10 May 2017Viceroy Palm JumeirahDubai

A partnership of

FT-IFC ENERGY INFRASTRUCTURE SERIESEnergy Transitions in the Middle East and Turkey

SUMMARY REPORT

AGENDA

12:30 Registration, Light Refreshments

13:30 Opening Remarks from the FT Chair

Ed Crooks, US Industry and Energy Editor, Financial Times

13:40 Welcome from IFC

Bernard Sheahan, Global Director of Infrastructure and Natural Resources, IFC

13:50 Scene-Setter: Global Energy Market Shifts and Consequences for the Region

Seb Henbest, Head of EMEA, Lead Author – New Energy Outlook, Bloomberg New Energy Finance

14:20 Panel 1: Renewable Energy – How Much of a Disruptive Force?

This region has significant renewable energy potential that has yet to be harnessed at scale. What is the potential size of this market, and how much market disruption should developers and investors anticipate as they seek to move large projects forward?

PANELLISTSBader Saeed Al Lamki, Executive Director for Clean Energy, MasdarSébastien Arbola, CEO, Middle East, South & Central Asia and Turkey, ENGIEArif Özozan, Executive Vice President and Chief Operating Officer, Gama HoldingPaddy Padmanathan, President and CEO, ACWA Power Andrea Panizzo, Head of Business Development, Europe and Middle East, Enel Green Power

MODERATORWiebke Schloemer, Regional Industry Head, Infrastructure, Eastern Europe, Central Asia, Middle East & North Africa, IFC

15:20 Networking Coffee Break

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15:50 Panel 2: Oil & Gas – Fixture of Growth or Sector in Flux?

While MENA continues to dominate the world energy industry, its oil and gas sector faces new and significant challenges, particularly from the development of shale gas and the expansion of fracking technology driving down costs. What should the industry expect and where are the opportunities?

PANELLISTSPatrick Allman-Ward, CEO, Dana Gas GroupMounir Bouaziz, Vice President, Commercial/New Business Development South America & Africa; Country Chair Dubai and Northern Emirates, Royal Dutch ShellJessica Brewer, Principal Analyst Middle East Upstream Oil and Gas, Wood Mackenzie

MODERATOREd Crooks, US Industry and Energy Editor, Financial Times

16:50 Leadership Spotlight: How to Navigate Energy Market Changes

HE Dr Ibrahim Babelli, Acting Deputy Minister for Sectoral Development, Ministry of Economy and Planning, Saudi ArabiaSaad Zaman, Head of Energy, The Abraaj Group

MODERATOREd Crooks, US Industry and Energy Editor, Financial Times

17:20 Concluding Remarks

Ed Crooks, US Industry and Energy Editor, Financial TimesBernard Sheahan, Global Director of Infrastructure and Natural Resources, IFC

17:30 Close of Forum, Drinks Reception

This event was held under Chatham House rule.

SUMMARY REPORT

The FT-IFC Forum on Energy Transitions in the Middle East and Turkey took place on 10 May 2017 in Dubai. The event was held under the Chatham House rule, and examined the potential impact of evolving renewable energy capabilities for the region and for the oil and gas sector. It featured insights from top industry, finance and government leaders.

Fast Pace of Change

Bernard Sheahan, IFC Global Director of Infrastructure and Natural Resources opened the discussion by highlighting the pace of change in the Middle East energy market. Despite the region’s central role in oil production and hydrocarbon reserves, it is investing around $3bn in renewables per annum.

One key reason behind this shift has been the decreasing cost of renewables technologies. In the wind sector, for example, the average capacity factor of turbines has reached around 35%, with some onshore wind farms in Texas

and Brazil running at 50% capacity. The size of turbines being commissioned for offshore projects is expected to rise to 15 megawatts by 2025, simultaneously increasing efficiency and reducing O&M costs. In addition to this, the cost of solar is currently decreasing by 28% for every doubling of installed capacity. In the EMEA region the cheapest PV technology now costs less than the cheapest coal available. As noted by one speaker, while investment in renewables technically dropped by 18% in 2016, about half of the decline is due to a reduction in the cost of the technology being deployed, so while investment was down, installations were up.

Competitive auctions are also driving competition and also setting the benchmark for expectations of future costs and equity return within the industry. Current cost curves may lead to a crossover point by around 2025-2030 in which it is cheaper to build a new solar plant than run an existing gas plant. Experts in attendance in Dubai

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also projected that renewable capacity should increase by 42% over the next 5 years. In addition, renewables such as wind and solar are already capable of deployment within 12 months.

Yet, while an ‘all-of-the-above’ strategy is realistic in areas where electricity demand outstrips power sector growth, regions such as Europe may face a scenario in which capital-heavy energy assets are undercut by new (or rapidly evolving) technologies, reductions in demand, energy usage tariffs, lower interest rates and even community-led Independent Connection Provider. Indeed, some argue that the rapid advances in technology may well lead to scenarios in which governments prefer to terminate Power Purchase Agreements and invest in newer renewables due to the cost benefits brought about by increasing efficiencies. In this environment, investors must successfully predict which technologies will achieve the highest return in a progressively

competitive and disruptive market. Moreover, they must achieve this whilst pushing governments for significant infrastructure investment in areas such as grid compatibility and capacity.

Targeting Renewables

In the Middle East, these trends have resulted in increased levels of investment and deployment in the renewables sector. A range of factors have influenced this shift, including a growing population size and higher energy consumption rates amid rising temperatures and humidity levels.

In countries such as Jordan, the lack of local hydrocarbon resources means that renewables investment is more of necessity than an alternative. Yet in nations with significant oil and gas reserves, it is still a sensible economic choice to adopt renewable technologies, participants heard. As noted by one official from the region, for a country that has a constrained gas supply,

SUMMARY REPORT

it makes perfect sense to allocate that gas for industrial rather than residential use. Renewable energy targets in the region would seem to support this, with the UAE aiming for 44% renewable penetration, and Saudi Arabia recently setting an initial target of 9500 megawatts from renewables. One participant said that countries such as Saudi Arabia could achieve a 75-80% solar capacity by 2050.

There is still uncertainty, however, as to what share of concentrated solar power (CSP) this will consist of in comparison to photovoltaic (PV) solar. While CSP with storage is currently less expensive, longer-term forecasts show that an integrated system of PV-CSP with storage may provide a good solution for the region. As stated by one speaker, increasing cost reductions in energy will allow governments to reduce the subsidies currently used to offset energy costs for consumers, and thus redistribute finances into alternative areas.

Although feed-in tariffs for renewables still exist in the region, many participants saw this as an irrelevant system which results in cost burdens for providers and consumers alike. They argued that tariffs should be dictated by market competition, bolstered by stable and transparent regulatory frameworks. Competitive tender auctions would both enhance competition and ensure that the necessary checks and balances were integrated within the procurement process. As stated by one participant, there could be a place for feed-in tariffs, for off-grid, to encourage rooftop solar, and get it going, to encourage house owners and house occupiers to invest. Off-grid solutions are also of clear benefit for parts of the region, making it possible to electrify rural villages outside of traditional grids. Moreover, as was recently introduced in Abu Dhabi, net metering systems could allow individuals to sell their off-grid electricity back to the grid.

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Oil & Gas Rollercoaster

Less certain is the future demand for oil and gas. Forum participants noted the recent rise in shale gas development has resulted in significant market volatility and driven down costs. Although some predicted that oil prices would stabilise over the next 5 years, others foresaw a ‘rollercoaster ride’ for the next 15-20 years.

As a result of these market dynamics, panellists said the oil industry has sought to significantly reduce its overheads by prioritising structural leanness, as well as more cyclical cost-cutting measures. This has led to around 20% cost reductions for the projects currently being sanctioned. In addition to this, many oil & gas companies are seeking to diversify their portfolios through investments and acquisitions in areas such as LNG, particularly for the transportation and marine sectors. The potential uptake of LNG in such sectors should be further bolstered by ongoing advances in containerised LNG manufacturing, which can convert pipeline

gas into LNG on small production sites, thus reducing distribution paths and enabling greater use of LNG for fuel.

As forecasted by one speaker, the primary energy demand in the Middle East, North Africa, and Turkey could increase from about 14 million tonnes equivalent to 25 million tonnes by 2035. Yet, although it possesses 40% of the world’s gas reserves, the Middle East remains a net importer of gas for two reasons. Firstly, 60-70% of its reserves are caught in gas caps on oil fields and so cannot be recovered until after the oil reserves have been extracted. Secondly, a significant amount of its gas is reinjected to enhance the oil recovery process. Despite this, the overcapacity and competitive pricing of LNG means that the region will likely continue to use gas as a bridging solution, according to participants who noted that any market growth in the region would require significant infrastructure investment, legislation and support by governments.

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Technological Drivers

Looking beyond the power sector, participants at the Dubai event noted that 25% of global carbon dioxide emissions come from the transportation sector, which is also relevant to energy choices. It was predicted that by 2020 there will be over 100 electric vehicle models on the market across the full spectrum of vehicles, and that 40% of new light car vehicles will be electric by 2040. The rapid growth in electric vehicles is forecasted to increase global electricity demand by 2700 terawatt hours in the same time period and could further drive down the cost of lithium-ion batteries, which prices for which have fallen by 73% since 2010.

Participants in Dubai also discussed carbon capture as part of the decision matrix in a world where climate change is a growing concern. Solutions for carbon capture and utilisation are starting to gain headway, such as the on-board carbon capture storage system featured by

Saudi Aramco at the COP-21 international climate talks. Such efforts highlight a new approach to managing climate change in which carbon dioxide is considered as a potential resource as an input to industry.

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Ed CrooksUS Industry and Energy EditorFinancial Times

Ed Crooks was appointed US industry and Energy Editor in August 2010. Prior to that, he was Energy Editor at the FT and was based in the head office in London. Mr Crooks joined the FT in 1999 as Economics Editor, and then went on to become UK News Editor. Previously, Mr Crooks was an Economics Correspondent for the BBC, reporting on both television and radio. He started at the BBC

as a researcher and producer and worked across several news programmes. He has also been a reporter and Editor for Investors Chronicle as well as an Economic Analyst for the Institute for Fiscal Studies. Mr Crooks graduated from Oxford University with a degree in Philosophy, Politics and Economics. He regularly appears on national and international TV and radio.

Bernard SheahanGlobal Director of Infrastructure and Natural ResourcesIFC

Bernard Sheahan is Global Director of Infrastructure and Natural Resources at IFC, the largest global development institution focused exclusively on the private sector. He is responsible for IFC’s investments in power, transport, utilities, and extractive industries.

Mr Sheahan joined IFC in 1986, and has previously served as Director of IFC’s Infrastructure Advisory Department and IFC’s Director of Strategy. He holds a Bachelor’s degree from Dartmouth College and an MBA from Harvard University.

HOSTS

BIOGRAPHIES

BIOGRAPHIES

SPEAKERS

Bader Saeed Al LamkiExecutive Director for Clean EnergyMasdar

Bader Saeed Al Lamki is responsible for steering and guiding the teams within Masdar Clean Energy to achieve performance excellence in all areas of investment, green field development and operations for large-scale Renewable Energy Utility Projects, Carbon Capture Utilisation and Storage, and Industrial Energy Efficiency solutions. He also oversees Masdar’s Special Projects

team and its growing portfolio of off-grid renewable energy projects in the MENA region and international markets. A UAE national, Mr Al Lamki brings 18 years of industry experience to Masdar Clean Energy having joined Masdar in February 2008. Earlier, he worked as Senior Project Manager with the Carbon Unit as well as in Masdar Power. Prior to Masdar, Mr Al Lamki led a multidisciplinary team on a strategic initiative at ADMA-OPCO that worked towards increasing oil production to nearly one million barrels per day. He has also worked for the French oil major Total, as Development Planning Engineer, conducting prospect evaluation for the ultradeep water (1,400 – 1,700 metre) oil reservoir (Block 32) in Angola. He was also involved in the NKOSSA field gas handling facilities for a de-bottlenecking project in Congo. Mr Al Lamki is currently the Chairman of Shams 1 Company, a joint venture between Masdar and Total. He also sits on the board of Torresol Company (Spain), Dudgeon (UK), as well as Tafila Company (Jordan). As a member of the SPE Industry / University Advisory Committee from 2006 – 2008, he contributed to enhancing the quality of University Faculty and advancement of R&D in the MENA region. He was also Co-Chairman of the Vision programme for the Abu Dhabi International Petroleum Exhibition and Conference (ADIPEC) 2012, 2013 and 2014. He also chaired the selection committee of Zayed Future Energy Prize (ZFEP) for three years from 2012-2014. Mr Al Lamki holds a Bachelor’s degree in Chemical Engineering from the UAE University.

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HE Dr Ibrahim BabelliActing Deputy Minister for Sectoral DevelopmentMinistry of Economy and Planning, Saudi Arabia

Ibrahim Babelli is the Acting Deputy Minister for Sectoral Development at the Ministry of Economy and Planning (MEP) in Saudi Arabia. He joined MEP after spending more than five years at King Abdullah City for Atomic and Renewable Energy (K.A.CARE) serving as the Renewable Energy Team Leader and Chief Strategist. In that dual capacity, Dr Babelli led the development of K.A.CARE’s

Strategy and Operating Model, including energy mix development, policy making, technology evaluation and selection and the development of regulatory and economical models necessary for the introduction of atomic and renewables to the energy landscape of Saudi Arabia. He also led the implementation of the renewable energy roadmap recommended by K.A.CARE. Prior to that, Dr Babelli served as the Executive Director of the National Industrial Development Program, and steered the development of the National Industrial Strategy and its Implementation Plans for Saudi Arabia. Dr Babelli has two patents in the oil industry. He is widely published on various topics, both in technical and non-technical fields.

BIOGRAPHIES

SPEAKERS

Patrick Allman-WardCEODana Gas Group

Patrick Allman-Ward is CEO of Dana Gas Group, a position he has held since September 2013. He is an accomplished international energy executive with over 35 years of experience in the oil and gas industry in many senior positions in locations all over the world, including the Middle East. Dr Allman-Ward joined Dana Gas in August 2012. He started his career at Shell in 1982, and

subsequently held senior management roles as Vice-President Exploration for Asia-Pacific, CEO and Board Member of the South Rub Al Khali Company, Vice-President of New Business Development in Saudi Arabia and New Ventures Execution Manager for Europe. Dr Allman-Ward studied Geology at Durham University and earned his PhD from the Royal School of Mines, Imperial College, University of London.

Sébastien ArbolaCEO, Middle East, South & Central Asia and TurkeyENGIE

Sébastien Arbola is the CEO of ENGIE Middle East, South & Central Asia and Turkey. He has worked in the ENGIE Group since 2006, starting as a Senior Finance Officer in the Merger & Acquisition (M&A) team in Paris, where he was in charge of the execution team managing the merger between Gaz de France (GDF) and SUEZ. In 2009, he joined the finance department as Head of M&A and,

in 2012, he became M&A Group Director for GDF SUEZ. In 2013, he moved to SUEZ Environment Asia, based in Singapore, as Chief Financial Officer and Senior Vice President in charge of Finance, Tax, Legal, Internal Control, IT and Procurement for the business unit. Mr Arbola started his career in 1999 at BNP Paribas as a Senior Front Officer in debt structuring, first in London and later in Paris. He is a graduate of Ecole Supérieure de Commerce de Paris, France.

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Mounir Bouaziz Vice President, Commercial/New Business Development South America & Africa; Country Chair Dubai and Northern EmiratesRoyal Dutch Shell

Mounir Bouaziz is Vice President, Commercial/New Business Development South America & Africa and Country Chair Dubai and Northern Emirates for Royal Dutch Shell. Mr Bouaziz has been with Royal Dutch Shell for 25 years. Prior to his current position, he was Vice President, Upstream International MENA from 2009, having previously been in charge of the gas businesses

in the Middle East and Latin America as part of Shell Gas and Power. Mr Bouaziz initially worked in Exploration and Production in Oman, the Netherlands and Gabon. He is a member of the Shell Commercial Academy as Commercial Deal Leader and a founding Board Member of (Junior Achievement) INJAZ-UAE. Mr Bouaziz obtained an Engineering degree from the French Grande L’Ecole Arts et Metier and an MBA from Webster University.

BIOGRAPHIES

SPEAKERS

Jessica BrewerPrincipal Analyst Middle East Upstream Oil and Gas Wood Mackenzie

Jessica Brewer is a Principal Analyst within Wood Mackenzie’s Middle East upstream research team. She leads Wood Mackenzie’s upstream research on Iraq, and has acted as country expert on several consultancy projects, covering upstream strategy and opportunity screening studies. As well as writing topical analysis, she has presented at conferences and appeared on TV and radio,

providing insight on the region’s oil and gas sector. She joined the company in 2012 and is based in Dubai. Ms Brewer has over 10 years of experience in the oil and gas sector. Prior to joining Wood Mackenzie, she worked as a Well Services Engineer with Schlumberger, located in Western Siberia, Sakhalin and the US Gulf of Mexico. She holds a MEng Mechanical Engineering degree from Imperial College London, a MSc Sustainable Energy degree from Imperial College London and a MSc in Energy, Trade and Finance from Cass Business School.

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Seb HenbestHead of EMEA, Lead Author – New Energy OutlookBloomberg New Energy Finance

Seb Henbest is Head of Europe, Middle East & Africa for Bloomberg New Energy Finance (BNEF) in London, overseeing the firm’s European power and carbon market analysis and the development of its EMEA business. He is also lead author of BNEF’s annual long-term power market forecast, the New Energy Outlook. From 2008 to 2012 Mr Henbest was Head of Research and Manager of BNEF

in Australia, establishing the firm’s Sydney offices. Mr Henbest writes on energy and carbon market economics and drives BNEF’s regional research agenda. He also contributes to third party publications such as the London School of Economics Business Review and the Lowy Interpreter. He is quoted widely in print media, and has appeared as an expert commentator on ABC TV, Sky News, ABC Radio, and Bloomberg TV. In 2012 he gave evidence to the House of Representatives Economics Committee in Australia on the pricing dynamics of linking Australia’s Carbon Price Mechanism with the EU Emissions Trading Scheme. He is a 2015 Rex J Lipman Fellow and has an advisory role with the GCC region Clean Energy Business Council. Mr Henbest is a physicist by training with degrees from Adelaide University and Monash, and read International Relations at Clare Hall, Cambridge, specialising in emissions trading and environmental markets.

BIOGRAPHIES

SPEAKERS

Arif Özozan Executive Vice President and Chief Operating OfficerGama Holding

Arif Özozan is the Executive Vice President and Chief Operating Officer of Gama Holding A.S. An experienced executive in the energy sector, Mr Özozan launched his career in Belgium at Unit International in 1993, and served as Assistant Project Finance Manager, Business Development Manager, Project Manager, and Project Director. In 2003, he was appointed as the Executive Board

Member of the company’s East Europe, Turkey, North Africa and Middle East Group. Mr Özozan joined Tynagh Energy Limited, Ireland, in 2004, where he assumed the post of CEO and Board Member and later became the Chairman of the Board. Between 2006 and 2010, he served as CEO and Board Member of Gama Enerji A.S. and was subsequently named as CEO of Zorlu Enerji A.S. In 2012 he was appointed as the CEO of Gama Enerji A.S., which is a joint venture equally owned by Gama Holding and General Electric Energy Financial Services. A.S. Mr Özozan graduated from Bilkent University with a degree in Electrical and Electronic Engineering in 1991, and earned his MBA at the Catholic University of Leuven in 1993. In 1995, Mr Özozan continued his postgraduate and doctoral studies at the Free University of Brussels in International Finance and Business Administration.

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Paddy PadmanathanPresident and CEOACWA Power

Paddy Padmanathan is President and CEO, ACWA Power. A professional Civil Engineer with over 35 years of experience, he has served ACWA Power since 2005 from its beginnings as a startup to where it is today; a leading private developer, owner andoperator of power generation and desalinated water production plants headquartered in Saudi Arabia. The company has an

investment value in excess of US$32bn and can generate 23+GW of power and produce 2.5 million m3/day of desalinated water to be delivered on a bulk basis to state utilities and industrial majors on long term off-take contracts under public-private-partnership, concession and utility services outsourcing models. A graduate of University of Manchester, UK, Mr Padmanathan started his career as a consulting engineer delivering infrastructure projects financed by the national treasuries and multilateral financial agencies and moved on to develop privately financed power, water and wastewater projects in over a dozen countries. A substantial period of his career before ACWA Power was with Black & Veatch, a US headquartered multinational engineering and construction company where he served as a Vice President and Corporate Officer. Mr Padmanathan also serves on the board of directors of several companies all operating in the water and power sectors.

Andrea PanizzoHead of Business Development, Europe and Middle EastEnel Green Power

Andrea Panizzo is Head of Business Development, Europe and Middle East in Enel Green Power, the Renewables Division of Enel S.p.A. He has held this position since October 2015 and leads a team of more than 40 people active in Italy, Spain, Germany, Sweden, Russia, Greece, Turkey, Saudi Arabia, Kuwait and UAE. Mr Panizzo joined Enel in 2008, working mainly in the

Business Development unit with responsibility for hydropower technologies development. Duties in this role included development and permitting of greenfield projects, participation in governmental tenders and M&A activities relating to projects and operating plants. Mr Panizzo is a Civil Hydraulic Engineer, with a PhD in Maritime Constructions.

BIOGRAPHIES

SPEAKERS

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Wiebke SchloemerRegional Industry Head, Infrastructure, Eastern Europe, Central Asia, Middle East & North AfricaIFC

Wiebke Schloemer is a proven emerging market financier, with over 20 years of experience in project/corporate finance and private equity in energy, transport, utilities and telecom/technology. Ms Schloemer currently heads IFC’s Infrastructure investments across Eastern Europe, Middle East and North Africa, managing investments of over US$5bn. Prior to this role, she led IFC’s

Infrastructure business in East Asia. She joined IFC in 2004 as an Investment Officer in the telecoms, media and technology (TMT) group in Washington, DC, and moved to IFC’s Istanbul office in 2009, to lead IFC’s TMT business in Eastern Europe and the MENA region. In 2011, she relocated to Hong Kong to manage IFC’s Infrastructure business in East Asia and the Pacific. She returned to Istanbul in 2014 to head the Infrastructure business for the EMENA region. Prior to joining IFC, Ms Schloemer was with the European Investment Bank in Luxembourg, and DEG, the German Investment Corporation, working on infrastructure debt and equity transactions in Africa, Asia and Eastern Europe. Ms Schloemer has a Master’s degree in Economics and Finance from the University of Goettingen in Germany and holds a Postgraduate degree in Development Policy from the German Development Institute.

BIOGRAPHIES

SPEAKERS

Saad ZamanHead of EnergyThe Abraaj Group

Saad Zaman is a Partner in the Energy Infrastructure Team based in Dubai. Prior to joining Abraaj Group, he was the Founder and CEO of Burj Capital, a Dubai-based investment firm with a focus on renewable power, including the development of wind and solar power projects in South Asia. Mr Zaman previously held leading roles at Citi and Dubai Islamic Bank Group (DIBG). At DIBG he was

the CEO of Investment Banking and International Business, where he was responsible for international footprint growth and managed the company’s USD 2bn investments and private equity platform. He led the establishment of Dubai Islamic Bank Pakistan and the acquisition of Bank of Khartoum in Sudan. Prior to joining DIBG, he headed the investment banking business for the Middle East and Levant at Citigroup in Dubai. He also served as Managing Director of Citi Islamic Investment Bank. Mr Zaman started his career at ANZ Grindlays Bank in 1991 and holds a Bachelor’s degree in Finance and Commerce.

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