Nevada Labor Market Briefing:May 2018

Summary of Labor Market Economic Indicators

Department of Employment, Training, & Rehabilitation

Don Soderberg, DirectorDennis Perea, Deputy DirectorDavid Schmidt, Chief Economist

Prepared by the Research and Analysis Bureau

May Employment: Slight Decline Over the Month

Total Employment of 1,374,200 in May1

Down 700 jobs over the month, 2-month gain still positive at 2,500

76,900 jobs above previous peak

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Total Nonfarm Employment

Annual Job Growth Dips Below Three Percent

The State added 37,400 jobs over the year in May, a gain of 2.8%1

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Nevada Job Growth vs. Year Ago

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Nevada’s Growth Continues to Outpace Nation

Nevada’s employment grew at an annual rate of 2.8% in May, compared to 1.6% in the nation as a whole1

Nevada’s job growth has outpaced the nation for 70 straight months

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Job Growth: NV vs. U.S.

Nevada U.S.

Nevada Maintains Highest Private Sector Job Growth in the U.S. Through 2017

Nevada led the nation in private-sector job growth in 2017

Employment up 38,600 from 2016, a growth rate of 3.4 percent

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U.S. Private Sector Growth Rankings

Nevada’s Small Businesses Continue Adding Jobs

As of 2017:IVQ, employment in Nevada’s small businesses totaled 632,000

28 consecutive quarters of annualized growth

Nearly 46,000 more jobs than previous peak in 2007 450,000

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jobs

Employment in Firms with Less Than 100 Employees

Year-to-Date Job Growth Across Nearly All Sectors

Manufacturing added 6,500 jobs through May, a gain of 14.3%1

Construction added 6,300 jobs or 7.8%

Ed/health services, trade/trans./utilities, and government each added 6,000 jobs

Information sector is down by 300

1 not seasonally adjusted

-1,000 0 1,000 2,000 3,000 4,000 5,000 6,000 7,000

Information

Mining & Logging

Financial Activities

Other Services

Leisure & Hospitality

Professional & Business Services

Government

Trade, Transportation, & Utilities

Education & Health Services

Construction

Manufacturing

YTD job growth

Nevada Nonfarm Job Growth by Industry

Construction Employment by Industry

Most construction employment in Nevada is at businesses that focus on a specific building trade.

Of general construction employment, Clark County tilts toward commercial construction, while other areas tilt toward residential.

Industry Clark County Washoe County All Other Counties Carson City Grand TotalPlumbing and HVAC Contractors 7,683 1,726 1,577 204 11,190 Electrical Contractors 7,841 1,726 447 10,014 Residential Building Construction 4,325 1,781 831 142 7,079 Commercial Building Construction 4,977 1,400 416 72 6,865 Drywall and Insulation Contractors 3,910 997 351 21 5,279 Framing Contractors 3,676 888 55 21 4,640 All Other Specialty Trade Contractors 2,531 704 390 56 3,681 Painting and Wall Covering Contractors 2,129 862 93 50 3,134 Site Preparation Contractors 1,570 809 520 76 2,975 Poured Concrete Structure Contractors 2,144 666 137 24 2,971 Highway, Street, and Bridge Construction 1,707 1,034 103 2,844 Masonry Contractors 2,229 451 73 61 2,814 Roofing Contractors 1,444 612 87 36 2,179 Tile and Terrazzo Contractors 1,551 306 74 39 1,970 Flooring Contractors 1,433 484 21 1,938 Water and Sewer System Construction 1,422 310 183 1,915 Other Building Finishing Contractors 1,690 114 6 1,810 Finish Carpentry Contractors 1,496 248 15 1,759 Power/Communication System Construction 1,006 81 179 1,266 Other Building Equipment Contractors 882 250 80 1,212 Glass and Glazing Contractors 821 135 24 74 1,054 Steel and Precast Concrete Contractors 821 118 41 980 Oil and Gas Pipeline Construction 619 42 153 814 Other Building Exterior Contractors 479 18 497 Other Heavy Construction 340 30 370 Land Subdivision 248 22 270 Industrial Building Construction 71 71 Siding Contractors 21 28 49 Grand Total 59,066 15,842 5,703 1,029 81,640

May 2018 Unemployment Rate: 4.8%

0.1 point decline is first in ten months1

Down from 5.1% a year ago

Peaked at 13.7% during the recession

Gap between Nevada and the nation steady at one percentage point in May1 seasonally adjusted

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Unemployment Rate: Nevada vs. U.S.

Nevada U.S.

Jobless Rate for Teens and Young Adults Now Below Pre-recession Level

Among unemployed teens and young adults 16-24 years old:• 26.6% have less than

a High School diploma

• 48.4% have a High School diploma

• 22.4% have some college or associate degree,

• 2.6% have a Bachelor’s degree or higher

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Unemployment Rates by Age Group in Nevada

16-24 25-34 35-44 45-54 55+ total rate

Alternative Measures of Labor UnderutilizationMost measures of unemployment are at or near 2003 levels.

U-1: Unemployed 15 weeks or moreU-2: Job LosersU-3: Similar to official rateU-4: U-3 plus discouraged workers.U-5: U-4 plus other marginally attached to labor force.

Involuntary Part-Time Employment Levels of involuntary part-time employment remain high, but have been falling since late 2010.

People who are employed part-time, but would prefer full-time employment if it were available.

Full Time Employment in Nevada Reaches a New All Time High

1,112,190 Nevadans are employed full time (working 35 hours or more per week), a record high

299,210 Nevadans are employed part time

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Full Time and Part Time Employment in Nevada

full time part time

Average Weekly Wages Reach New High

As of 2017:IVQ, average weekly wages reached a record-high of $955

An increase of $31 or 3.3% over the year

Wages have increased 6.2% since 2014, while consumer prices grew by just 4.3% over the same period

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Average Weekly Wages in Nevada

percentage change average weekly wage

National Data on Full-Time / Part-Time WagesSource: Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta, Macroblog

This larger gap (between full-time wage changes and part-time wage changes) appears to be attributable to a rise in the share of part-time employment in low-skilled jobs since the recession.

In particular, relative to 2007, the share of part-time workers in the Wage Growth Tracker data in low-skilled jobs has increased by about 3 percentage points, whereas the share of full-time workers in low-skilled jobs has remained essentially unchanged.

http://macroblog.typepad.com/macroblog/2018/06/part-time-workers-are-less-likely-to-get-a-pay-raise.html

National Data on Drivers of Wage GrowthSource: Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta, Macroblog

Although wages haven't been rising faster for the median individual, they have been for those who switch jobs. This distinction is important because the wage growth of job-switchers tends to be a better cyclical indicator than overall wage growth. In particular, the median wage growth of people who change industry or occupation tends to rise more rapidly as the labor market tightens.

Changing industry when unemployment is high tends to result in a wage growth penalty relative to those who remain employed in the same industry. But when the unemployment rate is low, voluntary quits rise and workers who change industries tend to experience higher wage growth than those who stay.

The wage growth performance for those changing jobs suggests… the labor market is continuing to gradually tighten.

http://macroblog.typepad.com/macroblog/2018/04/hitting-a-cyclical-high-the-wage-growth-premium-from-changing-jobs.html

Initial Claims for Unemployment Insurance

9,800 initial claims in May, down two percent over the month

Decline of three percent from the previous year

Maximum weekly benefit amount for FY 2019 set at $450 0

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Initial Claims for Unemployment Insurance

claims 12-month moving average

Employment Changes Since Recession by AreaLas Vegas is the only area to have passed its prerecession employment peak.

The Reno and Carson City MSAs are growing at a faster pace than Las Vegas, and are both within 1% of prerecession levels.

Nevada’s Economy: GDP GrowthNevada’s gross domestic product (GDP) totaled over $131 billion (in 2009 $s) in 2017:IVQ

Nevada’s GDP growth, at 4.2% in 2017:IVQ, has exceeded the nation’s for six consecutive quarters

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Nevada's Gross Domestic Product

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Nevada Private Sector Business Establishment Openings

Nevada added 4,200 new business establishments during 2017:IIIQ

Openings have exceeded 4,000 in each of the past six quarters

Openings are exceeding the pace of the US as a whole.

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Business Establishment Openings

Nevada U.S.

Nevada’s Retail EmploymentNevada’s retail trade employment more than doubled from 1990 to 2018

Strongest gain in the nation

Clothing and accessories stores saw the largest gain, followed by general merchandise stores

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Retail Trade Growth: Nevada vs. U.S.

Nevada U.S.

Measures of Nevada’s Economy: Personal IncomePersonal Income in Nevada has risen in 30 of the past 31 quarters.

In the fourth quarter of 2017, Nevada’s growth rate of 6.4% was the strongest in the nation.

Personal income is the income received by all persons from all sources: net earnings, property income, and personal current transfer receipts.

Measures of Nevada’s Economy: Personal Income

Per Capita Personal Income, calculated using 2016 data, shows that there is significant variation in personal income between Nevada’s counties.

Douglas County, with the highest per capita personal income of over $65,000 is more than double that in Pershing and Lincoln counties.

County 2016 Personal Income 2016 Population Per Capita Personal Income, 2016Douglas, NV 3,145,049.00$ 48,020 65,494.56$ White Pine, NV 400,216.00$ 6,982 57,321.11$ Lander, NV 303,714.00$ 5,702 53,264.47$ Washoe, NV 22,549,907.00$ 453,616 49,711.45$ Elko, NV 2,392,716.00$ 52,168 45,865.59$ Humboldt, NV 739,086.00$ 16,842 43,883.51$ Storey, NV 174,474.00$ 4,051 43,069.37$ Carson City, NV 2,351,420.00$ 54,742 42,954.59$ Clark, NV 91,150,359.00$ 2,155,664 42,284.12$ Esmeralda, NV 33,296.00$ 790 42,146.84$ Mineral, NV 180,158.00$ 4,449 40,494.04$ Churchill, NV 913,968.00$ 24,198 37,770.39$ Nye, NV 1,549,949.00$ 43,423 35,694.19$ Eureka, NV 65,482.00$ 1,917 34,158.58$ Lyon, NV 1,787,910.00$ 53,179 33,620.60$ Pershing, NV 201,808.00$ 6,560 30,763.41$ Lincoln, NV 150,121.00$ 5,055 29,697.53$

For Additional Information, Please Contact:

Nevada Department of Employment, Training and RehabilitationResearch and Analysis Bureau

David SchmidtChief Economist

deschmidt@nvdetr.org

Christopher RobisonSupervising Economistc-robison@nvdetr.org

(775) 684-0450http://www.nevadaworkforce.com