Sun, wind, hydro, plants, geothermal replace oil, gas, coal and Uranium The Energy crisis and the...
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Sun, wind, hydro, plants, geothermal replace oil, gas, coal and Uranium The Energy crisis and the solution: Solarcentury Hans-Josef Fell Member of German Parliament
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Transcript of Sun, wind, hydro, plants, geothermal replace oil, gas, coal and Uranium The Energy crisis and the...
Sun, wind, hydro, plants, geothermal replace
oil, gas, coal and Uranium
The Energy crisis and the solution: Solarcentury
Hans-Josef FellMember of German Parliament
Oil production world summaryEnergy Watch Group
1935 1945 1955 1965 1975 1985 1995 2005 2015 20250
20
40
60
80
100
120
Oil
pro
du
ctio
n [
Mb
/d]
0
20
40
60
80
100
120WEO2006Middle EastAfricaLatin AmericaSouth AsiaEast AsiaChinaTransition EconomiesOECD PacificOECD EuropeOECD North America
WEO 2006
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
1990 2000 2010 2020 2030
WEO 1998 ($1996)
WEO 2002 ($2000)
WEO 2004 ($2002)
$/bbl
IEA Oil Price Prognosis
estimate for 2007
year
WEO 2005 ($2004)
WEO 2005 low invest ($2004)
WEO 2006 ($2005)
WEO 2007 ($2006)
Global coal production: Peak 2030
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
1950 2000 2050 2100
Worldwide possible coal production M toe
OECD North America
China
LA
OECD Pacific
OECD Europe
SouthAsia
East Asia
FSU
subbituminous
subbituminous
bituminous
bituminous
bituminous
bituminous
lignitelignite
lignite
lignite
lignitelignite
bituminous
Year
WEO 2006: Reference scenario
WEO 2006: Alternative policy scenario
Price for Hard Coal( MCIS Steam Coal Marker Price, first price calculated each month)
146,2
86,6
63,7
36,0
39,3
31,6
42,5
71,9
61,1
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 Mar. ´08
$/m
etr
ic t
on
www.hans-josef-fell.deSource : Verein Deutsche Kohleimporteure e.V.
www.hans-josef-fell.de
Oil, gas, coal are the main causes of damage to the climate
• Burning of oil, gas, coal emits worldwide ~80% of all greenhouse gases
• Real climate protection is only possible by ending the use of oil, gas, coal; this means using completly renewable energy and renewable chemistry.
• Energy saving is very helpful; but saving alone will not solve the climate problems
Climate problems can be solved only by two strategies:
1. Stop greenhouse gas emission(not only to reduce the emmission)
• promote cero emission technologies • completly canceling the use of fossile and
nuclear energies2. Taking out carbon from athmosphere • convert plants to humus soil• refforesting big areas
Climate-protection policies
Promoting renewable energy and chemistry:• Laws for feed-in tariffs • tax exemption for renewables• canceling subsidies for fossil and nuclear• research offensive for renewables• reduce the approval obstacles
No: quota or certificate systems both are unable to promote the renewables fast
Renewables (REN) have only benefits and nearly no burden
• REN bring New Jobs• REN decrease the energy costs• REN bring independence from rising oil,
gas, coal and uranium prices• REN bring energy security; mostly by
domestic energies• REN solve the problem of the pollution of
air, water, soil and climate change• REN solve the problem of oil wars
www.hans-josef-fell.de
Worldwide Potential Renewable Energy
Foto
: NA
SA
CSP potential vs. electricity demand
One percent ( ) of the Sahara's surface is enough to meet the world's entire electricity demand using CSP technologies.
Prof. Dr. Volker Quaschning [5]
www.hans-josef-fell.de
Solarthermal Powersystems
www.Hans-Josef-Fell.deQuelle : REN21
02468
1012141618
in %
www.hans-josef-fell.de
fore
cast
Share of Renewables in the GermanGross Electricity Consumption
Reference: BEE
Job engine renewable energies
www.hans-josef-fell.de
35 30 2353
235
500
0
100
200
300
400
500ha
rdco
al
nucl
ear
ligni
te
sola
r
rene
wab
les
Ern
euer
bare
Ene
rgie
n ge
sam
t
1000 Jobs in 2006:
Prognosis 2020
Wind power – Germany, UK and Australia
0
5000
10000
15000
20000
25000
´91 ´92 ´93 ´94 ´95 ´96 ´97 ´98 ´99 ´00 ´01 ´02 ´03 ´04 ´05 ´06 ´07
year
[MW
]
UK Deutschland Australien
www.hans-josef-fell.deSource :BSW,EPIA,ISES
costs for wind energy generation~7 cent/kWh in Germany~13 cent/kWh in the UK
Photovoltaics – Germany, Japan and Australia
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
3500
4000
1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007
year
[MW
p]
Japan Germany Australia
www.hans-josef-fell.deSources:BSW,EPIA,ISES
AU
www.hans-josef-fell.de
Tomorrow´s energy production
Sea current - Seaflow
Key components of a successfull feed-in law
• Privileged grid access• Attractive feed-in tariff for each RE technology
(must be high enough for cost-effective RE power production)
• Feed-in cost distributed via electricity price• No cap on total amount of generated RE power• Guaranteed feed-in period
- Also important: No obstacles through approval procedures in practice
www.hans-josef-fell.de
Avoided Costs due to Renewable Energies
www.Hans-Josef-Fell.desource : BEE
1,3
3,8
6,3
1,5
5,7
7,4
5,9
8,6
1,7
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
reduced CO2 emission(certificate price 15 €/
metric t)
reduced resource imports( heating oil, fuel, diesel,
natural gas, coal )
avoided external costs
bn
. €
2005
2006
2007
REA Assessment 2007
Green Group: key componentsof a successful RE Heating Law
• Obligatory RE percentage for new developments and existing buildings• Obligatory RE percentage continuously increasing• Inclusion of every RE type• Promotion of innovations through fund of compensation fees
- Not met by German Government Proposal- Almost met by EU Commission Directive Proposal
www.hans-josef-fell.de
Inter-Parliamentary Meeting on Renewable Energy andEnergy Efficiency at theEuropean Sustainable Energy Week 2008
Solar Cooling
with Parabol Channel Collectors
Mixed Cropping
• Oil plants can be plant together with other field crops• Particularly suitable oil plant: Gold of pleasure• The gained vegetable oil is more than suffice for the sowing• Mixed cropping leads into ecological cropping with significant higher total returns
Field with Barley, Gold of Plaesure, Pea
Sustainable Biomass
Good practice: Agroforestry in Southern Ruanda – food, fibre and fuel from integrated systems
Bioplastics
www.hans-josef-fell.deQuelle: european bioplastics
Solar Car (Twike) in front of Solar Park
SkySailsintelligent use of wind power
Many thanks for your Attention!
http://www.hans-josef-fell.de
