

57 7059

50 58

58 43

67

5567

52

5455

6181

82

97

53

5665

42

8

226

9

1010

19

22

19

19

2226

31

16

23

44

27

24

25

22

41

3035

4048

4460 45

30 27

49

44

34

5041

54

38 26

27 39

3237

34

3827

13

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

450

Jun-07

Sep-07

Dec-07

Mar-08

Jun-08

Sep-08

Dec-08

Mar-09

Jun-09

Sep-09

Dec-09

Mar-10

Jun-10

Sep-10

Dec-10

Mar-11

Days

Reservation Requests to Confirmed Reservation Confirmed Reservation to Incentive Claim Requests Review


Despite high awareness of the time it takes to complete a project, it is not clear if there is long termimprovement. We notice that from December 2009 to February 2011 there was a gradual downward trend. ANon-Residential project still takes about 350 days.


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41

Days in Process for Non-Residential ProjectsCompleted in the Month of

0

50

100

150

200

250

Jun-07

Sep-07

Dec-07

Mar-08

Jun-08

Sep-08

Dec-08

Mar-09

Jun-09

Sep-09

Dec-09

Mar-10

Jun-10

Sep-10

Dec-10

Mar-11

Days

Reservation Requests to Confirmed Reservation Confirmed Reservation to Incentive Claim Requests Review



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42

CEC MW Completed by Utility for eachHost Customer type thru March 2011

PG&E SCE CCSEObjective 764.8MW 805.0MW 180.3MW

Completed 240.1MW 141.6MW 47.9MW

% so far 28.4% 15.9% 24.7%

PG&E SCE CCSE

Residential 114.6 54.1 26.4

Non-Profit 7.0 1.8 1.6

Government 37.3 12.8 4.9

Commercial 81.2 72.9 15.0

0

50

100

150

200

250

CECMW


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240.1

141.6

47.9

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

Dec-06

Mar-07

Jun-07

Sep-07

Dec-07

Mar-08

Jun-08

Sep-08

Dec-08

Mar-09

Jun-09

Sep-09

Dec-09

Mar-10

Jun-10

Sep-10

Dec-10

Mar-11

CECMW

PG&E SCE CCSE

43

YE 2016 PG&E objective: Complete 764.8MW

YE 2016 SCE objective: Complete 805.0MW

YE 2016 CCSE objective: Complete 180.3MW

Cumulative CEC MW Completed by Utilitythru March 2011


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44

CEC MW Completed by Utility by QuarterQ1 2007 thru Q1 2011

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40


CECMW

PG&E SCE CCSE


45/81

15

1114

1210

1417

10

18

24

20 19

35 3532

20

$0

$1

$2

$3

$4

$5

$6

$7

$8

$9


$/DCWatt

Residential Price and DemandConfirmed Projects Q1 2007 thru Q1 2011

45

Residential prices have stabilized. There have been many new MW of confirmations since the Federal taxcredit was increased in Q3 08. At current prices it appears that demand may be moderating or declining.

Installed price / watt

CSI incentive / watt

Installed price / wattAFTER CSI incentive

Confirmed DC MW

Installed price / watt AFTERCSI and Federal tax credit


46/81

Change in Residential price by system sizeQ1 Comparison 2007 thru 2011

46

A comparison of each Q1 since the program began in 2007 shows that the installed $/DC watt price has fallenacross all size ranges. A significant decline is noted between Q1 2009 and Q1 2010.

$5

$6

$7

$8

$9

$10

$11

$12


15 to20kW

20 to30kW

$/DCWatt

Q1 '07 Q1 '08 Q1 '09 Q1 '10 Q1 '11


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Change in Residential price by system sizeComparison Q2 10 thru Q1 11

47

$5

$6

$7

$8

$9

$10


15 to20kW

20 to30kW

Q2 '10 Q3 '10 Q4 '10 Q1 '11

$/DCWatt

Over the past four quarters the installed price has stabilized across most size categories.


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2

3040

1823 21

29 27

14 1721 23

12

48

104

52

92

$0

$1

$2

$3

$4

$5

$6

$7

$8

$9


$/DCWatt

Non-Residential Price and DemandConfirmed Projects Q1 2007 thru Q1 2011

48

Installed price / watt

CSI incentive / watt

Installed price / watt AFTER CSI incentive

Confirmed MW DC

After a period of decline, prices have moderated and appear to be trending up a bit. Current prices, and theFederal cash grant, stimulated demand in 2010 and in Q1 2011. The value of the Federal tax credit, or cash grant,which substantially reduces the system price, is not included in this view.


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Change in Non-Residential price by system sizeQ1 Comparison 2008 thru 2011

49

$4

$5

$6

$7

$8

$9

$10

1 to 5kW 5 to 10kW 10 to 15kW 15 to 20kW 20 to 30kW 30 to 50kW 50 to100kW

100 to200kW

200 to300kW

200 to300kW

> 500kW

Q1 '08 Q1 '09 Q1 '10 Q1 '11

$/DCWatt

A comparison of each Q1 since the program began in 2007 shows that the installed $/DC watt price has fallenacross all size ranges. Some of the bumpiness is due to small amounts of data in a given size group.


50/81

Change in Non-Residential price by system sizeComparison Q2 2010 thru Q1 2011

50

$/DCWatt

$4

$5

$6

$7

$8

1 to 5kW 5 to 10kW 10 to 15kW 15 to 20kW 20 to 30kW 30 to 50kW 50 to100kW

100 to200kW

200 to300kW

200 to300kW

> 500kW

Q2 '10 Q3 '10 Q4 '10 Q1 '11

Over the past four quarters the installed price has stabilized across most size categories. Some of thebumpiness is due to small amounts of data in a given size group.


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51

ProjectTotalCost Incentive CEC

% ofCEC Project

TotalCost Incentive CEC

% ofCEC Project


% ofCEC Project


% ofCEC

Summary Count $ Mil $ Mil MW MW Count $ Mil $ Mil MW MW Count $ Mil $ Mil MW MW Count $ Mil $ Mil MW MW

Total First 50 30,352 6,083.1$ 1,556.9$ 898.9 73.2% 8,070 2,380.2$ 518.6$ 392.0 76.2% 19,739 2,337.3$ 610.6$ 285.2 66.4% 2,543 1,365.6$ 427.6$ 221.6 77.9%

Total Second 50 7,669 747.4$ 186.4$ 109.6 8.9% 1,058 178.0$ 34.5$ 30.7 6.0% 5,960 380.5$ 88.4$ 44.8 10.4% 651 188.8$ 63.5$ 34.0 12.0%

Total Third 50 5,548 423.0$ 87.1$ 55.9 4.5% 1,119 142.7$ 31.8$ 21.6 4.2% 4,031 212.9$ 40.1$ 25.1 5.9% 398 67.4$ 15.2$ 9.2 3.2%

Total of the Top 150 43,569 7,253.5$ 1,830.4$ 1,064.3 86.6% 10,247 2,701.0$ 584.9$ 444.4 86.4% 29,730 2,930.8$ 739.1$ 355.2 82.7% 3,592 1,621.7$ 506.4$ 264.8 93.0%

All Others - More than 1,800 19,877 1,221.5$ 227.8$ 164.0 13.4% 4,885 444.8$ 78.7$ 69.8 13.6% 13,365 629.3$ 118.7$ 74.4 17.3% 1,627 147.3$ 30.4$ 19.8 7.0%

Program Total 63,446 8,474.9$ 2,058.2$ 1,228.3 100.0% 15,132 3,145.8$ 663.6$ 514.2 100.0% 43,095 3,560.1$ 857.8$ 429.6 100.0% 5,219 1,769.1$ 536.8$ 284.6 100.0%

All Projects In Process Complete and In Payment Cancelled and Withdrawn

Summary of results by Contractor thru Q1 2011

Over 1,950 contractors have participated in the program so far

Of the 1,950 contractors more than 1,100 have 3 or less projects reserved

The Top 150 contractors have done about 85% of All Projects

Summary results for the Top 150 follows on the next three slides


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52

Project

Total

Cost Incentive CEC

% of

CEC Project

Total

Cost Incentive CEC

% of

CEC Project

Total

Cost Incentive CEC

% of

CEC Project

Total

Cost Incentive CEC

% of

CEC

MW Contractor Name - First 50 Count $ Mil $ Mil MW MW Count $ Mil $ Mil MW MW Count $ Mil $ Mil MW MW Count $ Mil $ Mil MW MW

1 SunPower Corporation Systems 311 884.9$ 265.5$ 129.6 10.6% 101 262.8$ 73.2$ 40.4 7.9% 100 331.2$ 102.2$ 42.7 9.9% 110 290.9$ 90.1$ 46.5 16.4%2 Sun Edison/Team Solar Inc 257 671.6$ 180.2$ 104.0 8.5% 89 270.7$ 40.4$ 45.3 8.8% 101 238.1$ 90.4$ 30.9 7.2% 67 162.8$ 49.3$ 27.7 9.7%

3 SolarCity 7,087 668.7$ 96.9$ 74.8 6.1% 2,779 397.5$ 49.9$ 47.7 9.3% 3,675 210.2$ 36.0$ 20.7 4.8% 633 61.0$ 11.0$ 6.4 2.3%

4 Chevron Energy Solutions Inc 227 546.8$ 153.4$ 73.0 5.9% 99 208.0$ 53.8$ 29.3 5.7% 47 150.3$ 35.5$ 15.0 3.5% 81 188.5$ 64.1$ 28.7 10.1%5 REC Solar Inc 4,004 348.7$ 85.5$ 52.2 4.2% 534 84.2$ 17.0$ 14.9 2.9% 3,255 214.9$ 54.4$ 28.5 6.6% 215 49.5$ 14.2$ 8.8 3.1%

6 None Listed 410 256.2$ 87.7$ 50.6 4.1% 167 84.0$ 23.2$ 18.7 3.6% 45 11.1$ 2.1$ 1.0 0.2% 198 161.1$ 62.4$ 30.9 10.9%7 SPG Solar Inc 693 337.6$ 97.2$ 50.1 4.1% 36 89.7$ 24.2$ 16.3 3.2% 565 161.2$ 47.3$ 20.7 4.8% 92 86.6$ 25.6$ 13.1 4.6%8 Real Goods 3,733 229.8$ 48.5$ 28.2 2.3% 897 68.5$ 11.5$ 8.4 1.6% 2,683 122.5$ 23.7$ 14.4 3.4% 153 38.8$ 13.3$ 5.4 1.9%

9 Borrego Solar Systems Inc 703 187.9$ 46.1$ 26.2 2.1% 41 86.0$ 18.5$ 15.0 2.9% 596 64.7$ 16.1$ 6.6 1.5% 66 37.1$ 11.4$ 4.6 1.6%10 Rosendin Electric Inc 44 96.7$ 28.2$ 18.7 1.5% 44 96.7$ 28.2$ 18.7 3.6% - -$ -$ - 0.0% - -$ -$ - 0.0%

11 Swinerton Builders Inc 20 67.8$ 26.2$ 14.3 1.2% 13 42.1$ 18.9$ 10.3 2.0% 3 1.1$ 0.1$ 0.2 0.0% 4 24.6$ 7.2$ 3.7 1.3%12 PermaCity Construction Corp. 153 86.4$ 26.1$ 14.1 1.1% 38 32.1$ 10.3$ 5.9 1.2% 104 49.9$ 14.5$ 7.2 1.7% 11 4.4$ 1.2$ 0.9 0.3%13 Conergy Projects Inc 80 87.4$ 26.1$ 14.1 1.1% 16 9.8$ 2.4$ 2.8 0.6% 51 56.3$ 18.5$ 7.5 1.7% 13 21.3$ 5.3$ 3.7 1.3%

14 Akeena Solar Inc 2,159 111.6$ 23.8$ 13.9 1.1% 57 9.4$ 3.0$ 1.4 0.3% 1,955 93.8$ 18.0$ 10.7 2.5% 147 8.4$ 2.9$ 1.8 0.6%15 Stellar Energy Solutions Inc 44 92.7$ 17.8$ 13.6 1.1% 28 52.0$ 10.0$ 9.1 1.8% 7 31.3$ 4.1$ 2.4 0.6% 9 9.4$ 3.6$ 2.1 0.8%

16 PsomasFMG, LLC 31 68.0$ 10.1$ 13.5 1.1% 31 68.0$ 10.1$ 13.5 2.6% - -$ -$ - 0.0% - -$ -$ - 0.0%17 BP Solar International Inc 31 95.4$ 29.3$ 12.2 1.0% 5 11.0$ 3.0$ 1.7 0.3% 22 75.7$ 23.8$ 9.4 2.2% 4 8.7$ 2.4$ 1.1 0.4%18 BAP Power Corporation 32 53.4$ 14.6$ 11.8 1.0% 19 37.5$ 10.4$ 8.5 1.7% 10 15.2$ 4.0$ 3.0 0.7% 3 0.7$ 0.2$ 0.3 0.1%

19 Self-Install 1,172 68.8$ 19.4$ 11.4 0.9% 257 31.5$ 9.4$ 5.6 1.1% 812 28.3$ 7.2$ 4.3 1.0% 103 8.9$ 2.8$ 1.6 0.5%20 Suntech America Inc 31 67.4$ 23.7$ 10.2 0.8% 1 0.8$ 0.2$ 0.1 0.0% 11 31.0$ 10.6$ 3.8 0.9% 19 35.6$ 12.9$ 6.4 2.2%

21 Petersen-Dean Inc 1,213 64.2$ 10.7$ 9.8 0.8% 652 40.3$ 6.4$ 6.3 1.2% 512 17.5$ 2.8$ 2.6 0.6% 49 6.4$ 1.6$ 1.0 0.3%22 Prem ier Power Renewable Energy Inc 461 65.2$ 15.9$ 9.5 0.8% 61 16.9$ 4.1$ 3.4 0.7% 362 43.0$ 9.7$ 4.9 1.1% 38 5.3$ 2.0$ 1.3 0.5%23 Cupertino Electric Inc 39 42.0$ 11.2$ 7.9 0.6% 20 24.5$ 7.1$ 5.4 1.1% 12 10.2$ 2.6$ 1.2 0.3% 7 7.4$ 1.6$ 1.3 0.5%

24 Pacific Power Management, LLC 16 57.4$ 18.9$ 7.8 0.6% - -$ -$ - 0.0% 11 32.1$ 10.0$ 4.7 1.1% 5 25.3$ 8.9$ 3.2 1.1%25 Solar Power Systems 96 46.3$ 15.3$ 7.5 0.6% 15 20.0$ 6.3$ 3.2 0.6% 63 13.0$ 3.9$ 1.9 0.4% 18 13.4$ 5.1$ 2.4 0.9%26 Acro Energy Technologies Inc 1,040 51.2$ 10.6$ 6.9 0.6% 173 7.3$ 0.7$ 1.1 0.2% 699 35.3$ 7.2$ 4.3 1.0% 168 8.6$ 2.6$ 1.5 0.5%

27 Erickson Construction Co. 20 42.4$ 9.3$ 6.0 0.5% 2 5.4$ 1.1$ 1.0 0.2% 14 19.7$ 4.8$ 2.5 0.6% 4 17.3$ 3.4$ 2.5 0.9%28 Milender White Construction Co 49 29.1$ 4.3$ 5.5 0.4% 45 27.6$ 4.1$ 5.2 1.0% - -$ -$ - 0.0% 4 1.6$ 0.3$ 0.3 0.1%

29 CSI Electrical Contractors Inc 19 28.3$ 5.1$ 5.5 0.4% 18 28.2$ 5.1$ 5.4 1.1% 1 0.1$ 0.0$ 0.0 0.0% - -$ -$ - 0.0%30 Granite Bay Energy 119 37.3$ 8.1$ 5.4 0.4% 14 11.8$ 2.7$ 2.2 0.4% 91 21.0$ 4.5$ 2.6 0.6% 14 4.5$ 0.9$ 0.6 0.2%31 HelioPower Inc 709 38.3$ 8.7$ 5.4 0.4% 159 10.6$ 2.2$ 1.7 0.3% 508 24.5$ 5.7$ 3.3 0.8% 42 3.2$ 0.7$ 0.4 0.1%

32 Sun Nanosys 421 41.1$ 8.4$ 5.3 0.4% 45 13.6$ 3.0$ 2.3 0.4% 354 25.8$ 5.0$ 2.7 0.6% 22 1.6$ 0.5$ 0.3 0.1%33 Chico Electric 74 35.8$ 8.2$ 5.3 0.4% 15 12.2$ 2.2$ 1.8 0.4% 55 18.9$ 4.8$ 2.7 0.6% 4 4.8$ 1.2$ 0.7 0.3%34 Independent Energy Solutions Inc 41 31.9$ 10.5$ 5.2 0.4% 7 13.2$ 4.6$ 2.7 0.5% 30 17.8$ 5.5$ 2.4 0.6% 4 1.0$ 0.4$ 0.1 0.1%

35 Stronghold Engineering Inc 9 30.8$ 9.1$ 5.2 0.4% 5 27.2$ 8.0$ 4.6 0.9% 1 1.9$ 0.5$ 0.2 0.0% 3 1.6$ 0.6$ 0.4 0.1%36 Martifer Solar USA Inc 92 27.0$ 8.0$ 5.1 0.4% 22 5.7$ 1.4$ 1.2 0.2% 58 5.5$ 1.9$ 0.8 0.2% 12 15.8$ 4.7$ 3.1 1.1%

37 Johnson Controls 22 28.3$ 10.1$ 5.1 0.4% 19 26.4$ 9.7$ 4.8 0.9% 1 0.8$ 0.2$ 0.1 0.0% 2 1.0$ 0.3$ 0.2 0.1%

38 DRI Energy 13 27.6$ 5.6$ 5.1 0.4% 7 23.8$ 4.6$ 4.5 0.9% 5 3.9$ 0.9$ 0.5 0.1% 1 -$ 0.1$ 0.1 0.0%39 Verengo 1,180 39.1$ 7.4$ 5.0 0.4% 590 19.0$ 3.3$ 2.5 0.5% 567 19.2$ 3.9$ 2.4 0.5% 23 0.9$ 0.2$ 0.1 0.0%

40 SunWize Technologies Inc 407 37.4$ 9.7$ 4.6 0.4% 37 4.0$ 0.7$ 0.5 0.1% 328 27.0$ 7.3$ 3.2 0.8% 42 6.4$ 1.7$ 0.9 0.3%41 AECOM Technical Services 20 13.7$ 5.1$ 4.6 0.4% 20 13.7$ 5.1$ 4.6 0.9% - -$ -$ - 0.0% - -$ -$ - 0.0%

42 SolarCraft Services Inc 426 31.6$ 6.6$ 4.5 0.4% 57 6.6$ 1.7$ 1.5 0.3% 355 20.4$ 3.8$ 2.4 0.6% 14 4.5$ 1.2$ 0.6 0.2%43 Sullivan Solar Power 513 31.4$ 6.9$ 4.2 0.3% 108 11.1$ 2.4$ 1.8 0.3% 392 19.5$ 4.3$ 2.4 0.6% 13 0.8$ 0.2$ 0.1 0.0%44 Sunlight Electric LLC 44 19.5$ 7.4$ 4.2 0.3% 7 0.9$ 0.9$ 0.6 0.1% 19 14.3$ 3.4$ 1.6 0.4% 18 4.3$ 3.1$ 1.9 0.7%

45 Bass Electric Company 20 23.2$ 4.6$ 3.9 0.3% 10 11.1$ 2.4$ 2.1 0.4% 5 6.7$ 1.7$ 0.8 0.2% 5 5.4$ 0.4$ 0.9 0.3%46 Desert Solar 38 23.2$ 8.3$ 3.9 0.3% 10 13.2$ 6.2$ 2.4 0.5% 21 1.2$ 0.3$ 0.2 0.0% 7 8.8$ 1.8$ 1.3 0.5%47 Sungevity Inc 972 37.2$ 3.2$ 3.7 0.3% 460 20.9$ 1.5$ 2.0 0.4% 482 15.6$ 1.6$ 1.6 0.4% 30 0.7$ 0.1$ 0.1 0.0%

48 Permacity Solar Inc 6 17.4$ 4.3$ 3.5 0.3% 4 10.4$ 2.2$ 2.1 0.4% 1 2.2$ 0.7$ 0.4 0.1% 1 4.8$ 1.3$ 1.0 0.4%49 The Solar Company 598 30.3$ 4.0$ 3.5 0.3% 170 9.1$ 0.8$ 1.1 0.2% 391 18.3$ 2.7$ 2.1 0.5% 37 2.8$ 0.4$ 0.3 0.1%

50 Solar Technologies 453 27.0$ 5.3$ 3.4 0.3% 66 3.3$ 0.4$ 0.5 0.1% 359 14.7$ 2.5$ 1.8 0.4% 28 8.9$ 2.4$ 1.2 0.4%

Total First 50 30,352 6,083.1$ 1,556.9$ 898.9 73.2% 8,070 2,380.2$ 518.6$ 392.0 76.2% 19,739 2,337.3$ 610.6$ 285.2 66.4% 2,543 1,365.6$ 427.6$ 221.6 77.9%

Program Total 63,446 8,474.9$ 2,058.2$ 1,228.3 15,132 3,145.8$ 663.6$ 514.2 43,095 3,560.1$ 857.8$ 429.6 5,219 1,769.1$ 536.8$ 284.6

% of Program Total 47.8% 71.8% 75.6% 73.2% 53.3% 75.7% 78.2% 76.2% 45.8% 65.7% 71.2% 66.4% 48.7% 77.2% 79.7% 77.9%

Complete and In Payment Cancelled and W ithdrawnRankedAll Proj

CEC

All Projects In Process

Results by Contractor thru March 2011 First 50


53/81

53

Project

Total

Cost Incentive CEC

% of

CEC Project

Total

Cost Incentive CEC

% of

CEC Project

Total

Cost Incentive CEC

% of

CEC Project

Total

Cost Incentive CEC

% of

CEC

MW Contractor Name - Second 50 Count $ Mil $ Mil MW MW Count $ Mil $ Mil MW MW Count $ Mil $ Mil MW MW Count $ Mil $ Mil MW MW

51 TMAG Industries dba Stellar Solar 265 21.9$ 5.3$ 3.4 0.3% 33 7.6$ 2.3$ 1.6 0.3% 214 9.7$ 1.9$ 1.2 0.3% 18 4.6$ 1.1$ 0.6 0.2%52 Advanced Solar Electric Inc 632 31.2$ 6.8$ 3.4 0.3% 40 1.5$ 0.3$ 0.2 0.0% 518 23.9$ 5.2$ 2.6 0.6% 74 5.8$ 1.3$ 0.6 0.2%

53 Unlimited Energy Inc 259 24.7$ 8.7$ 3.3 0.3% 21 0.9$ 0.1$ 0.2 0.0% 195 21.6$ 8.0$ 2.8 0.7% 43 2.2$ 0.6$ 0.3 0.1%

54 WorldWater & Solar Tec hnologies Corp 14 22.3$ 11.2$ 3.3 0.3% 1 -$ 0.0$ 0.0 0.0% 9 17.1$ 8.3$ 2.0 0.5% 4 5.2$ 2.9$ 1.3 0.4%55 Sierra Pacific Home & Comfort Inc 560 25.1$ 4.1$ 3.2 0.3% 83 4.5$ 0.5$ 0.6 0.1% 399 16.3$ 2.7$ 2.0 0.5% 78 4.3$ 0.9$ 0.5 0.2%56 Siemens Building Technologies 294 26.2$ 6.7$ 3.0 0.2% 13 0.6$ 0.1$ 0.1 0.0% 256 14.6$ 3.3$ 1.6 0.4% 25 11.0$ 3.3$ 1.2 0.4%

57 Southern California Solar 290 24.6$ 5.9$ 2.9 0.2% 32 5.7$ 1.5$ 0.8 0.2% 226 12.8$ 2.8$ 1.4 0.3% 32 6.2$ 1.6$ 0.7 0.2%58 Genesis Renewable Energy 4 15.2$ 3.2$ 2.8 0.2% 4 15.2$ 3.2$ 2.8 0.5% - -$ -$ - 0.0% - -$ -$ - 0.0%59 Bleyco Inc 9 19.7$ 5.6$ 2.8 0.2% - -$ -$ (0.0) 0.0% 8 17.7$ 5.2$ 2.5 0.6% 1 2.0$ 0.4$ 0.2 0.1%

60 M B L & Sons Inc 14 24.8$ 4.7$ 2.8 0.2% 7 18.3$ 3.2$ 2.0 0.4% 6 6.5$ 1.4$ 0.7 0.2% 1 -$ 0.0$ 0.0 0.0%61 Cobalt Power Systems Inc 435 21.9$ 3.3$ 2.7 0.2% 72 3.3$ 0.2$ 0.4 0.1% 362 18.6$ 3.1$ 2.3 0.5% 1 0.0$ 0.0$ 0.0 0.0%62 Strong Electric & Solar 11 18.0$ 3.9$ 2.7 0.2% 3 10.1$ 1.8$ 1.7 0.3% 2 0.1$ 0.0$ 0.0 0.0% 6 7.8$ 2.1$ 1.0 0.4%

63 Regenesis Power LLC 4 18.9$ 7.2$ 2.7 0.2% - -$ -$ - 0.0% - -$ -$ - 0.0% 4 18.9$ 7.2$ 2.7 1.0%64 Bright Power Inc 6 14.0$ 3.4$ 2.7 0.2% 4 7.0$ 1.9$ 1.1 0.2% 1 3.9$ 0.7$ 0.5 0.1% 1 3.1$ 0.9$ 1.1 0.4%65 Global Solar Corporation 345 20.1$ 4.0$ 2.6 0.2% 42 1.3$ 0.1$ 0.2 0.0% 291 13.2$ 2.5$ 1.7 0.4% 12 5.6$ 1.3$ 0.7 0.2%

66 Barrier Specialty Roofing & Coatings 23 10.2$ 2.3$ 2.5 0.2% 18 7.7$ 1.9$ 2.1 0.4% 2 2.4$ 0.4$ 0.3 0.1% 3 0.1$ 0.0$ 0.0 0.0%67 Mohr Power Solar Inc 541 24.4$ 5.0$ 2.4 0.2% 62 2.8$ 0.4$ 0.3 0.1% 411 18.3$ 3.9$ 1.8 0.4% 68 3.3$ 0.7$ 0.3 0.1%68 NextEnergy Corp. 452 20.1$ 3.5$ 2.4 0.2% 42 1.8$ 0.2$ 0.3 0.0% 394 17.7$ 3.2$ 2.1 0.5% 16 0.5$ 0.1$ 0.1 0.0%

69 Sunkiss Solar 35 17.2$ 4.8$ 2.3 0.2% 9 0.6$ 0.1$ 0.1 0.0% 16 0.9$ 0.2$ 0.1 0.0% 10 15.7$ 4.6$ 2.1 0.7%70 AMSOLAR Corporation 9 0.0$ 1.9$ 2.2 0.2% - -$ -$ - 0.0% 1 0.0$ 0.0$ 0.0 0.0% 8 0.0$ 1.9$ 2.2 0.8%

71 Solar Integrated Technologies Inc 10 17.0$ 5.8$ 2.1 0.2% 1 0.3$ 0.1$ 0.0 0.0% 8 16.2$ 5.7$ 2.1 0.5% 1 0.5$ 0.1$ 0.0 0.0%72 Valley Unique Electr ic DBA Solar Universe 269 14.5$ 1.9$ 2.1 0.2% 104 6.8$ 0.8$ 1.0 0.2% 155 7.4$ 1.1$ 1.0 0.2% 10 0.3$ 0.1$ 0.1 0.0%73 Panelized Structrures dba Panelized Solar 12 13.1$ 1.3$ 2.1 0.2% 11 12.6$ 1.2$ 2.1 0.4% - -$ -$ - 0.0% 1 0.5$ 0.1$ 0.1 0.0%74 3rd Rock Systems & Technologies Inc 9 8.6$ 4.5$ 2.1 0.2% - -$ -$ - 0.0% 2 1.5$ 0.4$ 0.2 0.0% 7 7.1$ 4.1$ 1.9 0.7%

75 Baker Electric 13 14.1$ 2.8$ 2.1 0.2% 12 12.1$ 1.9$ 1.9 0.4% 1 2.1$ 0.9$ 0.2 0.1% - -$ -$ - 0.0%76 Professional Electrical Contractors 3 11.0$ 2.3$ 2.0 0.2% - -$ -$ - 0.0% 1 0.2$ 0.0$ 0.0 0.0% 2 10.8$ 2.2$ 2.0 0.7%77 AMG Energy Inc 2 7.6$ 4.2$ 2.0 0.2% - -$ -$ - 0.0% - -$ -$ - 0.0% 2 7.6$ 4.2$ 2.0 0.7%

78 Interior Electric Incorporated 10 14.0$ 3.2$ 2.0 0.2% - -$ -$ - 0.0% 3 7.7$ 2.4$ 1.0 0.2% 7 6.3$ 0.8$ 1.0 0.4%79 Renewable Technologies Inc 29 15.3$ 4.1$ 1.9 0.2% 2 0.4$ 0.1$ 0.1 0.0% 18 5.0$ 1.1$ 0.6 0.1% 9 9.9$ 2.9$ 1.3 0.5%80 TBD - Pending RFP 4 0.2$ 3.0$ 1.9 0.2% - -$ -$ - 0.0% 1 0.2$ 0.1$ 0.0 0.0% 3 -$ 2.9$ 1.9 0.7%81 Suntrek Industries Inc 209 12.7$ 2.9$ 1.9 0.2% 37 3.6$ 0.8$ 0.8 0.1% 157 7.6$ 1.5$ 0.9 0.2% 15 1.5$ 0.5$ 0.3 0.1%

82 Harbison-Mahony-Higgins Builders Inc 2 15.6$ 3.8$ 1.9 0.2% 1 6.2$ 2.0$ 0.9 0.2% 1 9.4$ 1.9$ 1.0 0.2% - -$ -$ - 0.0%83 SunPower Services 2 16.0$ 1.9$ 1.9 0.2% - -$ -$ - 0.0% 1 0.0$ 0.0$ 0.0 0.0% 1 15.9$ 1.9$ 1.9 0.7%84 Solar World California LLC 301 14.8$ 2.5$ 1.8 0.1% 41 1.7$ 0.1$ 0.2 0.0% 250 12.7$ 2.2$ 1.5 0.3% 10 0.4$ 0.1$ 0.1 0.0%

85 Trane Inc 4 4.7$ 2.4$ 1.8 0.1% 4 4.7$ 2.4$ 1.8 0.4% - -$ -$ - 0.0% - -$ -$ - 0.0%86 Sequoia Solar Inc - Solana Beach 205 12.6$ 2.9$ 1.8 0.1% 20 1.0$ 0.1$ 0.1 0.0% 169 9.7$ 2.1$ 1.2 0.3% 16 1.9$ 0.7$ 0.4 0.1%87 Stout & Burg Electric Inc 770 23.3$ 2.9$ 1.8 0.1% 67 2.7$ 0.3$ 0.3 0.1% 677 19.7$ 2.5$ 1.4 0.3% 26 0.9$ 0.1$ 0.1 0.0%

88 Pure Energy Systems Inc 242 10.8$ 2.6$ 1.7 0.1% 27 1.2$ 0.1$ 0.2 0.0% 202 9.2$ 1.6$ 1.2 0.3% 13 0.4$ 0.8$ 0.4 0.1%89 MC2 Engineering & Construction Svcs. Inc 20 10.4$ 2.5$ 1.7 0.1% 6 4.9$ 1.2$ 0.9 0.2% 14 5.5$ 1.3$ 0.8 0.2% - -$ -$ - 0.0%90 Horizon Energy Systems 347 14.2$ 2.5$ 1.7 0.1% 26 1.1$ 0.1$ 0.1 0.0% 298 12.2$ 2.2$ 1.4 0.3% 23 1.0$ 0.2$ 0.1 0.0%

91 Solar Distributors Inc 161 14.1$ 4.0$ 1.7 0.1% 20 1.6$ 0.3$ 0.2 0.0% 121 10.4$ 2.7$ 1.0 0.2% 20 2.1$ 1.0$ 0.4 0.2%92 Adema Technologies dba Gloria Solar 4 6.9$ 0.8$ 1.6 0.1% 4 6.9$ 0.8$ 1.6 0.3% - -$ -$ - 0.0% - -$ -$ - 0.0%93 MMA Renewable Ventures 2 13.9$ 4.4$ 1.6 0.1% - -$ -$ - 0.0% - -$ -$ - 0.0% 2 13.9$ 4.4$ 1.6 0.6%

94 Revco Solar Engineering Inc 254 13.9$ 3.1$ 1.6 0.1% 25 2.0$ 0.3$ 0.2 0.0% 190 9.1$ 2.1$ 1.0 0.2% 39 2.9$ 0.6$ 0.3 0.1%95 Compass Energy Solutions 6 1.4$ 2.3$ 1.6 0.1% 4 0.9$ 0.7$ 0.5 0.1% - -$ -$ - 0.0% 2 0.5$ 1.6$ 1.0 0.4%96 Elite Electric 75 8.9$ 3.0$ 1.5 0.1% 42 2.1$ 0.4$ 0.3 0.1% 32 1.6$ 0.3$ 0.2 0.0% 1 5.2$ 2.3$ 1.0 0.4%

97 Contra Costa Electric Inc 2 7.9$ 1.7$ 1.5 0.1% 2 7.9$ 1.7$ 1.5 0.3% - -$ -$ - 0.0% - -$ -$ - 0.0%98 Shamrock Renewable Energy Services Inc 18 7.2$ 1.3$ 1.4 0.1% 5 3.8$ 0.7$ 0.9 0.2% 12 3.4$ 0.5$ 0.5 0.1% 1 -$ 0.1$ 0.1 0.0%99 Solar Plus 287 11.6$ 2.4$ 1.4 0.1% 45 1.9$ 0.3$ 0.3 0.0% 223 8.8$ 1.9$ 1.0 0.2% 19 0.9$ 0.2$ 0.1 0.0%

100 Bland Solar & Air Inc 195 10.4$ 1.8$ 1.4 0.1% 66 2.6$ 0.3$ 0.4 0.1% 113 5.7$ 0.9$ 0.7 0.2% 16 2.1$ 0.5$ 0.4 0.1%

Total Second 50 7,669 747.4$ 186.4$ 109.6 8.9% 1,058 178.0$ 34.5$ 30.7 6.0% 5,960 380.5$ 88.4$ 44.8 10.4% 651 188.8$ 63.5$ 34.0 12.0%

Program Total 63,446 8,474.9$ 2,058.2$ 1,228.3 15,132 3,145.8$ 663.6$ 514.2 43,095 3,560.1$ 857.8$ 429.6 5,219 1,769.1$ 536.8$ 284.6

% of Program Total 12.1% 8.8% 9.1% 8.9% 7.0% 5.7% 5.2% 6.0% 13.8% 10.7% 10.3% 10.4% 12.5% 10.7% 11.8% 12.0%

Ranked

All Proj

CEC


Results by Contractor thru March 2011 Second 50


54/81

54

Project

Total

Cost Incentive CEC

% of

CEC Project

Total

Cost Incentive CEC

% of

CEC Project

Total

Cost Incentive CEC

% of

CEC Project

Total

Cost Incentive CEC

% of

CEC

MW Contractor Name - Third 50 Count $ Mil $ Mil MW MW Count $ Mil $ Mil MW MW Count $ Mil $ Mil MW MW Count $ Mil $ Mil MW MW

101 Shorebreak Energy Developers 11 9.0$ 1.8$ 1.4 0.1% 11 9.0$ 1.8$ 1.4 0.3% - -$ -$ - 0.0% - -$ -$ - 0.0%

102 JKB Development Inc 15 11.5$ 1.8$ 1.4 0.1% 5 1.7$ 0.1$ 0.3 0.1% 10 9.8$ 1.6$ 1.1 0.3% - -$ -$ - 0.0%103 Luminalt Energy Corporation 437 12.3$ 1.8$ 1.4 0.1% 115 3.0$ 0.2$ 0.4 0.1% 306 8.0$ 1.1$ 0.8 0.2% 16 1.2$ 0.5$ 0.2 0.1%

104 Nova West Solar Inc 181 10.4$ 1.8$ 1.4 0.1% 36 1.8$ 0.2$ 0.3 0.1% 125 7.3$ 1.4$ 0.9 0.2% 20 1.3$ 0.3$ 0.2 0.1%105 California Solar Electric 212 10.4$ 2.4$ 1.3 0.1% 18 1.8$ 0.3$ 0.3 0.1% 182 8.1$ 1.9$ 1.0 0.2% 12 0.5$ 0.1$ 0.1 0.0%106 Plan It Solar 254 10.1$ 1.6$ 1.3 0.1% 24 1.1$ 0.1$ 0.2 0.0% 222 8.6$ 1.4$ 1.1 0.2% 8 0.4$ 0.1$ 0.0 0.0%107 Allstate Solar Integration Inc 15 6.3$ 2.5$ 1.3 0.1% 3 0.1$ 0.0$ 0.0 0.0% 10 0.4$ 0.1$ 0.0 0.0% 2 5.8$ 2.4$ 1.2 0.4%

108 Electricare Inc 235 11.3$ 2.6$ 1.2 0.1% 6 0.3$ 0.0$ 0.0 0.0% 168 7.9$ 1.9$ 0.9 0.2% 61 3.0$ 0.7$ 0.3 0.1%109 NB Baker Electric Inc 199 9.2$ 1.4$ 1.2 0.1% 26 1.4$ 0.1$ 0.2 0.0% 169 7.6$ 1.2$ 1.0 0.2% 4 0.3$ 0.0$ 0.0 0.0%110 Collins Electrical Company Inc 3 8.3$ 2.6$ 1.2 0.1% 2 8.2$ 2.6$ 1.2 0.2% 1 0.1$ 0.0$ 0.0 0.0% - -$ -$ - 0.0%

111 Galkos Construction Inc 537 15.8$ 1.5$ 1.2 0.1% 290 9.0$ 0.8$ 0.7 0.1% 233 6.4$ 0.7$ 0.5 0.1% 14 0.4$ 0.0$ 0.0 0.0%112 Diamond Ridge Roofing Inc 204 10.3$ 1.4$ 1.2 0.1% 14 0.6$ 0.0$ 0.1 0.0% 184 9.3$ 1.3$ 1.1 0.2% 6 0.4$ 0.0$ 0.0 0.0%113 Emard's EHT dba Solar Universe Network 195 8.8$ 1.4$ 1.2 0.1% 19 0.8$ 0.1$ 0.1 0.0% 168 7.7$ 1.2$ 1.0 0.2% 8 0.3$ 0.1$ 0.0 0.0%

114 Solarecity Electric 245 10.7$ 1.7$ 1.2 0.1% 14 0.5$ 0.0$ 0.1 0.0% 219 8.9$ 1.5$ 1.0 0.2% 12 1.3$ 0.1$ 0.1 0.0%115 Natural Energy 297 10.7$ 1.6$ 1.2 0.1% 46 1.4$ 0.2$ 0.2 0.0% 232 8.4$ 1.3$ 0.9 0.2% 19 0.8$ 0.1$ 0.1 0.0%116 Power Independence Electric 160 9.3$ 2.1$ 1.2 0.1% 34 3.0$ 0.6$ 0.4 0.1% 103 5.7$ 1.4$ 0.6 0.2% 23 0.6$ 0.2$ 0.1 0.0%

117 western solar 26 8.1$ 1.7$ 1.1 0.1% 11 3.9$ 0.7$ 0.5 0.1% 13 3.2$ 0.8$ 0.4 0.1% 2 1.1$ 0.3$ 0.2 0.1%118 IEC-Corportation 8 7.2$ 2.1$ 1.1 0.1% 8 7.2$ 2.1$ 1.1 0.2% - -$ -$ - 0.0% - -$ -$ - 0.0%119 Spears Construction Inc 3 6.1$ 2.1$ 1.1 0.1% 3 6.1$ 2.1$ 1.1 0.2% - -$ -$ - 0.0% - -$ -$ - 0.0%120 Solar Service Center 180 9.6$ 1.7$ 1.1 0.1% 75 3.7$ 0.6$ 0.4 0.1% 91 5.2$ 0.9$ 0.6 0.1% 14 0.8$ 0.1$ 0.1 0.0%

121 Solarponics 174 8.7$ 1.3$ 1.1 0.1% 26 1.2$ 0.1$ 0.2 0.0% 138 6.9$ 1.1$ 0.9 0.2% 10 0.6$ 0.1$ 0.1 0.0%122 Alternative Energy Systems Inc 178 8.7$ 1.4$ 1.1 0.1% 37 1.6$ 0.1$ 0.2 0.0% 134 6.9$ 1.2$ 0.8 0.2% 7 0.2$ 0.1$ 0.0 0.0%123 M Kahn Solar Inc 30 10.2$ 2.5$ 1.1 0.1% 7 0.7$ 0.1$ 0.1 0.0% 19 3.7$ 0.9$ 0.3 0.1% 4 5.8$ 1.5$ 0.7 0.2%

124 Advanced Alternative Energy Solut ions 144 8.4$ 2.0$ 1.1 0.1% 24 1.6$ 0.5$ 0.3 0.1% 91 5.0$ 0.9$ 0.5 0.1% 29 1.7$ 0.6$ 0.3 0.1%125 West Coast Solar Energy 130 7.2$ 0.9$ 1.1 0.1% 34 2.5$ 0.2$ 0.4 0.1% 86 4.3$ 0.6$ 0.6 0.1% 10 0.4$ 0.1$ 0.1 0.0%126 Morrow-Meadows Corporation 6 6.7$ 0.8$ 1.1 0.1% 3 1.6$ 0.3$ 0.3 0.1% 2 0.4$ 0.1$ 0.1 0.0% 1 4.7$ 0.3$ 0.7 0.3%

127 AMECO 179 9.2$ 2.1$ 1.1 0.1% 11 0.5$ 0.1$ 0.1 0.0% 156 7.3$ 1.6$ 0.9 0.2% 12 1.5$ 0.3$ 0.2 0.1%128 Pacific Rim Construction 175 10.0$ 1.4$ 1.1 0.1% 65 2.6$ 0.1$ 0.3 0.1% 102 5.9$ 1.0$ 0.6 0.2% 8 1.5$ 0.3$ 0.2 0.1%129 Advanc e: Solar, Hydro, Wind Power Co. 26 5.5$ 1.9$ 1.1 0.1% 8 0.5$ 0.0$ 0.1 0.0% 10 4.8$ 1.7$ 0.9 0.2% 8 0.3$ 0.2$ 0.1 0.0%

130 Fidelity Roof Co 16 8.6$ 1.7$ 1.1 0.1% 1 0.1$ 0.0$ 0.0 0.0% 13 0.4$ 0.1$ 0.0 0.0% 2 8.0$ 1.6$ 1.0 0.4%131 K2 Solar Inc 14 8.3$ 1.6$ 1.1 0.1% 5 6.6$ 1.3$ 0.9 0.2% 7 1.4$ 0.2$ 0.2 0.0% 2 0.3$ 0.0$ 0.0 0.0%132 Heritage Solar, Inc 149 9.4$ 1.8$ 1.1 0.1% 14 0.9$ 0.1$ 0.1 0.0% 117 6.5$ 1.3$ 0.7 0.2% 18 2.1$ 0.4$ 0.2 0.1%

133 Marc Suacci 11 6.0$ 1.9$ 1.1 0.1% 2 0.1$ 0.0$ 0.0 0.0% 6 5.6$ 1.9$ 1.0 0.2% 3 0.2$ 0.0$ 0.0 0.0%134 Solar Development Inc 5 8.4$ 1.3$ 1.1 0.1% 4 7.0$ 1.0$ 0.9 0.2% 1 1.3$ 0.3$ 0.1 0.0% - -$ -$ - 0.0%135 California Solar Systems Inc 235 9.5$ 1.4$ 1.0 0.1% 38 1.4$ 0.1$ 0.2 0.0% 176 7.0$ 1.1$ 0.8 0.2% 21 1.1$ 0.2$ 0.1 0.0%

136 System 3 Inc 3 6.3$ 2.3$ 1.0 0.1% 1 6.0$ 2.3$ 1.0 0.2% 2 0.2$ 0.1$ 0.0 0.0% - -$ -$ - 0.0%137 Vanir Construction Management Inc 5 -$ 1.8$ 1.0 0.1% 5 -$ 1.8$ 1.0 0.2% - -$ -$ - 0.0% - -$ -$ - 0.0%

138 Future Energy Corporation 305 11.2$ 1.5$ 1.0 0.1% 20 0.8$ 0.1$ 0.1 0.0% 278 10.2$ 1.4$ 0.9 0.2% 7 0.2$ 0.0$ 0.0 0.0%139 Perpetual Power LLC 1 5.3$ 0.8$ 1.0 0.1% - -$ -$ - 0.0% - -$ -$ - 0.0% 1 5.3$ 0.8$ 1.0 0.4%

140 AEE Solar 3 6.0$ 2.3$ 1.0 0.1% 1 5.9$ 2.3$ 1.0 0.2% 1 0.0$ 0.0$ 0.0 0.0% 1 0.1$ 0.0$ 0.0 0.0%141 Ambassador Energy Inc 144 7.4$ 1.3$ 1.0 0.1% 29 1.6$ 0.2$ 0.2 0.0% 102 5.2$ 1.0$ 0.6 0.1% 13 0.6$ 0.2$ 0.1 0.0%142 Arthur Grover Widner 1 3.9$ 1.9$ 1.0 0.1% 1 3.9$ 1.9$ 1.0 0.2% - -$ -$ - 0.0% - -$ -$ - 0.0%

143 Jet Propulsion Laboratory 1 10.0$ 2.1$ 1.0 0.1% - -$ -$ - 0.0% - -$ -$ - 0.0% 1 10.0$ 2.1$ 1.0 0.4%144 Pacific Power Renewables Inc 1 5.0$ 1.2$ 1.0 0.1% 1 5.0$ 1.2$ 1.0 0.2% - -$ -$ - 0.0% - -$ -$ - 0.0%145 West Hills Construction 22 9.7$ 2.0$ 1.0 0.1% 1 5.5$ 1.0$ 0.4 0.1% 16 3.9$ 1.0$ 0.5 0.1% 5 0.3$ 0.1$ 0.0 0.0%

146 Vidortx Inc DBA Aircon Energy 8 9.0$ 2.2$ 1.0 0.1% 1 6.5$ 1.5$ 0.7 0.1% - -$ -$ - 0.0% 7 2.6$ 0.8$ 0.3 0.1%147 Helix Electric Inc 1 5.0$ 1.9$ 1.0 0.1% 1 5.0$ 1.9$ 1.0 0.2% - -$ -$ - 0.0% - -$ -$ - 0.0%148 MC Construction 3 8.9$ 2.4$ 1.0 0.1% - -$ -$ - 0.0% 2 7.7$ 2.1$ 0.8 0.2% 1 1.3$ 0.3$ 0.1 0.0%

149 REP Energy Inc 5 6.8$ 0.6$ 1.0 0.1% 5 6.8$ 0.6$ 1.0 0.2% - -$ -$ - 0.0% - -$ -$ - 0.0%150 Renewable Power Solutions Inc 156 8.1$ 1.1$ 0.9 0.1% 14 2.1$ 0.1$ 0.3 0.1% 136 5.6$ 1.0$ 0.6 0.1% 6 0.4$ 0.1$ 0.0 0.0%

Total Third 50 5,548 423.0$ 87.1$ 55.9 4.5% 1,119 142.7$ 31.8$ 21.6 4.2% 4,031 212.9$ 40.1$ 25.1 5.9% 398 67.4$ 15.2$ 9.2 3.2%

Program Total 63,446 8,474.9$ 2,058.2$ 1,228.3 15,132 3,145.8$ 663.6$ 514.2 43,095 3,560.1$ 857.8$ 429.6 5,219 1,769.1$ 536.8$ 284.6

% of Program Total 8.7% 5.0% 4.2% 4.5% 7.4% 4.5% 4.8% 4.2% 9.4% 6.0% 4.7% 5.9% 7.6% 3.8% 2.8% 3.2%

Ranked

All Proj

CEC


Results by Contractor thru March 2011 Third 50


55/81

55

All MW DC In Process and CompletePV Manufacturers thru March 2011

There have been changes in leadership during the program based mostly on the decision to supply the marketand price. Today MW DC In Process is led by Chinese manufacturers who are surging to the front. As seen inComplete, some of the former leaders are falling behind. 592 MW DC are in process, 493 MW DC are complete.

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100

110

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In Process

Complete


56/81

56

All Completed MW DC by Quarterby PV Manufacturer Q1 2007 thru Q1 2011


All Others - 0.0 0.2 1.0 3.4 8.5 6.4 3.5 7.6 9.0 5.8 7.0 5.7 5.8 5.1 8.4 3.4

Siliken - - - - - - - - - - 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.5 1.0 0.6

Schott Solar - - 0.0 0.0 1.2 1.8 0.0 0.7 2.2 0.7 1.3 0.2 0.2 0.7 0.9 0.3 0.7

Mitsubishi - 0.0 0.3 0.6 1.7 1.7 2.5 2.3 6.7 6.1 0.9 0.3 2.2 2.6 1.5 0.8 0.8

Sanyo Electric - 0.0 0.4 0.9 0.9 1.3 1.6 2.2 3.9 3.0 1.7 1.7 2.4 1.8 1.8 0.9 0.8

REC Solar - - - - - - - 0.0 0.3 1.3 0.3 0.9 1.2 1.5 2.0 1.4 1.0ET Solar - - - - - - - - - 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.3 1.6 1.1

BP Solar - 0.1 0.3 1.0 1.6 3.9 2.2 2.3 2.8 2.7 0.9 2.2 1.6 1.2 1.7 5.7 1.6

SolarWorld - 0.0 0.2 0.6 0.7 0.6 0.9 0.6 2.5 8.0 1.4 1.8 0.3 0.6 4.0 2.2 1.6

Schuco - - 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.8 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.4 1.4 0.8 1.1 1.6

Yingli - - - - - 0.7 0.4 0.0 0.3 0.1 0.5 0.1 1.0 1.3 0.7 2.9 2.1

Canadian Solar - - - - - - - - 0.4 0.0 0.3 0.5 0.8 1.6 1.5 3.0 3.0

Kyocera Solar - 0.3 0.2 0.7 1.6 2.9 2.3 3.7 2.8 2.3 3.3 2.4 2.7 1.6 2.2 6.3 3.6

Sharp 0.0 0.1 1.1 1.7 2.4 2.7 2.4 5.7 5.7 10.4 3.7 3.2 4.7 5.6 7.8 7.2 3.8

SunPower - 0.1 1.0 2.8 2.8 5.0 6.9 9.0 7.5 13.9 11.7 9.3 9.5 7.0 5.0 5.1 5.2

Suntech - 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.2 0.2 3.0 0.5 3.9 1.2 3.7 3.4 5.2 4.0 7.4

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60

MWDC

Ranked by Q1 11 resultsLargest MW starts at the bottom


57/81

57

All Completed MW DC and % Share byPV Manufacturer January 2007 thru March 2011

493 MW DC Completed

SunPower101.8, 21%

Sharp68.2, 14%

Evergreen42.3, 9%

Kyocera38.8, 8%

Suntech33.3, 7%

BP Solar31.7, 6%Mitsubishi 31.1, 6%

SolarWorld 26.1, 5%

Sanyo 25.6, 5%

Canadian Solar 11.2, 2%

Schott Solar 10.8, 2%

Yingli 10.1, 2%

REC Solar 9.9, 2%

Andalay 7.7, 2%

Schuco 7.0, 1%

First Solar 6.2, 1%

Conergy 4.3, 1%

ET Solar 3.7, 1%

Siliken 2.8 1%Trina 2.7, 1%

All Others 17.5, 4%


58/81

Suntech92.5, 16%

Yingli83.4, 14%

SunPower80.5, 14%

Sharp66.6, 11%Trina

50.1, 9%

SolarWorld 40.8, 7%

Kyocera Solar 29.2, 5%

REC Solar 16.2, 3%

Canadian Solar 14.7, 2%

Mitsubishi 7.8, 1%

Schott Solar 7.7, 1%

BP Solar 7.2, 1%

Evergreen 7.2, 1%Schuco 7.1, 1%

First Solar 6.9, 1%

DelSolar 6.6, 1%

Solarfun 6.1, 1%

Chint Solar 6.0, 1%

ET Solar 5.6, 1%

Siliken 5.6, 1%

All Others 41.3, 7%

58

All MW DC Now In Process and % Share byPV Manufacturer thru March 2011

592 MW DC In Process

Note: At the end of March 2011the PV manufacturers had theseMW assigned to projects thatwere In Process. In the past PVmodules have been changedduring the project based onavailability and other factors.Projects may also be cancelled.This snapshot represents only apotential outcome.


59/81

59

All MW DC In Process and CompleteInverter Manufacturers thru March 2011

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

MWDC

In Process

Complete


60/81


All Others - 0.03 0.09 0.09 0.19 0.12 0.08 0.12 0.20 0.11 0.26 0.39 0.58 0.39 0.39 0.33 0.25

Solectria - - - - 0.09 0.02 0.19 0.05 2.66 1.40 0.34 0.21 0.61 0.52 0.51 0.28 0.34

Power-One - - - 0.00 - 0.03 0.04 0.01 0.03 0.03 0.01 0.03 0.03 0.07 0.06 0.26 0.36Kaco - - 0.00 0.02 0.02 0.07 0.07 0.07 0.16 0.14 0.07 0.07 0.11 0.11 0.40 0.72 0.39

Xantrex - 0.37 0.77 1.83 1.93 4.37 8.64 11.19 13.52 20.14 10.96 5.39 2.57 2.38 1.02 4.67 0.87

SatCon 0.04 - 0.27 1.25 5.64 13.87 6.68 7.02 8.76 20.93 5.82 4.89 4.32 3.28 6.84 9.31 3.09

PV Powered - 0.02 0.05 0.28 0.38 0.72 0.41 0.84 0.84 1.11 1.22 1.33 2.73 4.39 2.16 4.35 3.34

SunPower - 0.11 0.81 1.97 2.12 2.60 2.89 2.92 5.00 3.93 3.98 4.75 5.25 3.42 4.41 4.50 3.47

Enphase - - - - - 0.01 0.02 0.14 0.24 0.35 0.34 0.62 1.28 1.67 3.00 3.33 3.81

Fronius - 0.10 0.70 1.96 2.05 2.37 2.31 2.38 2.56 2.13 2.87 3.43 3.91 3.60 4.22 3.48 4.38

Advanced Energy - - - - - 0.31 - - 1.05 0.00 1.16 2.32 1.14 4.18 4.03 6.03 6.18

SMA - 0.10 1.02 3.23 4.19 5.34 4.66 5.69 8.78 6.98 7.79 7.77 11.95 12.59 13.24 14.01 9.87

0

10

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50

60

MWDC

60

All Completed MW DC by Quarterby Inverter Manufacturer Q1 2007 thru Q1 2011

Ranked by Q1 11 resultsLargest MW starts at the bottom


61/81

61

All Completed MW DC and % Share by InverterManufacturer January 2007 thru March 2011

484 MW DC Completed

* SunPower does notmake inverters butprivate labels themfrom variousmanufacturers

SMA117.2, 24%

SatCon102.0, 21%

Xantrex90.6, 19%

SunPower52.1, 11%

Fronius

42.5, 9%

Advanced Energy26.4, 5%

PV Powered 24.2 , 5%

Enphase 14.8, 3%

Solectria 7.2, 1%

Kaco 2.4, 1%

Power-One 1.0, 0%

All Others 3.6, 1%


62/81

SatCon Technology294.7, 51%

Advanced Energy **73.1, 13%

SMA58.6, 10%

PV Powered46.4, 8%

Fronius 25.9, 4%

SunPower 20.1, 4%

Solectria 18.8, 3%

Enphase 17.8, 3%

Xantrex 14.0, 2%

Power-One 5.4, 1%Kaco 2.8, 1%

Siemens 1.1, 0%

All Others 1.8, 0%

62

All MW DC Now In Process and % Share byInverter Manufacturer thru March 2011

581 MW DC In Process

* SunPower does not makeinverters but private labelsthem from variousmanufacturers

** Advanced Energy acquired

PV Powered

Note: At the end of March 2011the Inverter manufacturers hadthese MW assigned to projectsthat were In Process. In the pastinverters have been changedduring the project based onavailability and other factors.Projects may also be cancelled.This snapshot represents only apotential outcome.


63/81

63

Ownership in CEC MW of completed Non-Residentialand Residential projects thru March 2011

Not ThirdParty

Owned109.147%

Third PartyOwned125.453%

Non-Residential

234.5 CEC MW Total

Not ThirdParty

Owned

162.983%

Third PartyOwned

32.217%

Residential

195.1 CEC MW Total


64/81

Cumulative Ownership of confirmed Residential projectsin CEC MW January 2007 thru March 2011

64

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

0

50

100

150

200

250

Jun-07

Sep-07

Dec-07

Mar-08

Jun-08

Sep-08

Dec-08

Mar-09

Jun-09

Sep-09

Dec-09

Mar-10

Jun-10

Sep-10

Dec-10

Mar-11

%TPO

CECMW

Not ThirdParty Owned

Third PartyOwned

% ThirdParty Owned


65/81

Ownership of confirmed Residential projectsin CEC MW January 2007 thru March 2011

65

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

0

4

8

12

16

20

24


%TPO

CECMW

Third Party Owned Not Third Party Owned % Third Party Owned


66/81

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

0

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

5,000


%TPO

# ofProj


Ownership of confirmed Residential projectsNumber of projects January 2007 thru March 2011

66


67/81

Cumulative Ownership of confirmed Non-Residentialprojects in CEC MW January 2007 thru March 2011

67

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

Jun-07

Sep-07

Dec-07

Mar-08

Jun-08

Sep-08

Dec-08

Mar-09

Jun-09

Sep-09

Dec-09

Mar-10

Jun-10

Sep-10

Dec-10

Mar-11

%TPO

CECMW

Not Third

Party Owned

Third Party

Owned

% ThirdParty Owned


68/81

Ownership of confirmed Non-Residential systemsin CEC MW January 2007 thru March 2011

68

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

Q2 '07 Q3 '07 Q4 '07 Q1 '08 Q2 '08 Q3 '08 Q4 '08 Q1 '09 Q2 '09 Q3 '09 Q4 '09 Q1 '10 Q2 '10 Q3 '10 Q4 '10 Q1 '11

%TPO

CECMW



69/81

Ownership of confirmed Non-Residential projectsNumber of Projects January 2007 thru March 2011

69

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

Q2 '07 Q3 '07 Q4 '07 Q1 '08 Q2 '08 Q3 '08 Q4 '08 Q1 '09 Q2 '09 Q3 '09 Q4 '09 Q1 '10 Q2 '10 Q3 '10 Q4 '10 Q1 '11

%TPO

# ofProj



70/81

Of the projects that are In Process how many MW willlikely be completed?

70

Of the 514 MW In Process at the end of March 2011 we project about 300 MW will ultimately be completed. This meansthat at the end of March 2011 the program has enough activity to complete about 730 MW or 42% of program objective.

430

514

285

0

200

400

600

800

1,000

1,200

1,400

Dec-06

Mar-07

Jun-07

Sep-07

Dec-07

Mar-08

Jun-08

Sep-08

Dec-08

Mar-09

Jun-09

Sep-09

Dec-09

Mar-10

Jun-10

Sep-10

Dec-10

Mar-11

Jun-11

Sep-11

Dec-11

Mar-12

Jun-12

Sep-12

Dec-12

CECMW


Year end 2016 Objective: Complete 1,750MW

Future Years

498

730

Forecast

300MWCompleteof 514MWIn Process

1,228


71/81

0

200

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800

1,000

1,200

1,400

1,600

1,800

$0

$200

$400

$600

$800

$1,000

$1,200

$1,400

$1,600

$1,800

CECMW

Inc$ Mil

71

The CSIs cumulative $ Incentive andMW budget plan

$ incentivebudget plan

The program has a budget of about $1,748 million to complete 1,750 MW. The plan is not time based, demand causesthe change in Step. As the Steps increase the program is designed to provide less incentive for each MW.

Step 2 Step 3 Step 4 Step 5 Step 6 Step 7 Step 8 Step 9 Step 10

$ Million Incentiveeach Step

$208 $262 $294 $295 $249 $166 $104 $85 $83

MW each Step 70 100 130 160 190 215 250 285 350

MWbudget

plan


72/81

0

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800

1,000

1,200

1,400

1,600

1,800

$0

$200

$400

$600

$800

$1,000

$1,200

$1,400

$1,600

$1,800

CECMW

Inc$ Mil

72

Cumulative Incentive and MW budget planwith actual MW thru March 2011




$208 $262 $294 $295 $249 $166 $104 $85 $83

MW each Step 70 100 130 160 190 215 250 285 350

430 MW Completedthru March 11

At the end of March 2011 the program had completed 430 CEC MW.

MWbudget

plan


73/81

0

200

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1,000

1,200

1,400

1,600

1,800

$0

$200

$400

$600

$800

$1,000

$1,200

$1,400

$1,600

$1,800

CECMW

Inc$ Mil

73

Cumulative Incentive and MW budget plan with$ Incentive budget and actual MW results thru March 11



The program planned to spend about $1,005 million to complete 430 MW. A one time incentive payment ismade to small system owners. Money is reserved for performance based incentive (PBI) systems of any sizeand is paid to the system owner over 5 years.



$208 $262 $294 $295 $249 $166 $104 $85 $83

MW each Step 70 100 130 160 190 215 250 285 350

MWbudget

plan

$1,005m budget tocomplete 430 MW


74/81

0

200

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800

1,000

1,200

1,400

1,600

1,800

$0

$200

$400

$600

$800

$1,000

$1,200

$1,400

$1,600

$1,800

CECMW

Inc$ Mil

74

Cumulative Incentive and MW budget plan withactual $ incentive and MW results thru March 2011


In fact the program did not spend $1,005, but spent, or reserved for PBI payments $858 million. This is $147 million lessthan budget, and a positive variance. This situation was predictable because early on a policy was put in place thatallowed cancelled MW to come back into the program. When the cancelled MW are re-reserved they receive the Stepincentive available then, which is frequently much lower.


$1,005m budget tocomplete 430 MW

$858m actuallyspent



$208 $262 $294 $295 $249 $166 $104 $85 $83

MW each Step 70 100 130 160 190 215 250 285 350

MWbudget

plan


75/81

75

Incentive and MW forecast including projectsIn Process at the end of March 2011

0

200

400

600

800

1,000

1,200

1,400

1,600

1,800

$0

$200

$400

$600

$800

$1,000

$1,200

$1,400

$1,600

$1,800

CECMW

Inc$ Mil


730 MW

SunCentric estimate ofcompletions includingMW In Process

$1,250

$1,370 million budgetto complete 730 MW

430 MW

$858m

$1,005m

Chart 70 shows that including projects in process at the end of March 2011, 730 MW will be completed sometime in thefuture. The program has a budget of about $1,370 million to complete 730 MW. We estimate that only $1,250 million willbe needed to complete 730 MW. The program will be under budget by $120 million.



$208 $262 $294 $295 $249 $166 $104 $85 $83

MW each Step 70 100 130 160 190 215 250 285 350

MWbudget

plan


76/81

76

Incentive and MW forecast at the end of 2016

0

200

400

600

800

1,000

1,200

1,400

1,600

1,800

$0

$200

$400

$600

$800

$1,000

$1,200

$1,400

$1,600

$1,800

CECMW

Inc$ Mil


730 MW

$1,250

$1,370mMW

budget

plan

430 MW

$858m

$1,005m

We project that 1,100 MW will be completed at year end 2016 the sunset date for the program. The program has abudget of about $1,573 million to complete 1,100 MW. We estimate that only $1,460 million will be needed to complete1,100 MW. The program will be under budget by $113 million.



$208 $262 $294 $295 $249 $166 $104 $85 $83

MW each Step 70 100 130 160 190 215 250 285 350

1,100 MW

SunCentric estimateof completions atYE 2016

$1,573 million budgetto complete 1,100 MW

$1,460


77/81

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

Dec-06

Mar-07

Jun-07

Sep-07

Dec-07

Mar-08

Jun-08

Sep-08

Dec-08

Mar-09

Jun-09

Sep-09

Dec-09

Mar-10

Jun-10

Sep-10

Dec-10

Mar-11

Jun-11

Sep-11

Dec-11

CECMW

Total PG&E SCE CCSE

77

Forecast

159MW

in 2011

YE 200713MW

YE 2009252MW

YE 2010

396MW

YE 2011

555MW

Total89MW

in 2008

Total150MWin 2009

YE 2008102MW

179MW

307MW

69MW

Total144MWin 2010

We forecast 159 CEC MW will be completed in 2011. This will bring the total completed to 555 CEC MW, or about 32% ofobjective at the half way point of the program. PG&E will be at 40%, SCE will be at 22% and CCSE will be at 38% of theirpart of the CSIs program objective.

Year end 2011 forecast of completions by Utility

YE 2016 PG&E objective: Complete 764.8MW

YE 2016 SCE objective: Complete 805.0MW

YE 2016 CCSE objective: Complete 180.3MW


78/81

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

Dec-06

Mar-07

Jun-07

Sep-07

Dec-07

Mar-08

Jun-08

Sep-08

Dec-08

Mar-09

Jun-09

Sep-09

Dec-09

Mar-10

Jun-10

Sep-10

Dec-10

Mar-11

Jun-11

Sep-11

Dec-11

CECMW

Total Residential Non-Residential78

Year end 2011 forecast of completions for theResidential and Non-Residential programs

We forecast 159 CEC MW will be completed in 2011. This will bring the program total to 555 CEC MW or about 32% ofobjective at the half way point of the program. The Residential program will reach 46% and the Non-Residential programwill reach 24% of the CSIs program objective.

YE 200713MW

YE 2009252MW

YE 2010

396MW

YE 2011

555MW

Total89MW

in 2008

Total150MWin 2009

YE 2008102MW

287MW

268MW

Total144MWin 2010

YE 2016 Residential Objective: Complete 578MWYE 2016 Non-Residential Objective: Complete 1,173MW Forecast

159MW

in 2011


79/81

730

498

1,250

0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

3,000

3,500

Estimate of results based on current activity Estimate of activity required to reach programobjective

CECMW

Complete Cancelled

How many more MW of reservation requests will beneeded to reach the 1,750 MW completion requirement?

79

Our current projection is that about 58% of all projects requesting a reservation will be completed. This means that 42%will drop out. At these ratios the program needs about 1,771 MW more new reservation requests, 3,000 MW in total, toachieve 1,750 MW of completions by the end of 2016. Because projects take 6 to 12 months to complete these reservationswill need to be issued not later than the middle of 2016.

1,228 MW ofReservation Requests

so far

3,000 MW ofReservations Requestsmay be needed in total

1,771 MW MoreReservation

Requests

1,750Complete


80/81

0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

3,000

3,500

Jan-07

Jan-08

Jan-09

Jan-10

Jan-11

Jan-12

Jan-13

Jan-14

Jan-15

Jan-16

Jan-17

CECMW 1,900MW

Reservation Requestsforecast

80

Forecast of Reservation Requests at the endof the CSI in 2016

As shown on Chart 79, the program will need a significant increase in Reservation Requests (demand) to allow any chanceof reaching the 1,750 MW objective. Our estimate is that in total 3,000 MW of reservation requests will be needed. Basedon declining incentives and other factors we see program demand softening and forecast the program will have about1,900 MW of reservation requests by mid year 2016.

3,000MWReservation Requests needed

based on completion rate

1,229MW ofReservation Requeststhru March 2011


81/81

0

200

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800

1,000

1,200

1,400

1,600

1,800

J J J J J J J J J J J J J J J J J

CECMW

Forecast of Completed CEC MW at the endof the CSI in 2016

Forecast

1,750MWComplete by

Mid 2022

YE 2016 ObjectiveComplete 1,750MW

430MW Completethru March 2011

The program is not completing MW at the rate needed to achieve the 1,750 MW objective at the end of 2016. Our forecastis that the program will complete 1,100 MW by the end of 2016. If the sunset date was lifted and the program was allowedto continue, we estimate that 1,750 might be completed by the middle of 2022.

Forecast1,100MWComplet

SunCentric CSI Report May 2011

Documents

Transcript of SunCentric CSI Report May 2011