Summer seminar hurricanes - 27. july 2012
-
Upload
euintheus -
Category
Technology
-
view
161 -
download
1
Transcript of Summer seminar hurricanes - 27. july 2012
Dr. Astrid-Christina KochScience Counselor
EU Delegation to the United States in Washington
Summer Seminar – Hurricanes & Coastal Hazards
Summer SeminarSummer Seminar
• NOAA – JRC Implementing Arrangement
• Hurricane Hazards
• Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale
• Storm Surge
• National Hurricane Center’s Products
• Stay informed - Make a plan !
• NOAA – JRC Implementing Arrangement
• Hurricane Hazards
• Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale
• Storm Surge
• National Hurricane Center’s Products
• Stay informed - Make a plan !
Summer SeminarSummer Seminar
• NOAA – JRC Implementing Arrangement
• Hurricane Hazards
• Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale
• Storm Surge
• National Hurricane Center’s Products
• Stay informed - Make a plan !
• NOAA – JRC Implementing Arrangement
• Hurricane Hazards
• Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale
• Storm Surge
• National Hurricane Center’s Products
• Stay informed - Make a plan !
EU-U.S. Implementing Arrangement
• NOAA and the European Commission’s Joint Research Centre signed an implementation arrangement on scientific and other cooperative activities in the fields of climate, weather, oceans and coasts
• Umbrella agreement is the EU-US Science &Technology Agreement of 1998 signed by the Department of State and the European Commission
European CommisionJoint Research Centre (JRC) European CommisionJoint Research Centre (JRC)
National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA)
EU-U.S. Implementing Arrangement
Joint Research Centre (JRC) Dominique RistoriJoint Research Centre (JRC) Dominique Ristori
National Oceanic and Atmospheric Adminstration (NOAA) Jane Lubchenco
National Oceanic and Atmospheric Adminstration (NOAA) Jane Lubchenco
EU-U.S. Implementing Arrangement
Joint priorities:• Earth observation and data sharing• Climate prediction and monitoring• Regional/global modeling of coastal hazards• Space weather prediction and impact mitigation• Atmospheric and air quality monitoring• Environmental contaminants in marine environments• Fisheries research and management• Promoting coastal activities within multilateral fora
Joint Research Centre (JRC) Dominique RistoriJoint Research Centre (JRC) Dominique Ristori
National Oceanic and Atmospheric Adminstration (NOAA) Jane Lubchenco
National Oceanic and Atmospheric Adminstration (NOAA) Jane Lubchenco
Specific Nature of Collaboration
• Areas of collaboration– Timely exchange of relevant information on grants and proposals
– Regular review of both Sides’ program reviews and agency announcements
– Shared access to some laboratory facilities, equipment, and materials
– Exchange of personnel with administrative approval
– Shared scientific infrastructure and training of scientists and experts
– Support for joint research and content development for mutual value
• Coordination
– Five-year duration
– No financial obligations
– Intellectual property rights maintained
8
•Sentinel 1 – SAR imaging (radar data) (2011) – All weather, day/night applications, interferometry– successor of ENVISAT
•Sentinel 2 – Multispectral imaging (2012)– for land applications, e.g. urban, forest, agriculture– successor of SPOT, Landsat
•Sentinel 3 – Ocean & Land monitoring (2012)– Wide-swath ocean color, vegetation, sea/land surface
temperature, ocean altimetry•Sentinel 4 – Geostationary atmospheric (2017)
– Atmospheric composition monitoring, trans-boundary pollution
•Sentinel 5 – Low-orbit atmospheric (2019)– Atmospheric composition monitoring
GMES: Dedicated to Space Infrastructure
Summer SeminarSummer Seminar
• NOAA – JRC Implementing Arrangement
• Hurricane Hazards
• Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale
• Storm Surge
• National Hurricane Center’s Products
• Stay informed – Make a plan !
• NOAA – JRC Implementing Arrangement
• Hurricane Hazards
• Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale
• Storm Surge
• National Hurricane Center’s Products
• Stay informed – Make a plan !
Hurricane HazardsHurricane Hazards• Winds
• Storm surge
• Rainfall and inland fresh water flooding
• Tornadoes
• Winds
• Storm surge
• Rainfall and inland fresh water flooding
• Tornadoes
10DANNY (1997) SPAWNS TORNADO IN NORFOLK, VA
WIND RECORD
FROM GUSTAV (2008) IN
CUBA
Hurricane winds can cause tremendous
damage to structures and trees, as shown by
Charley’s damage in southwestern Florida
Hurricane winds can cause tremendous
damage to structures and trees, as shown by
Charley’s damage in southwestern Florida
11
Wind-blown Debris can Become Deadly Wind-blown Debris can Become Deadly Projectiles in a HurricaneProjectiles in a Hurricane
12
Storm SurgeStorm Surge
• The greatest potential killer in a tropical cyclone
• Abnormal rise in water generated by a storm, over and above the astronomical tide
• Temporary rise in sea level that effectively moves the coastline inland
• Caused primarily by force of wind blowing across water surface
• Contribution by low pressure within center of storm is minimal
• The greatest potential killer in a tropical cyclone
• Abnormal rise in water generated by a storm, over and above the astronomical tide
• Temporary rise in sea level that effectively moves the coastline inland
• Caused primarily by force of wind blowing across water surface
• Contribution by low pressure within center of storm is minimal 13
Hurricane Betsy, 1965, US 1 in the Florida Keys
Hurricane Betsy, 1965, US 1 in the Florida Keys
New Orleans levee overtopping in Katrina
New Orleans levee overtopping in Katrina
Picture by Don McCrosky, Entergy’s Michoud Power Plant Manager
IkeIke’’s Damages Damage
14
Before
After
Bolivar Peninsula, TXImages courtesy USGS
Factors Determining Storm Surge Height at a Given Location
Factors Determining Storm Surge Height at a Given Location
• Where the circulation center crosses the coast
• Storm direction of motion relative to coastline
• Strength of the winds (storm intensity)
• Radius of maximum winds
• Overall size of storm (outer wind radii)
• Slope of the continental shelf
• Shape of the coastline and other coastal features (examples: barrier islands, bays, rivers, levees)
• Where the circulation center crosses the coast
• Storm direction of motion relative to coastline
• Strength of the winds (storm intensity)
• Radius of maximum winds
• Overall size of storm (outer wind radii)
• Slope of the continental shelf
• Shape of the coastline and other coastal features (examples: barrier islands, bays, rivers, levees)
15
Isabel (2003) - Baltimore, MD
Ike (2008) - Bolivar Peninsula, TX
Fresh Water FloodingFresh Water Flooding
16
Hurricane Floyd (1999) Tarboro, NC (Reuters) NC DENR
• U. S. tropical cyclones have produced as much as 43 inches of rain in 24 hours.
• TC rainfall potential depends most on the speed of motion, with slow-moving systems producing the most rain
• Tropical depressions or storms can produce more rain than hurricanes!
• U. S. tropical cyclones have produced as much as 43 inches of rain in 24 hours.
• TC rainfall potential depends most on the speed of motion, with slow-moving systems producing the most rain
• Tropical depressions or storms can produce more rain than hurricanes!
17
Interstate 10, Looking West, Houston, Texas
18Interstate 10, Looking West, Houston, Texas
Tropical Storm Allison (2001) Houston Chronicle
Summer SeminarSummer Seminar
• NOAA – JRC Implementing Arrangement
• Hurricane Hazards
• Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale
• Storm Surge
• National Hurricane Center’s Products
• Stay informed - Make a plan !
• NOAA – JRC Implementing Arrangement
• Hurricane Hazards
• Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale
• Storm Surge
• National Hurricane Center’s Products
• Stay informed - Make a plan !
Robert Simpson MeteorologistRobert Simpson Meteorologist
Herbert Saffir Wind EngineerHerbert Saffir Wind Engineer
First publication of the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Scale - 1974:First publication of the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Scale - 1974:
Pressure - Winds - Surge - ImpactsPressure - Winds - Surge - Impacts
Revised Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Revised Saffir-Simpson Hurricane WindWind Scale Scale
Revised Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Revised Saffir-Simpson Hurricane WindWind Scale Scale
MAJOR HURRICANES
TropicalStorm
Category 1 Category 2 Category 3 Category 4 Category 5
39-73 mph(34-63 kt)
74-95mph(64-82 kt)
96-110 mph(83-95 kt)
111-130 mph(96-113 kt)
131-155 mph(114-135 kt)
> 155 mph(> 136 kt)
Alberto(2006)
Katrina(FL - 2005)
Frances(2004)
Katrina(LA - 2005)
Charley(2004)
Andrew(1992)
Allison(2001)
Claudette(2003)
Isabel(2003)
Wilma(FL- 2005)
Hugo(1989)
Camille(1969)
Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Scale Categorizes hurricanes by wind speed
Summer SeminarSummer Seminar
• NOAA – JRC Implementing Arrangement
• Hurricane Hazards
• Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale
• Storm Surge
• National Hurricane Center’s Products
• FEMA - Have a plan !
• NOAA – JRC Implementing Arrangement
• Hurricane Hazards
• Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale
• Storm Surge
• National Hurricane Center’s Products
• FEMA - Have a plan !
HURRICANE LANDFALL AND STORM SURGE
Wind
Side view of Cross Section “ABC”
Sand Duneson Barrier Island
A B C
0’
5O’
100’
150’
200’
Continental Shelf
Top view of Sea Surface and Land
BarrierIsland
Mainland
A B C
Eye
Current
MSL
STORM SURGE
Wind
STORM SURGE
The NWS Storm Surge Program
• Total Water Level Guidance: produce water level analyses, forecasts, and observations that include all contributions to surge
• Surge, tides, waves, fresh water, background anomaly
• Inundation Products: provide information about the water depth over the land (inundation) above ground level (AGL)
• Communicating Actionable Information: provide information that people can act on
• Transition from Deterministic approaches to ensemble/probabilistic approaches
First Generation Inundation Graphic
Actionable Information
• NWS has assembled teams to investigate a collaborative watch/warning CONOPs for storm surge and begin prototyping ideas for implementation– HFIP Social Science contract established to
investigate user requirements/preferences– Initial ideas tested informally during Irene– NHC/WFOs testing collaborative W/W concepts
Summer SeminarSummer Seminar
• NOAA – JRC Implementing Arrangement
• Hurricane Hazards• Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale• Storm Surge • The National Hurricane Center’s
Products• Stay informed - Have a plan !
• NOAA – JRC Implementing Arrangement
• Hurricane Hazards• Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale• Storm Surge • The National Hurricane Center’s
Products• Stay informed - Have a plan !
National Weather Service hurricane forecast and warning products are like a mosaic…
The National Hurricane Center paints the “big picture”...
and the local Weather Forecast Offices tell the local story
Graphical Tropical Weather Outlook mimics the text TWO issued at same time as text TWO
High > 50%Medium 30 – 50%Low < 30%
(20%)
(40%) (70%)
Public AdvisoryAtlantic
Plain-language text product originally intended for “rip and read”
Headline or lead statement Summary information Watches and warnings Center location, motion, forecast Wind speed and forecast Hazards: Wind / Storm surge /
Rainfall / Tornadoes / Waves and Rip Currents Recommended actions
500 am 1100 am 500 pm 1100 pm EDT
• Tropical Storm/Hurricane Watch: An announcement that hurricane conditions are possible within the specified area. Watches are issued 48 hours in advance of the anticipated onset of tropical-storm-force winds.
• Tropical Storm/Hurricane Warning: An announcement that hurricane conditions are expected within the specified area. Warnings are issued 36 hours in advance of the anticipated onset of tropical-storm-force winds.
36
New Public Advisory FormatNew Public Advisory Format
Section headers added
Storm information first
Changes to watches and warnings in the current advisory are highlighted
Bulleted summary of all watches and warnings in effect
Section headers
Discussion of forecast motion and intensity and other pertinent information
Storm hazards and impacts, shown by type
New Public Advisory FormatNew Public Advisory Format
Forecast / AdvisoryAtlantic
Only source of all the forecast data
Data is used in HURREVAC and other commercial tracking software Watches and warnings Center location, motion, minimum pressure and eye diameter Forecast positions, intensity and wind radii
500 am 1100 am 500 pm 1100 pm EDT
Surface Wind Field
Shows:
Wind field
Past track
Current watches/ warnings
Cumulative Wind History
Track Forecast Cone
3-day cone
5-day cone
NHC Forecast Cone
• Represents the probable track of the center of the tropical cyclone.
• Formed by connecting circles centered on each forecast point (at 12, 24, 36 h, etc.)
• Size of the circles determined so that, say, the actual storm position at 48 h will be within the 48-h circle 67% of the time.
Forecast Period
(h)
2003 Circle Radius (n
mi) (‘98 – ’02 errors)
2011 Circle Radius (n
mi) (‘06 – ’10 errors)
Percent Change
12 49 36 -27%
24 85 59 -31%
36 121 79 -35%
48 164 98 -40%
72 232 144 -38%
96 318 190 -40%
120 439 239 -46%
Cone Radii in the Era of 5-Day ForecastsCone Radii in the Era of 5-Day Forecasts
Forecast Period
(h)
2003 Circle Radius (n
mi) (‘98 – ’02 errors)
2011 Circle Radius (n
mi) (‘06 – ’10 errors)
Percent Reduction
12 43 33 -23%
24 75 59 -21%
36 108 79 -27%
48 131 98 -25%
72 190 134 -29%
96 230 187 -19%
120 252 230 -9%
Atlantic East Pacific
05:45 AM
Mel
bour
ne, F
L
to N
ew Y
ork
CityC
harle
tson
, SC
to
Chi
ncot
eagu
e, V
A
05:45 AM
05:45 AM
Cone versus Cone versus Size & ImpactSize & Impact
The Cone DOES NOT
denote area of
impact….
…as Ike’s hurricane
force winds demonstrat
e
Cone versus Cone versus Size & ImpactSize & Impact
DiscussionAtlantic
Free-form text product Provides the reasoning behind forecasts and warnings Discussion of relevant observations, model guidance, and the forecast uncertainties Includes table of track and intensity forecasts
500 am 1100 am 500 pm 1100 pm EDT
Surface Wind Speed Probabilities
Maximum 1-minute Wind Speed Probability
Storm Surge Probabilities
Chance of surge > 2 ft Chance of surge > 10 ft
available in 1-ft increments from 2 to 25 ft run when a Hurricane Watch or Warning is in effect
Stay tuned for more from Jamie…
Storm Surge Exceedance ProductStorm Surge Exceedance ProductAvailable in 10% increments from 10% to 90%http://www.weather.gov/mdl/psurge/active.php
All products can be found on All products can be found on the website ofthe website of
The National Hurricane The National Hurricane Center: Center:
http://www.hurricanes.govhttp://www.hurricanes.gov
Summer SeminarSummer Seminar
• NOAA – JRC Implementing Arrangement
• Hurricane Hazards• Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale• Storm Surge • The National Hurricane Center’s
Products• Stay informed - Have a plan !
• NOAA – JRC Implementing Arrangement
• Hurricane Hazards• Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale• Storm Surge • The National Hurricane Center’s
Products• Stay informed - Have a plan !
• Initial idea arose in early 1990’s
• Successfully proven during response to the 1995 Hurricane Season
• Became formal in 1996 by FEMA Director upon request of Governor of Florida and Director of National Hurricane Center
Hurricane Liaison TeamHLT Background
Former National Hurricane Center Director Max Mayfield discusses where to issue watches and warnings along the west coast of Florida for Hurricane Charley.
Andy Newman
HLTHLT
FEMA NRCC
NationalHurricaneCenter HLT
Hurricane Liaison TeamCommunication Flowchart
FEMA RRCC
State EOCs
Local EOCsLocal NWSFOs
Hurricane
Hotline
DHS NOC
• Facilitate video and audio conference briefings to Federal and State agencies
• Direct issues of importance to the NHC Hurricane Specialists
• Field and refer emergency management calls to appropriate state or other offices
Hurricane Liaison TeamResponsibilities
Former National Hurricane Center Director Bill Read briefing President Barack Obama on Hurricane Irene Saturday, August 27, 2011.
05:46 AM
Hurricane Preparedness WeekHurricane Preparedness WeekEnd of May each yearEnd of May each year
7 informative videos can be found at :http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/prepare/
Day 1: The Hurricane Season – Bill Read, NHCDay 2: Storm Surge – Robbie Berg, NHCDay 3: Wind Effects Including Tornadoes – Robert Molleda, WFO MiamiDay 4: Inland Flooding – Dan Gregoria, WFO MiamiDay 5: The “Full Team Effort” – Dan Brown, NHCDay 6: Get a Plan – Craig Fugate, FEMADay 7: What to Do: Before/During/After – Bill Read, NHC
FacebookFacebookhttp://www.facebook.com/US.NOAA.NationalHurricaneCenter.gov
Stay informed !Stay informed !
• NHC website – www.hurricanes.gov
• Local NWS Weather Forecast Office in Sterling close to the Dulles Airport:
http://www.erh.noaa.gov/er/lwx/
• NHC website – www.hurricanes.gov
• Local NWS Weather Forecast Office in Sterling close to the Dulles Airport:
http://www.erh.noaa.gov/er/lwx/
Make a plan !• U.S. Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) –
www.ready.gov
• For Embassies :OFM's Disaster Preparedness Seminar Presentations:
http://www.state.gov/ofm/emergency/c50508.htm
-OFM Disaster Response by Bruce Matthews, OFM's Managing Director -Emergency Preparedness and the Fire Code by the DC Fire and EMC Department -Disasters! How Prepared are YOU? by DepaRtment's Diplomatic Security Protective Liaison Division -Preparedness in the District of Columbia by DC Homeland Security and Emergency Management Agency -Providing Assistance to the United States after a Disaster by FEMA
61
This presentation was made from slides provided by James Franklin, Branch Chief of the Hurricane Specialist Unit of the National Hurricane Center.
62